March 4th Primaries

[Balta1701]

Just want to know, why some people think Hilary will get the nomination if it goes to the convention in Denver, and if she's behind in delegates?

 

Is it because of the super delegates, who will be yet to decide (and Clinton will do anything she can to get them on board)?

There are almost certainly going to be several hundred superdelegates sitting on the sideline until the convention at this point. And they're not going to want to overturn the voters if they can avoid it. If Obama comes in with a solid, steady lead in delegates and votes, then enough of them will probably endorse him to put him over the top. But if Hillary comes back and starts winning most of the remaining states, which is entirely possible...then the impression will certainly be that she has the momentum going in to the convention, and most of the remaining ones, who probably would prefer to support her anyway because of the fact that she's more of the establishment candidate than him...will swing to her.

 

If Obama can keep it relatively split over the next 2 months, maybe take PA as well (already close in the polls with 2 months to go), and maybe grow his delegate lead a bit, that should be enough. But if Hillary can pull off wins in the majority of these next states, or pull in big wins in a few, then that will probably bring the supers to her side.

[BigSqwert]

There are almost certainly going to be several hundred superdelegates sitting on the sideline until the convention at this point.

According to this tracker there are 283 left that have not endorsed. (See upper left part of page)

 

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/su...egate-list.html

[BigSqwert]

What the heck!?! Are we in a 3rd world country? Mexico should have kept Texas.

[NorthSideSox72]

Obama with a decent lead in the TX caucus, about 40% reporting. Texas looking like it will end up a near-tie or actual tie, delegate-wise.

 

And on the supers, again... they'll break for who they think will win in November. Right now, that's Obama, and has been for a while. The only way Clinton can get the majority of them to break for her is if she wins PA and also manages to convince the electorate (and the supers) that she will do better against McCain than Obama would. That is still a long shot. Not impossible, but, a long shot.

 

[BigSqwert]

Obama with a decent lead in the TX caucus, about 40% reporting.

That may be all that reports. (See post above yours.)

[KipWellsFan]

LMFAO!!!!! Reading this thread from beginning to end knowing what the results were was just f***ing hilarious. The Bike Obama supporters were so (did I say Bike? Fruedian slip.) f***ing cocky waiting for the big cities in Texas to report, and what happened? A wave of votes for Billary came in and she won by damn near 100K votes. Then the Obamaites started grasping at any straw they could so they could still feel good about things. Spin city here! And you guys talk about Fox News. LOL ... Billary is gonna get the nomination. She'll probably pick Obama as VP but it won't be enough. Too many Obama people will just be disgusted at the net result and just not vote in the general. Gotta love this. It's just too good.

 

Alright there bud. It's called optimism. I guess you hadn't picked up on the whole theme of the Obama campaign yet huh?

 

I don't know if I'm cocky, stupid, arrogant, optimistic, funny, smart, realistic or desperate in saying this (take your pick Yasny). But I've heard that the next two primaries favor Obama in Wyoming and Mississippi. Anyone have any polls, or reasons for this? Anyways, I think the reports about Obama's Texas caucus results will help dampen the big Clinton victories, and if he can manage wins in Wyoming and Mississippi, he'll get back in the groove. Of course he's got to avoid controversy and hope Clinton courts it.

[NorthSideSox72]

Alright there bud. It's called optimism. I guess you hadn't picked up on the whole theme of the Obama campaign yet huh?

 

I don't know if I'm cocky, stupid, arrogant, optimistic, funny, smart, realistic or desperate in saying this (take your pick Yasny). But I've heard that the next two primaries favor Obama in Wyoming and Mississippi. Anyone have any polls, or reasons for this? Anyways, I think the reports about Obama's Texas caucus results will help dampen the big Clinton victories, and if he can manage wins in Wyoming and Mississippi, he'll get back in the groove. Of course he's got to avoid controversy and hope Clinton courts it.

I wouldn't expend much energy responding to that post. Yas is smarter than that. I think maybe he's just a little tired of the overzealous Obama supporters that seem to be common all over the country right now.

 

Obama is still in the lead, literally and figuratively. Its still his race to lose. But, PA will be huge. Really huge. WY and MS are even pretty important.

 

I am very curious to watch what happens after PA. If one or the other candidate leaves PA with a big enough lead, it won't matter. But, if after PA they are still very close (like they are now), then its all up to the supers. And the supers depend on electability - watch the theo polls for the national. That's the key. And its why PA is far more important than just the delegates - it indicates the ability to win a major swing state.

