As of today, do you think the White Sox are legitimate AL contenders

[thedoctor]

edit on topic title: As of today, do you think the White Sox are legitimate contenders in the AL?

 

although there are still some potential moves pending with this team (crede, uribe come to mind), i don't think that we can expect anything major that greatly affects how our opening-day roster will look. with that said, do you think this sox team has a plausible chance of qualifying for the playoffs and contending for the american league championship?

 

although i am happy with a lot of the things kenny williams has done this offseason, i don't think he's done enough to make us any better than the red sox, indians, yankees, angels, or tigers. i do think he may have set us up in a better position for future seasons, but i don't see us as a playoff team or al contender in 2008.

Edited February 3, 2008 by thedoctor

[Hawkfan]

No, but there are some players on this team that give me hope for an upset

[daa84]

edit on topic title: As of today, do you think the White Sox are legitimate contenders in the AL?

 

although there are still some potential moves pending with this team (crede, uribe come to mind), i don't think that we can expect anything major that greatly affects how our opening-day roster will look. with that said, do you think this sox team has a plausible chance of qualifying for the playoffs and contending for the american league championship?

 

although i am happy with a lot of the things kenny williams has done this offseason, i don't think he's done enough to make us any better than the red sox, indians, yankees, angels, or tigers. i do think he may have set us up in a better position for future seasons, but i don't see us as a playoff team or al contender in 2008.

no i dont...i think this team is very similar to the 02-04 white sox...they are a pretty solid team that, if everything falls into place, specifically with the rotation and bullpen(not unlike 2005) can contend and compete...will they contend? they may stay in the race for a while, but in the end, by around the all star break i think the sox will start to find themselves a pretty significant amount behind the class of the AL central, which i think will be the tigers (if the tigers pen semi shows up)

 

if this at all makes sense, i think we will be competitive, but im not sure that we will compete for the division when its all said and done

Edited February 3, 2008 by daa84

[thedoctor]

and one more thing, my apologies on effing up my topic title. i'm not that good at the internets.

[bmags]

I think I'll enjoy watching this team, which is nice. I think we can make an upset but I do worry about Danks and Floyd.

[Vance Law]

Using Baseballmusings Lineup Analysis, I plugged in projections from Bill James. It projects we'd average about 5.53 runs per game.

 

 

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...451&Model=0

 

Using whatever projections Baseballmusings uses, it put Cleveland at 5.60. A key thing to note is that the Swisher and Orlando C. projections were for their old ballparks. Basically it's up in the air which of these teams will have a better offense. Personally, I'll take the Sox. And oh yeah, they project the Tigers to score 5.58 runs per game (yes that's with Cabrera).

 

All 3 teams have powerful offenses that will score a lot. It will come down to who has great seasons and who has mediocre/poor and who gets injured. All 3 teams have question marks in their rotation and in their bullpen. Who will perform best? I don't know. You don't know. I only know that Magglio and Granderson won't repeat their 2007 performances.

[Reddy]

Using Baseballmusings Lineup Analysis, I plugged in projections from Bill James. It projects we'd average about 5.53 runs per game.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...451&Model=0

 

Using whatever projections Baseballmusings uses, it put Cleveland at 5.60. A key thing to note is that the Swisher and Orlando C. projections were for their old ballparks. Basically it's up in the air which of these teams will have a better offense. Personally, I'll take the Sox. And oh yeah, they project the Tigers to score 5.58 runs per game (yes that's with Cabrera).

 

All 3 teams have powerful offenses that will score a lot. It will come down to who has great seasons and who has mediocre/poor and who gets injured. All 3 teams have question marks in their rotation and in their bullpen. Who will perform best? I don't know. You don't know. I only know that Magglio and Granderson won't repeat their 2007 performances.

 

right. we worry about Danks and Floyd and rightly so - but both the tigers and indians rotations are JUST as shaky if not MORE so. If the offenses are a wash, then i think it truly is anybody's game. all about how the pitching works out.

[WilliamTell]

I don't think so either. But I am excited for the season to begin.

[GreatScott82]

Im not worried about the pen anymore which is very nice. But im worried about Danks and Floyd.. If ONE of those guys step it up which certaintly is possible i think we can be in this thing... Right now its all Detroit and Clevelands to lose. And that doesn't have to be a bad thing for us. I want one more starter...

[RME JICO]

Using Baseballmusings Lineup Analysis, I plugged in projections from Bill James. It projects we'd average about 5.53 runs per game.

 

 

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...451&Model=0

 

Using whatever projections Baseballmusings uses, it put Cleveland at 5.60. A key thing to note is that the Swisher and Orlando C. projections were for their old ballparks. Basically it's up in the air which of these teams will have a better offense. Personally, I'll take the Sox. And oh yeah, they project the Tigers to score 5.58 runs per game (yes that's with Cabrera).

 

All 3 teams have powerful offenses that will score a lot. It will come down to who has great seasons and who has mediocre/poor and who gets injured. All 3 teams have question marks in their rotation and in their bullpen. Who will perform best? I don't know. You don't know. I only know that Magglio and Granderson won't repeat their 2007 performances.

