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Now that Santana is Traded To The Mets/ Go for Crisp


Cleats67

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Swisher did play CF in a big park in Oakland though.

 

And he had a RZR rating in 2007 better than Aaron Rowand did in 2005 IIRC.

 

And he'll have less ground to cover at the Cell.

 

So I think he may surprise some people.

 

He won't be great, but hopefully we can pick up defensively in other areas e.g Cabrera over Uribe, Fields improving at 3rd, Quentin playing at LF (stud defender).

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QUOTE(qwerty @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 09:47 PM)
Where is the green?

 

No green wanted. I want them to give him a chance to win the CF job in ST, in a competion with the other two young guys. Ih he can turn it around and be even close to what we thought he could be, it'll be that much better for the team. If he fails, send him to AAA or move him to another team.

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I'd only do this if we can for sure trade dye or quentin as well and thats only if one of those bring in a significant upgrade. like maybe a Dye/quentin and danks/floyd/bullpen guy for a proven starter. Or if you can deal PK which i really dont wanna do. overall i say no to Coco, i think owens could be just as good.

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QUOTE(ptatc @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 09:24 PM)
you still need a guy in the mold of crisp or owens at the top of the lineup. Say what you will about the "numbers and OBP" is all that matters but I'll bet if you look at the past WS winners most of them had that type of player at the top.

 

Red Sox: Ellsbury

Cards: Eckstein

White Sox: Pods

Red Sox Damon

Marlins: Pierre

Angles: Eckstein

D-backs: Womack

 

Ellsbury was with the Red Sox for all of 33 games in 2007, during which he put up a .903 OPS (.394 OBP). He's not just a speed guy. He was a non-factor in the ALDS, and hit .250 / .333 / .250 in the ALCS. He was good in the World Series, but the Red Sox destroyed the Rockies. Ellsbury performing well probably didn't have all that much to do with their WS victory.

 

The 2006 Cardinals won all of 83 games, in the worst division in baseball. They happened to get hot at the right time. Eckstien had a .350 OBP, a robust .344 SLG, stole 7 bases, and was caught 6 times. How does he fit into this speedy/stealy mode, besides being awful at stealing bases like Pods is now, having no power like Pods and Owens, and not having a team at this time, like Pods?

 

Pitching is the main reason why we won in 2005, not Pods. Take away our pitching and we probably would've had the same record we did this year. Pods had an OBP of .351 with us in 2005, .375 in the postseason. He stole 6 bases in the postseason, but was caught 3 times. He also slugged over .600 in the World Series.

 

Damon had an OPS of .857 in 2004 (OBP of .380), with only 19 steals, and was caught stealing 8 times. How is this anything like Pods/Owens/Crisp? None of them have ever come close to this on the MLB level. Crisp was at .810 in 2005, and that's the closest.

 

Juan Pierre had an OPS of .781 in 2003, the second-highest of his career (probably the highest, since the other time he was close to this was in Coors). He had a .361 OBP, meaning he was on base a fair amount. When did Pods or Owens put an OBP up this high for us? When did Coco Crisp put an OBP near this in his entire MLB career?

 

Eckstien had an OBP of .363 in 2002, a .388 SLG, with 21 steals, 13 times caught stealing. This is better than his 2006 season, but is in-line with his career stats: no slugging ability, a decent/solid OBP, and a bad base stealer.

 

Tony Womack was absolutely awful in 2001: .266 / .307 / .345. His stolen base numbers were good -- the only part of his season that was: 28SB, 7 CS. He also stunk in the NLCS and World Series. Did he even lead off most of the year for them? That team won mostly because they had two Hall of Fame caliber starters in their rotation, and because Luis Gonzales had an OPS of 1.117. Please tell me how Womack was as or more important than Johnson/Schilling/Gonzalez, or how the Diamondbacks wouldn't have won the World Series without him.

 

If anything, the common thread between all the past World Series winning teams has been a leadoff hitter with an OBP over .350.

Edited by almagest
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QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 09:29 PM)
I've seen him play CF and wasn't impressed.

