Now that Santana is Traded To The Mets/ Go for Crisp

[iamshack]

I don't understand this desire to go get Crisp, Pierre, Patterson or the like at this point. For one thing, does anyone really think its worth lowering the team OBP significantly (which is what would happen), just to have a more prototypical leadoff hitter? That makes zero sense. And second, at least in the case of Pierre and Patterson, we already have that guy on the team for a lot cheaper.

 

This team really has only one big need at he major league level at this point - one more solid SP. Any other "needs" or issues, like not having a prototypical leadoff hitter, being weak at backup C, that sort of thing... is just not worth investing a lot in right now.

 

Well, to be fair, I believe most of the people in favor of acquiring Crisp assume he can get back to his levels pre-Boston. Should he do so, there is no question that a .345-ish OBP and an .800 OPS player would certainly raise our prospects of improving at the leadoff spot.

 

But assuming he will not return to that sort of production, yes, you're right, it makes little sense.

[iamshack]

Why does everyone think Crisp would be expensive to get? He's simply just not that good and still owed a lot of money. The Red Sox don't seem that delirious to me that they'd ask for a hell of a lot for their 4th OF.

 

Well, because anything that's been written in the media has suggested that. I can't remember off the top of my head what it was they were supposedly asking for in return when we inquired about him, but it was something substantial. Like Gio and Carter or something.

 

Now that may change as the Sawks are out of the Santana hunt and they are convinced going with Ellsbury is the best move, but I wouldn't expect them to give Crisp away for anything other than at least one top 10 prospect and others.

[Dick Allen]

With all this bashing of Crisp, what makes Quentin such a sure thing? He is often injured and not even 100% right now. Its also questionable whether he will be full strength by opening day. You can use his injury as an excuse for his miserable year in the major leagues in 2007, but if he was so banged up, why did he have no problem back at AAA? I would much prefer Crisp to Owens. Offensively and defensively.

[bear_brian]

I have posted previously on this notion of acquiring Coco. Wanting him is NOT strictly because of his offensive production. It is because without him we are playing Nick Swisher in center, asking Orlando Cabrera to lead off, and basically not presenting the "balanced approach" that KW talks about. Crisp would give us outstanding defense in center field, a .280 lifetime batting average, 20 to 30 stolen bases as well as the ability to take the extra base, speed to keep defenses honest, experience in leading off and is a switch hitter which adds to the overall versatility of our lineup.

 

If any of you think that Nick Swisher will be an above average center fielder (or, worse, will get hurt trying to make plays that he is unaccustomed in making) you are kidding yourself. If you think Jerry Owens is a good center fielder, likewise. Our competitors have Sizemore and Granderson. With our pitching staff and lack of defense at third base and right field, we need the best possible solution in center field. Crisp plays better defense than Anderson, will hit for a higher average (and hit lefties) better than Owens, and would simply make us a better ball club. All of you OBP-lovers need to look at the overall picture.

 

As to Quentin - I like his possibilities, but that is all there is at this time. If you keep him and let him spell Dye, Konerko (Swisher at first), Thome, and Crisp (Swisher in center), he would get 350 to 400 at bats.

[Kalapse]

With all this bashing of Crisp, what makes Quentin such a sure thing? He is often injured and not even 100% right now. Its also questionable whether he will be full strength by opening day. You can use his injury as an excuse for his miserable year in the major leagues in 2007, but if he was so banged up, why did he have no problem back at AAA? I would much prefer Crisp to Owens. Offensively and defensively.

1.) Quentin is already on the team so it won't cost any talent to acquire him

2.) He's going to make $10M less than Crisp over the next 2 years ($10M that could be better spent else where)

3.) He has far more offensive and defensive potential than Jerry Owens and more offensive potential than Crisp

4.) And most importantly IMO: he's not going to be asked to leadoff. Meaning if his offensive production is not all that great at least it will be in the 7th/8th hole as opposed to the very top of the order.

[Dick Allen]

1.) Quentin is already on the team so it won't cost any talent to acquire him

2.) He's going to make $10M less than Crisp over the next 2 years ($10M that could be better spent else where)

3.) He has far more offensive and defensive potential than Jerry Owens and more offensive potential than Crisp

4.) And most importantly IMO: he's not going to be asked to leadoff. Meaning if his offensive production is not all that great at least it will be in the 7th/8th hole as opposed to the very top of the order.

