Tigers not a lock for AL Central title

[southsider2k5]

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article...1/1050/SPORTS01

 

AL CENTRAL RACE: Why Tigers are far from a lock to win division

January 10, 2008

 

JON PAUL MOROSI

 

INSIDE THE TIGERS

 

The presidential races and American League Central have something in common: Neither has been kind to front-runners.

 

The past three popular picks to win the division -- the 2005 Minnesota Twins, the 2006 Chicago White Sox and the 2007 Tigers -- failed to make the playoffs, a caveat to those with ironclad opinions on how the season will unfold.

 

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As Rick Hahn, the White Sox assistant general manager, said Wednesday: "You can't count on a nine-point lead the day before the primary."

 

In all seriousness, though, who is the favorite to win the AL Central in 2008?

 

Tigers president/general manager Dave Dombrowski pointed to the Cleveland Indians, the defending division champions who fell one victory shy of the World Series.

 

"Cleveland has to be the favorite," Dombrowski said Wednesday. "They won the division. They have basically the same club coming back, and they made an addition to their bullpen with (Masahide) Kobayashi, who's a quality pitcher."

 

Yet others in the industry believe the Tigers will become the fourth team in as many years to win the AL Central. The Free Press polled major league scouts and executives this week, and 14 of the 18 respondents picked the Tigers to finish first. The other four chose Cleveland, largely because of the Indians' strong rotation.

 

But if recent history is any guide, an unheralded team will enter the race.

 

Four clubs from the division have reached the playoffs the past three seasons -- a first in the wild-card-era American League.

 

"That," Dombrowski said, "tells you how balanced this division is."

 

The AL Central is better now than it was in 2005, when the White Sox won the World Series, and also has improved since the end of last season.

 

For their part, the Tigers added All-Stars at third base (Miguel Cabrera), shortstop (Edgar Renteria) and on the mound (Dontrelle Willis), as well as veteran outfielder Jacque Jones.

 

"On paper, it (the division) is much stronger than it was at this time last year," Kansas City general manager Dayton Moore said, "and certainly Dave Dombrowski has a lot to do with that."

 

The Twins and Royals added middle-of-the-order hitters in outfielders Delmon Young and Jose Guillen, respectively, while the White Sox landed shortstop Orlando Cabrera and outfielder Nick Swisher in two trades.

 

Tigers manager Jim Leyland predicted at the end of last season that Chicago would be a much improved team in 2008. ("You can mark my words," he said then.) He may be right. Cabrera, a two-time Gold Glove winner, batted .301 for the Angels last year, and Swisher should provide the combination of patience and power the White Sox lacked in 2007.

 

"For them to get (Orlando) Cabrera was as big as us getting Renteria," said Tigers assistant GM Al Avila. "And now they've got Swisher. They have a great lineup. They're already better than they were last year."

 

Hahn, a University of Michigan graduate, said the acquisition of Swisher wasn't a direct response to the Tigers' blockbuster deal for Cabrera and Willis.

 

"We're certainly affected by Detroit improving offensively this off-season, but, at the same time, it's been Kenny's mantra to win the World Series every year," Hahn said, referring to GM Kenny Williams.

 

"It's about having a team that can compete deep into October. Adding Swisher helps us get back to the championship level."

 

When asked to name a favorite to win the division, Moore acknowledged that the Tigers have the most talented roster among the teams. Then he added, in reference to all teams in the division, "We all know how important the consistency and health of the starting pitching will be."

 

Moore is right. The Indians had the best rotation in the division last year -- as did the '06 Tigers, '05 White Sox, and '04 Twins. All four of those teams reached the postseason.

 

As a result, one National League general manager predicted the AL Central race will amount to a competition between pitchers hoping to have bounce-back seasons: Cleveland's Jake Westbrook and Cliff Lee vs. the Tigers' Dontrelle Willis and Kenny Rogers.

 

The Indians appear to have the more reliable rotation, headlined by C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, while the Tigers have the high-risk, high-reward type.

 

If Willis rediscovers his 2005 form, and if Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson perform at their respective 2006 levels, then the Tigers arguably will have the best rotation in baseball.

 

If they instead repeat their 2007 seasons, yet another "favorite" will have a difficult time winning what might be baseball's best top-to-bottom division.

[shipps]

It is always so funny to me how teams try and make themselves the underdog no matter what the case.They seem to argue with each other on who is supposed to be the team to beat.Its always more comfortable trying to be the overachiever than the pressure of being the dreaded underachiever.

