Fantasy Question

[ScottyDo]

Alright so I'm in this fantasy keeper league, right? And I have too many options so I'd like people's advice.

 

The set-up is this:

H2H points with pretty standard scoring.

We MUST keep one pitcher and one position player.

We MAY keep one additional player if we wish.

*EDIT We lose draft picks for EVERYONE we keep, including the ones you must keep./EDIT* We lose the draft pick in the round they were chosen the following year if we choose to keep someone. So say I picked up Alex Rodriguez in the 18th round (hey, anything's possible!), I'd lose my 18th round pick the next year if I chose to keep him. Any additional years I choose to keep him, that round is moved up by 2. So if I kept him 2 years, the second year I'd lose my 16th rounder, etc.

 

So the emphasis is on balancing new talent with overall skill.

 

Alright, so here's my dilemma.

I have Hanley Ramirez, drafted in the 5th round, so I'm probably keeping him. From a position player perspective, I also have Chase Utley, drafted in the first round. And Nick Markakis in the 11th round. And Corey Hart, undrafted. Those are all options.

 

But with my pitching staff, I have a litany of cheap talent I have to choose from:

Tim Lincecum - Undrafted

Chad Billingsley - Round 19 *SP AND RP eligible!

John Maine - Round 21

Mark Buehrle - Round 17

Oliver Perez - Undrafted

Scott Kazmir - Round 7

Chien-Ming Wang - Round 10

Carlos Zambrano - Round 3

Roy Oswalt - Round 3

 

I also have Brett Myers but he's probably not worth keeping at round 4.

 

I'm really leaning towards Lincecum, but I'm worried about long-term durability and sophomore slump. Also, Billingsley looks to have pretty tremendous value, as do Maine and Perez, and possibly Kazmir. What I WANT to do is keep Hanley Ramirez and one of those guys as the necessary keepers and keep Utley additionally, because what a solid core at weak positions I'd have. But then I'd be passing on a LOT of good value in the pitching game.

 

Any insight?

Edited January 16, 2008 by ScottyDo

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Keep Utley as the guy you have to keep and Ramirez as your choice, that way it only costs you a 5th rounder. Pitching i'd take Wang

[Soxbadger]

If you want to keep Utley and Hanram, Id keep Utley as the must player and Hanram as the "may" player.

 

Why?

 

Because if you take Utley as the must player this year you will have a 1st rounder but lose a 5th rounder for Hanley (No way in hell Hanley wont be a first round pick so that is an amazing deal for you).

 

If you take Hanley as the must player this year you will have a 5th rounder but lose a 1st rounder for Utley.

[daa84]

gotta keep han ram for sure...hes a top 5 pick and you only give up a 5th rounder....i also like kazmir for a 7th rounder, or lincecum...lincecum in that ballpark is gonna be good for quite a few years whereas kazmir has to pitch in the AL east.....where do you pick in the first round?? obviously if you pick #1 you may rather see what else is out there instead of keeping utley

[ScottyDo]

If you want to keep Utley and Hanram, Id keep Utley as the must player and Hanram as the "may" player.

 

Why?

 

Because if you take Utley as the must player this year you will have a 1st rounder but lose a 5th rounder for Hanley (No way in hell Hanley wont be a first round pick so that is an amazing deal for you).

 

If you take Hanley as the must player this year you will have a 5th rounder but lose a 1st rounder for Utley.

 

I'm not sure I explained the system correctly. I'm gonna lose a pick for everyone I keep, regardless of whether they're the may or musts. So I'd lose the first round pick every time with Utley and the 5th round pick this year for hanley. So if I go with those two, I will definitely lose a first and a fifth this year no matter what.

 

gotta keep han ram for sure...hes a top 5 pick and you only give up a 5th rounder....i also like kazmir for a 7th rounder, or lincecum...lincecum in that ballpark is gonna be good for quite a few years whereas kazmir has to pitch in the AL east.....where do you pick in the first round?? obviously if you pick #1 you may rather see what else is out there instead of keeping utley

 

I draft #7 (I had horrible luck...stupid head 2 head...) so I'm thinking, if it's possible that Utley could drop to me if I chose not to keep him, I could keep Markakis or Hart instead. Probably Markakis.

[ZoomSlowik]

Hanley is obviously a gimme at that price. I'd also go with Lincecum at the un-drafted, that's pretty solid value and he should put up pretty solid numbers.

 

After that I'd take one of the position players. Pitchers are just too inconsistent and get hurt too often to use two of your keepers on them, unless you have an absurd value-pick like Beckett in the 10th. You could make a case for losing your first and taking Utley given his production and position scarcity. In fact, if you really want Utley I'd do that, I personally have a hard time imagining that he'll slip to #7. About the latest you could realistically expect him to go is #10 in a non-keeper, and I have to imagine at least a couple of the guys that would go ahead of him will be retained.

 

I think I'd personally take Markakis or Hart though, whichever guy you feel more comfortable with (I think you could make a strong case either way, Markakis is a bit better but Hart has better value). That way you get a guaranteed solid producer from a later round and you can still snag an elite talent in the first, even if it isn't Utley.

Edited January 16, 2008 by ZoomSlowik