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Tigers not a lock for AL Central title


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QUOTE(WCSox @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 04:09 PM)
Even if the Sox continue to suck this season, the Tigers are no lock for the Central title. Same goes for the Tribe. It's a lot more wide open than some people seem to think.

 

No kidding. Everyone keeps dismissing the Twins and Royals. KC has no track record right now so it makes sense not to consider them a contender.

 

However, if no deals for Santana or Nathan take place and Liriano is even 75% as effective as he was when he first came up, they have as good a chance as anyone. You know they will still play the game right and always do well at home. Their offense will take a hit, but Delmon Young will be a nice addition. I hate when people dismiss them. That is usually when they play .750 ball in the second half and leave everyone with their mouths hanging open wondering what happened.

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QUOTE(Rowand44 @ Jan 11, 2008 -> 08:50 AM)
I like our overall lineup and bullpen. I just have 0 faith in the rotation(I'm starting to sound like a broken record here), I just can't see a contender having JC, Danks and Floyd at the back of the rotation.

The bullpen still needs improving IMHO.

 

I don't have much faith in MacDougal or Thornton heading into this season, while it's very possible Linebrink could post an ERA around the 4.50 mark.

 

Of course it's always a crapshoot, but I still think we need to improve 1 or 2 spots in there. Getting Justin Speier in a Konerko deal would help the situation.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 03:04 PM)
Thome is 1.75 years younger than Sheffield. Dye is 2 years younger than Rodriguez, Konerko is 5 years younger than Rodriguez.

 

If we're worried about Thome's age, then they should be 5x as worried about Sheffield's age. IF we're worried about Dye or Konerko's age, they should be 8x as concerned about IRod's age

Also, there is a bigger difference as you get older. Sheffield and Thome both should regress, but Sheffield should will more than likely regress more.

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QUOTE(Rowand44 @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 09:50 PM)
I like our overall lineup and bullpen. I just have 0 faith in the rotation(I'm starting to sound like a broken record here), I just can't see a contender having JC, Danks and Floyd at the back of the rotation.

The lineup is pretty good but i still think we need that experienced leadoff hitter. The bullpen was slightly improved but other than Jenks we are basing the '08 seasons on "HOPE" that Macdougal and Thorton can rebound strong. The rotation is our biggest weakness. I can see Contreras winning 12-14 games and slightly rebounding from last years nightmare season but im just not so sure about Danks and Floyd. With that being said i think one way to improve the club is to trade Pauly for Kendrick, Figgins and Santana.

Then we ship out Kendrick, Danks and Santana to Baltamore for Bedard, how can the O's say no to that?

 

We would get that leadoff hitter that Ozzie conveys and we will also get that ACE type starter that most of us know we need.

 

 

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QUOTE(GreatScott82 @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 04:49 PM)
The bullpen was slightly improved but other than Jenks we are basing the '08 seasons on "HOPE" that Macdougal and Thorton can rebound strong.

Most bullpens are all about "hope," you just never know year to year with relievers.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 04:04 PM)
Thome is 1.75 years younger than Sheffield. Dye is 2 years younger than Rodriguez, Konerko is 5 years younger than Rodriguez.

 

If we're worried about Thome's age, then they should be 5x as worried about Sheffield's age. IF we're worried about Dye or Konerko's age, they should be 8x as concerned about IRod's age

 

Yes and no. The difference being the Tigers offense isn't built around Sheff and Pudge. Our offense is built around Thome, Dye, and Konerko. Not saying I'm worried for this next year, but there is a difference.

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QUOTE(sircaffey @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 03:03 PM)
Yes and no. The difference being the Tigers offense isn't built around Sheff and Pudge. Our offense is built around Thome, Dye, and Konerko. Not saying I'm worried for this next year, but there is a difference.

If it works right, our offense shouldn't be built around those 3 any more than the Tigers are built around those 2. We should have added to >900 OPS guys to the lineup this year, who should just be generating all sorts of offense, and we hopefully have a couple better hitters and more distributed power as well. With a reasonable amount of health, our lineup would hit 220 home runs if a lot of guys had bad years.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 05:09 PM)
If it works right, our offense shouldn't be built around those 3 any more than the Tigers are built around those 2. We should have added to >900 OPS guys to the lineup this year, who should just be generating all sorts of offense, and we hopefully have a couple better hitters and more distributed power as well. With a reasonable amount of health, our lineup would hit 220 home runs if a lot of guys had bad years.

 

Come on now. Pudge is the worst hitter in their lineup. With reasonable health, how many of those 220 HR will come from Thome, Konerko, and Dye? Near half. Those 3 are the heart and soul of the lineup.

 

Who's the 2nd .900 OPS guy? Swisher and...?

