As of today, do you think the White Sox are legitimate AL contenders

[witesoxfan]

Why is Cleveland "the team to beat"? Because they had a great year in '07?

 

They had ALOT of things go right for them this year.

 

For example: How many of their players had career best years... or played waaaay above their career averages? Pretty much everyone offensively except Hafner... and their entire bullpen... and two of their starters.

 

I think they're in for a BIG letdown if they're expecting repeat career best performances from almost everyone on the team.

 

Name the players who had career years. Carmona came out of nowhere, but I really don't think they had that many players play over their head.

[scenario]

Name the players who had career years. Carmona came out of nowhere, but I really don't think they had that many players play over their head.

 

I went through the 2007 and career stats of every player on their team before I posted. Look 'em up and you'll see.

[RockRaines]

]

 

The best case scenario: Crede shines in spring training... So does Danks or Floyd and we package them both in a deal to San Fran for Cain.. it will most likely cost Danks because of his young age and upside.. If the Giants are desperate for a 3B like many out there say im sure they would consider pulling the trigger. That would leave us a stong 1-2-3 with Buerhle, Vaz, and Cain and it would put even less pressure on Floyd and Contreras on the bottom half.

If you were a GM, would you trade one of the best young starters in the game, and your future Ace for many years for a future back of the rotation starter and a rent a 3B that isnt much of an improvement over the player you just let sign with another team. I sure as s*** wouldnt.

[Balta1701]

So, as one of the positive people...right now, I think the White Sox have the players where if things go well, they could easily compete with any other team in the league. Even with Danks and Floyd and all of the things everyone is so scared about.

 

However, they are not legit contenders yet. They're not contenders until they start winning some games. There's an awful lot of pitfalls that could get in the way. Maybe more than other teams yes, but this is why they play the games. We've got a team. Let's play some. And see what happens.

[Kalapse]

OPS+ by year:

 

Sizemore:

'05: 123

'06: 132

'07: 122 (lowest of career by 1 point)

 

Hafner:

'04: 162

'05: 168

'06: 179

'07: 118 (lowest of career by 46 points)

 

Martinez:

'04: 125

'05: 130

'06: 121

'07: 127 (second highest of career though only 2 points higher than his second worst)

 

Peralta:

'05: 137

'06: 83

'07: 100 (league average)

 

Garko:

'06: 113 [limited action]

'07: 117

 

Barfield:

'06: 96

'07: 54 (dreadful)

 

Blake:

'03: 93

'04: 122

'05: 99

'06: 114

'07: 101 (league average and actually a disappointing season from blake)

 

Dellucci, Nixon and Michaels were all injured and terrible.

Franklin Gutierrez posted a 103 OPS+ in a limited role [close to league average]

Asdrubal Cabrera posted a 101 OPS+ in a limited role [close to league average]

Lofton was ok in his 173 ABs

 

I'm having trouble finding any position players who had career years. Martinez was his usual awesome self. Their best hitter was absolutely dreadful compared to his past production, Sizemore took a step back from his '06 numbers and the rest of their outfield was a disaster until Gutierrez stepped in with average production (though below average for RF.) Their opening day 2B had a terrible season and his August replacement was league average at best.

 

In the starting rotation Carmona broke out with a 154 ERA+ so I guess you could argue he's not actually that good. Sabathia posted a 143 ERA+ which is 3 points higher than his ERA+ in '06 though he's always an injury risk and has had some consistency issues early in his career, 07 was the best combination of healthy/good he's had in his career.

 

Byrd was league average, Westbrook was just as good as he was in '06 (108/107 ERA+) though no where near as good as he was in '04 (129 ERA+) and Sowers and Lee were very BAD in their 33 combined starts.

 

They had 3 breakout seasons in the pen (Betancourt, Lewis, Perez), Fultz was also excellent but their closer was terrible.

[T R U]

God I love Kalapse so much

[CWSGuy406]

See, or scenario's statement to be correct, you have to be willing to believe that young players who play at a slightly higher level than they've played at before is the same thing as having a "career best year" -- which is completely ludacris logic.

 

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I'd say the biggest downfall on this team is looking like it's defense. I can see scenarios where our offense 'collectively' is well above average. I can see scenarios where I see the rotation being average or a bit better than average. I can see scenarios where the bullpen is dy-no-mite(!). But I can't see any scenarios where this Sox team as currently constructed is -- at best -- average defensively. I see two *clearly* above average defenders, and one of those two is going to be stuck in LF when he should be in RF. I should probably amend that to three spots -- second base will probably be average or a bit better with Uribe getting time at second.

