NorthSideSox72 Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 On Tuesday March 4th, the following primaries are up... Texas (193 delegates) Ohio (141) Rhode Island (21) Vermont (15) Big day all around. Polls are close in Ohio and closer in Texas. NSS's predictions... Texas: Obama +3 Ohio: Clinton +5 RI: Clinton +3 VT: Obama +20 Clinton's smarmy scare tactic ads give her a little bump, making TX really close, and allowing her to take Ohio. Obama manages to still win Texas (barely), wins big in VT. Rhode Island is a close race. Depending on how the caucus part of TX falls out, these results are a near-draw in terms of delegates. Clinton stays alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 Predictions: Texas: Obama +10 Ohio: Clinton +7 RI: Clinton: +1 VT: Obama +24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 So, for Texas, I'm not sure how to read these predictions. Are those predictions in the primary part, the caucus part, or delegate predictions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 3, 2008 Author Share Posted March 3, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Mar 3, 2008 -> 03:34 PM) So, for Texas, I'm not sure how to read these predictions. Are those predictions in the primary part, the caucus part, or delegate predictions? I was saying overall percentage, but now that you mention it, that won't really work. I have no idea. I think in Delegates, Obama will win by a small margin. Let's put it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 3, 2008 -> 03:38 PM) I was saying overall percentage, but now that you mention it, that won't really work. I have no idea. I think in Delegates, Obama will win by a small margin. Let's put it that way. I have a feeling the popular vote will be pretty close, maybe +5% for Obama. I'm guessing he'll do quite well in the caucus. I think I read somewhere that 67 of the Texas delegates will be awarded based on the caucus results. I'd say 37-40 of those delegates will go to Obama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Mar 3, 2008 -> 01:45 PM) I have a feeling the popular vote will be pretty close, maybe +5% for Obama. I'm guessing he'll do quite well in the caucus. I think I read somewhere that 67 of the Texas delegates will be awarded based on the caucus results. I'd say 37-40 of those delegates will go to Obama. The other fun part is that from what I've read, a significant number of the districts Texas apportions in the primary section are 4 delegate districts. In other words, if a candidate wins them all 60-40, the delegate count comes out tied, a candidate needs to do something like 65-35 in one of those districts to come out with a delegate advantage. So for the most part, the primary is going to be a wash except for the vote totals, and the Caucus will be most of the delegate difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 Predictions: TX - Obama +6 OH - Either/Or +1 RI - Clinton +9 VT - Obama +23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Predictions: TX - Obama +5 OH - Clinton +6 RI - Clinton +5 VT - Obama +26 I did some projections based on my numbers: Post Tuesday. the delegate count will be ROUGHLY... Obama - 1382.5 Clinton - 1219 (Obama +163.5) To over come the PLEDGED delegate count, Clinton would need to win 65% of the remaining pledged delegates. That includes wins in Mississippi and Montana. I just dont see her doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 TX - Clinton +1 OH - Clinton +8 RI - Clinton +7 VT - Obama +19 Clinton stays in, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngelasDaddy0427 Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 TX - Clinton +5 OH - Clinton +15 RI Clinton +10 VT Clinton +5 Obama drops out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(AngelasDaddy0427 @ Mar 3, 2008 -> 07:36 PM) TX - Clinton +5 OH - Clinton +15 RI Clinton +10 VT Clinton +5 Obama drops out. with all do respect, you need to go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngelasDaddy0427 Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Ok... Well let me give you my justifications: In Texas she will carry the White Supremacist vote. That will allow her to squeak by. I live in Ohio and everyone I talk to seems to think the Clintons came down from heaven and now that they caught Barak "lying" he has no chance here. RI is too close to her territory. VT is the same as RI. Now Barak dropping out might be a little dramatic though. So I'll back off that statement. However I think the super delegates will use this all as an excuse to give Hillary the win. Also I am honest when I say I hate Hilliary with a passion. She's evil. She's a liar. And if Obama loses it does nothing but set up a huge victory for McCain. I pray I'm wrong and Obama wins. But I just don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(AngelasDaddy0427 @ Mar 3, 2008 -> 06:57 PM) VT is the same as RI. Do you even bother reading numbers at