Octavio Dotel signs with Sox

[GoodAsGould]

Whatever. I still stand by my statement that without Pods first half, the Sox miss the playoffs.

 

I dont know if we miss the playoffs or not, depends on I guess who was there instead and his impact. But... Pods was definitely a very important part of that 05 team and when he hit well it made our offense a helluva lot better.

[DBAHO]

Considering how many 1 run wins we had in that season, taking Pods out of the lineup could have indeed been the difference in us not making the playoffs.

 

How many times did he get on base to start a game, Gooch sacrifices him across, and then Everett or Konerko drove him in? A lot of times.

[YASNY]

I dont know if we miss the playoffs or not, depends on I guess who was there instead and his impact. But... Pods was definitely a very important part of that 05 team and when he hit well it made our offense a helluva lot better.

 

Let me rephrase for clarity's sake. If Pods '05 first half was like the rest of his time with the Sox, Cleveland wins the ALC in '05.

[Heads22]

Whatever. I still stand by my statement that without Pods first half, the Sox miss the playoffs.

:notworthy

 

[witesoxfan]

I dont know if we miss the playoffs or not, depends on I guess who was there instead and his impact. But... Pods was definitely a very important part of that 05 team and when he hit well it made our offense a helluva lot better.

 

this

[almagest]

I think Pods was useful, but I don't think he was single-handedly responsible for 6 or 7 wins in the first half of '05. I think that's way too much credit to him, and not enough to our pitching staff, or even the rest of the offense.

[ptatc]

Ok, so what are qualified as stressful pitches? And where's the evidence that shows that a high number of said stressful pitches leads to a higher ERA, WHIP, more pitches thrown, or rate of injury? I've never seen any.

 

I'll agree that "statheads" tend to blindly throw stats around without considering any other factors, but you can't just say "this works this way" without any sort of evidence to back it up.

 

Stressful pitches are usually referred to pitches where the pitcher is in trouble of getting scored upon or as the saying goes "he must bear down." The evidence I go by is the reports on how hard the pitcher perceived he was working. Did he feel it was an easy inning or did he need to work hard. It may be physical, it may be mental either way it wears the pitcher out.

 

I know most of the people here disagree and I can't quantify it myself. I'm working on a research project right now with pitchers and I'm throwing around (pun intended) the idea of how to do this. I like looking at the numbers as much as the next baseball fan but there are some things that I've observed that I can't quite prove yet.

 

But worrying about a runner who may steal, whether successful or not does wear on a pitcher. Ask any pitcher who has been in minors or MLB and most will agree that in crucial situations if this type of person is on base they need to work harder and this can only help the opposing team.

[ptatc]

I'm certainly not going to say that a player with a .330 OBP but who can steal 50 bases is more valuable than any number of .330 OBP/.450 SLG types that you can find every offseason. You see... I prefer the player that doesn't have to steal second base -- I prefer the player that's already on second base because he hit a double and doesn't have to worry about stealing second. That puts stress on the pitcher too -- if he gives up a single, he gives up a run.

 

And I'm no way against a player being fast, by the way -- it's a great tool to have. But the people that still think these .270/.330/.350 (but with SPEED!) LFers (or CFers when there's a much better option available -- see Owens, Jerry versus Quentin, Carlos) are in any way good gives me a nice chuckle.

 

This is true depending on the difference between the two players. Is a .05 better OBP worth having the slower guy on base? Here's a thought. How many GIDP did PK have with Pods on in front of him vs. having slower player in front? A faster runner will cause PK's horrible GIDP numbers to be lower, which again only helps the team.

 

Currently, I don't know who is the better player JO or CQ. Obviously, if one is far ahead of the other you pick that one but so far I'm not sure either has.

[Balta1701]

This is true depending on the difference between the two players. Is a .05 better OBP worth having the slower guy on base? Here's a thought. How many GIDP did PK have with Pods on in front of him vs. having slower player in front? A faster runner will cause PK's horrible GIDP numbers to be lower, which again only helps the team.

 

Currently, I don't know who is the better player JO or CQ. Obviously, if one is far ahead of the other you pick that one but so far I'm not sure either has.

The problem of course is that the OBP isn't the only part of the equation. If you give me 2 guys with identical slugging numbers, one steals 50 bases at an 80% clip but has a .1 lower OBP than a guy who steals 2, of course you take the 50 steals guy. But if the guy with the higher OBP also has a significantly higher slugging percentage and hits a lot more home runs...well, if Konerko and Owens had identical OBP's, Owens stole 60 bases, Konerko bopped 40 home runs, which one would you pick?

