BP's Goldstein: Sox's Farm System Ranks Last

[Jeremy]

Obviously not a surprise.

 

The link is below but it's subscriber content only.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7188

[LVSoxFan]

You know what's funny? I was talking to my hardcore Sox fan mom yesterday and telling her what I thought this year's team's chances were. Then I said, if we have another 2007-type season we might as well dump 'em all (well not Buehrle!) and rebuild with our young guys.

 

And then I remembered: what young guys? What farm system?

 

Oof.

[iamshack]

You know what's funny? I was talking to my hardcore Sox fan mom yesterday and telling her what I thought this year's team's chances were. Then I said, if we have another 2007-type season we might as well dump 'em all (well not Buehrle!) and rebuild with our young guys.

 

And then I remembered: what young guys? What farm system?

 

Oof.

 

Once again, and I am tired of having to remind people of this. You'd deal all the quality veterans you have for young kids, and you could have one of the best systems in baseball. As Kenny has said, he could build a great farm system in 2 weeks if that was the goal.

[Vance Law]

And then I remembered: what young guys?

 

Swisher

Quentin

Fields

Danks

Richar

Ramirez

Jenks

Floyd

maybe others. Plus whomever we'd get from "dumping" everyone else.

 

[Vance Law]

Obviously not a surprise.

 

The link is below but it's subscriber content only.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7188

 

I'm not a subscriber, but does he consider there to really be much of a difference between the Sox, Tigers, and Astros.

[StrangeSox]

Once again, and I am tired of having to remind people of this. You'd deal all the quality veterans you have for young kids, and you could have one of the best systems in baseball. As Kenny has said, he could build a great farm system in 2 weeks if that was the goal.

 

 

You can build a decent farm system while still having a top-tier ball club with the payroll KW has. Right now it looks like we have neither.

Edited March 5, 2008 by StrangeSox

[shipps]

No shock,but still very discouraging every time I hear it.

[Vance Law]

You can build a decent farm system while still having a top-tier ball club with the payroll KW has.

 

Not totally disagreeing with you. But interesting to look at. Which teams have managed to do this, and how did they go about it?

Yankees and Red Sox have infinity dollars to buy free agents and sign all of their own free agents- have less need to trade lots of prospects for MLB players.

Tigers went through several years as a horrendous team while they built their farm system, brought people up, and now have traded away the remainder of their system to try to win it all immediately. Indians, Rays, DBacks, Rockies all go through several years of being very bad while they bing up a mostly in-house young team.

 

Other people know farm systems better than me. What percentage of teams have managed to be consistently good major league teams all while having a good farm system (excluding fake teams the Yankees and Red Sox)?

Edited March 5, 2008 by Vance Law

[StrangeSox]

Not totally disagreeing with you. But interesting to look at. Which teams have managed to do this, and how did they go about it?

Yankees and Red Sox have infinity dollars to buy free agents and sign all of their own free agents- have less need to trade lots of prospects for MLB players.

Tigers went through several years as a horrendous team while they built their farm system, brought people up, and now have traded away the remainder of their system to try to win it all immediately. Indians, Rays, DBacks, Rockies all go through several years of being very bad while they bing up a mostly in-house young team.

 

Other people know farm systems better than me. What percentage of teams have managed to be consistently good major league teams all while having a good farm system (excluding fake teams the Yankees and Red Sox)?

 

Before trading the farm for Cabrera, the Tigers were still a top AL contender. You're going to go through cycles, sure, but it doesn't have to be only one or the other.

[Jeremy]

Once again, and I am tired of having to remind people of this. You'd deal all the quality veterans you have for young kids, and you could have one of the best systems in baseball. As Kenny has said, he could build a great farm system in 2 weeks if that was the goal.

 

If we had an all out fire sale we could move into the top 10, maybe a bit higher. I don't really think that's something to hang your hat on though. Boston is four in Goldstein's rankings and they won the World Series last season. The Dodgers are five and they're playoff contenders. Atlanta, Colorado, and the Yanks are also in the top ten. We wouldn't have as much talent at the major or minor league level as the D-Rays (baseball's best system) and few envy them.

