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Gio, Sweeney, DLS


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Gio's the safest bet to have the most success if you were going to pick someone right now.

 

However, he COULD end up being the worst player of the 3 dealt (which would be a terrible scenario for the Sox, but we'll have to wait around 5 years to find that out).

 

And would I believe Harold Reynolds? No.

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QUOTE(RockRaines @ Jan 6, 2008 -> 05:56 PM)
Or Gio who is one of the top 50 prospects in all of baseball, but they wanted our prospect who on most teams wouldnt crack the top ten. Makes sense.

I would hope that for Oakland's sake they don't have to consult Baseball Prospectus before making any trades. Maybe they felt Sweeney was as close to a sure thing as they would get from the Sox, but wouldn't do the deal unless they could pick up a couple stud pitching prospects in addition? That sounds logical to me.

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QUOTE(Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 7, 2008 -> 01:01 AM)
I would hope that for Oakland's sake they don't have to consult Baseball Prospectus before making any trades. Maybe they felt Sweeney was as close to a sure thing as they would get from the Sox, but wouldn't do the deal unless they could pick up a couple stud pitching prospects in addition? That sounds logical to me.

A prospect that wouldnt crack most teams top ten is the most sure thing? Please get me some of whatever you are drinking.

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QUOTE(RockRaines @ Jan 7, 2008 -> 04:13 PM)
A prospect that wouldnt crack most teams top ten is the most sure thing? Please get me some of whatever you are drinking.

And how would you know that he wouldn't crack the top ten of most teams? Because some baseball writers would say so?

 

Maybe Oakland's people think Sweeney is a sure-fire bet to have success while many of the other top prospects mentioned around baseball are big injury risks, or have no plate discipline, or are minor league overachievers, etc. Just because Sox fans like Gio and DLS more doesn't mean Oakland does. I'm sure Oakland really likes those guys, but it's entirely possible they see Sweeney as the best player in the deal.

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QUOTE(BureauEmployee171 @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 02:28 PM)
As I've said before - why does everyone put such faith in BaseballAmerican/Baseball Prospectus when determining any teams true top 10 list? The only things they get right are the #1 (which are generally without doubt), and sometimes the #2. From #3 on, they're generally catastrophically wrong. I've said in previous posts as to why - but to make a long story short - they must take into account minor league statistics which are in many cases very horrible mis-representations of a player's true performance ability in the future. Many players in MILB are not allowed to use their plus tool in game situations - such as speed for a baserunner, or their #1 pitch as a pitcher, etc. And many, many, many true prospects are told to work on simply one thing during an at-bat to get the most out of their development - meaning - sometimes players (and this is ONLY for true prospects - as fringe players are allowed to play the game at their top level to 'prove' that they can be considered prospects - as prospects are 'known' to have an ability set and are told to work on other phases of their game) - but many times prospects are told during an at bat that they are not allowed to swing during the at bat until they get the certain pitch they must learn to hit - i.e. a player (maybe Sweeney? wink wink) is not allowed to swing the bat until he gets a hard fastball on the inner half to practice on using loft power to the pull side & he must wait until he has 2 strikes to swing if he doesn't get the inside fastball on the first 2 strikes. A player such as Ryan Sweeney could and would dominate the inferior MILB pitching if he used his strengths during each AB, but this would actually stunt his projection level as he would need to be able to adjust to his weaknesses at the MLB level. This is why "prospects" generally will have such "poor statistics". They are told that they cannot use their strengths during ABs in many cases - because they must learn to adjust to their weaknesses. Undoubtably this is going to have a negative effect on his 'statistics' - but the actual scouts and true-professional player development personnel know this and do not take all statistics into account. Billy Beane has MANY of these people working for him at the Player Development level. They have what may be the top of the line in player development from top to bottom. He does not employ "scouts" who are his "friends", etc. He does not like to spend money on scouts, therefore - the scouts he has and the player development staff he has - is all of the professional level. So, once again, PLEASE DON'T look at any statistics as the basis for a top 10 list. BaseballAmerica could not print this stuff and remain credible in the eyes of the 'casual fan' - because how can you say a player that hits .265-10 HR is better than a player who hits .315-17 HR who is only one level below, etc.? You can't. No casual fan would understand this and therefore - you would not be generating the profit BaseballAmerica is selling to causal, and even avid follwers of the game. Never, ever, ever use MILB statistics for YOUNG players as an indicator as to their future worth. These players (who are prospects), are generally ALWAYS being told to work on one phase of their game at a time until they master it - and with very talented athletes that comes relatively quickly - but generally takes an entire season or 2 to go through all the phases they need to work on. Keep that in mind when reading on top 10 lists. Only look at the #1 prospect, and in SOME cases the #2. From there on, none of the casual, avid, intense, or even crazy fans can truly know what prospects are ACTUALLY prospects. Why? Because the stats don't always correlate to who is a 'prospect' and who is not. "Prospects" are told to work on certain phases of their game - which generally NEGATE their statitics thru the seasons. "Non-prospects" are told to go full steam ahead to try to 'prove & gain prospect status thru their abilities, instincts, etc.