[Balta1701]

IMO, the formula is actually pretty simple. If Jose Contreras, Gavin Floyd, and John Danks (or 1 of the guys we have at AAA) step it up big time, then the White Sox have a good shot at this division.

 

If Westbrook, HGH, and Sowers/Lee/Laffey/whoever else they throw into that 5th starter spot step it up, then the Tribe will take this division.

 

If Bonderman, Willis, Rogers, and Robertson step it up, then the Tigers will take this division.

 

All 3 of these teams on paper have very potent offenses, and it will probably be just a question of injuries/career seasons which team winds up with the best of those. They're all more than adequate in that department. The bullpens? All 3 have some question marks, although we might well be as sound as any of them since we actually have a solid, real, legit, dominating closer. All 3 of those teams have solid front ends to their starting rotation. And all 3 have back ends of the rotation with question marks but all 3 also have guys in those roles who could step up and be really good.

 

And of course, never count out the Twins.

[Steve9347]

Regardless, the Sox will be easier to watch in 2008 with more quality on base guys and a (i believe) much improved bullpen.

[RME JICO]

IMO, the formula is actually pretty simple. If Jose Contreras, Gavin Floyd, and John Danks (or 1 of the guys we have at AAA) step it up big time, then the White Sox have a good shot at this division.

 

If Westbrook, HGH, and Sowers/Lee/Laffey/whoever else they throw into that 5th starter spot step it up, then the Tribe will take this division.

 

If Bonderman, Willis, Rogers, and Robertson step it up, then the Tigers will take this division.

 

All 3 of these teams on paper have very potent offenses, and it will probably be just a question of injuries/career seasons which team winds up with the best of those. They're all more than adequate in that department. The bullpens? All 3 have some question marks, although we might well be as sound as any of them since we actually have a solid, real, legit, dominating closer. All 3 of those teams have solid front ends to their starting rotation. And all 3 have back ends of the rotation with question marks but all 3 also have guys in those roles who could step up and be really good.

 

And of course, never count out the Twins.

I agree. Also, we have already seen what an extended season has done to pitchers the next year. Cleveland is due for a letdown from their starters. It might only be neglible, but that might be enough.

 

Having Jenks is a huge upgrade over the Tigers and Indians. Borowski was brutal for a closer 5.07 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and Jones wasn't much better 4.26 ERA, 1.42 WHIP. Jenks had a 0.89 WHIP and .198 BAA. Jenks did that with basically no setup man either.

 

Detroit has the best lineup, but could have the biggest drop-off from guys like I-Rod, Sheff, and Maggs. No one from the Sox really had a great year last year, so we will hopefully see some rebound.

[BFirebird]

I agree. Also, we have already seen what an extended season has done to pitchers the next year. Cleveland is due for a letdown from their starters. It might only be neglible, but that might be enough.

 

Having Jenks is a huge upgrade over the Tigers and Indians. Borowski was brutal for a closer 5.07 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and Jones wasn't much better 4.26 ERA, 1.42 WHIP. Jenks had a 0.89 WHIP and .198 BAA. Jenks did that with basically no setup man either.

 

Detroit has the best lineup, but could have the biggest drop-off from guys like I-Rod, Sheff, and Maggs. No one from the Sox really had a great year last year, so we will hopefully see some rebound.

Very, very valid points, especially the closer situation. I could see I-Rod, Sheff and Maggs dropping off a little, but M Cab should pick some of that up for them. Should make for a very interesting year in the AL Central.

 

I believe this has already been mentioned in another post somewhere, but the Sox definitely need to improve on playing the "weaker" opponents. Their record against the NL was putrid last year and they had that one easy stretch on the schedule where it looked like they could make up some ground and they choked against the likes of the Rays, Balt. and the NL. They had decent records against DET and CLE...need to beat up on the weaker teams more.

[CanOfCorn]

Does everyone smell that??? That's smoke, and it's going up everyone's arse. All GM's and managers do this...don't want to give the other teams bulletin board material.

[elrockinMT]

Now that Leyland thinks we are improved and will be right there in the thick of it I have changed my opinion. I feel very strongly both ways about our chances.

[sircaffey]

Detroit has the best lineup, but could have the biggest drop-off from guys like I-Rod, Sheff, and Maggs. No one from the Sox really had a great year last year, so we will hopefully see some rebound.

 

I don't know how big of a dropoff you'll see from Pudge or Sheff. Each had their worst seasons of their career. Personally, I think we'll see a better season out of Sheff. As far as the Sox, Thome and Cabrera should have some fall off. I think the difference between the Sox and Tigers are the players that will likely see an increase in production, and not necessarily a dropoff.