all? Repeated polling data shows Obama with a 20-30 point lead in Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(AngelasDaddy0427 @ Mar 3, 2008 -> 08:57 PM) Ok... Well let me give you my justifications: In Texas she will carry the White Supremacist vote. That will allow her to squeak by. I live in Ohio and everyone I talk to seems to think the Clintons came down from heaven and now that they caught Barak "lying" he has no chance here. RI is too close to her territory. VT is the same as RI. Now Barak dropping out might be a little dramatic though. So I'll back off that statement. However I think the super delegates will use this all as an excuse to give Hillary the win. Also I am honest when I say I hate Hilliary with a passion. She's evil. She's a liar. And if Obama loses it does nothing but set up a huge victory for McCain. I pray I'm wrong and Obama wins. But I just don't see it. I suggest you stick to baseball commentary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 (edited) Seems like Hillary's gaining some momentum over the last 48 hours. Let's hope tomorrow is the end for that annoying whiner. Edited March 4, 2008 by fathom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 TX - Obama + 4. OH - Clinton + 5. RI - Clinton + 8. VT - Obama + 24. Clinton to stay in despite the defeat in Texas, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 I just have to wonder, with the recent semi-surge for HRC, who are these people that are actually convinced by negative ads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(bmags @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 05:22 AM) I just have to wonder, with the recent semi-surge for HRC, who are these people that are actually convinced by negative ads? The same idiots that were on 60 Minutes yesterday saying they think Obama is a Muslim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitesoxfan101 Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 The Democratic Party better hope it learned from 2004. Just as the only way they could lose in 2004 was a ticket of Kerry/Edwards, the only way they can lose in 2008 is if they let the whiner back into the race tomorrow. I hope the history of democratic self-destruction continues tomorrow, but I don't see how it can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 4, 2008 Author Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(whitesoxfan101 @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 01:43 AM) The Democratic Party better hope it learned from 2004. Just as the only way they could lose in 2004 was a ticket of Kerry/Edwards, the only way they can lose in 2008 is if they let the whiner back into the race tomorrow. I hope the history of democratic self-destruction continues tomorrow, but I don't see how it can. Clinton is definitely getting a little bump lately. Could be the negative ads, could be the ultra-conservatives crossing over (listening to their talk show hosts) to make trouble... whatever, it will probably allow her to hold Ohio by a 5-ish point margin. But Texas will still go Obama, I think. And contrary to what a lot of people think, I am of the opinion that the Superdelegate momentum will continue to stay with Obama. And if this goes close and late, like to the convention, they'll break for Obama, for one simple reason... they want to win in November. So basically, Clinton needs to win OH and TX to stay in it. And even then, she has an uphill battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 05:34 AM) Clinton is definitely getting a little bump lately. Could be the negative ads, could be the ultra-conservatives crossing over (listening to their talk show hosts) to make trouble... whatever, it will probably allow her to hold Ohio by a 5-ish point margin. But Texas will still go Obama, I think. And contrary to what a lot of people think, I am of the opinion that the Superdelegate momentum will continue to stay with Obama. And if this goes close and late, like to the convention, they'll break for Obama, for one simple reason... they want to win in November. So basically, Clinton needs to win OH and TX to stay in it. And even then, she has an uphill battle. That would be karma after the talk about the Dems doing the same in Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Does McCain seal the deal today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 I don't see how he couldn't clinch the nomination today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 I haven't seen any exit polls yet, but the overall polling data that is out there for the last couple days seems an awful lot like New Hampshire. A close race breaking Hillary's way in each of the major states and nationally as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Nothing yet... http://thepage.time.com/2008/03/04/6th-avenue-two-step/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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