Now that Santana is Traded To The Mets/ Go for Crisp

[santo=dorf]

Can someone tell me what percent of Jerry's hits last season were infield singles? 83 of his 95 hits were singles which is pathetic already. I'm curious how many of his hits were based almost entirely on his speed.

I'm curious as to how many of his infield hits came on weak-ass full swings.

[hitlesswonder]

Crisp if healthy (and that's a BIG if), would probably hit around .290 and have an OBP around the .350-.360 mark, with decent pop. But I doubt Boston is going to settle for that, and we don't have much else to deal.

 

Crisp's career OBP is .329. The last 3 years it's .332.

[BoogeyBaby04]

With all this bashing of Crisp, what makes Quentin such a sure thing? He is often injured and not even 100% right now. Its also questionable whether he will be full strength by opening day. You can use his injury as an excuse for his miserable year in the major leagues in 2007, but if he was so banged up, why did he have no problem back at AAA? I would much prefer Crisp to Owens. Offensively and defensively.

 

Major League pitching and AAA pitching are two different animals.

[knightni]

Major League pitching and AAA pitching are two different animals.

 

Welcome to Soxtalk!

 

[BoogeyBaby04]

Welcome to Soxtalk!

 

 

Thanks! I spend my time leering......or is it lurking?........anyway, I thought it'd be fun to join in every now and then!

 

[Dick Allen]

The bottom line is KW could acquire Rickey Henderson in his prime to lead off and if the White Sox pitch like they have the past 2 seasons, they will win nothing.

[iamshack]

The bottom line is KW could acquire Rickey Henderson in his prime to lead off and if the White Sox pitch like they have the past 2 seasons, they will win nothing.

 

Hmm...actually, I think they could possibly win the division if we could add Rickey in his prime....

[sircaffey]

Hmm...actually, I think they could possibly win the division if we could add Rickey in his prime....

 

Interesting stathead stat, Baseball Prospectus concluded in their book, Baseball Between the Numbers, that in Ricky's 130 SB season, his base running added a mere 5.1 runs over the course of the entire season (according to EqBR).

[South Paw]

Interesting stathead stat, Baseball Prospectus concluded in their book, Baseball Between the Numbers, that in Ricky's 130 SB season, his base running added a mere 5.1 runs over the course of the entire season (according to EqBR).

 

how would u get 5.1 runs

[iamshack]

Interesting stathead stat, Baseball Prospectus concluded in their book, Baseball Between the Numbers, that in Ricky's 130 SB season, his base running added a mere 5.1 runs over the course of the entire season (according to EqBR).

 

I'm thinking more about the season where he went .314/.419/.516 with 24 homers, 72 rbi, and stole 80 bases while being caught just 10 times....

[witesoxfan]

how would u get 5.1 runs

 

The same way you get an ERA of 3.5

[Melissa1334]

The same way you get an ERA of 3.5

[sircaffey]

I'm thinking more about the season where he went .314/.419/.516 with 24 homers, 72 rbi, and stole 80 bases while being caught just 10 times....

 

Yeah, not too bad.

[South Paw]

The same way you get an ERA of 3.5

 

yeah but era is an average

[GreenSox]

If we acquire Crisp, then the sox are just reacting, and not acting from a plan. Use our prospects to acquire 2 LF, when we need a CF. And if Swisher moves to 1B, what is already a really high price for a hitter of Swisher's level has now skyrocketed if that production is at 1B and not CF. And then, of course, we would have traded talent to get Quinten, who is now a bench player. Together, it makes no sense, and smells of reacting, instead of acting from a plan.

BTW we have a bad hitting good fielding CF (better fielder than Crisp) right now. Why do we want another?

 

Swisher can lead off - he's superb at getting on base.

 

Chone Figgins is in his contract year. Please don't trade talent for a hitter in his contract year.

[lvjeremylv]

Interesting stathead stat, Baseball Prospectus concluded in their book, Baseball Between the Numbers, that in Ricky's 130 SB season, his base running added a mere 5.1 runs over the course of the entire season (according to EqBR).

So you're trying to tell me that of the 130 stolen bases, or the countless times he advanced to 3rd on a sharp single, or scored from 1st on a double when other players would have pulled up at 3rd, or managed to stay out of a double play by beating the throw to 2nd, he only scored (when he otherwise would not have) once every 30 games? Please.

 

All these simulation and "what would have happened if..." and "what about when..." so-called stats are ridiculous and nobody should give them a second thought. Somehow a simulation model of something that happened 25 years ago becomes accepted as fact, and it's absurd.

 

Edit: And incidentally, I just looked up a SB-by-SB account of that season, and he stole home twice. So I guess other than that, his baserunning only added 3 runs? LOL. Nice "conclusion".

Edited February 5, 2008 by lvjeremylv

[iamshack]

So you're trying to tell me that of the 130 stolen bases, or the countless times he advanced to 3rd on a sharp single, or scored from 1st on a double when other players would have pulled up at 3rd, or managed to stay out of a double play by beating the throw to 2nd, he only scored (when he otherwise would not have) once every 30 games? Please.

 

All these simulation and "what would have happened if..." and "what about when..." so-called stats are ridiculous and nobody should give them a second thought. Somehow a simulation model of something that happened 25 years ago becomes accepted as fact, and it's absurd.