[YASNY]

This is true depending on the difference between the two players. Is a .05 better OBP worth having the slower guy on base? Here's a thought. How many GIDP did PK have with Pods on in front of him vs. having slower player in front? A faster runner will cause PK's horrible GIDP numbers to be lower, which again only helps the team.

 

Currently, I don't know who is the better player JO or CQ. Obviously, if one is far ahead of the other you pick that one but so far I'm not sure either has.

 

This brings up another point. Not only does a potential base stealer effect the pitcher, but it also effects the defensive positioning of the miidle infielders. They have a blatent tendency to cheat toward second base which opens up holes on both sides of the infield. Granted, anyone on base with less than two outs and they'll play at double play depth, but it's even more pronounced when there is a base stealing threat on first.

[ptatc]

The problem of course is that the OBP isn't the only part of the equation. If you give me 2 guys with identical slugging numbers, one steals 50 bases at an 80% clip but has a .1 lower OBP than a guy who steals 2, of course you take the 50 steals guy. But if the guy with the higher OBP also has a significantly higher slugging percentage and hits a lot more home runs...well, if Konerko and Owens had identical OBP's, Owens stole 60 bases, Konerko bopped 40 home runs, which one would you pick?

 

This is a question I always go crazy thinking about and the only way I can answer it is to take the easy way out: it depends on the make up of the rest of the team. I always lean towards pitching and defense. In that case the speedster hopefully (although not always) provides that extra defense at either the outfield or middle infield which is important.

 

The other side is a high OBP doesn't necessarily mean much in the playoffs because there is a lower OBP across the board due to the fact that you don't get to face the other teams 4-5 starters 40% of the time that you do in the regular season. Santana may make one mistake that PK can hit for the homer but you may not get the 2 base hits you need in an inning for JO to score.

 

I see advantages for both sides but lean toward the defense along with the OBP.

[qwerty]

if Konerko and Owens had identical OBP's, Owens stole 60 bases, Konerko bopped 40 home runs, which one would you pick?

 

Player b, konerko in this case, would win in a land slide, each and every single time. Owens has to rely on himself and his teamates just to get into second, and later on score. Konerko (player b/ whoever you wish to imagine) relies on no on other than himself to touch all four bases. For some reason i think a homerun just might be a bigger rattle to a pitcher than someone stealing a base. On base percentage is a great thing and all but you need people to slug them home time from time. People always say that you cannot rely on a homerun.... but more so the same goes for sitting back and waiting for the ''small ball'' approach (yes, i know that won it all for the white sox in 2005).

[ptatc]

Player b, konerko in this case, would win in a land slide, each and every single time. Owens has to rely on himself and his teamates just to get into second, and later on score. Konerko (player b/ whoever you wish to imagine) relies on no on other than himself to touch all four bases. For some reason i think a homerun just might be a bigger rattle to a pitcher than someone stealing a base. On base percentage is a great thing and all but you need people to slug them home time from time. People always say that you cannot rely on a homerun.... but more so the same goes for sitting back and waiting for the ''small ball'' approach (yes, i know that won it all for the white sox in 2005).

 

I think most people would agree with you. Chicks and GMs did the long ball. This will also drive his price up. Would PK be worth more than JO and Orlando Cabrera? Two speed and defense vs. one HR guy?

 

I'M SO DAMN CONFUSED!!!!

 

That's why I love baseball and it's offseason!!!!!

[qwerty]

I think most people would agree with you. Chicks and GMs did the long ball. This will also drive his price up. Would PK be worth more than JO and Orlando Cabrera? Two speed and defense vs. one HR guy?

 

I'M SO DAMN CONFUSED!!!!

 

That's why I love baseball and it's offseason!!!!!

 

Is owens really a defensive specialist though? Cabrera i can see having that claim. Konerko for cabrera straight up? The team trading konerko would easily net cabrera and the other player thrown into the mix would seemingly have to be much better than owens at the major league level. to make it even close. Owens seems like a legitimate fifth outfielder/4a type player and nothing more, but with time we shall see.

[ptatc]

Is owens really a defensive specialist though? Cabrera i can see having that claim. Konerko for cabrera straight up? The team trading konerko would easily net cabrera and the other player thrown into the mix would seemingly have to be much better than owens at the major league level. to make it even close. Owens seems like a legitimate fifth outfielder/4a type player and nothing more, but with time we shall see.

 

Your point is accurate. I was referring more to the type of players as opposed to the actual players. The jury is still out on JO. If it were these players at this point in their careers PK is the choice.

 

I know I'm in the minority but I think speed and defense will win in the playoffs and world series more than the HR.

[santo=dorf]

I know I'm in the minority but I think speed and defense will win in the playoffs and world series more than the HR.

