New Hampshire Primary Thread

[HuskyCaucasian]

Remember, NV is a caucus. So, you could see something similar to what happened in Iowa were people flip to Obama Edwards as a second choice.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Hillary was thought to be too cold and unlikeable - so she has now "transformed" herself to be softer, more heartfelt, in her speeches. I watched her last night after the win, and sure enough, she changed her whole demeanor - her tone and pitch of speech, her body language, even her hair and makeup. She is a master and playing the game.

I dont want my president "faking" her image to get elected. THat is not acceptable to me. She is who she is. We have seen her for almost a year. This not her, this is an image.

[Texsox]

I dont want my president "faking" her image to get elected. THat is not acceptable to me. She is who she is. We have seen her for almost a year. This not her, this is an image.

 

No one has a natural "image" that we want as President. The "Presidential" act or persona can not be carried around 24/7. So we watch as they each audition for the role.

[Controlled Chaos]

So does anyone think her breaking down a little yesterday actually helped her win this primary?

 

I mean just going on the polls and the talk on here, you would have thought Obama was about a 75% favorite going into tonight, with the momentum all on his side from Iowa.

 

I guess the 2 idiots who suggested for her to "iron their shirts" didn't really do Obama a favor either.

Of course it helped her. First you have the people that believe she faked it(me)...well those people we're never going to her side anyway so she loses nothing with them. The other people...be it people on the fence, people wanting to see her soft side, women feeling her plight(I also love the guy that had a sign saying iron my shirt and started chanting it in her speeech, brilliant plant IMO) and also the people that just don't care about politics, but now felt bad for her....that breakdown could have swayed any of those groups.

 

Hell her senior adviser said this: Asked if that tearful moment helped win the women's vote in New Hampshire, Clinton's senior adviser Ann Lewis said: "I know it, but I can't prove it."

Edited January 9, 2008 by Controlled Chaos

[YASNY]

Of course it helped her. First you have the people that believe she faked it(me)...well those people we're never going to her side anyway so she loses nothing with them. The other people...be it people on the fence, people wanting to see her soft side, women feeling her plight(I also love the guy that had a sign saying iron my shirt and started chanting it in her speeech, brilliant plant IMO) and also the people that just don't care about politics, but now felt bad for her....that breakdown could have swayed any of those groups.

 

Hell her senior adviser said this: Asked if that tearful moment helped win the women's vote in New Hampshire, Clinton's senior adviser Ann Lewis said: "I know it, but I can't prove it."

 

First thing. It should be well known around here by now that I can't stand Hillary. I don't think she faked it. Just saying.

 

Second thing. If you think the iron my shirt thing is a brilliant plan, that says you think it's a good idea to degrade women and place them in a subserviant role. You are making your party proud, I'm sure.

 

Third thing. I can't believe I'm even half ass defending Hillary.

 

[Controlled Chaos]

First thing. It should be well known around here by now that I can't stand Hillary. I don't think she faked it. Just saying.

 

Second thing. If you think the iron my shirt thing is a brilliant plan, that says you think it's a good idea to degrade women and place them in a subserviant role. You are making your party proud, I'm sure.

 

Third thing. I can't believe I'm even half ass defending Hillary.

Brilliant planT YAS, not plan. As in they put him in the audience. And I respect your right to not believe she faked it, but their whole strategy was for her to show her softer side in NH and all of a sudden she loses it? We are talking about Hillary Clinton here...everything she does is calculated and thought out? She didn't even lose it when her husband was playing hide the cigar with his intern and she isn't going to lose it now in the biggest event of her life unless she wants to. She did what she needed to do...and maintained enough composure to get her digs in....well played I say.

[YASNY]

Brilliant planT YAS, not plan. As in they put him in the audience. And I respect your right to not believe she faked it, but their whole strategy was for her to show her softer side in NH and all of a sudden she loses it? We are talking about Hillary Clinton here...everything she does is calculated and thought out? She didn't even lose it when her husband was playing hide the cigar with his intern and she isn't going to lose it now in the biggest event of her life unless she wants to. She did what she needed to do...and maintained enough composure to get her digs in....well played I say.

