Octavio Dotel signs with Sox

[sircaffey]

Owens/Cabrera 1-2 would be one of the worst 1-2 combos in the majors.

[CWSGuy406]

Owens/Cabrera 1-2 would be one of the worst 1-2 combos in the majors.

 

It's pathetic, embarrassing and (insert negative word) that Owens is being talked about as anything more than a 4th outfielder. I also have to laugh at the quotes that are something along the lines of, "It'll depend on how Jerry plays in spring." Because a one-month hot streak in a bloated offensive environment is going to give me a lot of confidence about a bad baseball player.

 

Let's hope those quotes from Guillen and KW are the ones you're not supposed to take at face value.

[BearSox]

Owens/Cabrera 1-2 would be one of the worst 1-2 combos in the majors.

Didn't you hear? Jerry Owens is fast and can steal bases though!

[Metz]

Didn't you hear? Jerry Owens is fast and can steal bases though!

 

yeah thats why Ozzie hired Jeff Cox so he could "bring the fundamentals of running the basepaths" back

[lvjeremylv]

Owens/Cabrera 1-2 would be one of the worst 1-2 combos in the majors.

It would still be a vast improvement over our 1-2 from 2007.

[bmags]

even though ideally I do not want owens starting, b/c i want to see quentin in our OF, I think some people's opinions of him are a little too exaggerated for the amount of time we've seen him. His power is a big issue. But he does have a good eye and makes contact. And while he likely will only be a 4th OF, if this kid can hit over.300 while getting on base another 60 to 80 points above that, with his speed and who's behind him, he would have quite a few teams bidding for his services in my opinion. And I don't think those numbers I mentioned are out of the realm of possibility by any means.

 

edit: and that last statement, to clarify, was my way of saying he could find jobs starting on more than a few mlb teams.

Edited January 28, 2008 by bmags

[SoxAce]

It would still be a vast improvement over our 1-2 from 2007.

 

Tell me about it. Anytime you have Andy freakin Gonzalez leading off for your team (which makes Pods look like R. Henderson) then you know your team is terrible.

[YASNY]

For me the part of our lineup that worries me is the back end of it. The way I'm understanding it, if Owens comes in and has a good Spring, he'll get the nod in CF and most likely will be our leadoff guy. He certainly proved later in the 2007 season that he can hit at the major league level and that he can steal a base. Hitting .267 and stealing 32 bases is pretty awesome for a rookie if you ask me, and he only played in 93 games. So if Owens is in our lineup, it would probably look like this...

 

CF Owens

SS Cabrera

1B Konerko

DH Thome

LF Swisher

RF Dye

3B Fields (like most, I am assuming Crede is gone, which I would not do, but that's a different topic)

C Pierzynski

2B Richar (Ramirez? Uribe maybe?)

 

Then let's say Owens has a crappy spring and they decide to stick Swisher in center, which would probably give Quentin the slot in LF....

 

SS Cabrera

CF Swisher

1B Konerko

DH Thome

RF Dye

LF Quentin

3B Fields

C Pierzynski

2B Whoever

 

Either way, I think that's a rather solid lineup. Josh is really going to have to work on his approach at the plate. Hitting 23 home runs in 100 games is great - but striking out 125 times is not. Especially when he only walked 35 times. With my lineup the way I have it, our bottom 3 guys had OBPs of .308 (Fields), .289 (Richar - granted, very limited playing time), .284 (Uribe), and .309 (AJ). That will not get it done at the major league level. I left out Alexei because he's a rook and I don't know how well Cuban stats would translate to the majors.

 

Hopefully Owens comes out and has a great Spring, because our lineup would be much better with Owens/Cabrera at the top, with Swisher moving down to the middle of the order.

 

I have just one question for you. How many times has the lineup had Paulie 3rd and Thome cleanup?

Edited January 28, 2008 by YASNY

[Rowand44]

even though ideally I do not want owens starting, b/c i want to see quentin in our OF, I think some people's opinions of him are a little too exaggerated for the amount of time we've seen him. His power is a big issue. But he does have a good eye and makes contact. And while he likely will only be a 4th OF, if this kid can hit over.300 while getting on base another 60 to 80 points above that, with his speed and who's behind him, he would have quite a few teams bidding for his services in my opinion. And I don't think those numbers I mentioned are out of the realm of possibility by any means.

 

edit: and that last statement, to clarify, was my way of saying he could find jobs starting on more than a few mlb teams.

I'm pretty sure everyone would be fine with Owens starting if he could put up a .360-.380 obp. That isn't happening though, ever.

Edited January 28, 2008 by Rowand44

[Y2HH]

I'm pretty sure everyone would be fine with Owens starting if he could put up a .360-.380 obp. That isn't happening though, ever.