 

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I don't know if it belongs here, but PECOTA's Alexei Ramirez projection would make a lot of people happy here. Anyone have it handy? I'm not a subscriber. I want to say it was along the lines of .270/.330/.450 (err, here it is from SoxMachine -- .295/.342/.452). If there's one projection that I hope PECOTA is right on, it's Ramirez -- having him as a shortstop/centerfielder for the next four years at all of $1 million bucks (per year) would be wonderful.

 

One more edit -- I should also say that I doubt Ramirez hits that projection (formulating a projection for a guy transitioning from the Cuban league to the majors has got to be difficult).

Edited February 4, 2008 by CWSGuy406

[scenario]

I've looked, and I'm with Wite. Who are these players?

 

Pitching

 

CC - best year of his career. Career low ERA. Career low walks. Career high strikeouts. In 7 full seasons, he's only had 3 years with an ERA under 4.00. This year, 3.21 and wins the Cy Young. Pretty much the definition of a career year. So now, he's supposed to keep pitching in the low 3's every year? Reminds me of what people thought about Buehrle after 2005.

 

Carmona - far and away the best year he's had at any level. Had a 4.00+ ERA in AA. Had a 4.00+ ERA in AAA. Had a 5.00+ ERA in both AAA and MLB in '06. Wasn't even projected to be in the rotation in '07. But when their 4th and 5th starters sucked (both with 6.00+ ERA) this year and got demoted, they were forced to put him in. And then almost pulls off the Cy Young? Puhhleease... That's like finding a winning lotto ticket on the street. Let's see what he looks like this year. He pitched around 100 innings (between majors and minors) in 2006 and 215 innings in 2007. Should be interesting to see how he (and the league) adapts to his second full year. According to Tom Verducci's 'Year-After-Effect', Carmona is due for an injury or a signficant bump in ERA in 2008.

 

Rafael Betancourt - Had a 3.81 ERA in 2006 (not bad) and a 1.47 ERA in 2007. That's approximately one-half of his career average ERA (2.80). But... that is supposed to happen again this year, right?

 

Rafael Perez - no years in minor close. Had a 3.66 in AAA when he got promoted and had a 1.78 at the major league level this year??

 

Jensen Lewis - had over a 3.00 ERA in college; a 3.90 ERA in A-ball/AA last year. And this year he steps up and has a 2.15 ERA in the majors??

 

Aaron Fultz - 2nd best year of his career at age 34. Has had only two years in MLB with an ERA under 4.50. And he had a 2.92 ERA this year?

 

That group made up half of their starter innings and almost 70% of their relief innings. Does anyone believe that these were NORMAL years that will be repeated????

 

 

Offensively

 

Vic Martinez had the best year of his career. 30 points above his career average OPS. 23 points over his previous career high. Had career highs in hits, doubles, homeruns, and RBI's. He lead the Tribe in homeruns. Could he meet or exceed those numbers again? Maybe. But that doesn't change the fact that this was his best year in a 6-year MLB career. And he turns 30 in 2008.

 

Jhonny Peralta: not his best year offensively with .771 OPS, but definitely his second best. Let's see which Jhonny shows up this year. In '06, he had a .708 OPS and his pathetic defense almost got him bumped from the lineup.

 

Casey Blake: he's older than Jermaine Dye and just had the 3rd best year of his career with a .777 OPS... only the 3rd year of his career with an OPS over .750.... and he'll be 35 in August. So... expect repeat performance... or age-related decrease?

 

Grady Sizemore had better power numbers in '06, but had his second best OPS this year. And his OBP of .390 was 21 points higher than his career average and 15 points better than his previous career high.

 

Gutierrez, Garko, and Asdrubal Cabrera... they had nice years, although it's hard to say whether their productivity was above or below average because they don't have enough time in MLB yet to draw a baseline. But consider this... in terms of minor league numbers: Ryan Sweeney > Franklin Gutierrez; Danny Richar > Asdrubal Cabrera; Josh Fields >> Ryan Garko. So make your own decision about what to expect.

 

 

So, bottom line:

- Their pitching FAR exceeded expectations based on the history of the players, particularly the bullpen.

- Several key players had very good years offensively that have to be categorized among their best years.

- Several young players contributed at levels above expectations which could easily drop next year. (For example: Why should their young guys, who were inferior hitters in the minors to our young guys, be projected to do better? They shouldn't if someone is looking at it objectively.)

Edited February 6, 2008 by scenario

[Controlled Chaos]

Shazzam...well thought out, fact based points in two posts? Where am I?? Well done guys.