 

I'm not going to fool myself into thinking I can stop paying attention - I love this. I think its fantastic that so many people are so involved in this election cycle.

 

[Balta1701]

On the Limbaugh question we've discussed, here's potentially some useful comparison data.

Go and check the exit polls. In Wisconsin, Republicans made up 9 percent of the Democratic primary vote. Obama won them 72-28 over Clinton. Just as tellingly, 14 percent of primary voters said they were "conservative," and Obama won them 59-40, a bigger margin than he won with liberals or moderates. Tactical voters who said Obama stood a better chance of winning in November? They went for him 87-13.

 

Now, look at Ohio. Once again 9 percent of voters were Republicans, but Obama and Clinton split them evenly, 49-49. Once again, 14 percent of voters were "conservatives," and Obama and Clinton split them 48-48. (Obama did better with them than he did with liberals and moderates.) Those tactical voters who thought Obama could win gave him a 80-18 victory, a margin twelve points smaller than the margin in Wisconsin.

 

It's a similar story in Texas, where Limbaugh has the most listeners of any of these states. Obama won the Republican vote 52-47, but conservatives (22 percent of all voters, up from 15 percent in the Kerry-Edwards primary) went against Obama. For the first time since Super Tuesday, they were Clinton's best ideological group: She won them 53-43. And Clinton won 13 percent of the people who said Obama was the most electable candidate.

 

Ohio didn't wind up being very close, but Clinton won the Texas primary by about 98,000 votes out of 2.8 million cast. If the exits are right, about 252,000 of those voters were Republicans, and about 618,000 were conservatives. Clinton truly might have won the Texas primary on the backs of Rush Limbaugh listeners.

[Rex Kickass]

Obama with a decent lead in the TX caucus, about 40% reporting. Texas looking like it will end up a near-tie or actual tie, delegate-wise.

 

And on the supers, again... they'll break for who they think will win in November. Right now, that's Obama, and has been for a while. The only way Clinton can get the majority of them to break for her is if she wins PA and also manages to convince the electorate (and the supers) that she will do better against McCain than Obama would. That is still a long shot. Not impossible, but, a long shot.

 

Texas was actually won by Obama.

 

Clinton nets four delegates in the Primary.

Obama will net seven more than Clinton in the Caucus.

 

Total delegate count in TX? Obama +3.

[3E8]

Booya

[NorthSideSox72]

Texas was actually won by Obama.

 

Clinton nets four delegates in the Primary.

Obama will net seven more than Clinton in the Caucus.

 

Total delegate count in TX? Obama +3.

Interesting. So for what counts for the process, Obama wins Texas. If he picks up more ground in WY and MS, that makes for a pretty big gap. Still though, I think PA is HUGE.

 

[KipWellsFan]

Interesting. So for what counts for the process, Obama wins Texas. If he picks up more ground in WY and MS, that makes for a pretty big gap. Still though, I think PA is HUGE.

 

But North Carolina is also very large, and also very much Obama territory.

 

I think Obama should also come out and say he thinks that the people of Florida and Michigan deserve to be counted in a fair way, and let his people fight for the most beneficial process for him.

[NorthSideSox72]

Here is my question. Why is it that watching CNN, and looking at websites like MSNBC and CNN and NY Times, that no one is making mention of the fact that Obama has actually won Texas? And apparently actually gained ground in delegates instead of lost?

 

Me thinks they overreacted a bit last night to the Clinton victory parade, before finding out how things really fell out. I mean, the headlines on the NYT site still say things like "Lesson of Defeat" when discussing Obama.

 

[Balta1701]

Here is my question. Why is it that watching CNN, and looking at websites like MSNBC and CNN and NY Times, that no one is making mention of the fact that Obama has actually won Texas? And apparently actually gained ground in delegates instead of lost?

 

Me thinks they overreacted a bit last night to the Clinton victory parade, before finding out how things really fell out. I mean, the headlines on the NYT site still say things like "Lesson of Defeat" when discussing Obama.

Overall he certainly didn't gain ground in delegates, even though it was close.

[bmags]

well, it's like how Obama claims a victory in Missouri, even though they split delegates.

[NorthSideSox72]

Overall he certainly didn't gain ground in delegates, even though it was close.