 

In sum, most teams in the league have a good farm system or a competitive major league team. The fact that a few teams don't (San Fran, Houston, KC, Pittsburg) and thus we don't have the worst combination of major and minor league talent in the majors doesn't thrill me.

[LVSoxFan]

If KW said he can do this in two weeks I hope that IS the goal if we have another bad season.

[gosox41]

Once again, and I am tired of having to remind people of this. You'd deal all the quality veterans you have for young kids, and you could have one of the best systems in baseball. As Kenny has said, he could build a great farm system in 2 weeks if that was the goal.

 

How about we start with an average ranking farm system built by good drafts.

 

 

Bob

[CWSGuy406]

Once again, and I am tired of having to remind people of this. You'd deal all the quality veterans you have for young kids, and you could have one of the best systems in baseball. As Kenny has said, he could build a great farm system in 2 weeks if that was the goal.

 

Sort of like last summer, when the best offer the Sox could get for Jermaine Dye was Wily Mo Pena straight up?

[harfman77]

What are you really trying to even get at with this post? Are you insuating that Dye would be one of Sox best trading chips? I could think of probably 10 others before Dye, those of which could infact re-stock a system.

 

You can move OCab, Konerko, Thome, AJ, Vazquez and Dye and probably finish no further down in the standings than we will by keeping them. The problem is that we have to find someone who has a whole at these positions in order to make deals and then try to get some quality talent back.

 

A lineup of

 

LF Owens

SS Ramirez

1B Swisher

DH Fields

RF Quentin

3B Crede

CF Anderson

C Lucy

2B Richar

 

Would be frustrating, but good enough to finish fourth or fifth in the division, and would have potential to grow into something, and hopefully the players that you would get back would provide some depth in the farm system and pick up some additional pitching as well to go along with MB and Danks.

[witesoxfan]

You can move OCab, Konerko, Thome, AJ, Vazquez and Dye and probably finish no further down in the standings than we will by keeping them. The problem is that we have to find someone who has a whole at these positions in order to make deals and then try to get some quality talent back.

 

A lineup of

 

LF Owens

SS Ramirez

1B Swisher

DH Fields

RF Quentin

3B Crede

CF Anderson

C Lucy

2B Richar

 

Would be frustrating, but good enough to finish fourth or fifth in the division, and would have potential to grow into something, and hopefully the players that you would get back would provide some depth in the farm system and pick up some additional pitching as well to go along with MB and Danks.

 

If the Sox put that on the field, I have absolute full confidence in saying they'd lose 110 games.

 

And it's really funny that you'd like to move everyone, yet you'd keep Crede. That makes sense, sure.

[CWSGuy406]

What are you really trying to even get at with this post? Are you insuating that Dye would be one of Sox best trading chips? I could think of probably 10 others before Dye, those of which could infact re-stock a system.

 

I think the insinuation is quite clear, really -- what's the problem?. Are teams really going to be nipping at the bit to jump at current Sox players, so much so that the Sox could immediately become a top farm system?

 

Let's go through with the hypothetical scenario where the Sox blow-goat in the first half and decide they want to hit the reset button. We have some guys who would bring good returns and others who I'm not really sure about. In order of goodness on a return:

 

Jenks - Maybe a bit controversial here, because he certainly wouldn't provide as much value as a starter or a position player, but you'd be getting a player who is somewhat cost-controlled -- somewhat because next year, IIRC, will be his first arb year -- young and is one of the best closers in the game (which also adds a bunch of 'intangible' value of being a closer).

 

Vazquez / Buehrle - Above average pitchers locked up for more than one year, but still different from Haren (cost-controlled, younger) and Santana (best pitcher in baseball). The Sox would get a decent haul for trading both of these guys. I doubt the Sox'd get an Adam Jones-type prospect in either package -- could certainly be wrong about that, though.