 

Plant? Well, I'll be damned. Appropriate apologies extended.

[Reddy]

I don't see that at all. Edwards is specific about his history and his upbringing, and about random people suffering, but he says absolutely nothing about policy. Obama is far more specific on that than Edwards or Clinton. The only candidate left for the Dems who is more specific on issues than Obama is Richardson.

 

do you realize how horribly backwards that is???? Obama the king of rhetoric? Edwards had an 80 page policy book out months before Obama got his little pamphlet together.

[Reddy]

Balta, this doesn't win it for Hillary any more than Iowa won it for Obama. MI is irrelevant (as Rex said), so SC and NV are big. If Clinton sweeps those, then I think Obama is on the ropes. If Obama wins both, Clinton is on the ropes. A split means Super Tuesday is really fun.

 

By the way, that huge lead she had nationally (for Super Tuesday)? Going... gone. Super Tuesday is very much an open question.

 

but now Obama's gonna have a harder time swinging the black vote in SC - they LOVE the Clintons and now they have a reason to vote for them. Also, it's proof of how much implicit racism still exists. In a caucus that disappears because you have to stand in front of your friends and say whom you support. In a primary it's you alone with your thoughts. In canvassing I met people who said "my dad doesnt think a black man should be president". yeah... you're dad AND you. It's real and it's gonna get MORE real in the south. I really don't think Obama can win this thing.

 

and as for Edwards - he's gonna stay in till the convention. He's not far behind on delegates right now and he's gonna have leverage that way. And I'm all for it. I'd rather have Hillary be the nom than Obama so I love that he'll help keep Obama down. Obama wouldn't win against McCain in November. Obama wouldn't win against Huckabee. Not ONLY is he black but the GOP doesn't play nice - they'd rip him apart. Then when he tries to fight back he'll mess up his "nice guy" image. He's screwed.

[NorthSideSox72]

do you realize how horribly backwards that is???? Obama the king of rhetoric? Edwards had an 80 page policy book out months before Obama got his little pamphlet together.

They both have policy "books" out there, as do other candidates to varying extents. They also both make short speeches, like last night, that don't go into specifics. But the in between stuff - debates, longer speeches - Obama has been much more specific than Edwards. This is my observation.

 

[Reddy]

They both have policy "books" out there, as do other candidates to varying extents. They also both make short speeches, like last night, that don't go into specifics. But the in between stuff - debates, longer speeches - Obama has been much more specific than Edwards. This is my observation.

 

hm. ok.

[NorthSideSox72]

but now Obama's gonna have a harder time swinging the black vote in SC - they LOVE the Clintons and now they have a reason to vote for them. Also, it's proof of how much implicit racism still exists. In a caucus that disappears because you have to stand in front of your friends and say whom you support. In a primary it's you alone with your thoughts. In canvassing I met people who said "my dad doesnt think a black man should be president". yeah... you're dad AND you. It's real and it's gonna get MORE real in the south. I really don't think Obama can win this thing.

 

and as for Edwards - he's gonna stay in till the convention. He's not far behind on delegates right now and he's gonna have leverage that way. And I'm all for it. I'd rather have Hillary be the nom than Obama so I love that he'll help keep Obama down. Obama wouldn't win against McCain in November. Obama wouldn't win against Huckabee. Not ONLY is he black but the GOP doesn't play nice - they'd rip him apart. Then when he tries to fight back he'll mess up his "nice guy" image. He's screwed.

Your views on elections in November seem to be the opposite of reality. Obama has better head-to-head numbers than everyone else in the field. He is beating everyone GOP by a wide margin, except McCain, who he is close with. Edwards is behind Giuliani and close with McCain. And actually, both of them do better than Hillary. So its not Edwards-Clinton-Obama in electability - its Obama-Edwards-Clinton.

 

As for racism, I don't doubt it will play a role - but as Obama is well ahead in SC polls, I think at the very least, its not going to keep him from winning. Other factors will be more important.

 

And what makes you think SC loves the Clintons?

