Kalapse Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 QUOTE(Princess Dye @ Feb 4, 2008 -> 04:39 PM) so, to educate a guy who doesnt know a ton about Quentin.... do we know for sure that his injury happened AFTER his minor league success last year? or can it still simply be that he's great at AAA and bad in the majors? The shoulder injury occurred in March. And it's not like he hasn't had major league success, he's been both great and terrible in the majors. It's most likely that he's just a young player who possesses incredible talent but who needs get healthy, avoid injuries and further development at the major league level. Here's how his 2007 season went: March: Tore his left labrum April: Started the season on the DL (missed about 2 weeks) May: Bad June: Bad July: 1.)Was demoted on the 6th 2.) Played incredibly well during his time at AAA 3.) Recalled from AAA on the 27th August: 1.) Suffered a moderate hamstring injury on the first day of the month that landed him on the DL 2.) Started a rehab assignment on the 19th and played poorly at AAA 3.) Activated from the DL on SEPT 1st 4.) Got a grand total of 11 ABs in the month of SEPT since the OF was full (Byrnes, Young, Upton) October: Underwent surgery to repair his torn left rotator cuff and labrum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Princess Dye Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 QUOTE(Kalapse @ Feb 4, 2008 -> 04:56 PM) The shoulder injury occurred in March. And it's not like he hasn't had major league success, he's been both great and terrible in the majors. It's most likely that he's just a young player who possesses incredible talent but who needs get healthy, avoid injuries and further development at the major league level. Here's how his 2007 season went: March: Tore his left labrum April: Started the season on the DL (missed about 2 weeks) May: Bad June: Bad July: 1.)Was demoted on the 6th 2.) Played incredibly well during his time at AAA 3.) Recalled from AAA on the 27th August: 1.) Suffered a moderate hamstring injury on the first day of the month that landed him on the DL 2.) Started a rehab assignment on the 19th and played poorly at AAA 3.) Activated from the DL on SEPT 1st 4.) Got a grand total of 11 ABs in the month of SEPT since the OF was full (Byrnes, Young, Upton) October: Underwent surgery to repair his torn left rotator cuff and labrum very interesting, thanks very much for that Ideally O-Cab can be a pseudo leadoff and we can platoon w/ this guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wsgdf_2 Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 (edited) PECOTA SAYS: .263/.349/.439 .788 OPS I'll take it. By the way, PECOTA also says Alexei Ramirez goes: .295/.342/.452 .794 OPS I'll take that too. Oh, and PECOTA says Swisher is good: .265/.373/.501 .874 OPS Edited February 6, 2008 by wsgdf_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daa84 Posted February 6, 2008 Author Share Posted February 6, 2008 QUOTE(wsgdf_2 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 10:02 PM) PECOTA SAYS: .263/.349/.439 .788 OPS I'll take it. By the way, PECOTA also says Alexei Ramirez goes: .295/.342/.452 .794 OPS I'll take that too. Oh, and PECOTA says Swisher is good: .265/.373/.501 .874 OPS considering PECOTA is just about the best predictor out there id say thats a damn good sign, if we get OPS near .800 from quentin, and if ramirez plays everyday at 2b with an .800 OPS our offense will be real good....whats it say for floyd, danks and contreras, as those guys will likely determine our success this year? oh and how about Dye and Cabrera? Im wondering if they think Dye will bounce back, and im wondering where Cabrera will be relative to his last year (im assuming lower) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knightni Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 QUOTE(wsgdf_2 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 10:02 PM) PECOTA SAYS: He was an underrated middle infielder, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wsgdf_2 Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 It says Floyd, Danks and Contreras are bad. It would take Egbert over all three of them: Egbert ERA 4.99 WHIP 1.55 K 91 BB 59 GB% 55% Contreras ERA 5.00 WHIP 1.48 K 81 BB 45 GB% 46% Floyd ERA 5.23 WHIP 1.52 K 70 BB 40 GB% 44% Danks ERA 5.54 WHIP 1.54 K 88 BB 47 GB% 41% HOWEVER, I asked Nate Silver about these guys in a BP chat a few weeks ago or so and he said: Tweezer (Naperville): Are Contreras, Danks and Floyd going to get hammered? Oh, and I don't mean at Jimbo's. Nate Silver: Let's look at their EqERAs, which assume a neutral park and defense (league average = 4.50): Danks 5.11 Floyd 4.87 Contreras 4.69 These aren't players that you'll want for your fantasy squad, but they aren't terrible by any means; basically you've got three #4 starters. With that said, there's a lot of risk on either side of those numbers, so it would behoove the White Sox to do something like follow through with their plans to sign Bartolo Colon. With the offseason