 

Konerko - Slightly above average player with an assload of intangible goodness plus a bunch of those neat little tags (playoff proven, crafty veteran, clubhouse leader) as well as a manageable contract.

 

The one player I'm leaving out is Dye -- if he performs closer to his second-half numbers of last season, he's probably right there with Konerko as far as a return. If he performs closer to his *overall* 2007 numbers, it's probably a B-prospect-or-two type return.

 

I don't think I'm leaving out anyone else of significance. The OC? Yeah, I'm sure teams will be lining up at the door, offering up Lastings Milledges and Matt Kemps, for a half-season of a slightly-better-than-average, 33 (?)-year-old shortstop.

 

Enough clarification?

Edited March 5, 2008 by CWSGuy406

[haroldbainesknees]

We really can't be surprised by this. Nor does this particularly bother me. I am a fan of the Chicago White Sox, not the Charlotte Knights or Birmingham Barons. Thus, I would rather have a strong MLB team than a stronger farm system.

 

I may be in the minority on this board, but I think Kenny Williams is smart enough to realize when the time is right to stop dealing prospects for veterans. One of the reasons the farm system is so bare is because the Sox have consistently contended for playoff spots from 2003-2006. (I know 07 was a disaster). The result of course is that prospects are traded for players such as Vasquez, Thome, and Swisher who are critical to creating competitive teams, in turn competitive teams drive attendance, which generate revenue, which can be used any number of ways to strengthen the organization at any level.

 

KW knows the White Sox are in a win now mode. All key players on the team Konerko, Dye, Thome, Cabrera, Vasquez are 30 plus. Some several years past that mark. So from my perspective, the goal at this stage at least to start the season was to re-tool in an attempt to contend in 08. If the Sox flounder in the first half maybe we will see a full scale rebuild. The best thing about this team and one I reason I feel KW deserves props is that there are no real "cripple contracts", Mike Hampton, Todd Helton etc., Most of these guys are movable and you never know what a Dye type hitter will bring come the deadline in July. The worst and least movable contract may be Konerko's; providing his productivity stays similar to 07 as opposed to 04-06. Thus, I feel there is no reason to fret about having a depleted farm system. I feel the potential to rebuild it relatively quickly is there, and the team also has long term financial flexibility.

[nitetrain8601]

I hope all the people in here start checking out the futuresox board. I'm going to start putting in scouting reports of guys who might have interest in in the draft thread. I've already started with Aaron Crow.

[Jeremy]

What are you really trying to even get at with this post? Are you insuating that Dye would be one of Sox best trading chips? I could think of probably 10 others before Dye, those of which could infact re-stock a system.

 

CWS already covered this but I think we only have a few trading chips that are really worth much: Buehrle, Vazquez, Swisher, and Jenks (I'm assuming you wouldn't trade Quentin and Fields since they're so young). When I said before that we could move into the top ten by clearing out the vets, I based my opinion on the fact that the A's moved up 21 spots (from 23 to 2) in Goldstein's rankings in one year by trading Haren and Swisher. Buehrle, Jenks, and Vazquez combined might bring more than Haren did but I'm not sure that it will be tons more. I suspect some people will be shocked and dismayed by that statement but Haren is young, cheap, and posted the 6th lowest ERA in baseball last year. He's probably at least twice as valuable as Buehrle and Vazquez.

 

The other thing you have to remember is that this is if we traded all those players today. I'd be surprised to see the collective value of those four players increase over the next year and I could see it dropping.

 

We really can't be surprised by this. Nor does this particularly bother me. I am a fan of the Chicago White Sox, not the Charlotte Knights or Birmingham Barons. Thus, I would rather have a strong MLB team than a stronger farm system.

 

They're related quite a bit though.