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QUOTE(GreatScott82 @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 04:49 PM)
One way to improve the club is to trade Pauly for Kendrick, Figgins and Santana. Then we ship out Kendrick, Danks and Santana to Baltamore for Bedard, how can the O's say no to that?

 

I know Bedard is a great catch, but is that too much talent to give up? How would such a package compare to the names being thrown around for a potential deal with Seattle?

 

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QUOTE(sircaffey @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 03:20 PM)
Come on now. Pudge is the worst hitter in their lineup. With reasonable health, how many of those 220 HR will come from Thome, Konerko, and Dye? Near half. Those 3 are the heart and soul of the lineup.

 

Who's the 2nd .900 OPS guy? Swisher and...?

Quentin should be also, if healthy. He's been a 900 OPS guy his whole way through the minors.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 05:22 PM)
Quentin should be also, if healthy. He's been a 900 OPS guy his whole way through the minors.

You have some big time expectations for Quentin there. I like him as well but not expecting a .900 ops season out of him this year.

Edited by Rowand44
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QUOTE(Rowand44 @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 05:26 PM)
You have some big time expectations for Quentin there. I like him as well but not expecting a .900 ops season out of him this year.

 

I love Quentin too. I think he can eventually become a .900+ OPS hitter, but maybe in 3-4 years. I think we should all be very satisfied if we get a full season of .800 OPS out of Carlos.

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QUOTE(Rowand44 @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 03:26 PM)
You have some big time expectations from Quentin there. I like him as well but not expecting a .900 ops season out of him this year.

In 2006, his first callup before he got hurt last year, here's his numbers in 166 at bats:

.253 .342 .530 872, 9 home runs.

 

Here's his career minor league numbers:

.312 .427 .526 953

 

You guys will be amazed at what this kid does if he stays healthy. 9 home runs in 166 AB's is a 35 home run pace on a full season. Takes a ton of walks, slugs like crazy. His numbers are to die for. The only question is his health. Last year on his stint in the minors he put up a 1.004.

Edited by Balta1701
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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 05:28 PM)
In 2006, his first callup before he got hurt last year, here's his numbers in 166 at bats:

.253 .342 .530 872, 9 home runs.

 

Here's his career minor league numbers:

.312 .427 .526 953

 

You guys will be amazed at what this kid does if he stays healthy. 9 home runs in 166 AB's is a 35 home run pace on a full season. Takes a ton of walks, slugs like crazy. His numbers are to die for. The only question is his health.

 

I know he's very talented, but how many young players have come up recently and put up a .900+ OPS in their first full season?

 

Howard, Braun...

 

Even Fielder didn't.

Edited by sircaffey
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QUOTE(sircaffey @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 05:32 PM)
I know he's very talented, but how many young players have come up recently and put up a .900+ OPS in their first full season?

 

Howard, Braun...

 

Even Fielder didn't.

Pssh. Those guys suck. We're talking about Carlos Quentin here.

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Quentin puts up a .800 OPS in 2008, I'll take that.

 

I think a .900 OPS is what he's capable of doing in the future, and if he stays healthy, I think he can do put up those type of numbers, especially since he'll be hitting half of his games at the Cell.

 

This could really be one of KW's best trades right here.

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Just for conversation. What team in the Central is gonna get the most good starts over a 162 game season?

 

The names below are orderd by Indians, Tigers, Twins, White Sox, Royals

 

#1

Sabathia, Verlander, Santana, Buehrle, Meche

 

#2

Carmona, Rogers, Bonser, Vazquez, Bannister

 

#3

Byrd, Bonderman, Baker, Contreras, Greinke

 

#4

Westbrook, Willis, Slowey, Danks, Davies

 

#5

Laffey, Robertson, TBD, Floyd, De La Rosa

 

 

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Sheff also raked at a .950+ OPS in the first half last season until experiencing shoulder issues the rest of the way. He's still a hell of a hitter. I don't expect Pudge to improve greatly, but I don't expect a dropoff either. It's hard to get much worse than he was last year.

 

I don't disagree with the others except for Granderson. Also, you can't ignore the impact Miguel Cabrera has on a lineup. He should make those around him better.

If Thome had Sheff's season last year, people would be talking about how he's falling apart and needs to retire. I-Rod will probably have a season just like last year because he has always been a free swinging hack. It might be hard to get "much worse" than he was last year, but in 2005 he had a season very similar to 2007.

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QUOTE(elrockinMT @ Jan 10, 2008 -> 02:03 PM)
Now that Leyland thinks we are improved and will be right there in the thick of it I have changed my opinion. I feel very strongly both ways about our chances.

 

 

He's just being respectful and not stating the obvious.

 

 

 

Bob

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