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kapkomet

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Exit Polls from Drudge:

 

OBAMA: Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37... Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45... Connecticut: Obama 53, Clinton 45... Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42... Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 30... Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48... Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46... New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47...

 

CLINTON: Arkansas: Clinton 72, Obama 26... California: Clinton 50, Obama 47... New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43... Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 31... Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41...

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QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 04:39 PM)
Hmmm, Clinton winning in California the big one there.

On all of those, you should remember they're very volatile and there could easily be odd margin of error effects all over the place. Those CA numbers have been around since 3:00 pm out here, so there's also still 4 more hours of voting on them. I believe Kerry had a decent sized lead in the early day exit polls in most of the key swing states back in 04.

Edited by Balta1701
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Perhaps more interesting, the exit polling data in GA says Obama won African Americans by 86-14 and narrowed his loss among white voters from the 24% he got in S.C. to earning over 40% in GA. That does bode well nationwide if those numbers hold up. Recent deciders say they broke 50-45 for Obama.

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QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 04:56 PM)
If the exit polls Drudge mentions are anywhere close to true, this is the best possible situation for Obama. Winning where he's supposed to, keeping it close in a lot of Hillary's firewall.

 

I think if these polls hold changes the narrative, and makes Obama the front runner.

The other potential issue, if Obama is pulling 85/15 amongst African Americans, it's possible that Hillary could fall below the viability threshold in some of these districts and grab some extra delegates there too.

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CNN projecting:

 

Conn: McCain

Mass: Romney

Ill: McCain and Obama

Okla: Clinton

 

MSNBC calls New Jersey for McCain.

 

Fox projects Hillary wins Tennessee.

 

And while McCain is winning most everywhere, the suggestion seems to be out there right now that he's actually underpeforming where he would have been expected to be.

Edited by Balta1701
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QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 07:32 PM)
Really surprising is that neither CT or NJ have been called for Clinton yet.

 

Arkansas called for Clinton and Huckabee, unsurprisingly.

Obama is leading in CT and NJ has less than 1% reporting. it could be that Clinton favored districts are the only ones reporting so far.

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QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 08:36 PM)
Obama is leading in CT and NJ has less than 1% reporting. it could be that Clinton favored districts are the only ones reporting so far.

CT and NJ are Clinton firewall. A loss for Clinton here is a big chink in the armor.

 

That she didn't win those by large margins can't be a good feeling for them.

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