 

It could happen, even if unlikely, but to say never before the guy even has a chance is nothing more than guessing and speculation on your part. Owens had a pretty decent year for a rookie who played half a season, with 32 SB and batting over .260 -- considering our alternate options -- I'll take that and give him the benefit of the doubt unless someone else shows up in spring training and prooves otherwise.

 

[bmags]

I'm pretty sure everyone would be fine with Owens starting if he could put up a .360-.380 obp. That isn't happening though, ever.

 

I disagree it couldn't ever happen. He showed a good eye through the minors and here in the majors. If he hits .300 and up I see that as a realistic possibility, and I don't think it's so set in stone that he's a .270 hitter like many on the board have given him.

[almagest]

Jerry Owens' projected 2008 stats based on the Marcels Average (Definition here) is as follows:

 

Year    Rel.    PA    AB    R    H    2B    3B    HR    RBI    SB    CS    BB    K    BA    OBP    SLG    GPA
2008    0.62    395    358    49    98    14    2    5    29    23    6    30    64    .270    .330    .370    .240

 

GPA = Gross Production Average. .200 is lousy, .265 is average, .300 is very good.

 

Can we live with .270/.330/.370 from our leadoff hitter? I'm not sure we could -- not in this division.

 

If you think Jerry will produce at a higher rate than this, why? What evidence do we have that'd show he'd be any better at the Major League level?

Edited January 28, 2008 by almagest

[Y2HH]

Jerry Owens' projected 2008 stats based on the Marcels Average (Definition here) is as follows:

 

Year    Rel.    PA    AB    R    H    2B    3B    HR    RBI    SB    CS    BB    K    BA    OBP    SLG    GPA
2008    0.62    395    358    49    98    14    2    5    29    23    6    30    64    .270    .330    .370    .240

 

GPA = Gross Production Average. .200 is lousy, .265 is average, .300 is very good.

 

Can we live with .270/.330/.370 from our leadoff hitter? I'm not sure we could -- not in this division.

 

If you think Jerry will produce at a higher rate than this, why? What evidence do we have that'd show he'd be any better at the Major League level?

 

Simply because projections like this, or other "pythags" and mundane calculations are meaningless until the games are played.

 

I don't think it's unreasonable to believe he will improve over last year, being as young as he was, with more experience under his belt.

 

According to calculations like this, the 2005 Sox were a second or third place team that didn't win the world series.

[sircaffey]

It would still be a vast improvement over our 1-2 from 2007.

 

I agree, but that's not saying much. A Cabrera/Swisher 1-2 would be an even bigger improvement, and would be one of the better 1-2 in the league.

[sircaffey]

A lot of us said it when the trade happened, and it still holds true today.

 

If Garland was used to bring in Cabrera as our LEAD OFF hitter, it was a huge waste of resources. I was really under the impression that after the Cabrera deal went down, a "lead off hitter" was going to be acquired. That never materialized.

 

Cabrera is a good ball player, and a welcome addition to SS after the season Uribe had in 2007, but with the amount of holes this team had going into this season, Garland should have been used to acquire a bat that was more needed, or even just kept, because right now I think the biggest weakness on this team is a solid #3 starter...

 

I agree completely. Although, I'd hate to see Cabrera bat 2nd just because he was originally brought in to do so. Right now, he's the best leadoff option we have.

[sircaffey]

Simply because projections like this, or other "pythags" and mundane calculations are meaningless until the games are played.

 

I don't think it's unreasonable to believe he will improve over last year, being as young as he was, with more experience under his belt.

 

According to calculations like this, the 2005 Sox were a second or third place team that didn't win the world series.

 

Let's just say "inexperienced". Jerry turns 27 in 19 days. He's quite old for a prospect.

[southsider2k5]

I disagree it couldn't ever happen. He showed a good eye through the minors and here in the majors. If he hits .300 and up I see that as a realistic possibility, and I don't think it's so set in stone that he's a .270 hitter like many on the board have given him.

 

He HAS to learn how to bunt if he wants to be a major leaguer. If he can get good at it, he can have an Otis Nixon, Brett Butler type of career. If he doesn't, he won't amount to much, besides a specialist type bench player.

[CWSGuy406]

Let's just say "inexperienced". Jerry turns 27 in 19 days. He's quite old for a prospect.

 

Yep -- Owens is all of (~)4 months younger than Nick Swisher, to put things into perspective a bit.

 

And no, it's completely unreasonable to think Owens is capable of a .370 or .380 OBP. His minor league OBP was .362, and that's despite the fact that he was old for his level every step of the way. That doesn't even mention his terrible slugging percentage.

 

He's nothing more than a 4th outfielder, but for some reason Sox fans seem to equate 'speedy' and 'slap-hitty' with 'good'.

[lvjeremylv]

I have just one question for you. How many times has the lineup had Paulie 3rd and Thome cleanup?