 

Edit: And incidentally, I just looked up a SB-by-SB account of that season, and he stole home twice. So I guess other than that, his baserunning only added 3 runs? LOL. Nice "conclusion".

 

I was too young to really realize the impact Rickey had on games in the beginning of his career, but to hear Hawk and DJ talk about him in his prime, they make him sound like the best offensive player in the league. I have a really hard time believing what BP said as well, especially considering all the things that happened because pitchers were so worried about him- whether that was during his at bat, while he was on base, or in their pitches to batters while he was on base. I really think he probably had a hand in a lot more runs that those 5.

[Kalapse]

I actually remember that piece about Henderson's base stealing, it was written by James Click. The entire point of the article was to evaluate what impact Ricky Henderson's base stealing had on the 1982 A's offensive production because even though he stole 130 bases that year his success rate was only 75%. The conclusion was that Ricky's 130 stolen bases only had a positive impact of a little over 1 run that season because he was also caught stealing 42 times. I think that might be where the 75% rule came from (or just an example of how the rule holds true), if a base runner steals bases at a 75% success rate he's actually right around the break even point value wise.

[iamshack]

I actually remember that piece about Henderson's base stealing, it was written by James Click. The entire point of the article was to evaluate what impact Ricky Henderson's base stealing had on the 1982 A's offensive production because even though he stole 130 bases that year his success rate was only 75%. The conclusion was that Ricky's 130 stolen bases only had a positive impact of a little over 1 run that season because he was also caught stealing 42 times. I think that might be where the 75% rule came from (or just an example of how the rule holds true), if a base runner steals bases at a 75% success rate he's actually right around the break even point value wise.

 

Of what can be quantified statistically.

[lvjeremylv]

I actually remember that piece about Henderson's base stealing, it was written by James Click. The entire point of the article was to evaluate what impact Ricky Henderson's base stealing had on the 1982 A's offensive production because even though he stole 130 bases that year his success rate was only 75%. The conclusion was that Ricky's 130 stolen bases only had a positive impact of a little over 1 run that season because he was also caught stealing 42 times. I think that might be where the 75% rule came from (or just an example of how the rule holds true), if a base runner steals bases at a 75% success rate he's actually right around the break even point value wise.

Well if you're going to assume that every CS is a run that is not scored, then yeah there might be a case to be made about that. But the fact of the matter is, if a player steals 130 bases vs. 42 times caught, the positive results are going to far outweigh the negative. Plus factor in what I mentioned before, the stretching a single into a double; a double into a triple; 1st to 3rd on a sharp single, etc...and there is no way in hell anyone can suggest he only had a positive impact of 5 runs over the course of the entire season.

[Kalapse]

Of what can be quantified statistically.

Well obviously there are no absolutes in a debate such as this.

[sircaffey]

Well if you're going to assume that every CS is a run that is not scored, then yeah there might be a case to be made about that. But the fact of the matter is, if a player steals 130 bases vs. 42 times caught, the positive results are going to far outweigh the negative. Plus factor in what I mentioned before, the stretching a single into a double; a double into a triple; 1st to 3rd on a sharp single, etc...and there is no way in hell anyone can suggest he only had a positive impact of 5 runs over the course of the entire season.

 

Rickey getting caught stealing isn't just taking the opportunity of scoring out of his own hands, it adds another out to the inning and takes away another player's opportunity to score a run. Also, I am sure Rickey got caught more than few times trying to stretch an extra base out. Getting thrown out has a much higher negative effect than stealing a base has positive. The stat wasn't that Rickey contributed only 5 runs over the course of the season, it's that his base running did. An average base runner adds 0 runs. Players like Konerko add negative runs. I don't think it's that hard to believe.

[lvjeremylv]

Rickey getting caught stealing isn't just taking the opportunity of scoring out of his own hands, it adds another out to the inning and takes away another player's opportunity to score a run. Also, I am sure Rickey got caught more than few times trying to stretch an extra base out. Getting thrown out has a much higher negative effect than stealing a base has positive. The stat wasn't that Rickey contributed only 5 runs over the course of the season, it's that his base running did. An average base runner adds 0 runs. Players like Konerko add negative runs. I don't think it's that hard to believe.

Well now you're splitting hairs. That's like saying "the stat wasn't that Barry Bonds contributed only 15 runs over the course of the season, it's that his power numbers did". You can't separate a player from his attributes. They're a package deal, good and bad.

[YASNY]

Rickey Henderson, in his prime, was a DEVASTATING offensive player. Sometimes I wonder if some of these staticians ever actually watch the game.

[almagest]

Well now you're splitting hairs. That's like saying "the stat wasn't that Barry Bonds contributed only 15 runs over the course of the season, it's that his power numbers did". You can't separate a player from his attributes. They're a package deal, good and bad.

 

Sure you can. All this says is, of the X runs that Ricky generated in this season, 5 can be attributed to his stealing prowess. Stats are meant to be broken down situationally -- this isn't much different than righty/lefty splits, or an average with RISP, for example.

 

Rickey Henderson, in his prime, was a DEVASTATING offensive player. Sometimes I wonder if some of these staticians ever actually watch the game.

 

Of course they did. The point is that stealing didn't contribute as much to Ricky's game as some people seem to think. He was more so an on-base and slugging machine.