activity, there's next to zero pitching depth in that organization, so the scary thing is what happens if one of those guys gets hurt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daa84 Posted February 6, 2008 Author Share Posted February 6, 2008 QUOTE(wsgdf_2 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 10:44 PM) It says Floyd, Danks and Contreras are bad. It would take Egbert over all three of them: Egbert ERA 4.99 WHIP 1.55 K 91 BB 59 GB% 55% Contreras ERA 5.00 WHIP 1.48 K 81 BB 45 GB% 46% Floyd ERA 5.23 WHIP 1.52 K 70 BB 40 GB% 44% Danks ERA 5.54 WHIP 1.54 K 88 BB 47 GB% 41% HOWEVER, I asked Nate Silver about these guys in a BP chat a few weeks ago or so and he said: Tweezer (Naperville): Are Contreras, Danks and Floyd going to get hammered? Oh, and I don't mean at Jimbo's. Nate Silver: Let's look at their EqERAs, which assume a neutral park and defense (league average = 4.50): Danks 5.11 Floyd 4.87 Contreras 4.69 These aren't players that you'll want for your fantasy squad, but they aren't terrible by any means; basically you've got three #4 starters. With that said, there's a lot of risk on either side of those numbers, so it would behoove the White Sox to do something like follow through with their plans to sign Bartolo Colon. With the offseason activity, there's next to zero pitching depth in that organization, so the scary thing is what happens if one of those guys gets hurt. haha i read that in the chat, which is basically why i asked you earlier for their PECOTAS, even those PECOTA projections aren't horrid.....they aren't good particularly, but in reality they are similar to what silver said Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 QUOTE(Kalapse @ Feb 4, 2008 -> 04:56 PM) The shoulder injury occurred in March. And it's not like he hasn't had major league success, he's been both great and terrible in the majors. It's most likely that he's just a young player who possesses incredible talent but who needs get healthy, avoid injuries and further development at the major league level. Here's how his 2007 season went: March: Tore his left labrum April: Started the season on the DL (missed about 2 weeks) May: Bad June: Bad July: 1.)Was demoted on the 6th 2.) Played incredibly well during his time at AAA 3.) Recalled from AAA on the 27th August: 1.) Suffered a moderate hamstring injury on the first day of the month that landed him on the DL 2.) Started a rehab assignment on the 19th and played poorly at AAA 3.) Activated from the DL on SEPT 1st 4.) Got a grand total of 11 ABs in the month of SEPT since the OF was full (Byrnes, Young, Upton) October: Underwent surgery to repair his torn left rotator cuff and labrum If he can get over the injury bug, I think Quentin will put up offensive numbers similar to Konerko's eventually. Maybe a few less homers, but a little higher OBP. He was a good pick-up for an A ball first baseman. Although Carter does have a chance to be real good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vance Law Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 QUOTE(wsgdf_2 @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 09:02 PM) PECOTA SAYS: .263/.349/.439 .788 OPS I'll take it. By the way, PECOTA also says Alexei Ramirez goes: .295/.342/.452 .794 OPS I'll take that too. Oh, and PECOTA says Swisher is good: .265/.373/.501 .874 OPS Wow, I don't buy that on Ramirez. To me the projection on Quentin is hedging on whether or not he's healthy. If he's legit healthy, I put him down for considerably better than PECOTA. .850 if healthy- way worse, and way fewer games if not. .788 is some combination of healthy and not healthy at various times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wsgdf_2 Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 QUOTE(Vance Law @ Feb 6, 2008 -> 02:37 AM) Wow, I don't buy that on Ramirez. To me the projection on Quentin is hedging on whether or not he's healthy. If he's legit healthy, I put him down for considerably better than PECOTA. .850 if healthy- way worse, and way fewer games if not. .788 is some combination of healthy and not healthy at various times. I was surprised by the Ramirez projection. I thiunk it's a lot better than the one he got from ZiPS. It sounds like Silver's buying it on Ramirez for whatever reason... here was another one of my questions: Tweezer (Naperville): Thanks for taking the Sox questions. How do you think their outfield will shake out? Will Quentin play well enough to keep Owens off the field? Given the choice, who should play CF, Quentin or Swisher? Oh... and what happened to Haeger? Nate Silver: Neither of those guys should really be playing center field, but given the Sox' options -- and Ozzie is pretty good about making the most of his 25-man roster -- it has to be Swisher in center and Quentin in left. However, the guy to keep an eye out for is Alexi Ramirez, who could wind up at either center field or second base (those crazy Cubans!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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