HuskyCaucasian Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 As i said, i am sure or "pump prices" will go up, but I am ok with that if i know that a few cents for every gallon I fill up goes to new companies pushing for new technologies and a better and cleaner tomorrow. PS: It's only a matter of time that these gas companies start buying up "alternate energy" companies and the cycle starts all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Feb 27, 2008 -> 07:23 PM) As i said, i am sure or "pump prices" will go up, but I am ok with that if i know that a few cents for every gallon I fill up goes to new companies pushing for new technologies and a better and cleaner tomorrow. PS: It's only a matter of time that these gas companies start buying up "alternate energy" companies and the cycle starts all over again. Hell, I couldn't care less if Exxon, BP, and Shell were the ones running the alternative energy companies and getting huge subsidies to do so. The benefits of getting us off of oil and coal would be so tremendous for everyone that no one should really care who the profits go to as long as it gets accomplished, and to some extent you shouldn't even really care about the total cost because the benefits are so high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 There's a lot of the "new technology" that the oil companies already own from a patent standpoint. Why do you think that nothing gets done? It's because the oil companies control it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 27, 2008 -> 06:43 PM) can anyone say S-T-A-G-F-L-A-T-I-O-N? signed, cknolls. Corn-All time high Wheat-All time high Crude Oil-All time high Heating Oil-All time high Gasoline-All time high Gold-All time high Euro Currency-All time high Yup, no inflation there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 This next president is inheriting one hell of a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Feb 28, 2008 -> 07:48 AM) Corn-All time high Wheat-All time high Crude Oil-All time high Heating Oil-All time high Gasoline-All time high Gold-All time high Euro Currency-All time high Yup, no inflation there... In all seriousness, this might be the worst economic crisis since 1929. I'm not being a smart ass, either. Unless something drastically changes, and quickly, we could be in a LOT of trouble. The credit markets need to get moving again, and if that doesn't happen, the Fed could lose control of the whole damn thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 28, 2008 -> 07:52 AM) In all seriousness, this might be the worst economic crisis since 1929. I'm not being a smart ass, either. Unless something drastically changes, and quickly, we could be in a LOT of trouble. The credit markets need to get moving again, and if that doesn't happen, the Fed could lose control of the whole damn thing. If they pass the stupid bill to "save" the housing market, you might as well flush the economy down the toilet and annoint whoever gets elected as a one term President, because there would be no saving this economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 28, 2008 Author Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 28, 2008 -> 08:52 AM) In all seriousness, this might be the worst economic crisis since 1929. I'm not being a smart ass, either. Unless something drastically changes, and quickly, we could be in a LOT of trouble. The credit markets need to get moving again, and if that doesn't happen, the Fed could lose control of the whole damn thing. As far as the credit market goes, here is yet another problematic dynamic to think about... the US' embarrassingly low savings rate. Normally, that means higher consumer spending, which has been pushing the economy forward in recent years. But, think about this - banks need to raise cash to give out more credit. They can't raise cash as easily if people aren't investing it. And if people can't get credit for loans, and take steps backwards financially, they will save even less. That's a negative spiral right there. The only way I see to get out of that is if enough people decide they can't afford or get a loan for a home, and they rent instead, and they actually save/invest the money that would have gone into the house. But the American household doesn't tend to do that - they spend the money instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 28, 2008 -> 08:05 AM) As far as the credit market goes, here is yet another problematic dynamic to think about... the US' embarrassingly low savings rate. Normally, that means higher consumer spending, which has been pushing the economy forward in recent years. But, think about this - banks need to raise cash to give out more credit. They can't raise cash as easily if people aren't investing it. And if people can't get credit for loans, and take steps backwards financially, they will save even less. That's a negative spiral right there. The only way I see to get out of that is if enough people decide they can't afford or get a loan for a home, and they rent instead, and they actually save/invest