 

[Texsox]

As for racism, I don't doubt it will play a role -

 

Isn't that a shame? I agree with your assessment, but God help us for judging a candidate for reasons unrelated to their abilities in fulfilling their Oath of Office.

[NorthSideSox72]

Isn't that a shame? I agree with your assessment, but God help us for judging a candidate for reasons unrelated to their abilities in fulfilling their Oath of Office.

And in both directions. In every state, but sadly more so in the south, there will be an element of racism that will hurt Obama, and Richardson. But, and probably just as bad, there are some in SC who will vote for Obama because he IS black. It shouldn't matter, but it does, to some folks.

 

The one good thing from all this is that it clearly matters to a lot fewer people than it did a few decades ago - otherwise Obama would not be in it.

 

[Controlled Chaos]

Isn't that a shame? I agree with your assessment, but God help us for judging a candidate for reasons unrelated to their abilities in fulfilling their Oath of Office.

It's sad, but such ridiculous things have always been the basis for a lot of ignorant voters. Some vote based on a canidates exposure. Some vote based on a canidates appearance. Some vote based on how they speak. Some vote based on religion. Some vote for a canidate just because someone told them to. Some will not vote for Obama just because he is Black. Some will vote for Obama just because he's Black. Some will vote for Hillary just because she is a woman. Some will not vote for Hillary just because she is a woman.

 

It's all the same load of crap and has been going on forever. If I had to give my own guesstimate I'd say maybe 50-60% of voters vote with an informed mind.

Edited January 9, 2008 by Controlled Chaos

[Texsox]

And in both directions. In every state, but sadly more so in the south, there will be an element of racism that will hurt Obama, and Richardson. But, and probably just as bad, there are some in SC who will vote for Obama because he IS black. It shouldn't matter, but it does, to some folks.

 

The one good thing from all this is that it clearly matters to a lot fewer people than it did a few decades ago - otherwise Obama would not be in it.

 

Looking over the list of black congressional members, the South does seem to have elected more black members than the north. I'm not certain that in today's south, it will be any better or worse for him.

[kapkomet]

It's sad, but such ridiculous things have always been the basis for a lot of ignorant voters. Some vote based on a canidates exposure. Some vote based on a canidates appearance. Some vote based on how they speak. Some vote based on religion. Some vote for a canidate just because someone told them to. Some will not vote for Obama just because he is Black. Some will vote for Obama just because he's Black. Some will vote for Hillary just because she is a woman. Some will not vote for Hillary just because she is a woman.

 

It's all the same load of crap and has been going on forever. If I had to give my own guesstimate I'd say maybe 50-60% of voters vote with an informed mind.

And I say that you're about 25-35% too high on that number. Which is VERY sad.

[NorthSideSox72]

Looking over the list of black congressional members, the South does seem to have elected more black members than the north. I'm not certain that in today's south, it will be any better or worse for him.

I tend to agree - I think the two factors I noted sort of balance each other out at this point (more or less).

 

My predictions have been on and off so far, but, here goes...

 

--Clinton's "new" image will win a few hearts and minds, but repel some others. Overall net effect will be slightly positive.

 

--Obama will make slight changes too - more about hope than change, and more substantive speeches - less flowery ones.

 

--Obama's large lead in SC polls won't hold entirely, but it will hold enough, and he'll beat out Clinton by 5 points or so in SC on the 19th.

 

--Edwards will recover a bit of strength in SC with the week and a half to be there, but still not get better than 20%, and will be well down into 3rd place.

 

--Nevada I need to see polls on, but, given Obama's flash-and-dash abilities when needed, and some big union endorsements, and a few other big names (John Kerry) that will be announced with him soon, he'll be competitive there. Clinton has the Reid machine at her disposal though. I think Nevada will be very close - too close for me to even guess.

 

--I give a 1-in-3 chance that Edwards drops out after SC/NV (he won't show well in NV). If he does and endorses either candidate, at that point, his endorsed candidate has about a 90% chance of winning the nomination. But if he doesn't...

