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Is it too soon?


gosox41

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Spring training is only 13 days away and since I'm bored and football is over, I wanted to get an early start on what I remember being a mega thread the last couple years here and at other sites.

 

Can we officially start our annual thread about Jenks lack of velocity of his fastball??? :lolhitting

 

I love the insanity that sometimes occurs around here.

 

 

 

 

Bob

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 3, 2008 -> 10:47 PM)
LOL.

 

After last year...Hell, as long as nothing's actually hurting, he's proven he's on the path from becoming a good thrower to a great pitcher.

 

This will probably be one of the only post I'll agree with, if this thread gets bigger.

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if i immortalize myself on the first page of this thread, i'll be able to see myself 2 months from now when i'm heading to page 66! awesome!

 

but yeah, jenks has earned a free pass for this season, i'd say, considering that was our "only concern" before last season. everything else was solid gold ;)

 

i know, that's untrue, we were pretty antsy about the 5th starter and history actually proved us right on that one. that may be the only time our concerns have turned out to be the correct ones.

 

on a side note, i seem to recall people saying they'd be happy with Danks's progress if he posted an ERA ~5.5. now i dont have the stat book next to me, but if i recall correctly, mission accomplished. yet these same people are declaring Danks dead, which doesn't make sense to me. are their criteria for judging a player's progress flawed or are they just being hypocritical? I dunno, but what I saw last season was plenty of Buehrle-like potential and plenty of room for growth (i.e. suckiness).

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i thought danks was pitching very well for his experience and age and then it was clear he just got fatigued. Home runs were getting hit on him, but early in the season they were a lot of solo shots that happened because he was challenging batters when no one was on base. I liked what I saw early on. I think he can be a reliable #4 this year.

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QUOTE(bmags @ Feb 4, 2008 -> 01:11 AM)
i thought danks was pitching very well for his experience and age and then it was clear he just got fatigued. Home runs were getting hit on him, but early in the season they were a lot of solo shots that happened because he was challenging batters when no one was on base. I liked what I saw early on. I think he can be a reliable #4 this year.

139 innings for the year and he's fatigued? That's not a good thing.

 

Pre-All Star break he posted a very solid (for a rookie pitching in the AL) 4.62 ERA. It was after the break where it went bad, as his ERA post-break was 7.12.

 

Those numbers would tend to prove what you suggest is true. Also take into account that July is when it really heats up and the balls fly out of US Cellular like they used to at Coors Field - that in and of itself probably accounts for at least a half run increase a game. Hopefully he's worked hard this off-season to stretch his arm out so he can give us a full season of starts. If he can pitch 160+ innings, I'd say that's a fairly solid job. Somewhere around 175-180 would be ideal. Save that bullpen as much as possible.

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QUOTE(bmags @ Feb 4, 2008 -> 02:11 AM)
i thought danks was pitching very well for his experience and age and then it was clear he just got fatigued. Home runs were getting hit on him, but early in the season they were a lot of solo shots that happened because he was challenging batters when no one was on base. I liked what I saw early on. I think he can be a reliable #4 this year.

 

 

I think he was challenging batters early on (and in spring training) by throwing strikes early in the count. With that, you will give up the homers but he was effective in that a lot of them were solo shots. He tried to be too finesse after the ASB and tried to nip corners, etc. and he fell behind a lot. Then he was forced to challenge batters with hitter's counts and when that happens, you struggle. Yes, he might have been fatigued but I think the bigger change in the performance pre and post ASB was his approach early in counts...throwing strikes vs. falling behind.

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QUOTE(heirdog @ Feb 4, 2008 -> 08:29 PM)
I think he was challenging batters early on (and in spring training) by throwing strikes early in the count. With that, you will give up the homers but he was effective in that a lot of them were solo shots. He tried to be too finesse after the ASB and tried to nip corners, etc. and he fell behind a lot. Then he was forced to challenge batters with hitter's counts and when that happens, you struggle. Yes, he might have been fatigued but I think the bigger change in the performance pre and post ASB was his approach early in counts...throwing strikes vs. falling behind.

 

thanks. I was out of state after the allstar break and this was what I heard from poster's here. What I liked about early danks was he wasn't afraid to challenge hitters inside, which was what encouraged me so much. I'd hate to see the homers have scared him.

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QUOTE(heirdog @ Feb 4, 2008 -> 02:29 PM)
I think he was challenging batters early on (and in spring training) by throwing strikes early in the count. With that, you will give up the homers but he was effective in that a lot of them were solo shots. He tried to be too finesse after the ASB and tried to nip corners, etc. and he fell behind a lot. Then he was forced to challenge batters with hitter's counts and when that happens, you struggle. Yes, he might have been fatigued but I think the bigger change in the performance pre and post ASB was his approach early in counts...throwing strikes vs. falling behind.

 

It makes sense to me that if Danks problem was in fact fatugue, that he became afraid to challege hitters early in the count, because he was afraid of his stuff at that point. Instead he was just trying to beat people with the perfect pitch, which usually leads to 3-2 counts and walks.

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Feb 4, 2008 -> 02:46 PM)
It makes sense to me that if Danks problem was in fact fatugue, that he became afraid to challege hitters early in the count, because he was afraid of his stuff at that point. Instead he was just trying to beat people with the perfect pitch, which usually leads to 3-2 counts and walks.

 

I really believe Danks experienced mental fatigue more than physical. He wasn't supposed to make the team and he ends up in the starting rotation. That's pressure, and it takes experience to learn how to deal with pressure (see Eli Manning). Danks was kind of thrown to the wolves, and as a rookie he held his own for a while. I believe he'll be better just due to the experience he received.

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Feb 4, 2008 -> 02:46 PM)
It makes sense to me that if Danks problem was in fact fatugue, that he became afraid to challege hitters early in the count, because he was afraid of his stuff at that point. Instead he was just trying to beat people with the perfect pitch, which usually leads to 3-2 counts and walks.

 

Sometimes it really is just that simple. Nice analysis.

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