CWSGuy406 Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 (edited) QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 11:22 PM) Quentin should be also, if healthy. He's been a 900 OPS guy his whole way through the minors. Do you have any idea at all about the hitting environment that he put those .900 OPS' in? Your statement also makes it sounds like Quentin will be a .900 OPS guy next year. I'd bet a decent amount of change that Quentin isn't a .900 OPS next year. Edited January 11, 2008 by CWSGuy406 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marky Mark Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 11:05 AM) If Westbrook, HGH, and Sowers/Lee/Laffey/whoever else they throw into that 5th starter spot step it up, then the Tribe will take this division. I thought the subtlety of Byrd's nickname here is really funny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregory Pratt Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 Wow, I guess I didnt realize until now that we added essential 2 40 hr guys and one 30 hr guy. Fields, Swish, and Quentin for a full season are going to put up huge numbers. None of that is a lock and in fact I'd bet against all three of those being reached. Optimism is fine but saying we've added forty homerun guys and a thirty homerun guy is not something I'm willing to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heads22 Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 QUOTE(Gregory Pratt @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 10:51 PM) None of that is a lock and in fact I'd bet against all three of those being reached. Optimism is fine but saying we've added forty homerun guys and a thirty homerun guy is not something I'm willing to do. I agree with you for once. I could see 35 out of Fields and 30 out of Swish, with an additional 5 out of both if everything breaks right, but I've got a hard time thinking Quentin will give us much more than 20 unless all is right in the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hitlesswonder Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 09:58 PM) Do you have any idea at all about the hitting environment that he put those .900 OPS' in? Your statement also makes it sounds like Quentin will be a .900 OPS guy next year. I'd bet a decent amount of change that Quentin isn't a .900 OPS next year. IMO, Sox fans should be happy if : 1)Quentin is healthy 2)He puts up a .750 OPS with a .340 OBP. He's a young guy that has yet to have success in the majors. Just proving he belongs would be a great step. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hitlesswonder Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 QUOTE(Gregory Pratt @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 10:51 PM) None of that is a lock and in fact I'd bet against all three of those being reached. Optimism is fine but saying we've added forty homerun guys and a thirty homerun guy is not something I'm willing to do. Seriously...no way. In fact, I'd guess no one on the Sox will hit 40 HRs. And I feel sorry for Fields, because people seem to be expecting him to be one of the elite power hitters in baseball next season. Ugh. In adding Swisher, the Sox now have 2 players who project to be above league average offensively for their position (assuming Swish is in the OF), the defense is lousy, and they 2 starting pitchers. I think that's a 4th place team. It's possible they could be better than that if they get some unexpected offense and 2 of JC/Danks/Floyd end up being avg. starters. But I don't think it's realistic to think the Sox will be contending for anything this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metz Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 (edited) QUOTE(TLAK @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 07:43 PM) Just for conversation. What team in the Central is gonna get the most good starts over a 162 game season? The names below are orderd by Indians, Tigers, Twins, White Sox, Royals #1 Sabathia, Verlander, Santana, Buehrle, Meche #2 Carmona, Rogers, Bonser, Vazquez, Bannister #3 Byrd, Bonderman, Baker, Contreras, Greinke #4 Westbrook, Willis, Slowey, Danks, Davies #5 Laffey, Robertson, TBD, Floyd, De La Rosa By may Liriano should be back in the rotation so that should be interesting, Blackburn or Perkins will probably take that number 5 spot til he comes back Edited January 11, 2008 by JFields27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 (edited) On paper, the sox will be automatic 3rd place favorites if the Twins do indeed trade Santana. (or barring what we do something else) Maybe that should be another BearSox prediction since the Twins would be, basically, in rebuild mode (with Liriano comming off surgery and a nice farm) and will be playing alot of kids and have a ton of ?? in the rotation. IF they trade Johan. Edited January 11, 2008 by SoxAce Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 QUOTE(hitlesswonder @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 11:51 PM) Seriously...no way. In fact, I'd guess no one on the Sox will hit 40 HRs. And I feel sorry for Fields, because people seem to be expecting him to be one of the elite power hitters in baseball next season. Ugh. In adding Swisher, the Sox now have 2 players who project to be above league average offensively for their position (assuming Swish is in the OF), the defense is lousy, and they 2 starting pitchers. I think that's a 4th place team. It's possible they could be better than that if they get some unexpected offense and 2 of JC/Danks/Floyd end up being avg. starters. But I don't think it's realistic to think the Sox will be contending for anything this season. Fields was on pace on 40 hr this year, his first season. If he stays just as good, he will put up those numbers. Most likely he will improve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 QUOTE(TLAK @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 07:43 PM) Just for conversation. What team in the Central is gonna get the most good starts over a 162 game season? The names below are orderd by Indians, Tigers, Twins, White Sox, Royals #1 Sabathia, Verlander, Santana, Buehrle, Meche #2 Carmona, Rogers, Bonser, Vazquez, Bannister #3 Byrd, Bonderman, Baker, Contreras, Greinke #4 Westbrook, Willis, Slowey, Danks, Davies #5 Laffey, Robertson, TBD, Floyd, De La Rosa Well looking at it that way, that makes me feel a bit better about our rotation...my chief concern was having Contreras as a rather undependable #3 (even though personally, I think he bounces back well this year), but compared to the likes of Byrd, Bonderman, Baker and Greinke, I think he matches up alright....from #3-5, there's no one in our division that is head and shoulders above what we have, unless of course, Dtrain experiences a Rennaisance... