kapkomet Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 04:18 PM) I haven't seen any exit polls yet, but the overall polling data that is out there for the last couple days seems an awful lot like New Hampshire. A close race breaking Hillary's way in each of the major states and nationally as well. QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 04:19 PM) Nothing yet... http://thepage.time.com/2008/03/04/6th-avenue-two-step/ I keep saying that this is New Hampshire all over again, but no one wants to believe me. The 3AM ad was effective. The sad thing is, I don't think I'm kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(kapkomet @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 04:28 PM) The 3AM ad was effective. The sad thing is, I don't think I'm kidding. Look at the polls... obama had a 3-5 point lead before the ad ran. now, they are tied, or Hillary +1. Sadly, people are stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(kapkomet @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 10:28 PM) I keep saying that this is New Hampshire all over again, but no one wants to believe me. The 3AM ad was effective. The sad thing is, I don't think I'm kidding. I thought he was rolling too much, but now, I think you are right. Sadly, I'm going to have to deal with Clinton in this race for months, continuing to dirty up someone in her own party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Don't have the data, but rumor has exit polls showing a slight Hillary lead in both OH and TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Oh my babe Nora O'Donnell is looking HOT tonight on MSNBC. *drools* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo's Drinker Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 04:58 PM) Don't have the data, but rumor has exit polls showing a slight Hillary lead in both OH and TX. oh crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Interesting point brought up by MSNBC.... It seems as though Obama had a slight lead among early voters. So, if Hillary has a slight lead "day of", then it might be a wash. Could be a point difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 If the rumor is true that Obama is gonna have 50 more supers endorse tomorrow, it won't much matter what happens today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Saw this in the San Fran. Chronicle; On the math side, it is a certainty that Sen. Barack Obama's lead in pledged delegates, at least 151, according to the Associated Press, after 11 straight victories last month, most of them by wide margins, is so wide that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton cannot catch up with anything less than blowout victories in the 60-40 percent range in both states. On the momentum side, however, if Clinton wins both states, even narrowly, she could blunt Obama's momentum and generate some of her own. Headlines will declare a Clinton victory in two giant states, lifting some of the pressure on her from party leaders to exit the race. Obama's best chance for a knockout blow is Texas, where polls have given him a slight edge. "Obama, to stop her, really has to win one of the two big states. Then the delegate math does take over," said Tad Devine, a top strategist for the Al Gore and John Kerry presidential campaigns. But if Clinton wins both, she is likely to stay in the race. "Even if the math works in Obama's favor, if he loses two big states, I don't think that's how you win the nomination," Devine said. "You don't win the nomination by losing. You have to win the nomination by winning, or at least splitting ... I think it's going to be incumbent on Obama to win one of those big states if he wants the race to end tomorrow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 05:15 PM) If the rumor is true that Obama is gonna have 50 more supers endorse tomorrow, it won't much matter what happens today. I think they are hanging onto these guys until after today "just in case". It would REALLY kill any positive press she got from 1-4 wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 On the other hand, I'm also reading that Ohio actually seems to be coming out closer than some of the recent polling would have suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 05:20 PM) On the other hand, I'm also reading that Ohio actually seems to be coming out closer than some of the recent polling would have suggested. I will concede this: I think Obama MIGHT loss both states. BUT, he'll win the delegates in TX and be VERY close in Ohio. His momentum might be slowed, but it becomes "Post Super Tuesday" all over again. With a virtual tie in the momentum, even if Obama still has far more delegates than she does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 05:20 PM) On the other hand, I'm also reading that Ohio actually seems to be coming out closer than some of the recent polling would have suggested. where do you get your "inside info"? Not that you have to disclose your sources, i am just curious how you get this info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 03:23 PM) where do you get your "inside info"? Not that you have to disclose your sources, i am just curious how you get this info. A large smattering of blogs...many of which are receiving the same leaks. The Obama campaign expects to net seven or eight delegates out of the night from winning Vermont… they expect, delegate-wise, RI and Ohio will tie, and Texas, because of the caucus, will be a wash. The Clinton campaign, having recieved leaked exit polls showing slim leads in both Texas and Ohio, is already challenging, in the press, the aggressiveness of Obama’s caucus operation but is generally happy with early reports that turnout in Texas is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 This is interesting. One of my sources has gotten two sets of exit poll results. It's unclear whether this is different pollsters or, I suspect, different times of day. For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont. The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont. You'll hear more as I learn more. Linkity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 First Exit Polls: VT Obama - 67, Clinton - 33 OH Obama - 51, Clinton - 49 TX Obama - 50, Clinton - 49 RI Obama - 49, Clinton - 49 LINK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo's Drinker Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 05:38 PM) First Exit Polls: VT Obama - 67, Clinton - 33 OH Obama - 51, Clinton - 49 TX Obama - 50, Clinton - 49 RI Obama - 49, Clinton - 49 LINK That would be f'in sweet, wont last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 05:38 PM) First Exit Polls: VT Obama - 67, Clinton - 33 OH Obama - 51, Clinton - 49 TX Obama - 50, Clinton - 49 RI Obama - 49, Clinton - 49 LINK The fact that it is THAT close is amazing. Clinton was supposed to run away in Ohio (recent polls had her up by 4-6 points. WOW! Even if he loses both, that's... wow. Not bad for being down 20 points less than a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo's Drinker Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Is CNN Clinton bias or what?? Is MSNBC this bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 05:08 PM) Oh my babe Nora O'Donnell is looking HOT tonight on MSNBC. *drools* She looks AMAZING in black... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Considering the 3 a.m ads publicity etc. over the past few days, I think those exit polls are very good news for Obama, and not so for Clinton. If those results do occur, she's done IMHO (even though she won't drop out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 4, 2008 Author Share Posted March 4, 2008 With the exit polls that close, they are almost worthless for predicting wins (except in VT). But OH is surprising to me - I thought Clinton would have a substantial lead. I figured TX would be a near-tie in the primary portion. Actually, RI I am surprised at too, in those exit polls - I thought that was a Clinton gimme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 QUOTE(Jimbo's Drinker @ Mar 4, 2008 -> 03:42 PM) That would be f'in sweet, wont last. If you note the post above his, there are now 2 sets out there, each varying by a couple of points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Vermont Exit Polls: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21226011 MSNBC calls it for Obama. No Surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 4, 2008 Author Share Posted March 4, 2008 CNN calls Vermont for Obama and McCain by wide margins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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