 

I don't need to be impressed by Swisher in CF. I know I'll be impressed by his bat, and getting that production from a center fielder will WAY more than make up for whatever degree to which he may be below league average in CF. I know I'll be impressed by Quentin's bat and his defense in LF. Any superiority that Owens has defensively over Swisher does not make up for how much more productive Quentin's bat will be than Owens'. Same goes for Crisp and some of the other "suggestions" I've seen like Dave Roberts and Chris Duffy. There is no sane reason to get any of these players when we have Owens. Owens can play center anytime Quentin, Swisher, Dye, Konerko, or Thome need a day off.

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QUOTE(Vance Law @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 10:52 PM)
I don't need to be impressed by Swisher in CF. I know I'll be impressed by his bat, and getting that production from a center fielder will WAY more than make up for whatever degree to which he may be below league average in CF. I know I'll be impressed by Quentin's bat and his defense in LF. Any superiority that Owens has defensively over Swisher does not make up for how much more productive Quentin's bat will be than Owens'. Same goes for Crisp and some of the other "suggestions" I've seen like Dave Roberts and Chris Duffy. There is no sane reason to get any of these players when we have Owens. Owens can play center anytime Quentin, Swisher, Dye, Konerko, or Thome need a day off.

 

Why is a double taken away defensively worth less than a double produced offensively? I've never quite understood this logic.

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QUOTE(YASNY @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 11:02 PM)
Why is a double taken away defensively worth less than a double produced offensively? I've never quite understood this logic.

 

It's not. But the difference in offense from Anderson to Swisher is much larger than the difference defensively from Anderson to Swisher, based on what we have seen from both players to this point.

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QUOTE(almagest @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 10:51 PM)
Tony Womack was absolutely awful in 2001: .266 / .307 / .345. His stolen base numbers were good -- the only part of his season that was: 28SB, 7 CS. He also stunk in the NLCS and World Series. Did he even lead off most of the year for them? That team won mostly because they had two Hall of Fame caliber starters in their rotation, and because Luis Gonzales had an OPS of 1.117. Please tell me how Womack was as or more important than Johnson/Schilling/Gonzalez, or how the Diamondbacks wouldn't have won the World Series without him.

Craig Counsell was the primary leadoff hitter that year. He posted a line of .275/.359/.362/.721 6 SB/8 CS.

 

So he was terrible on the basepaths and didn't slug worth a s*** but he did post a .359 OBP.

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QUOTE(almagest @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 11:25 PM)
It's not. But the difference in offense from Anderson to Swisher is much larger than the difference defensively from Anderson to Swisher, based on what we have seen from both players to this point.

 

While you may have a point, how much have we seen of Swisher in CF?

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We finally cut the fat from our line up and a few people are clamoring to bring it back. If were going to get a CFer go get Willits: High OBP, great bat cntrl, great defender, and good on the base paths with some more room for improvement esp if hes in our line up. I'd bet that he puts up a 730-750 OPS in '08.

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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 11:27 PM)
Craig Counsell was the primary leadoff hitter that year. He posted a line of .275/.359/.362/.721 6 SB/8 CS.

 

So he was terrible on the basepaths and didn't slug worth a s*** but he did post a .359 OBP.

 

So each leadoff hitter from a World Series team in the past 7 years had an OBP of >=.350, while the stolen base amount and ratio of success varied wildly. It certainly seems that OBP is more important to a team's success than the threat of a stolen base.

 

 

QUOTE(YASNY @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 11:28 PM)
While you may have a point, how much have we seen of Swisher in CF?

 

Not much, but stats-wise he seems to be at least average, possibly better than average. I certainly don't think he'll be bad enough to offset his offensive abilities over everything else we have... at least, I hope not.

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QUOTE(YASNY @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 11:02 PM)
Why is a double taken away defensively worth less than a double produced offensively? I've never quite understood this logic.

 

I doubt anyone's ever said that, and if they did, you couldn't call it logic. But I have a sneaking suspicion that in a full season, Swisher would hit more than one, and perhaps even several doubles. The cumulative run producing effect of all of the additional home runs, doubles, and walks from Swisher relative to Owens or Crisp or anyone else who has been mentioned will FAR OUTWEIGH the cumulative effect of runs saved by their superior defense relative to Swisher.