Eh I don't know, guess I wasn't remembering how Oz does his lineups. Typically you have your top power guy hitting cleanup, and that would be Thome when he's in the lineup. And now that we'll have the switch-hitting Swisher possibly in the 5th slot, it would enable the Sox to have some flexibility later in games and force other teams to use their bullpen more.

[lvjeremylv]

I'm pretty sure everyone would be fine with Owens starting if he could put up a .360-.380 obp. That isn't happening though, ever.

Scott Podsednik - who I think we will all agree did more than a good job of leading off for us in 2005 - had an OBP of .351 that year. Jerry managed a .324 last season - just 27 points off of what Scott did. I think it's very reasonable to say that Owens could show improvement and have an OBP of .350 in 2008, and he's shown he has just as much speed as Podsednik.

 

An on base percentage of .360-.380 for a White Sox leadoff hitter would be awesome, but it's certainly not a pre-requisite.

[Y2HH]

Let's just say "inexperienced". Jerry turns 27 in 19 days. He's quite old for a prospect.

 

My mistake. Yes, the word should have been inexperienced.

[daa84]

Yep -- Owens is all of (~)4 months younger than Nick Swisher, to put things into perspective a bit.

 

And no, it's completely unreasonable to think Owens is capable of a .370 or .380 OBP. His minor league OBP was .362, and that's despite the fact that he was old for his level every step of the way. That doesn't even mention his terrible slugging percentage.

 

He's nothing more than a 4th outfielder, but for some reason Sox fans seem to equate 'speedy' and 'slap-hitty' with 'good'.

agreed on all accounts... i will honestly be very upset if jerry owens plays over carlos quentin .....Quentin had a .427 obp in the minors with a .526 slugging....owens had a .362 obp and .368 slugging....but yet, because jerry owens can steal bases so many sox fans want him to play over quentin because he can "lead off"

[lvjeremylv]

agreed on all accounts... i will honestly be very upset if jerry owens plays over carlos quentin .....Quentin had a .427 obp in the minors with a .526 slugging....owens had a .362 obp and .368 slugging....but yet, because jerry owens can steal bases so many sox fans want him to play over quentin because he can "lead off"

Good point, assuming Quentin is healthy. Keep in mind, though, that if Quentin is in the Sox lineup, that will put Swisher in CF, which hurts us defensively as opposed to having Owens in CF and Swisher in LF.

[bmags]

Yep -- Owens is all of (~)4 months younger than Nick Swisher, to put things into perspective a bit.

 

And no, it's completely unreasonable to think Owens is capable of a .370 or .380 OBP. His minor league OBP was .362, and that's despite the fact that he was old for his level every step of the way. That doesn't even mention his terrible slugging percentage.

 

He's nothing more than a 4th outfielder, but for some reason Sox fans seem to equate 'speedy' and 'slap-hitty' with 'good'.

 

his minor league obp was .08 points off of .370, and his completely incapable of that because that was only because he was older than everyone. Forget that everyone else probably had more baseball experience than jerry owens at every level. It was almost unfair that they let owens play with them at that level, because being several years older than them he was probably like 2 times the size, capable of physically dominating them, like a 14 year old v. a 9 year old.

 

"sox fans" don't seem to equate 'speedy' and 'slap-hitty' with good, they recognize that if owens can get on base at a high level at the top of the order it won't be a tragedy to have him starting. Do I want him to start? No. I already stated that, you are arguing against a ghost you've created in your head, kind of like how you've decided on who owens is already. But if Owens plays at the level I'm speaking of, considering he can play CF, and makes it out of ST the starter, it will not be this end of the world that some hyperbolic sox talkers claim it will be just b/c they've already decided on how owens will produce. His speed and base-stealing abilities would help make up for his utter lack of power if he can get on-base consistently.

 

Once again, I'm not saying that Owens is this all-star CF, I'm saying that if he does play himself into a starter on this team, it is likely because he is hitting at a higher level than has been designated for him by posters on this site.

 

 

[CWSGuy406]

"sox fans" don't seem to equate 'speedy' and 'slap-hitty' with good, they recognize that if owens can get on base at a high level at the top of the order it won't be a tragedy to have him starting. Do I want him to start? No. I already stated that, you are arguing against a ghost you've created in your head, kind of like how you've decided on who owens is already. But if Owens plays at the level I'm speaking of, considering he can play CF, and makes it out of ST the starter, it will not be this end of the world that some hyperbolic sox talkers claim it will be just b/c they've already decided on how owens will produce.

 

My apologies for not engaging in the fantasy world where Owens is going to hit .310/.380/... We can do that with just about every player -- it'sbasically like saying, "if X was good, he'd be a good baseball player!" Yes, obviously if Owens could sustain a .380 OBP the Sox ought to find a place for him. I'd say that about any player who could do that -- I don't see how a statement like that raises the level of discourse on this site.

 

His speed and base-stealing abilities would help make up for his utter lack of power if he can get on-base consistently

 

No -- not at all -- but you go ahead and think that if you'd like.