I actually did the math wrong, Clinton gained about 10 delegates overall on Tuesday. Obama won Texas, but you are right, Clinton gained 10 delegates overall on the day.

 

Point is, Obama won Texas. And I'm still seeing all the news articles saying the opposite.

 

 

 

[KipWellsFan]

I actually did the math wrong, Clinton gained about 10 delegates overall on Tuesday. Obama won Texas, but you are right, Clinton gained 10 delegates overall on the day.

 

Point is, Obama won Texas. And I'm still seeing all the news articles saying the opposite.

 

Well I've definitely seen some articles saying that the caucus results changed some of the momentum. But the media needs some actual numbers showing that Obama won Texas overall. I'm not sure that's available yet.

[NorthSideSox72]

So, here is some math to chew on.

 

Let's say that Obama and Clinton draw the same number of delegates the rest of the way out. I think that's unlikely - the map at this point favors Obama - but let's say that anyway.

 

At that point, Obama has 1826 and Clinton has 1729 (that includes the already-endorsed supers). So that means that of the 358 remaining uncommitted supers, Clinton would have to win 231 of them (127 to Obama) to win. Two thirds of them going to a candidate who will be losing the vote AND shows as much weaker in November? Politicians are far too self-interested. They want to win.

 

PA is key, as I've said. But the numbers say that Clinton will need to be dominant from here out to win.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Oh hey, forgot to mention too... John Edwards has 26 pledged delegates in his name. So basically, he is like 26 superdelegates right now, up for the bidding. Those could come in handy. So could North Carolina. One wonders if he may endorse before the NC primary.

 

[AngelasDaddy0427]

Obama is not the front runner. And guess what? He's better off not being the front runner. Because when Clinton is the front runner she loses. So as far as I'm concerned I'd rather Clinton think she's the front runner. Because if Obama thinks he is then he will lose.

[knightni]

Still though, I think PA is HUGE.

 

HEY!

 

BE NICE!

 

He's a Big Loser trying to lose weight!

 

[whitesoxfan101]

Obama is going to have huge issues in Pennsylvania. If people thought the demographics were favorable for Clinton in Ohio, they've seen nothing yet. Pennsylvania has an even higher union working/steel mill type demographic (ala it's sister across the state line in Youngstown, Ohio), and an even smaller african american base than Ohio. Obama will certainly do well in Philly and State College, but I can't see him doing much elsewhere or winning that state. He's going to have to do something incredible to even make it closer than Ohio was IMO, 7 weeks doesn't change demographics.

[Rex Kickass]

Unless Obama starts going tit for tat on the attacks. They are low hanging fruit for Obama and a lot juicier than Tony Rezko. As much as I don't wanna see Obama stoop to that level, I know he probably has to. Kerry didn't when it came to the Swift Boaters, and that hurt him enough to flip the election IMO.

[YASNY]

I wouldn't expend much energy responding to that post. Yas is smarter than that. I think maybe he's just a little tired of the overzealous Obama supporters that seem to be common all over the country right now.

 

Obama is still in the lead, literally and figuratively. Its still his race to lose. But, PA will be huge. Really huge. WY and MS are even pretty important.

 

I am very curious to watch what happens after PA. If one or the other candidate leaves PA with a big enough lead, it won't matter. But, if after PA they are still very close (like they are now), then its all up to the supers. And the supers depend on electability - watch the theo polls for the national. That's the key. And its why PA is far more important than just the delegates - it indicates the ability to win a major swing state.

 

I'm not going to fool myself into thinking I can stop paying attention - I love this. I think its fantastic that so many people are so involved in this election cycle.

 

Bingo. Yes, I was 'over the top' with my comment. But that was by design because that's how these Obama people sound to me. Gotta give you credit. You got it perfectly.

[Balta1701]

Obama is going to have huge issues in Pennsylvania. If people thought the demographics were favorable for Clinton in Ohio, they've seen nothing yet. Pennsylvania has an even higher union working/steel mill type demographic (ala it's sister across the state line in Youngstown, Ohio), and an even smaller african american base than Ohio. Obama will certainly do well in Philly and State College, but I can't see him doing much elsewhere or winning that state. He's going to have to do something incredible to even make it closer than Ohio was IMO, 7 weeks doesn't change demographics.

Before the votes were cast on Tuesday, the polling in PA showed that Obama had already narrowed the gap to roughly 5 points. That's smaller than the gap he's had to overcome in most states.