 

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QUOTE(Vance Law @ Jan 30, 2008 -> 11:12 AM)
I doubt anyone's ever said that, and if they did, you couldn't call it logic. But I have a sneaking suspicion that in a full season, Swisher would hit more than one, and perhaps even several doubles. The cumulative run producing effect of all of the additional home runs, doubles, and walks from Swisher relative to Owens or Crisp or anyone else who has been mentioned will FAR OUTWEIGH the cumulative effect of runs saved by their superior defense relative to Swisher.

 

Perhaps I should explain myself. Though I used a finite example, I was doing so to make a broader point. There seems to be an overwhelming emphasis on offense when evaluating a player's value on this board. Defense is just as important, if not more so. For over 100 years, the saying "Pitching and defense wins championships" has been a constant in baseball. Casey Stengel once said about Aparicio that he steals a hit game with his glove. That can have quite an impact over the course of a season. I'm not saying that offense is not important, because Casey's Yankees would always just beat out the pitching-defense-no hit Sox of those days, but the Yanks also had some pretty damn good pitchers and glovemen too, in addition to the thumpers. But a guy who can "go get 'em" in the field can be a pretty damn valuable piece of a championship ballclub. Brian Anderson did not produce at the plate, but in a big game I wanted him in CF over Mackowiak, for example.

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QUOTE(YASNY @ Jan 30, 2008 -> 11:27 AM)
Perhaps I should explain myself. Though I used a finite example, I was doing so to make a broader point. There seems to be an overwhelming emphasis on offense when evaluating a player's value on this board. Defense is just as important, if not more so. For over 100 years, the saying "Pitching and defense wins championships" has been a constant in baseball. Casey Stengel once said about Aparicio that he steals a hit game with his glove. That can have quite an impact over the course of a season. I'm not saying that offense is not important, because Casey's Yankees would always just beat out the pitching-defense-no hit Sox of those days, but the Yanks also had some pretty damn good pitchers and glovemen too, in addition to the thumpers. But a guy who can "go get 'em" in the field can be a pretty damn valuable piece of a championship ballclub. Brian Anderson did not produce at the plate, but in a big game I wanted him in CF over Mackowiak, for example.

 

In 2006 Brian Anderson saved at least one game that really mattered against the Indians with this glove. If he is in center and Swisher in left we will be a good team. If Owens or Swisher are in center we will be average. The affect on pitching as a result of bad defense is never really discussed. Aaron Rowand and Scott Podsednik cost Bobby Jenks a save in the World Series thus allowing a walk-off that never should happened.

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QUOTE(Jenks Heat @ Jan 30, 2008 -> 11:37 AM)
In 2006 Brian Anderson saved at least one game that really mattered against the Indians with this glove. If he is in center and Swisher in left we will be a good team. If Owens or Swisher are in center we will be average. The affect on pitching as a result of bad defense is never really discussed. Aaron Rowand and Scott Podsednik cost Bobby Jenks a save in the World Series thus allowing a walk-off that never should happened.

 

Thank you. That is a point I literally forgot to mention.

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QUOTE(Jenks Heat @ Jan 30, 2008 -> 09:37 AM)
In 2006 Brian Anderson saved at least one game that really mattered against the Indians with this glove. If he is in center and Swisher in left we will be a good team. If Owens or Swisher are in center we will be average. The affect on pitching as a result of bad defense is never really discussed. Aaron Rowand and Scott Podsednik cost Bobby Jenks a save in the World Series thus allowing a walk-off that never should happened.

This is only true if Anderson can be adequate with the bat. If Swisher is at Mackowiak's level defensively, then Anderson's D out there could be useful. If Swisher is sort of average out there, maybe at the level of say Erstad last year, then Anderson would need to be pretty darn good with the bat to make up the difference. I hated Mack in CF in 06 as much as anyone, but there were 2 parts to that; Mack wasn't that great with the bat, and he was that bad defensively.

 

And on Owens and Swisher in CF...well, last year Owens showed he was at least adequate out there. CF in Chicago is not the hardest position in the world to play, there's no crazy wind, there's not a lot of space, no crazy ivy or crazy corners or crazy bounces off the wall or anything like that. If Mr. Swisher can be average out there, then his bat is darn useful. THat's one thing to certainly keep an eye on in training camp and for the first month of the season.

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