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QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 11:46 PM)
Chuck Todds breakdown (NM and CA not included)...

Obama - 659

Clinton - 623

 

If Hillary wins BIG in CA....

Obama - 841

Clinton - 837

 

So, OBAMA wins tonight!

 

wow. that's just absurd.

 

i mean honestly... if you just step back and look at those numbers that is just plain insanity. talk about a divided party...

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ya know what, this is gonna help McCain as well - while the republicans will have their nominee and will be "unified" the dems will be squabbling late into the summer...... if you couple that with a Huck VP... not looking good.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 10:35 PM)
Let me guess, Chris Matthews?

 

Hillary started off with about a 35-40 point lead in polling there a couple weeks ago. Those endorsements cut it in half. She had a huge built in lead in any media market hit by NYC.

No - it was the local affiliate here.

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OK, of the states reporting 60% plus, I read the current delegate count for the Dems being:

 

Obama: 692

Clinton: 595

 

That's the delegate count WITHOUT California and New Mexico. Clinton will do well in CA, but, can she make up 100 points between those 2 states?

 

By the way, early numbers in, Edwards may actually grab some delegates in NM.

 

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QUOTE(Reddy @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 11:48 PM)
wow. that's just absurd.

 

i mean honestly... if you just step back and look at those numbers that is just plain insanity. talk about a divided party...

Yeah, but look at the sheer numbers that are turning out. Anyone voting DEM right now will likely vote DEM come the actual election. I think we will have a more unified party than most and anyone backing Obama or Hillary will vote for the other one when all is said and done.

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QUOTE(Steve9347 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 11:59 PM)
Yeah, but look at the sheer numbers that are turning out. Anyone voting DEM right now will likely vote DEM come the actual election. I think we will have a more unified party than most and anyone backing Obama or Hillary will vote for the other one when all is said and done.

Not necessarily. Head-to-head polls suggest that McCain is currently looking better than Clinton in that matchup. Indepedents like McCain, and Clinton will galvanize the right.

 

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QUOTE(Steve9347 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 11:59 PM)
Yeah, but look at the sheer numbers that are turning out. Anyone voting DEM right now will likely vote DEM come the actual election. I think we will have a more unified party than most and anyone backing Obama or Hillary will vote for the other one when all is said and done.

 

yeah i know - i just think we need to keep from getting overly optimistic...

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 6, 2008 -> 12:28 AM)
Note that he was replying to the post about the storms. I think he was making a bad joke.

 

my really wasn't ACTUALLY a question it was more of a "are you kidding me?"

 

just thought it was a tad tasteless.

 

but in any case... interesting night - and i dont think it REALLY changes a damn thing in the end. lol

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QUOTE(Reddy @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 11:53 PM)
looking at the county breakdowns Edwards has a LOT of support in CA. Strange. Makes you wonder what would've happened had he stayed in.... *sigh*

 

He would have picked up a handful of delegates, maybe get to 30 total, and then drop out?

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According to RealPolitics, Obama has a slight lead at this point in pledged delegates - 696-688. But that is with only PART of California in there (about half), with a 50 delegate lead for Clinton. If things continue as is, she will probably just sneak past Obama in pledged delegates.

 

Looking at the next few rounds, Obama has a pretty big advantage. Plus he doesn't have money issues, and he's perceived in the press as having "won" last night.

 

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QUOTE(StrangeSox @ Feb 6, 2008 -> 05:40 AM)
He would have picked up a handful of delegates, maybe get to 30 total, and then drop out?

 

lol cept he would've had a lot of support in MO, TN, OK, AK, AL, GA as well. obviously he wouldn't have gotten a lot. but in any case it's pointless. oh well.

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QUOTE(Reddy @ Feb 6, 2008 -> 08:07 AM)
lol cept he would've had a lot of support in MO, TN, OK, AK, AL, GA as well. obviously he wouldn't have gotten a lot. but in any case it's pointless. oh well.

 

It would have given him more of a "kingmaker" role if this stays close through the next several rounds.

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QUOTE(whitesoxfan101 @ Feb 6, 2008 -> 12:52 AM)
So why aren't the women of California going to be ripped for being sexist when I can't hear 5 minutes of Obama talk without race being brought up? Hypocritical, but not surprising.

I was thinking that yesterday morning while I was driving to work. Blacks vote for Obama and he is the "black candidate" and clearly cant win whites. Clinton wins women an the press is "well, she's a woman. she should win women"

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