The roster spot Crisp would take would be Owens if it was up to me. There's a very good chance Owens is leading off for this team in 2008 if KW doesn't get anyone else. Would you rather have Owens or Crisp?

[bigruss]

The roster spot Crisp would take would be Owens if it was up to me. There's a very good chance Owens is leading off for this team in 2008 if KW doesn't get anyone else. Would you rather have Owens or Crisp?

Owens + Money saved + Prospects saved > Crisp

[Kalapse]

The roster spot Crisp would take would be Owens if it was up to me. There's a very good chance Owens is leading off for this team in 2008 if KW doesn't get anyone else. Would you rather have Owens or Crisp?

I guess if it came down to it and Crisp were able to be acquired for next to nothing from the Sawx I'd take him in CF/leading off over Owens. At least Crisp is an elite defender with a decent arm and the potential to post an .800 OPS (no matter how remote those chances may seem.)

[Dick Allen]

It's not that simple, and you know it. As Kal said, if Crisp was able to be acquired for scraps, that fine, give me Coco over Owens. However, everything I have seen suggests that Boston isn't looking just to dump him. Will the cost really be worth it when you already have someone with the same skill set as Crisp on the team?

You're saying Crisp and Owens have the same skill sets? What has Jerry Owens really ever done in the major leagues before Sept 1, 2007? I think, just like people around here think Quentin will have a .360 OBP, that Crisp when healthy can reach and exceed the numbers he put up in Cleveland. He's only about a year older than Owens. I really doubt KW is even interested in Crisp because of the acquisitions of Quentin and Swisher, but if they trade him to a team with a decent ballpark to hit in, it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of this board has a different opinion of him 8 months from now. The White Sox need someone to leadoff. Cabrera isn't the answer.

[iamshack]

I know you completely throw out September stats for everyone, but I don't look it that way.

 

-Last season, Owens put up a .267/.324/.312 line. Crisp, a .268/.330/.382.

 

I have said it time and time again. While I am know Owens fan, I have to call it like I see it. He played well after getting his 2nd call up, and earned the line he put up. Owens will be 27 when the season starts. If he was given a full season of AB's,(I hope he doesn't get them) I would expect him to be able to put up a OBP around .335, and stealing at least 40, with average D out in CF, mostly due to his arm. So now I ask...

 

1.Why isn't that a realistic projection?

2.Why should I expect Crisp to be able to put up numbers that much better than that? Numbers better enough that warrant the Sox giving up something of value to get Crisp.

 

It would be a waste of resources to acquire Crisp. We already have a very similar player on the roster.

 

Unless of course we were able to trade Owens back to a team like Washington for something of reasonable value, and get Crisp for some other resources we acquire through other moves, such as by trading Crede and/or Uribe. Then we're talking just a salary hit, which would probably be negated by the $10 million we ditched by dealing Crede and/or Uribe.

 

Then you're looking at a situation where you are platooning Crisp/Swisher/Quentin/Dye/Konerko/Thome, interchanging them based on pitching matchups, recent performance, who needs a rest, injury, etc.

 

I don't love the idea of giving up anything of value for Crisp, but given the fact that we still have a few pieces to move, and a definite sub-optimal solution defensively in CF and at the leadoff spot, it's difficult to argue that he would be of no use to this ballclub.

 

I'm not saying under the current scenario that Crisp would be a "perfect" addition, but should some other pieces fall into place, it is not impossible to see him having a clear and positive role on this team.

Edited January 31, 2008 by iamshack

[Dick Allen]

I know you completely throw out September stats for everyone, but I don't look it that way.

 

-Last season, Owens put up a .267/.324/.312 line. Crisp, a .268/.330/.382.

 

I have said it time and time again. While I am know Owens fan, I have to call it like I see it. He played well after getting his 2nd call up, and earned the line he put up. Owens will be 27 when the season starts. If he was given a full season of AB's,(I hope he doesn't get them) I would expect him to be able to put up a OBP around .335, and stealing at least 40, with average D out in CF, mostly due to his arm. So now I ask...

 

1.Why isn't that a realistic projection?

2.Why should I expect Crisp to be able to put up numbers that much better than that? Numbers better enough that warrant the Sox giving up something of value to get Crisp.