 

I may be in the minority on this board, but I think Kenny Williams is smart enough to realize when the time is right to stop dealing prospects for veterans. One of the reasons the farm system is so bare is because the Sox have consistently contended for playoff spots from 2003-2006. (I know 07 was a disaster). The result of course is that prospects are traded for players such as Vasquez, Thome, and Swisher who are critical to creating competitive teams, in turn competitive teams drive attendance, which generate revenue, which can be used any number of ways to strengthen the organization at any level.

 

KW knows the White Sox are in a win now mode. All key players on the team Konerko, Dye, Thome, Cabrera, Vasquez are 30 plus. Some several years past that mark. So from my perspective, the goal at this stage at least to start the season was to re-tool in an attempt to contend in 08. If the Sox flounder in the first half maybe we will see a full scale rebuild.

 

A lot of "win now" teams don't have barren farm systems though. I can see two reasons for this. The first is that we haven't drafted well so we've had to trade all of our good prospects instead of just some of them to acquire vets. The other is that Kenny's been particularly extreme in his desire to "win now." A lot of teams would've rebuilt if they found themselves in the situation we were in last season, thinking that there just wasn't enough at the major league level to try to win now. Also, a lot of teams (e.g. the Red Sox) insist on holding onto certain prospects or to a certain amount of their best prospects. Kenny is different in that he's pretty much never been in a situation where he was unwilling to trade prospects. That's unusual and a bit startling to me. That means if we have someone who projects to be a star in the system, Kenny will probably be willing to trade him. In fact, you could argue that he already did this with Chris Young.

 

It's interesting that you say Kenny will know when it's time to rebuild. As I said before, most would probably have thought that around the trade deadline last year was about an obvious rebuilding situation as you can get. Furthermore, I think Kenny has pretty explicitly said he's unwilling to rebuild ever. He believes in rebuilding on the fly by injecting younger players into the system while still contending. That's sort of what he's done by adding Fields, Floyd, Danks, Richar, and Quentin into the mix (I hesitate some because only Floyd was acquired by dealing a veteran player). That's somewhat rare (though that BoSox and Yanks are doing it now, albeit by holding onto their own home grown players) so we'll have to see how it works out.

[nitetrain8601]

For you guys worried about slot, it's predicted to fall apart this year so we better not adhere to it. Free article at Baseball America, here's the part on slots:

 

MLB has recommended specific bonuses for every pick in the first five rounds since 2000, and last year it tried to exert more control than ever. Believing that improved compensation for unsigned picks and a universal signing deadline would give teams more leverage, MLB reduced the slots by 10 percent across the board. But in the end, a slew of well-above-slot deals were struck shortly before the Aug. 15 deadline.

 

The Nationals, Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers and Yankees aggressively went over slot, either for singular talents (such as the Orioles giving Matt Wieters a $6 million bonus that is the largest up-front payment in draft history) or for multiple players.

 

That didn't sit well with the clubs that adhered to slotting, especially after they received assurances from MLB throughout the summer that no teams were going to ignore the guidelines. A month later, Frank Coonelly, whose job as MLB's senior vice president of labor relations included being the watchdog for draft bonuses, took over as Pirates president and announced his team would go over slot as needed.

 

Clubs also have noticed that the Red Sox and Yankees have used their deep pockets to build two of the game's deepest farm systems. With dissatisfaction growing, several scouting directors predict the slotting recommendation system will fall apart this year.

 

"You look at some of these teams toeing the line, like the Pirates and the Astros, and their general managers and scouting directors are getting fired," another AL club official said. "Frank Coonelly comes into Pittsburgh and says he's going to take the best available player. More and more organizations are going to break from the pack and call their bluff."

 

This draft looks deep especially in comparison to 2006.

[CWSGuy406]

Get it?

 

So we're gonna trade Danks -- a 22-year old lefty -- for what reason, exactly? And to a lesser extent, Josh Fields?

 

And also -- 10 players before Dye? Really? I'm struggling to come up with half that amount.

