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QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 07:39 PM)
CT and NJ are Clinton firewall. A loss for Clinton here is a big chink in the armor.

 

That she didn't win those by large margins can't be a good feeling for them.

CT (15% Reporting) Obama 50% Clinton 48%

NJ (1% Reporting) Clinton 58% Obama 37% Edwards 4%

MA (4% Reporting) Clinton 52% Obama 46%

Edited by Athomeboy_2000
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QUOTE(Jimbo's Drinker @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 08:09 PM)
but losing almost all states. Mass, NY are big losses.

Clinton will win California.

 

But you have to remember that delegates are awarded proportionally, not winner take all like in a general election. And we knew Obama would lose New York.

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QUOTE(Jimbo's Drinker @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 06:09 PM)
but losing almost all states. Mass, NY are big losses.

Clinton will win California.

NY is a big loss in terms of delegates, yes, because Clinton should score a large win there. But MA was expected as a loss, and will probably come out close in terms of delegates if the exit polls are believable.

 

On the other hand, Obama already has big wins in Illinois and GA, which will close the delegate gap somewhat.

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Let me try and clear this up a bit. Obama was not expected to win a ton of states today. GA, AL, IL were expected wins. Beynd that, anyting is gravy. The goal was simply to keep the delegates close. The Obama campaign feels if they can keep it close after today (+ or - 50 delegates), Obama can move on to the individual states and campaign instead of trying to fight in 21 states against the CLinton name. He's much better when he can concentrate on a single state.

I think by the end of the of the Tuesday results rolling in, Obama will be down 30-40 delegates. VERY close.

Edited by Athomeboy_2000
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QUOTE(Tony82087 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 06:12 PM)
Ok guys, so what happens after tonight? Doesn't each canidate have to get to like 2000 dels to get a nomination? Will either one of them get that after tonight?

Neither side will be even close. And because most of the delegates are apportioned at the district level, we won't know a lot of the exact delegate counts until tomorrow. It's likely that each one will be somewhere around 900 tonight. Unless Obama wins more delegates, Hillary will have a lead because of her lead in Superdelegates, but it already seems like the "Tonight is big for Obama" mo might be forming, because demographically Super Tuesday was his weakness, and if he's pulling 44% of the white vote, that's enough to make it closer than it was supposed to be. From here, the campaign moves on to other states that are more demographically friendly to Obama (younger, more African Americans, etc.).

 

It's possible that we won't have a legit winner unto April. There's more of these in upcoming weeks in Feb, then there's about a month long lull in March before a last gasp in PA. Pennsylvania could well wind up looking like a 2nd Iowa.

 

It's also possible that superdelegates could decide this mess one way or another.

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