 

It would be a waste of resources to acquire Crisp. We already have a very similar player on the roster.

Owens has only had 1 month where he put up an OBP above .333. His entire stat line was distorted by an exceptional September of meaningless games. A month of games where even his manager said "Don't believe anything you see in September."

[Dick Allen]

Yet is going to let Owens try and win an OF spot in March, when games are actually meaningless...

You're right. That makes no sense. I love them, but the White Sox are very goofy in many ways.

[iamshack]

Owens has only had 1 month where he put up an OBP above .333. His entire stat line was distorted by an exceptional September of meaningless games. A month of games where even his manager said "Don't believe anything you see in September."

 

DA, I definitely smell what you are stepping in, but on the other hand, it's difficult to dismiss outright the progress Owens made in September. When you're talking about a guy who hasn't had a whole lot of major league ab's, as well as a guy who has shown improvement with the addition of more guidance and more ab's, I don't like the idea of saying "well, he did it in September against other teams' call-ups, so it doesn't really mean anything." Who's to say that the reason for his improvement in September (or at least part of the reason for his improvement) didn't have anything to do with him simply getting more ab's? Learning the speed of the game a bit more on the major league level? Gaining more confidence in himself? Getting more comfortable? Simply following a learning curve which is pretty consistent for all minor leaguers in their first few hundred ab's at the major league level?

 

How can you say that his improvement simply cannot be because of these factors, or some combination thereof?

 

I just don't think anyone can chalk up all of Owens' improvement in September because of September call-ups. If he comes out the first few months of the season and shows he is the same player he was when he first came up last season (and this very well may happen), then fine, chalk his September performance up to the call-ups then.

 

But right now, I don't think anyone can definitively say either way.

[qwerty]

I know you completely throw out September stats for everyone, but I don't look it that way.

 

-Last season, Owens put up a .267/.324/.312 line. Crisp, a .268/.330/.382.

 

I have said it time and time again. While I am know Owens fan, I have to call it like I see it. He played well after getting his 2nd call up, and earned the line he put up. Owens will be 27 when the season starts. If he was given a full season of AB's,(I hope he doesn't get them) I would expect him to be able to put up a OBP around .335, and stealing at least 40, with average D out in CF, mostly due to his arm. So now I ask...

 

1.Why isn't that a realistic projection?

2.Why should I expect Crisp to be able to put up numbers that much better than that? Numbers better enough that warrant the Sox giving up something of value to get Crisp.

 

It would be a waste of resources to acquire Crisp. We already have a very similar player on the roster.

 

Owens has absolutely no extra base power and is a weaker defender than crisp. His best comparison would be scott podsednik lite. At least he is fast i guess. Owens minor league slugging was .368 which will maybe on the high side hover around .350. Crisp on the other hand has a career slugging of .409 (took a big hit due to his last past two seasons).

 

Crisp's slugging the last four seasons.

 

.446

.465

.385

.382

 

I see there being a much better chance that crisp regains his old form (or somewhere in between the the numbers above) than i do owens being a productive major league hitter.

 

 

Btw, i am in no way saying that the sox should acquire crisp for anything of real value, but if he just so happened to fall in our laps...

[Dick Allen]

DA, I definitely smell what you are stepping in, but on the other hand, it's difficult to dismiss outright the progress Owens made in September. When you're talking about a guy who hasn't had a whole lot of major league ab's, as well as a guy who has shown improvement with the addition of more guidance and more ab's, I don't like the idea of saying "well, he did it in September against other teams' call-ups, so it doesn't really mean anything." Who's to say that the reason for his improvement in September (or at least part of the reason for his improvement) didn't have anything to do with him simply getting more ab's? Learning the speed of the game a bit more on the major league level? Gaining more confidence in himself? Getting more comfortable? Simply following a learning curve which is pretty consistent for all minor leaguers in their first few hundred ab's at the major league level?

 

How can you say that his improvement simply cannot be because of these factors, or some combination thereof?

 

I just don't think anyone can chalk up all of Owens' improvement in September because of September call-ups. If he comes out the first few months of the season and shows he is the same player he was when he first came up last season (and this very well may happen), then fine, chalk his September performance up to the call-ups then.

 

But right now, I don't think anyone can definitively say either way.

