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Rob Neyer: Ranking the Best Centerfielders


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Ranking the best center fielders (excerpt from the article below)

 

"Before I present the list of candidates for Best Center Fielder of the Next 5 Years, I'll tell you this: there are only three serious candidates for the No. 1 spot. Maybe four. See if you can spot them ...

 

Player Name Age OBP SLG OPS+ WARP

Curtis Granderson 27 .361 .552 136 10.4

B.J. Upton 23 .386 .508 136 5.7

Josh Hamilton 27 .368 .554 131 3.3

Hunter Pence 25 .360 .539 130 6.2

Nick Swisher 27 .381 .455 127 5.6

Carlos Beltran 31 .353 .525 126 8.4

Aaron Rowand 30 .374 .515 123 7.8

Torii Hunter 32 .334 .505 122 5.5

Ichiro Suzuki 34 .396 .431 122 8.7

Grady Sizemore 25 .390 .462 122 6.3

 

Those are the top 10 center fielders of 2007, OPS+-wise (and it's a long drop from Sizemore to No. 11 Marlon Byrd). Looking at a list of players with at least 50 games in center field last season, I see three others who should be considered, if only because of their youth: Arizona's Chris Young, New York's Melky Cabrera and Chicago's Felix Pie. One might also argue for Vernon Wells, who certainly is paid like a top-10 guy and should bounce back this year from his shoulder injury."

Edited by scenario
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And he had this comment about Grady Sizemore which I found interesting...

 

"And finally we come to Sizemore, and the most controversial thing I'm going to write today ... Sizemore is not a good center fielder. Am I sure about that? No. But I've got two systems in front of me -- BP's Fielding Runs and Dewan's +/- -- and both suggest that Sizemore's average with the glove. At best. Yes, they could be wrong. But these days the metrics have become sophisticated enough that if they come to a consensus about a player and you disagree, you have to figure out why they're wrong (it used to be the other way around). Last summer I wrote something about the Granderson-Sizemore comparison, and I came down (just barely) for Sizemore because he's 17 months younger. But his defense now gives me pause. While I think they'll be roughly the same hitter in 2008, I also think Granderson will play Gold Glove-caliber defense and Sizemore won't. If the Indians had a good center fielder in the minors, I might even predict that Sizemore will find a new position in a few years."

 

 

 

 

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QUOTE(scenario @ Feb 1, 2008 -> 12:51 PM)
Anybody with ESPN Insider access to see what he said about Swisher?

 

Interesting that he didn't mention Franklin Gutierrez as a possible replacement for Sizemore in center, who, from what Tribe fans say, is outstanding defensively....

 

 

 

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QUOTE(scenario @ Feb 1, 2008 -> 12:51 PM)
Anybody with ESPN Insider access to see what he said about Swisher?

 

Swisher played mostly right field with the A's, but according to this story he'll get most of his action with the White Sox in center. Initially, at least. My guess is he winds up in one of the corners within a few years.
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QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Feb 1, 2008 -> 01:57 PM)
Chris Young ranked #5.

 

???

 

Help me out here.

 

He's not in the top 10 on the list above.

 

Is there additional information inside the article or are you quoting another list?

 

And how is he going to rank 5th on any list with a .237 BA, a .295 OBP, and a .763 OPS?

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QUOTE(RockRaines @ Feb 1, 2008 -> 03:17 PM)
How could you rank Young, who has been not great at the plate, and also mention Pie who is god awful. Millege is better than Pie.

I think its because the article is actually about who will be the best for the next 5 years, not about those stats. I still don't know why he mentioned Pie.

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Which makes it all the more impressive that the Tigers just locked up Granderson for 5 more years at $30.25 million.

 

He gets $1 million this year, $3.5 million in 2009, $5.5 million in 2010, $8.25 million in 2011 and $10 million in 2012.

 

The Tigers have a $13 million option for 2013 with a $2 million buyout.

 

That contract's a bargain for a player of Granderson's caliber.

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So it works out like this:

 

PREARB: $1 million

ARB#1: $3.5 million

ARB#2: $5.5 million

ARB#3: $8.25 million

FA#1: $10 million

FA#2: $13 million team option

 

It's a good deal for both sides, I wouldn't exactly call it a bargain since he probably would have made around the same amount in the first 4 years of the deal anyway (so they didn't really save any money in the first 4 years, in fact they're going to pay him $600K more than they have to for '08) but now they're guaranteeing him that money and in exchange he gives them a *perceived* discount in the first year of free agency and a reasonable option for the second.

 

Good deal for both sides, risky for the Tigers but probably the smart move.

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