the money that would have gone into the house. But the American household doesn't tend to do that - they spend the money instead. You think the cycle looks bad like that, wait to see what happens if they lock the banks into the bad loans that exist out there today. The thing that has always kept the US moving forward through credit crunches is the ability to write off bad debt and move on. The best example I can give you of why holding on to bad debt doesn't work is the Japanese housing bubble of the eighties. There economy is still stalled because it is culturally unacceptable to write off debt. That is why they haven't had real growth for decades. The scary thing is that the US would be a much bigger scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted February 28, 2008 Author Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Feb 28, 2008 -> 09:10 AM) You think the cycle looks bad like that, wait to see what happens if they lock the banks into the bad loans that exist out there today. The thing that has always kept the US moving forward through credit crunches is the ability to write off bad debt and move on. The best example I can give you of why holding on to bad debt doesn't work is the Japanese housing bubble of the eighties. There economy is still stalled because it is culturally unacceptable to write off debt. That is why they haven't had real growth for decades. The scary thing is that the US would be a much bigger scale. Yeah, that's a problem too. But on that note, I'll throw something else out there that has been mentioned here before - the credit default swap market. On the one hand, all that high risk, unregulated risk out there is a huge time bomb. That's bad. But, I'd suggest that in the long run, if that market can get tacked down a bit, it could actually help spell a way out. Banks will be willing to take on a bit more risk if they can insure against it via the CDS markets. And they will be more than happy to let bad debt go to the insurer (swap guarantor/receiver) according to the contractual stipulations for doing so. That could be an efficient method for the release of bad debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 28, 2008 -> 08:13 AM) Yeah, that's a problem too. But on that note, I'll throw something else out there that has been mentioned here before - the credit default swap market. On the one hand, all that high risk, unregulated risk out there is a huge time bomb. That's bad. But, I'd suggest that in the long run, if that market can get tacked down a bit, it could actually help spell a way out. Banks will be willing to take on a bit more risk if they can insure against it via the CDS markets. And they will be more than happy to let bad debt go to the insurer (swap guarantor/receiver) according to the contractual stipulations for doing so. That could be an efficient method for the release of bad debt. And I think that's what the fed is trying to move toward, if I am seeing it right. That's why they are propping up the CDS market mechanism. If that can happen, it will be the best thing that can and then hopefully a path out of this, albiet slowly. What's so dangerous is the fed keeps cutting those rights to try and force liquidity, and as CKNOLLS has pointed out, Boom Boom is just about out of bullets. If the cash doesn't start flowing more freely, and the prices keep skyrocketing, we will see a deep global recession, and maybe even a depression, although that's quite drastic. I think that you are on the right track, NSS, when you were talking in the other thread about investing in the alternative energy business... that can be the "internet sector" of the 2010's and can drive the economy for a long time, if done right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 The fed keeps cutting rates, but I've been watching mortgage lines lately and 30 year FRM are up almost a point since January. Why are they moving up while the Fed is moving rates down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(StrangeSox @ Feb 28, 2008 -> 08:33 AM) The fed keeps cutting rates, but I've been watching mortgage lines lately and 30 year FRM are up almost a point since January. Why are they moving up while the Fed is moving rates down? The 30 FRM doesn't quite function with fed rate cuts. It has more to do with the notes of that time period... and right now the market would suggest that long term rates are going to go back up due to a lot of factors, but the biggest short term factor is inflation and the fed's going to have to bounce the rates back up just as fast as they have brought them down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 28, 2008 -> 08:44 AM) The 30 FRM doesn't quite function with fed rate cuts. It has more to do with the notes of that time period... and right now the market would suggest that long term rates are going to go back up due to a lot of factors, but the biggest short term factor is inflation and the fed's going to have to bounce the rates back up just as fast as they have brought them down. Thanks for the explanation. I know that FRM's don't