[Balta1701]

I don't know how big of a dropoff you'll see from Pudge or Sheff. Each had their worst seasons of their career. Personally, I think we'll see a better season out of Sheff. As far as the Sox, Thome and Cabrera should have some fall off. I think the difference between the Sox and Tigers are the players that will likely see an increase in production, and not necessarily a dropoff.

Sheff also just turned 39, and IRod 36. And there's now drug testing.

[Wanne]

I don't know how big of a dropoff you'll see from Pudge or Sheff. Each had their worst seasons of their career. Personally, I think we'll see a better season out of Sheff. As far as the Sox, Thome and Cabrera should have some fall off. I think the difference between the Sox and Tigers are the players that will likely see an increase in production, and not necessarily a dropoff.

 

I definately agree with that....but a little of both. Not sure home much more of a dropoff some of these Sox hitters can have. I still wish Kenny could pull the string on another SP. I'm ok with 1-3...but 4 and 5 scare the s*** outta me. Is there enough ammo left for Bedard?

[ChWRoCk2]

Sheff also just turned 39, and IRod 36. And there's now drug testing.

I believe both were already caught with substances in previous times they used them or at least just Sheffield.

[Balta1701]

I definately agree with that....but a little of both. Not sure home much more of a dropoff some of these Sox hitters can have. I still wish Kenny could pull the string on another SP. I'm ok with 1-3...but 4 and 5 scare the s*** outta me. Is there enough ammo left for Bedard?

No there isn't.

[CanOfCorn]

I definately agree with that....but a little of both. Not sure home much more of a dropoff some of these Sox hitters can have. I still wish Kenny could pull the string on another SP. I'm ok with 1-3...but 4 and 5 scare the s*** outta me. Is there enough ammo left for Bedard?

 

Why can't we just give those two a chance? Danks is a bulldog, he showed me a lot last year. He doesn't hang his head, he just goes back out there and pitches. Now he has a year under his belt and one of the better lefties to learn from in Buerhle. Floyd is definitely more of a question mark, but he has the stuff, and he's the 5th starter and someone that can be replaced or skipped easily, especially at the beginning of the year. If all SPs can pitch to their potential, you have a very good rotation.

[flavum]

Why can't we just give those two a chance? Danks is a bulldog, he showed me a lot last year. He doesn't hang his head, he just goes back out there and pitches. Now he has a year under his belt and one of the better lefties to learn from in Buerhle. Floyd is definitely more of a question mark, but he has the stuff, and he's the 5th starter and someone that can be replaced or skipped easily, especially at the beginning of the year. If all SPs can pitch to their potential, you have a very good rotation.

 

I agree with you, and I don't agree with you.

 

I agree with you about giving thes guys a chance, but I think Danks is more of a question mark. He had a really BAD second half last year. He had 8 quality starts out of 26.

 

Floyd had 6 out of 10 quality starts, and I really liked his mound presence late in the year. I hope I see that in spring training, and for about 32 starts this season.

 

As for the overall team, they have a lot of question marks, but they have a lot of talent on this. A lot of things have to come together, but I think they can contend. I'm looking forward to seeing Richar, Quentin, and Fields play a full season with the Sox. Those three may play a huge role in whether the Sox are poised for a championship in the next few years.

[joeynach]

Regardless, the Sox will be easier to watch in 2008 with more quality on base guys and a (i believe) much improved bullpen.

 

yay 81-81 here we come

[RME JICO]

I don't know how big of a dropoff you'll see from Pudge or Sheff. Each had their worst seasons of their career. Personally, I think we'll see a better season out of Sheff. As far as the Sox, Thome and Cabrera should have some fall off. I think the difference between the Sox and Tigers are the players that will likely see an increase in production, and not necessarily a dropoff.

I-Rod is getting up there for a catcher. So he will more than likely not improve. Sheff is old, without PEDs, so he is either going to be about the same or decline some more.

 

Also, do you believe Ordonez will have another 1.000 OPS season? Is Granderson going to maintain his +.900 OPS, which was an increase of .140 OPS? Polanco also saw an increase in OPS of .153. More than likely, these 3 will come back down to earth and be closer to their career norms.

 

So that is 5 starters who will have a good chance of declining.

 

M-Cab is going to rake regardless, but how about Renteria? Is he going to be the .860 OPS guy from the NL or the .721 OPS guy from the AL?

 

Guillen will more than likely have a better season, then lastly you have J.Jones/Thames in LF.

