If Sox sign Bartolo, How much?

[Texsox]

I was thinking it was cheap for a pitcher who put up the numbers that Colon did during his prime. I think it would provide a carrot, er cheeseburger, for him to chase this year.

 

I had to go back and read, you said mutual option, that would probably be in the ballpark. For some reason I was thinking that it would be either a team or a player option, and that would not work. I could also see a team option at $13 and a player option at $8 with a release number of $1 or similar.

 

All figures in millions

[Balta1701]

Exactly,if he is satisfied with a minor league contract he will go wherever the hell he wants.Most of the teams in the league would give him a minor league deal.

If we give him a major league deal, we're guaranteeing that Danks will wind up in the minor leagues because we'd have to buy Colon's contract out right away to put him down in AAA for anything other than a short rehab stint.

 

So, let's imagine this, fairly likely circumstance. Danks comes out and has an excellent spring. Works on his cutter, has success, looks better than next year. We pay Colon $4 million. Colon comes out throwing 85 and can't get anyone out. Oh, and Floyd and Contreras do fine also.

 

If you give Bartolo a major league deal, then essentially the Sox have no choice but to put him on the major league roster right away and hope that he can work through his problems, otherwise the money was a waste. So Colon comes out and for April, and May, and part of June, goes like 1-12. Eventually we finally cut him, but we've basically destroyed our season and lost a year of arbitration eligibility for Danks in the process.

 

Is this guaranteed? No. Colon could come out and still throw 95+ (although I think someone would have signed him if he had that left in him). But if you can't send him to the minor leagues, if you give him a major league deal with guaranteed money, you're guaranteeing him a rotation spot whether or not he earns it. It'd be just like Erstad/Anderson all over again. Danks could go the entire spring without giving up a hit or a walk and the Sox still would have to send him to the minors.

[WCSox]

If we give him a major league deal, we're guaranteeing that Danks will wind up in the minor leagues because we'd have to buy Colon's contract out right away to put him down in AAA for anything other than a short rehab stint.

 

So, let's imagine this, fairly likely circumstance. Danks comes out and has an excellent spring. Works on his cutter, has success, looks better than next year. We pay Colon $4 million. Colon comes out throwing 85 and can't get anyone out. Oh, and Floyd and Contreras do fine also.

 

If you give Bartolo a major league deal, then essentially the Sox have no choice but to put him on the major league roster right away and hope that he can work through his problems, otherwise the money was a waste. So Colon comes out and for April, and May, and part of June, goes like 1-12. Eventually we finally cut him, but we've basically destroyed our season and lost a year of arbitration eligibility for Danks in the process.

 

Is this guaranteed? No. Colon could come out and still throw 95+ (although I think someone would have signed him if he had that left in him). But if you can't send him to the minor leagues, if you give him a major league deal with guaranteed money, you're guaranteeing him a rotation spot whether or not he earns it. It'd be just like Erstad/Anderson all over again. Danks could go the entire spring without giving up a hit or a walk and the Sox still would have to send him to the minors.

 

I see your point, but I don't see why that means that Danks would automatically be sent down. If Mark, Javy, Jose, and Bartolo can't be sent down, that still leaves the #5 spot open for Danks. Or is Floyd or somebody that I'm not aware of out of options? And of course, the Sox could always put Colon on the DL with an ambiguous, fake "arm injury" at the beginning of the season if he really sucks in ST. That would give him extra time to build up arm strength. If he still can't hit the upper 80's on the radar gun by May, he gets cut.

 

I don't think that Bartolo accepts a minor-league deal and I don't think that anybody guarantees him $4 million. What would seem more likely is $1-2 million guaranteed with a ton of incentives. He would then essentially audition for a spot in the rotation in ST. That's not a tremendous gamble for a guy who's only 2 1/2 years removed from a Cy Young.

 

[witesoxfan]

If we give him a major league deal, we're guaranteeing that Danks will wind up in the minor leagues because we'd have to buy Colon's contract out right away to put him down in AAA for anything other than a short rehab stint.

 

So, let's imagine this, fairly likely circumstance. Danks comes out and has an excellent spring. Works on his cutter, has success, looks better than next year. We pay Colon $4 million. Colon comes out throwing 85 and can't get anyone out. Oh, and Floyd and Contreras do fine also.

 

If you give Bartolo a major league deal, then essentially the Sox have no choice but to put him on the major league roster right away and hope that he can work through his problems, otherwise the money was a waste. So Colon comes out and for April, and May, and part of June, goes like 1-12. Eventually we finally cut him, but we've basically destroyed our season and lost a year of arbitration eligibility for Danks in the process.

 

Is this guaranteed? No. Colon could come out and still throw 95+ (although I think someone would have signed him if he had that left in him). But if you can't send him to the minor leagues, if you give him a major league deal with guaranteed money, you're guaranteeing him a rotation spot whether or not he earns it. It'd be just like Erstad/Anderson all over again. Danks could go the entire spring without giving up a hit or a walk and the Sox still would have to send him to the minors.

 

And there's absolutely nothing stopping the White Sox from putting him on the DL. If Colon sucks and looks injured, they aren't just going to trot him out there for 3 months and hope that he just recovers his form.

 

Also, while it's fairly likely that Danks will look better than last year, that also isn't saying much, because at the end of last year, he looked absolutely pitiful.

 

Colon at $4 million would be a good investment; if he sucks, it's cheap enough that the Sox can just let him sit on the DL all year or cut him. But if he's strong and produces, it's a hell of an investment and could be the difference between the Sox going .500 and making the playoffs.