correlate directly with the Fed lending rate, but I was wondering what sort of pressures would be pushing them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 27, 2008 -> 06:43 PM) can anyone say S-T-A-G-F-L-A-T-I-O-N? signed, cknolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Feb 28, 2008 -> 07:48 AM) Corn-All time high Wheat-All time high Crude Oil-All time high Heating Oil-All time high Gasoline-All time high Gold-All time high Euro Currency-All time high Yup, no inflation there... Dollar all time low too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(kapkomet @ Feb 28, 2008 -> 07:52 AM) In all seriousness, this might be the worst economic crisis since 1929. I'm not being a smart ass, either. Unless something drastically changes, and quickly, we could be in a LOT of trouble. The credit markets need to get moving again, and if that doesn't happen, the Fed could lose control of the whole damn thing. How long does everyone believe it will take before FNM and FRE are nationalized? Hell, we're half-way there already. And that is NOT GOOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(StrangeSox @ Feb 28, 2008 -> 08:33 AM) The fed keeps cutting rates, but I've been watching mortgage lines lately and 30 year FRM are up almost a point since January. Why are they moving up while the Fed is moving rates down? Because they are more closely tied to the 10 yr bond not fed funds. Usually a good barometer for 30 yr mortgages is somewhere in the area of 1.5 -2.0% over the 10 yr bond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Where is Franklin Raines? And why is his ass not in front of Congress explaining what the hell was going on at FNM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Here is another ridiculous item in FNM's 10-k filed yesterday. The company lends unsecured on a delinquent payment to circumvent mark to market consequences. It is a deceptive way to make delinquency rates better than they really are. The question that should be asked is, "where is the regulator on this after just yesterday allowing them to raise their cap on loans?" Could "they" be complicit in this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Dumb question: wouldn't cutting rates be the worst thing to do right now for inflation? If we're facing a stagnating economy anyway, and lower rates = weak dollar and higher oil prices... why wouldn't hiking rates help? Shouldn't that boost the dollar which I wager would also reduce oil prices because the dollar would be seen as a more attractive investment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Feb 28, 2008 -> 10:00 AM) Dumb question: wouldn't cutting rates be the worst thing to do right now for inflation? If we're facing a stagnating economy anyway, and lower rates = weak dollar and higher oil prices... why wouldn't hiking rates help? Shouldn't that boost the dollar which I wager would also reduce oil prices because the dollar would be seen as a more attractive investment? Yes. Cutting rates would be the worst thing to do for inflation. But holding rates steady or increasing rates to fight inflation could batter the credit market even more, and it's the credit market right now that is the driving force in the downturn. So take your pick. Do you fight off inflation, or do you fight off stagnant growth...you can't do both. This is why the phrase "Stagflation" is a rough one for economies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Feb 28, 2008 -> 12:00 PM) Dumb question: wouldn't cutting rates be the worst thing to do right now for inflation? If we're facing a stagnating economy anyway, and lower rates = weak dollar and higher oil prices... why wouldn't hiking rates help? Shouldn't that boost the dollar which I wager would also reduce oil prices because the dollar would be seen as a more attractive investment? Thats why some of us were screaming about this when they started agressively cutting rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 (edited) QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 27, 2008 -> 07:26 PM) I disagree. I for one think the time to get serious on alternative energy, by removing the tens of billions of dollars in subsidies given to the oil industry, investing heavily in research into alternative energy, increasing the CAFE standards, investing in mass transit, etc., was the mid 90's. Back when Energy was in its last low cost period before the end of the era of cheap energy. Now, we're slapping a band aid on a gushing wound. Hopefully we have big enough bandaids to stanch the bleeding. If the time isn't now, when would you suggest that it is, other than obviously, in the past? Edited February 28, 2008 by iamshack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 QUOTE(iamshack @ Feb 28, 2008 -> 10:24 AM) If the time isn't now, when would you suggest that it is, other than obviously, in the past? Like I said...when you have a gushing wound, the sooner you treat it the better. We've had one for decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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