 

--That leaves just Florida before Super Tuesday (among states that count - Michigan has been left out because of their screw-up). Clinton had a huge lead there for some time, hovering around 20 to 30 points, in polls through early December. But the only one published since then, which was done after Iowa (on 1/7), shows that lead cut to 7. So Florida is huge. Assuming Edwards is still in it, the winner of Florida becomes the clear favorite going into Super Tuesday.

 

--One more small wrench - Bill Richardson. He's only drawing about 5% now in most states - less than that in SC, but more in NV probably. But even that 5% could be a big difference. If he drops out and endorses someone prior to Super Tuesday, that could be the difference-maker in states like NV and FL, both of which he should play well in.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

--That leaves just Florida before Super Tuesday (among states that count - Michigan has been left out because of their screw-up). Clinton had a huge lead there for some time, hovering around 20 to 30 points, in polls through early December. But the only one published since then, which was done after Iowa (on 1/7), shows that lead cut to 7. So Florida is huge. Assuming Edwards is still in it, the winner of Florida becomes the clear favorite going into Super Tuesday.

Florida doesnt count. They were stripped of their delegates and few are on the ballot. Clinton i believe is still on it (probably just to get some pub for winning a state, even if it isnt contested)

[NorthSideSox72]

Florida doesnt count. They were stripped of their delegates and few are on the ballot. Clinton i believe is still on it (probably just to get some pub for winning a state, even if it isnt contested)

Oh, I knew about Michigan, but I wasn't aware of Florida. Interesting. Thanks.

 

[Balta1701]

It's sad, but such ridiculous things have always been the basis for a lot of ignorant voters. Some vote based on a canidates exposure. Some vote based on a canidates appearance. Some vote based on how they speak. Some vote based on religion. Some vote for a canidate just because someone told them to. Some will not vote for Obama just because he is Black. Some will vote for Obama just because he's Black. Some will vote for Hillary just because she is a woman. Some will not vote for Hillary just because she is a woman.

 

It's all the same load of crap and has been going on forever. If I had to give my own guesstimate I'd say maybe 50-60% of voters vote with an informed mind.

OPINION By JON A. KROSNICK, Professor, Stanford University

 

Without a doubt, a big source of the discrepancy between the pre-election surveys and the election outcome in New Hampshire is the order of candidates' names on the ballot and in the surveys.

Story

 

Our analysis of all recent primaries in New Hampshire showed that there was always a big primacy effect — big-name, big-vote-getting candidates got 3 percent or more votes more when listed first on the ballot than when listed last.

 

Until this year, New Hampshire rotated candidate name order from precinct to precinct, which allowed us to do that analysis.

 

This year, the secretary of state changed the procedure so the names were alphabetical starting with a randomly selected letter, in all precincts.

 

The randomly selected letter this year was Z.

 

As a result, Joe Biden was first on every ballot, Hillary Clinton was near the top of the list (and the first serious contender listed) and Barack Obama was close to last of the 21 candidates listed.

 

Thus, I'll bet that Clinton got at least 3 percent more votes than Obama simply because she was listed close to the top.

 

Most, if not all, of the pre-election telephone polls rotated name order from respondent to respondent, which meant name order did not distort their overall results. Failing to incorporate the name order effect that probably happened in the voting booth is therefore probably partly responsible for the polls' inaccuracy.

Content

How New Hampshire Turned the Tables

 

More importantly, if New Hampshire had rotated name order in the voting booth as it has always done in the past, the race would probably have been too close to call without a recount and might even have been an Obama victory.

ABC News

[HuskyCaucasian]

ABC News

hmmm.... very interesting! I have always thought order on a ballot means something. People who are uncommitted might just pick the first name they recognize.

[StrangeSox]

On NPR, anecdotally, a lot of independents chose to vote for McCain instead of Obama because of Obama's perceived large lead.

[Balta1701]

On NPR, anecdotally, a lot of independents chose to vote for McCain instead of Obama because of Obama's perceived large lead.

IMO, Obama's only chance from this point on is if Indy's and everyone on the Dem side who is anti-Hillary rallies around him. I'm just not sure it's enough.

[HuskyCaucasian]

On NPR, anecdotally, a lot of independents chose to vote for McCain instead of Obama because of Obama's perceived large lead.

I figured that would be the case