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Livan Hernandez-To The Twins


jasonxctf

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The Twins should have just gone with one of their young starters such as Glen Perkins, and use the $5M more wisely (e.g on relievers, a hitter for their lineup).

 

Instead they've signed a starter, who in the AL Central could put up a 6.00 ERA this season.

 

Really don't like the move from the Twinkies perspective.

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Well, it looks like some of our guys (mainly young players) will get some stats up alittle bit now (doesn't hurt that Johan is gone as well.)

 

QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Feb 12, 2008 -> 04:45 PM)
The Twins should have just gone with one of their young starters such as Glen Perkins, and use the $5M more wisely (e.g on relievers, a hitter for their lineup).

 

Definitely. Hell, even a signing bonus for a high/overslot draft pick would have helped for the future (even if that really isn't their M.O.)

Edited by SoxAce
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I mean people here saw what happened to Jose Contreras 1st hand last season. It was only because of his numbers in August and September that he didn't finish up with an ERA above 6.

 

Hernandez has less in the tank IMHO. He's moving from the NL, and into a division where you've got at least 2 top 5 offensive teams argubly in baseball in Detroit and Cleveland, while the Sox could easily rebound, and the Royals are getting a little better.

 

Unfortunately that's the current market for veteran starting pitching. Shows how important it is to develop your own.

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QUOTE(SoxAce @ Feb 12, 2008 -> 04:49 PM)
Well, it looks like some of our guys (mainly young players) will get some stats up alittle bit now (doesn't hurt that Johan is gone as well.)

Definitely. Hell, even a signing bonus for a high/overslot draft pick would have helped for the future (even if that really isn't their M.O.)

 

This moves the Twins up in the 2009 draft. That's the motivation behind this move.

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QUOTE(sircaffey @ Feb 12, 2008 -> 07:51 PM)
This moves the Twins up in the 2009 draft. That's the motivation behind this move.

 

Saves the mileage on some of their young arms. And teams are always looking for an innings down the stretch, even if it's just to be a 5th starter or a long reliever.

 

I actually really like this move for the Twins; Livan is going to start 30+ games for them, throw 200+ innings, and if everything pans out right for them, he'll net them a prospect come deadline time. Not that it's like an earth shattering move by any stretch of the imagination, but a lot is probably going to have to go right for the Twins to compete this year anyways. May as well bring in a guy who is as much of a guarantee as any to throw 200 innings for you.

 

Honestly, what kind of hitter or reliever are you going to get for $5 mill on a 1 year deal right now? Probably a pretty terrible one, if anything, and the Twins scouting/developing is so good that they don't have to go spend a ton on their top draft pick.

 

I do figure he's probably 2-4 years older than his listed age...pitchers don't burst onto the scene at 22 and then fall off the map at 31-32. That's a pretty meaningless point on a 1-year deal though.

 

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2008 -> 11:34 AM)
Johan Santana :whichway Livan Hernandez.

 

I'd say the Twins kinda have Liriano replacing Johan, and Livan replacing Silva. Anyway, I like that the Sox will be hitting against this bad pitcher. witesox makes some interesting points. I believe Livan has pitched the most innings in baseball since 2003, so he will eat a lot of innings. But on the other hand, what good is that if those innings are as bad as they're expected to be? "Livan, could you stop eating all of these? You suck." ERA+ of 91 and 95 the last 2 years, and now he's going from the NL West to the AL Central. Wouldn't the Twins have someone or some combination of young starters who would benefit from pitching the major league innings? Especially if this is just a "practice season" for Minnesota.

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QUOTE(knightni @ Feb 12, 2008 -> 11:10 PM)
Is the HumpDome a hitters or pitchers park?

 

Or does it depend on when they turn the fans on? :)

 

 

Metronome last year was the second worst hitter's park in the AL after Oakland (yeah, Swisher!). 2005-2007 it was 3rd worst with Safeco at #2.

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QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Feb 13, 2008 -> 01:49 PM)
Saves the mileage on some of their young arms. And teams are always looking for an innings down the stretch, even if it's just to be a 5th starter or a long reliever.

 

I actually really like this move for the Twins; Livan is going to start 30+ games for them, throw 200+ innings, and if everything pans out right for them, he'll net them a prospect come deadline time. Not that it's like an earth shattering move by any stretch of the imagination, but a lot is probably going to have to go right for the Twins to compete this year anyways. May as well bring in a guy who is as much of a guarantee as any to throw 200 innings for you.

 

Honestly, what kind of hitter or reliever are you going to get for $5 mill on a 1 year deal right now? Probably a pretty terrible one, if anything, and the Twins scouting/developing is so good that they don't have to go spend a ton on their top draft pick.

 

I do figure he's probably 2-4 years older than his listed age...pitchers don't burst onto the scene at 22 and then fall off the map at 31-32. That's a pretty meaningless point on a 1-year deal though.

Maybe it's part of their 3 year plan or something. Trade Nathan now for some very nice prospects, waste this season, get your young SP's feet wet next season, and then be ready to contend in 2010.

 

And yeah Livan will eat innings for them, he's extremely durable, the thing is, most of those innings just won't be very productive for the Twins. And no you can't really get much on the FA market right now, but that $5M could have been used earlier (maybe to make more of an effort to keep Torii Hunter, I dunno).

 

I'll be surprised if anyone trades for him at the deadline though, he'd have to produce pretty well for that to happen, and I don't see that occuring.

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QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Feb 14, 2008 -> 03:37 PM)
I'll be surprised if anyone trades for him at the deadline though, he'd have to produce pretty well for that to happen, and I don't see that occuring.

The D-Backs dealt for him, didn't they? If I'm the Twins and my scouting dept. has produced hidden gem after hidden gem, and I'm trying to rebuild for a year or so...why not take a flyer on a guy like Livan, and see if I can't steal a gem from someone who isn't expecting it.

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Well Livan had a 5.34 ERA for Washington pitching in a real big pitchers park in the NL.

 

Is anyone going to trade for him if he has an ERA over 6, just because he is a veteran who can log innings?

 

Because that's the most likely scenario I see occuring here.

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QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Feb 14, 2008 -> 05:51 PM)
Well Livan had a 5.34 ERA for Washington pitching in a real big pitchers park in the NL.

 

Is anyone going to trade for him if he has an ERA over 6, just because he is a veteran who can log innings?

 

Because that's the most likely scenario I see occuring here.

 

I don't see an ERA over 6, not when he's pitching in the dome

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QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Feb 14, 2008 -> 03:51 PM)
Well Livan had a 5.34 ERA for Washington pitching in a real big pitchers park in the NL.

 

Is anyone going to trade for him if he has an ERA over 6, just because he is a veteran who can log innings?

 

Because that's the most likely scenario I see occuring here.

Imagine this scenario. The White Sox start off hot, but their 5th starter (pick one) wins 1 game every 2 years. We can call this scenario "2003-2004 White Sox". But, they're still in the playoff hunt. Picking up a legit 5th starter would save the bullpen and give you a shot at winning a few of those games, which could even over 2 months translate to 4-5 more wins in the standings, and which would leave both the bullpen and the rest of the starting rotation more fresh for the playoff hunt. In that case, if the Twins asked us for some random player that they liked who wasn't our top guy, and maybe some money, sure, of course you do that deal. Every year there's a team or two like that. Had the Mets done a deal like that last year, they make the playoffs.

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