The best lineup they use is pretty interesting. I know it only goes off stats, but this is the best one listed:

 

1. Nick Swisher

2. Jim Thome

3. Carlos Quentin

4. Josh Fields

5. Paul Konerko

6. Jermaine Dye

7. Danny Richar

8. AJ Pierzynski

9. Orlando Cabrera

Edited February 3, 2008 by RME JICO

[maggsmaggs]

If KW can get two vets for the rotation to compete with the young guys and Contreras (because based on last season, there is now way to give him a spot yet,) I will be much happier. Maybe its Kris Benson or someone else, but we need competition for the last three rotation spots. However, I think the backend of the rotation will be the downfall in this team and I am not confident at all that Danks, Floyd or Contreras will post better than 5.00 ERAs. I think as built right now we are an 85 win ballclub at best. But hey, we will have a chance at beating the Twins 4-5 times more this year, so that could help.

[ChWRoCk2]

Yeah but if I understand that analysis right it means we would get that many runs if we batted Swisher and Thome 1 and 2.

 

Which is pretty unrealistic.

 

 

[kapkomet]

In a word, NO.

 

 

[Reddy]

Yeah but if I understand that analysis right it means we would get that many runs if we batted Swisher and Thome 1 and 2.

 

Which is pretty unrealistic.

 

which is a shame. i'd love to see us actually put up a nontraditional yet more effective lineup like that. in reality, it only makes sense to give your top producers the most ABs

[sircaffey]

No. Although I am excited pretty much just to see Quentin play.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

edit on topic title: As of today, do you think the White Sox are legitimate contenders in the AL?

Yes.

Edited February 3, 2008 by South Side Fireworks Man

[Soxpranos]

Are you kidding me, with Danks and Floyd in our rotation? Not to mention that our 3 veterans were not that good.

[elrockinMT]

and one more thing, my apologies on effing up my topic title. i'm not that good at the internets.

 

 

That's ok Jungle Jim. I don't particularly believe in predictions in baseball, but at this point in the season we are tied for 1st place. (smile)

Edited February 3, 2008 by elrockinMT

[knightni]

Solid 3rd place in the Central, maybe second.. perhaps the WC if they can replace Garland with a better SP than Floyd and maybe get a real leadoff guy.

 

 

[farmteam]

Not really, but if they do it wouldn't really surprise me. I think a lot of people forget that many players had subpar years last year. With the additions, plus, to borrow a phrase from Woodrow Wilson, "A return to normalcy," I'll think we'll be better than most people think. That said, the Tigers and Indians are definitely better. I think our lack of a true leadoff hitter and an untested back-end of the rotation will hurt us.

[TLAK]

Not really, but if they do it wouldn't really surprise me. I think a lot of people forget that many players had subpar years last year. With the additions, plus, to borrow a phrase from Woodrow Wilson, "A return to normalcy," I'll think we'll be better than most people think. That said, the Tigers and Indians are definitely better. I think our lack of a true leadoff hitter and an untested back-end of the rotation will hurt us.

The phrase was from Warren Harding.

[thedoctor]

That's ok Jungle Jim. I don't particularly believe in predictions in baseball, but at this point in the season we are tied for 1st place. (smile)

 

this is the type of overwhelming optimism that keeps me coming back to soxtalk.

 

[haroldbainesknees]

On paper Cleveland and Detroit are better. I know Cleveland has a lot of high end talent in their lineup, Matinez, Sabathia, Pronk, Garko etc. However, Cleveland really succeeded last year on the two Cy-Young caliber seasons of Sabathia, and Carmona. I'm not sure it is realistic to expect duplicate years like that from both of those guys, especially Carmona since he's 23. Oh and Borowski is also their closer.

 

Detroit also has some issues;

 

Pen-Zumaya out half the year, Jones as the closer (nuff said), Grilli, Rodney, as primary set-up guys. YES GRILLI

 

Willis first year in AL central. Robertson turned into a innings eater type starter last year.

 

A return to the "past perfromance mean" for Ordonez, and Polanco; and maybe-maybe Granderson

 

Another year older for Pudge, IROD is 36 yo opening day, .296 OBP in 07, 11 bombs in 07; lowest total since strike shortened 95. Another year older for Sheffield, Carlos Guillen. They can have off years similar to the yeras had by Dye, Konerko in 07. Right?

 

 

Bonderman has thrown 923.3 major league innings before his 25th birthday, he had elbow problems last year and really tapered off. If he breaks down; in the near future; TJ surgery; I wouldn't be surprised.

 

Yes Miggy Cabrera is a monster, but he is notorious for indifference to training, eating right etc, eventually that may hurt him though not likely in 2008.

 

So while the Tigers and Tribe may be better, they are not without their flaws and vulnerabilities.

 

In the spirit of an election year campaign sometimes its funner to tear down and smear your opponents than look at your own flaws.

 

 

[Rex Kickass]

I don't think we're stacked up to be a great team, but we've got the tools to be a few better than .500. And that can easily make us a contender. So probably.

[BlackBetsy]

To me, this is an 84 win team as a baseline. An 84 win team will win 94 games maybe 2-5% of the time. So I think that about sums up their chances to be legitimate contenders.

 

The wild card is the performance of the 3/4/5 in the rotation. If they perform (collectively) at an ERA+ of something like 100, this is more like a 90 win team. If the 3/4/5 in the rotation are an ERA+ of 88 (roughly what Contreras/Danks/Floyd were in 2007), it's an 80 win team.

 

Contreras, Danks and Floyd are the fulcrum of the 2008 team.