 

I'm so glad to you are here at Soxtalk. Just saying.

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So Bureau, would Egbert be a fringe prospect, in that he had to use all he had to put up the stats that he did? I know you say not to look at stats but he really doesnt have overpowering stuff but still seems to get guys out with the sinker, is this guy a real prospect or what?

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QUOTE(BureauEmployee171 @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 02:28 PM)
As I've said before...

 

We have been waiting for you. Thanks for finally debunking the MiLB stats. Anything you can say about Gio's supposed dominance at AA or DLS being the second coming of Johan? Also, are you at liberty to comment overall on the trade itself? I like Swisher but some in the local media are saying the casual fan is shortsighted and doesn't realize how it is setting the White Sox organization back. Would like to hear anything you can share.

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QUOTE(Hatchetman @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 03:07 PM)
It's scary that Phil Rogers does the BA top ten. That guy is clueless.

 

I believe it was Phil who criticized the "shortsightedness" of any fans that liked the Swisher trade and lamented how much further KW set the Sox back this year. He sucks monkey butt.

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QUOTE(BureauEmployee171 @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 02:28 PM)
As I've said before - why does everyone put such faith in BaseballAmerican/Baseball Prospectus when determining any teams true top 10 list? The only things they get right are the #1 (which are generally without doubt), and sometimes the #2. From #3 on, they're generally catastrophically wrong. I've said in previous posts as to why - but to make a long story short - they must take into account minor league statistics which are in many cases very horrible mis-representations of a player's true performance ability in the future. Many players in MILB are not allowed to use their plus tool in game situations - such as speed for a baserunner, or their #1 pitch as a pitcher, etc. And many, many, many true prospects are told to work on simply one thing during an at-bat to get the most out of their development - meaning - sometimes players (and this is ONLY for true prospects - as fringe players are allowed to play the game at their top level to 'prove' that they can be considered prospects - as prospects are 'known' to have an ability set and are told to work on other phases of their game) - but many times prospects are told during an at bat that they are not allowed to swing during the at bat until they get the certain pitch they must learn to hit - i.e. a player (maybe Sweeney? wink wink) is not allowed to swing the bat until he gets a hard fastball on the inner half to practice on using loft power to the pull side & he must wait until he has 2 strikes to swing if he doesn't get the inside fastball on the first 2 strikes. A player such as Ryan Sweeney could and would dominate the inferior MILB pitching if he used his strengths during each AB, but this would actually stunt his projection level as he would need to be able to adjust to his weaknesses at the MLB level. This is why "prospects" generally will have such "poor statistics". They are told that they cannot use their strengths during ABs in many cases - because they must learn to adjust to their weaknesses. Undoubtably this is going to have a negative effect on his 'statistics' - but the actual scouts and true-professional player development personnel know this and do not take all statistics into account. Billy Beane has MANY of these people working for him at the Player Development level. They have what may be the top of the line in player development from top to bottom. He does not employ "scouts" who are his "friends", etc. He does not like to spend money on scouts, therefore - the scouts he has and the player development staff he has - is all of the professional level. So, once again, PLEASE DON'T look at any statistics as the basis for a top 10 list. BaseballAmerica could not print this stuff and remain credible in the eyes of the 'casual fan' - because how can you say a player that hits .265-10 HR is better than a player who hits .315-17 HR who is only one level below, etc.? You can't. No casual fan would understand this and therefore - you would not be generating the profit BaseballAmerica is selling to causal, and even avid follwers of the game. Never, ever, ever use MILB statistics for YOUNG players as an indicator as to their future worth. These players (who are prospects), are generally ALWAYS being told to work on one phase of their game at a time until they master it - and with very talented athletes that comes relatively quickly - but generally takes an entire season or 2 to go through all the phases they need to work on. Keep that in mind when reading on top 10 lists. Only look at the #1 prospect, and in SOME cases the #2. From there on, none of the casual, avid, intense, or even crazy fans can truly know what prospects are ACTUALLY prospects. Why? Because the stats don't always correlate to who is a 'prospect' and who is not. "Prospects" are told to work on certain phases of their game - which generally NEGATE their statitics thru the seasons. "Non-prospects" are told to go full steam ahead to try to 'prove & gain prospect status thru their abilities, instincts, etc.

 

You must really hate Bill James' theories.

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QUOTE(Markbilliards @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 03:19 PM)
So what pitchers do the White Sox have that we could be excited about now?

Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Andrew Sisco, Lance Broadway, Charlie Haeger, and down the line Aaron Poreda. Adam Russell out of the bullpen.

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QUOTE(SoxAce @ Jan 8, 2008 -> 09:08 PM)
Not a pitcher. :P

I would say the true stud will be in a few years (read first name on the bottom of mah sig) or unless we draft a pitcher this year with high upside.

Maybe I'm still crazy, but I think that between Egbert, Broadway, and Sisco, I'm betting we'll feel we have 1 more MLB ready starter by the end of this year who'll wind up being better than we think when he does come up.

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