[Balta1701]

I see your point, but I don't see why that means that Danks would automatically be sent down. If Mark, Javy, Jose, and Bartolo can't be sent down, that still leaves the #5 spot open for Danks. Or is Floyd or somebody that I'm not aware of out of options?

Yes, Gavin Floyd is out of options. And unless some team comes walking up to the Sox with some crazy deal for Floyd, as much time as they've invested in him, as much as they've tried to build him up, they're not dumping him.

[WCSox]

Also, while it's fairly likely that Danks will look better than last year, that also isn't saying much, because at the end of last year, he looked absolutely pitiful.

 

Well, to be fair, Danks looked pretty good over the first three months and I'd attribute much of his struggled later on to his arm not being conditioned to handle a major-league season.

 

Colon at $4 million would be a good investment; if he sucks, it's cheap enough that the Sox can just let him sit on the DL all year or cut him. But if he's strong and produces, it's a hell of an investment and could be the difference between the Sox going .500 and making the playoffs.

 

Agreed. If Kenny can move Uribe, giving Colon $4 million would be a wash. And even if he can't, it's still not a heck of a lot of money.

 

Yes, Gavin Floyd is out of options. And unless some team comes walking up to the Sox with some crazy deal for Floyd, as much time as they've invested in him, as much as they've tried to build him up, they're not dumping him.

 

Even if Floyd is out of options, he could always be sent to the 'pen for mop-up duty if he isn't ready for the #5 spot. And if Colon sucks in ST, he can either be cut or put on the DL with some sort of fake injury. If he hasn't found his velocity by the end of April, they can cut him.

 

Edited February 21, 2008 by WCSox

[Balta1701]

Even if Floyd is out of options, he could always be sent to the 'pen for mop-up duty if he isn't ready for the #5 spot. And if Colon sucks in ST, he can either be cut or put on the DL with some sort of fake injury. If he hasn't found his velocity by the end of April, they can cut him.

Of course...the other problem with that statement is that our pen is now pretty darn full. In fact, we have more pitchers out there than we have spots for. Jenks, Thornton, MMac, Dotel, Linebrink, Logan...Wasserman, and Masset.

 

And for the icing on the cake...Masset is also out of options, and lord knows we're not going to want him walking for nothing either. So Wasserman is probably the odd man out as the righty with minor league options left, so I think he'll start the season in the minors.

 

But if you want to stick Floyd out there...either you do so and wind up with only 1 lefty because you send Logan down as he's the only other guy with options remaining, or you cut Masset. In other words, thanks to the Dotel signing, the bullpen isn't an option for these guys either until rosters expand/someone hits the DL.

[WCSox]

Of course...the other problem with that statement is that our pen is now pretty darn full. In fact, we have more pitchers out there than we have spots for. Jenks, Thornton, MMac, Dotel, Linebrink, Logan...Wasserman, and Masset.

 

And for the icing on the cake...Masset is also out of options, and lord knows we're not going to want him walking for nothing either. So Wasserman is probably the odd man out as the righty with minor league options left, so I think he'll start the season in the minors.

 

But if you want to stick Floyd out there...either you do so and wind up with only 1 lefty because you send Logan down as he's the only other guy with options remaining, or you cut Masset. In other words, thanks to the Dotel signing, the bullpen isn't an option for these guys either until rosters expand/someone hits the DL.

 

I see what you're saying, but it's not like "Wild Thing" MacDougal couldn't be cut (I imagine that he might end up being the mop-up guy), or even dealt if somebody wanted him. Agreed that the roster is crowded and not terribly flexible right now, but there's always a way if you look hard enough. Plus, if the Sox were to give Colon a Prior-like major-league deal - even if it is just for a Spring Training audition - the risk/cost would be negligible. Since '08 isn't supposed to be a "The Kids Can Play" rebuilding year, I'd rather see what Colon looks like in ST (if possible) than just pencil Floyd or Masset into the #5 spot. As much as I like Floyd's stuff/potential and the way that he finished last season, I'm still not sold on the guy being a major-league pitcher.

 

[Kalapse]

MacDougal still has an option remaining.

[haroldbainesknees]

1 year 1.5-2 mil with incentives for games started and quality starts.

 

I would suggest we insert weight and fitness clauses into the deal as well.....but who are we kidding it's Colon.

[Dick Allen]

Of course...the other problem with that statement is that our pen is now pretty darn full. In fact, we have more pitchers out there than we have spots for. Jenks, Thornton, MMac, Dotel, Linebrink, Logan...Wasserman, and Masset.

 

And for the icing on the cake...Masset is also out of options, and lord knows we're not going to want him walking for nothing either. So Wasserman is probably the odd man out as the righty with minor league options left, so I think he'll start the season in the minors.

 

But if you want to stick Floyd out there...either you do so and wind up with only 1 lefty because you send Logan down as he's the only other guy with options remaining, or you cut Masset. In other words, thanks to the Dotel signing, the bullpen isn't an option for these guys either until rosters expand/someone hits the DL.

Why are you so high on Masset? He is 17 games under .500 in his minor league career with a WHIP of 1.47 and an ERA of 4.53. In the major leagues his ERA is 6.35. He has a hard time with control. I'm not ripping you, I'm just curious. Unless he shows a ton this spring, you may be the only one losing sleep over his walking away for nothing.

Edited February 23, 2008 by Dick Allen