I actually was a Jerry Owens fan a couple of years ago, but I don't see it now. Perhaps if he showed the improvement everyone said he showed on his second call-up last season I might be on board, but hanging on the edge. It simply wasn't true. While his July was Ok, approximately what Crisp gives you on a worst case scenerio year, his August was about as bad as his September was good. So the 3 months after his callup for a bonafide major leaguer were: average, terrible, great. Great was also the kind of month Juan Uribe had in September.

[iamshack]

I actually was a Jerry Owens fan a couple of years ago, but I don't see it now. Perhaps if he showed the improvement everyone said he showed on his second call-up last season I might be on board, but hanging on the edge. It simply wasn't true. While his July was Ok, approximately what Crisp gives you on a worst case scenerio year, his August was about as bad as his September was good. So the 3 months after his callup for a bonafide major leaguer were: average, terrible, great. Great was also the kind of month Juan Uribe had in September.

 

So you're going to honestly argue that this isn't exactly the kind of inconsistency you see in guys that have a grand total of 365 major league ab's? Don't get me wrong- I am not arguing Owens is actually good- but this kind of inconsistency is what you often see from guys in their first several hundred major league ab's...

[DBAHO]

I actually was a Jerry Owens fan a couple of years ago, but I don't see it now. Perhaps if he showed the improvement everyone said he showed on his second call-up last season I might be on board, but hanging on the edge. It simply wasn't true. While his July was Ok, approximately what Crisp gives you on a worst case scenerio year, his August was about as bad as his September was good. So the 3 months after his callup for a bonafide major leaguer were: average, terrible, great. Great was also the kind of month Juan Uribe had in September.

The difference is there, it was what Uribe's 4th or 5th season in the majors, and it was Owens' 1st.

 

So you would expect for Jerry Owens to get better in the future. I would have him against RHP's in a 4th OF role, and have him leadoff on those occasions. Give him 2 or 3 starts a week, and allow for Cabrera to leadoff the rest of the time.

 

As for Uribe, I don't expect much good from him at all. He's had 4 seasons here, and has gone down offensively ever since his 1st.

 

With Crisp, if you could get him for MacDougal + say Shelby, I'd make the deal in an instant. Crisp if healthy (and that's a BIG if), would probably hit around .290 and have an OBP around the .350-.360 mark, with decent pop. But I doubt Boston is going to settle for that, and we don't have much else to deal.

[Dick Allen]

So you're going to honestly argue that this isn't exactly the kind of inconsistency you see in guys that have a grand total of 365 major league ab's? Don't get me wrong- I am not arguing Owens is actually good- but this kind of inconsistency is what you often see from guys in their first several hundred major league ab's...

Because, his "success" or basis for future success is based on a month of games that for all intents and purposes were meaningless. If he hit what he hit in August in September, just that 1 month, if the White Sox released him, or sold him to a Japanese team, no one would have thought anything about it. In fact, many here who think he's quite a prospect, would have said it is no loss. Now he has 1 great month, and suddenly he projects to being a good enough prospect to perhaps play a significant role on a team planning to contend for a championship? If that's all it takes, Lance Broadway should get a shot at being the White Sox ace and opening day starter in spring training.

Edited February 1, 2008 by Dick Allen

[Dick Allen]

The difference is there, it was what Uribe's 4th or 5th season in the majors, and it was Owens' 1st.

 

So you would expect for Jerry Owens to get better in the future. I would have him against RHP's in a 4th OF role, and have him leadoff on those occasions. Give him 2 or 3 starts a week, and allow for Cabrera to leadoff the rest of the time.

 

As for Uribe, I don't expect much good from him at all. He's had 4 seasons here, and has gone down offensively ever since his 1st.

 

With Crisp, if you could get him for MacDougal + say Shelby, I'd make the deal in an instant. Crisp if healthy (and that's a BIG if), would probably hit around .290 and have an OBP around the .350-.360 mark, with decent pop. But I doubt Boston is going to settle for that, and we don't have much else to deal.

If Jerry Owens was 22-24 years old, I would probably agree with you, but he's 27 or 28 and his legs are basically all he's got. Once he loses a step, he's putting his UCLA education to use.