Pitching is more important, and I recall the 2005 team hitting 200 home runs and homering in all but 2 playoff games.

[The Beast]

Well said and agreed. It was also a big reason for starting that season with a lead (scoring first) in 50-something odd games, IIRC.

My key stat for that title was the amount of games we won by 1 run. I believe we were 11-1 in those games in 2005.

[ptatc]

Pitching is more important, and I recall the 2005 team hitting 200 home runs and homering in all but 2 playoff games.

 

Sorry, I was referring to the offensive side. Pitching is always the most important factor. Which is why I consider the speed and defense the more important part of the position player role.

[santo=dorf]

My key stat for that title was the amount of games we won by 1 run. I believe we were 11-1 in those games in 2005.

 

not even close. That was our overall playoff record.

[ptatc]

Pitching is more important, and I recall the 2005 team hitting 200 home runs and homering in all but 2 playoff games.

 

Sorry, I was referring to the offensive side. Pitching is always the most important factor. Which is why I consider the speed and defense the more important part of the position player role.

[The Beast]

not even close. That was our overall playoff record.

My mistake, that's what it was. Still, the one run games thing was my key stat. I knew I was unsure of that one run stat. Oh well, I tried.

[lvjeremylv]

My mistake, that's what it was. Still, the one run games thing was my key stat. I knew I was unsure of that one run stat. Oh well, I tried.

If I counted correctly, the Sox were 35-21 in 1-run games in 2005.

 

Let's just all agree to agree on the fact that the 2005 White Sox had it all. We had very good starting pitching, a very good bullpen, a good mix of speed & power on offense, and that certain "it" that cannot be described. It was our year, and everything came together for us. Best sports year of my life - and most of you would probably feel the same way.

[santo=dorf]

You know what, you guys can bring up all those points, and while I'll acknowledge the need for OBP, you simply aren't going to be able to convince me that Podsednik's work on the basepaths wasn't a very important ingredient in the 2005 team. Yes, the pitching was the biggest part, no one doubts that. Yes, pitchers throw fastballs anyway. Yes, the guy only leads off once a game. Yes, Iguchi grounded out to 2nd to get Pods over to 3rd plenty of times. Yes, he only scored 80 runs (despite missing a month). But there was a reason why we made sure he got in the all star game. Because whether the stats say it or not, he was a huge part in a lot of those wins in the first half. Just watching the games, you could see it. You could see how big a difference he made on the basepaths, you could see how big a difference it made when he got hurt and was terrible/on the DL for 1.5 months. That's what my eyes told me. I think that's what the 10th in the 1st half and 18th in the 2nd half in runs scored tells me. Whether the stats say it or not, for the 2005 team, having that guy at the front of our lineup who stole 20 some bases in a row was damn important.

Pods, the all-star (because we all gathered with the anti-yankee fans to vote him in) in the first half when the Sox offense seemed to have a spark: .369 OBP, 44 SB, 9 CS

Pods when the second half Sox offense didn't appear to have "the spark"" .326 OBP, 15 SB, 14 CS

 

Think that difference in runs scored is related to a 43 point drop in OBP? Nah, didn't think so either. Just a coincidence.

[3E8]

80-44 w/Pods in 2005

19-19 without.

 

I got as fed up with Pods as everyone the last couple of years, but it's borderline retarded to say that he didn't have a big effect on that 2005 team.

That is not a scientific analysis.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

		Year	Record when Podsednik Starts	Record when Podsednik doesn't Start	Sox Winning % increase when Pods starts (%)
		2005	80-44	19-19	29
		2006	75-46	15-26	69
		2007	31-25	41-65	43

 

It seems as though in the years you were fed up with Podsednik, he had a greater impact on our win total (using your method) than he did in 2005. We should get him back from the Rockies and start him no matter what, we would probably take the division.

[Heads22]

<!--quoteo(post=1566653:date=Jan 29, 2008 -> 02:34 PM:name=Heads22)-->

<!--quotec-->80-44 w/Pods in 2005

19-19 without.

 

I got as fed up with Pods as everyone the last couple of years, but it's borderline retarded to say that he didn't have a big effect on that 2005 team.

That is not a scientific analysis.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

		Year	Record when Podsednik Starts	Record when Podsednik doesn't Start	Sox Winning % increase when Pods starts (%)
		2005	80-44	19-19	29
		2006	75-46	15-26	69
		2007	31-25	41-65	43

 

It seems as though in the years you were fed up with Podsednik, he had a greater impact on our win total (using your method) than he did in 2005. We should get him back from the Rockies and start him no matter what, we would probably take the division.

 

It's just something I borrowed from SoxMachine. I still stand by my statement that Pods had a tremendous effect on that team.