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sircaffey Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 (edited) QUOTE(RockRaines @ Jan 11, 2008 -> 07:36 AM) Fields was on pace on 40 hr this year, his first season. If he stays just as good, he will put up those numbers. Most likely he will improve. More than 40 HR in his first full season? That is quite the lofty goal considering Arod, the Babe, Hank Aaron, Griffey, Pujols didn't even accomplish that. More recently, Prince Fielder didn't even do that. If Josh is a 40+ HR guy, we better keep him because he's going to break the HR record. I'd say, be happy with 25-30. From a quick search, players to accomplish 40+ HR in their first full season were Cecil Fielder, Mark McGwire, and Ryan Howard. Not sure Fields can hold a candle to those guys' power. Edited January 11, 2008 by sircaffey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 QUOTE(sircaffey @ Jan 11, 2008 -> 10:39 AM) More than 40 HR in his first full season? That is quite the lofty goal considering Arod, the Babe, Hank Aaron, Griffey, Pujols didn't even accomplish that. More recently, Prince Fielder didn't even do that. If Josh is a 40+ HR guy, we better keep him because he's going to break the HR record. I'd say, be happy with 25-30. From a quick search, the only players to accomplish 40+ HR in their first full season were Cecil Fielder, Mark McGwire, and Ryan Howard. Not sure Fields can hold a candle to those guys' power. You're holding it against him because he didn't get a "Full season"? So, the fact that he got what, 60%+ of a season just doesn't do it for you? Could you explain to me how those extra 150 at bats are as important as the weight you're giving to them? I can see how they'd be useful, but somehow I don't see the fact that Josh didn't get 150 at bats last season being the difference between Josh being ready for 40+ next year and Josh only giving us 25-30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregory Pratt Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 "Most likely he will improve". No, that isn't most likely until he shows he can hit the fastball -- but that's just my thought on it, and you have the right to make whatever predictions you'd like about our players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sircaffey Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 11, 2008 -> 12:41 PM) You're holding it against him because he didn't get a "Full season"? So, the fact that he got what, 60%+ of a season just doesn't do it for you? Could you explain to me how those extra 150 at bats are as important as the weight you're giving to them? I can see how they'd be useful, but somehow I don't see the fact that Josh didn't get 150 at bats last season being the difference between Josh being ready for 40+ next year and Josh only giving us 25-30. I'm just stating history. Don't be offended. If you think Fields has the power of McGwire, Fielder, and Howard then more power to you. I hope you're right. I doubt he does though. It's just a very rare thing to hit 40 HR in your first full season. 373 AB isn't enough to go by. Especially when Josh never hit more than 20 HR in any of his previous full pro seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sircaffey Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 QUOTE(Gregory Pratt @ Jan 11, 2008 -> 12:42 PM) "Most likely he will improve". No, that isn't most likely until he shows he can hit the fastball -- but that's just my thought on it, and you have the right to make whatever predictions you'd like about our players. That, and I doubt Josh slugs .698 vs LHP this upcoming season. He better improve his line vs RHP (.213/.284/.383) or else he's going to disappoint a lot of Sox fans apparently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hitlesswonder Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 QUOTE(Gregory Pratt @ Jan 11, 2008 -> 12:42 PM) "Most likely he will improve". No, that isn't most likely until he shows he can hit the fastball -- but that's just my thought on it, and you have the right to make whatever predictions you'd like about our players. Melky Cabrera posted a .751 OPS as a 22 year-old. At 23 he posted a .... .718 OPS. Young players aren't locks to improve, as you say. Cabrera is interesting -- he's a bad comp in that he and Fields are very different hitters, except that Cabrera has a rep as a good breaking ball hitter. Sort of like Fields. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 QUOTE(hitlesswonder @ Jan 11, 2008 -> 12:59 PM) Melky Cabrera posted a .751 OPS as a 22 year-old. At 23 he posted a .... .718 OPS. Young players aren't locks to improve, as you say. Cabrera is interesting -- he's a bad comp in that he and Fields are very different hitters, except that Cabrera has a rep as a good breaking ball hitter. Sort of like Fields. I've never understood the hype of Melky though....he looks like a decent player, but nothing spectacular. I think, at least in terms of hitting potential, Fields' far exceeds that of Cabrera. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pants Rowland Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 I think one thing not being considered is with most young players, once around the league, veterans and scouts learn a little something about you. This is magnified if you hit 20+ home runs during your first partial season. The league is going to have better reports on Josh this year and will make adjustments accordingly. They also may pitch around him in some situations knowing what he can do with the bat. If he is as good as some people project, he will take his lumps when the league adjusts and make his own adjustments. Some say the sophomore slump is a thing of the past. The thought is the home team learns the weaknesses first and the great players fix any problems before the league has a chance to adjust in their second season. I do not think it works in real time just yet and expect to see Josh struggle at times this year. One other item to note is Josh is yet to play a full seaon in the major leagues. That wears players down considerably over 162 games and is as big a contributor to slumps, illness, injuries, etc. as anything. I am not saying Fields is not capable of 40 HR. I hope he does it, but annualizing his statistics from his first 350 ABs is probably a flawed approach, albeit the only one we can go off of for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.