[iamshack]

Because, his "success" or basis for future success is based on a month of games that for all intents and purposes were meaningless. If he hit what he hit in August in September, just that 1 month, if the White Sox released him, or sold him to a Japanese team, no one would have thought anything about it. In fact, many here who think he's quite a prospect, would have said it is no loss. Now he has 1 great month, and suddenly he projects to being a good enough prospect to perhaps play a significant role on a team planning to contend for a championship? If that's all it takes, Lance Broadway should get a shot at being the White Sox ace and opening day starter in spring training.

 

See, you're confusing my argument as suggesting that he is actually good. I'm not saying that. All I'm saying is that I don't think anyone can definitively state that his improvement was all due to September call-ups as opposed to his natural progression as a major league ballplayer with less than several hundred ab's.

[Dick Allen]

See, you're confusing my argument as suggesting that he is actually good. I'm not saying that. All I'm saying is that I don't think anyone can definitively state that his improvement was all due to September call-ups as opposed to his natural progression as a major league ballplayer with less than several hundred ab's.

I'm saying the evidence shows me his improvement has nothing to do with a natural progression. His batting average was higher in September than his OBP was every other month. A .340 BA with a .396 OBP is something I don't think we may ever see out of Owens again for an entire month. I don't think people realize just how bad his numbers were before this explosion. If they shut Owens down like they shut Danks down, and then told you Owens would be competing for a starting job in spring training, KW would have been beaten down at Soxfest. Another case of the White Sox not being consistent and therefore in my mind not making any sense. KW said Danks was shut down, not because he was getting killed, but because "we know what we have". I would like to ask KW exactly what do they have. How can anyone really know? Owens doesn't get shut down, does well, now Ozzie wants him to play and wants him to prove himself in spring training. Spring training and September, the 2 times he said not to believe what you see.

[sircaffey]

Can someone tell me what percent of Jerry's hits last season were infield singles? 83 of his 95 hits were singles which is pathetic already. I'm curious how many of his hits were based almost entirely on his speed.

Edited February 1, 2008 by sircaffey

[iamshack]

I'm saying the evidence shows me his improvement has nothing to do with a natural progression. His batting average was higher in September than his OBP was every other month. A .340 BA with a .396 OBP is something I don't think we may ever see out of Owens again for an entire month. I don't think people realize just how bad his numbers were before this explosion. If they shut Owens down like they shut Danks down, and then told you Owens would be competing for a starting job in spring training, KW would have been beaten down at Soxfest. Another case of the White Sox not being consistent and therefore in my mind not making any sense. KW said Danks was shut down, not because he was getting killed, but because "we know what we have". I would like to ask KW exactly what do they have. How can anyone really know? Owens doesn't get shut down, does well, now Ozzie wants him to play and wants him to prove himself in spring training. Spring training and September, the 2 times he said not to believe what you see.

 

Well, as is not unusual, we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

In my mind, there isn't a whole lot you can say to explain away the possibility of improvement which comprises what, 25-30% of his total major league at-bats? The "rest" of his at-bats which you claim proves he is not the player (or even close to the player) he was in September is simply not enough to convince me, nor most major league execs for players experiencing their first several hundred at-bats.

[Dick Allen]

Well, as is not unusual, we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

In my mind, there isn't a whole lot you can say to explain away the possibility of improvement which comprises what, 25-30% of his total major league at-bats? The "rest" of his at-bats which you claim proves he is not the player (or even close to the player) he was in September is simply not enough to convince me, nor most major league execs for players experiencing their first several hundred at-bats.

If its natural progression, Owens should be competing for a batting title, probably stealing 70 bases and will probably be very high in the MVP voting. Most players don't get any major league at bats before major league execs are convinced they can't hit. If Erstad and Pods don't get hurt again and again, chances are KW and Ozzie had seen enough after his first call up. Even Hawk said he wasn't considered a prospect anymore after the Sox sent him down last season.

[ptatc]

I don't know if his winter workload had any effect on his 2007 season, I just found it funny that the White Sox use 12 extra games in October has such a profound effect on the entire pitching staff, and then start spouting off about a guy who pitched an extra 20-25 games in November and December. It wasn't consistent. Unless Masset can cut down his walk rate, he can add 10 MPH on his fastball and he will still suck.

 

You look at history and it shows how starting pitching usually suffers the following year. It's not just the number of innings but the "stressful" innings.

 

I do agree with Masset could have been effected by the winter innings depending on his workload the season before. Too much during winter ball can definately make a difference.