Edited January 10, 2008 by RME JICO

[Rowand44]

Cleveland is still the favorite in the division imo.

[whitesoxfan101]

Our lineup and defense could actually be pretty damn good if healthy, but our pitching is just awful and with our horrible farm system, NOBODY can get hurt. And in this division, bad pitching=long nights, however I now have faith we can and will finish in a distant 3rd place behind the two headed monster.

Edited January 10, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[Vance Law]

I don't know how big of a dropoff you'll see from Pudge or Sheff. Each had their worst seasons of their career. Personally, I think we'll see a better season out of Sheff. As far as the Sox, Thome and Cabrera should have some fall off. I think the difference between the Sox and Tigers are the players that will likely see an increase in production, and not necessarily a dropoff.

 

I think we'll likely see Orlando's batting average go down, but I'd bet his slugging goes up. He's averaged 40 doubles over the past 2 years, and some of those will turn into home runs in Chicago. If Thome's healthy, I don't see why he can't do what he has been doing.

 

Magglio (especially) and Granderson I expect to come back down to earth.

[sircaffey]

I-Rod is getting up there for a catcher. So he will more than likely not improve. Sheff is old, without PEDs, so he is either going to be about the same or decline some more.

 

Also, do you believe Ordonez will have another 1.000 OPS season? Is Granderson going to maintain his +.900 OPS, which was an increase of .140 OPS? Polanco also saw an increase in OPS of .153. More than likely, these 3 will come back down to earth and be closer to their career norms.

 

So that is 5 starters who will have a good chance of declining.

 

M-Cab is going to rake regardless, but how about Renteria? Is he going to be the .860 OPS guy from the NL or the .721 OPS guy from the AL?

 

Guillen will more than likely have a better season, then lastly you have J.Jones/Thames in LF.

 

Sheff also raked at a .950+ OPS in the first half last season until experiencing shoulder issues the rest of the way. He's still a hell of a hitter. I don't expect Pudge to improve greatly, but I don't expect a dropoff either. It's hard to get much worse than he was last year.

 

I don't disagree with the others except for Granderson. Also, you can't ignore the impact Miguel Cabrera has on a lineup. He should make those around him better.

[Rowand44]

Our lineup and defense could actually be pretty damn good if healthy, but our pitching is just awful and with our horrible farm system, NOBODY can get hurt. And in this division, bad pitching=long nights, however I now have faith we can and will finish in a distant 3rd place behind the two headed monster.

I like our overall lineup and bullpen. I just have 0 faith in the rotation(I'm starting to sound like a broken record here), I just can't see a contender having JC, Danks and Floyd at the back of the rotation.

[Balta1701]

I like our overall lineup and bullpen. I just have 0 faith in the rotation(I'm starting to sound like a broken record here), I just can't see a contender having JC, Danks and Floyd at the back of the rotation.

Well, the fact is that it certainly appears that our organization has more faith in its rotation than its fans. All the talk coming into the offseason and in fact during this offseason has been about the lineup. Ozzie commenting on how he wanted more on-base, ozzie commenting on how he's not worried about the rotation but is still worried about the lineup, etc. Whether we like it or not, they looked at the roster, saw that they had a bunch of holes, and figured that if they wanted to fix things they had to gamble somewhere, so they chose to use their resources to totally overhaul the lineup (as they should have) and gamble with the rotation they have. I think it's the right move, it's our only chance for a quick rebuild, and if these guys fail, we're still a couple people deep at that slot. Going into battle with these 5 may not be the best option history has ever produced, but for this team and organization as constructed at the end of last year, it's the right one.

[CWSGuy406]

Sheff also just turned 39, and IRod 36.

 

Funny that this is mentioned but the ages of our offensive core isn't.

 

Our lineup and defense could actually be pretty damn good if healthy, but our pitching is just awful and with our horrible farm system, NOBODY can get hurt.

 

Also, our defense (as it stands today) is terrible. I think the Sox stand two have two above average defenders (and one of those guys will be stuck in LF) with everybody else being average or below. Of course, this would change dramatically if the Sox trade Konerko for a package of Figgins and/or Kendrick.

[Balta1701]

Funny that this is mentioned but the ages of our offensive core isn't.

Thome is 1.75 years younger than Sheffield. Dye is 2 years younger than Rodriguez, Konerko is 5 years younger than Rodriguez.

 

If we're worried about Thome's age, then they should be 5x as worried about Sheffield's age. IF we're worried about Dye or Konerko's age, they should be 8x as concerned about IRod's age

Edited January 10, 2008 by Balta1701