 

You seem to be arguing just for the sake of arguing. The insinuation seemed to be -- and iamshack can jump in and correct me if I'm wrong -- that if Kenny wanted to, he could deal most of the vets/post-arb guys and restock the farm. I didn't take that to mean guys like Swisher, Fields and Danks were included. Jenks was, OTOH, included, because it's always been my presumption that the Sox could make an absolute killing off of dealing Jenks.

Edited March 6, 2008 by CWSGuy406

[Jeremy]

If they wanted to restock the system, then Danks and Fields have to be included in the disucssion. They are current members of the Sox, and projected to be starters.

 

So a core of Jenks-Vazquez-Danks-Fields-Buehrle-Konerko-Dye. If they traded all those players, and Williams got the fair value back, they would arguably have a top 5 farm system.

 

Get it?

 

That doesn't really make sense though. First of all, they wouldn't ever do it because if you're trying to rebuild you don't trade away good young players with next to no service time. The only reason you'd do that is if you wanted to have a highly ranked farm system.

 

Furthermore we're talking about the quality of the team's farm system relative to the rest of the teams in the majors. Well, maybe we could have a great farm system then but our young talent would not be great because unlike most every other team in the league we wouldn't have a single good young player on our major league roster. Pretend we also dealt Fields and Danks we moved up to #1 in the rankings of farm systems. It'd be meaningless because the D-Rays would be #2 and they'd have Upton and Longoria at the major league level. The Red Sox would still have Buckholz, Pedroia, and Ellsbury at the major league level.

 

Understand? The argument you seem to be advancing is "we could be a good rebuilding team if we wanted to because we could make trades (we'd never actually make and end up with the best farm system in baseball." That's technically true but if we did that we'd still have only something like the 15th best young talent in baseball because we'd have less young talent at the major league level than every other team. If we're middle of the pack in terms of young talent that wouldn't put us in a great position to rebuild or suggest that the organization is packed with assets.

[Jeremy]

I'm going to drop out of the argument, because I'm debating something I don't even agree with.

 

Williams came out with the comment. I am just trying to make sense, and I suppose defend what he said. He didn't say "If I traded away all our veteran players, we could have the best young team in the league. It wasn't even about "rebuilding". It was about having the best minor league farm system. For the 10th time, if Danks-Fields aren't on that minor league list right now, then they have to be included in those talks, since they could help in a big way in getting a better farm system.

 

I'm not saying it would be smart, or whatever. Thats not it at all. Just commenting on what Williams said.

 

Gotcha.

 

If Kenny thinks he could create the best young talent in baseball just by trading away his veterans...I don't know what he's thinking. Maybe he has a ridiculously inflated notion of our major league talent (which is highly possible).

 

I think Kenny is either wrong or disingenuous if he believes that we have such incredible assets that we could assemble amongst the best young talent in baseball. It's an oversimplification but if you're thinking about the strength of the organization, compare the ranking of the major league talent and the minor league talent. We'd be something like 15th and 30th. That's not good.

[southsider2k5]

Sort of like last summer, when the best offer the Sox could get for Jermaine Dye was Wily Mo Pena straight up?

 

Dye was also a three month rental at the time. Now he has a two year contract. That makes a big difference in trade dealings.

[iamshack]

So what you're telling me, is that IF the goal was to build the best farm system in baseball, you would not trade Swisher? I think you'd have to trade anyone you had with any value, and then anyone else you had whose value you foresaw decreasing. So, regarding Danks/Fields- if you saw their value improving, you'd hold them until their value might peak (probably a full 2 years or so from now).

 

But honestly, the A's went from a barren system to one considered to be one of the best systems. And guess how many White Sox prospects they just acquired? 5. So really, how bad was our system if Oakland's is now one of the best, by adding 5 of our prospects?

 

I find it hard to believe that people honestly believe that if you took this season, and maybe next offseason, and looked to move everything of value on this team, that our system wouldn't be top 3-4 in all of baseball. You could move Vazquez/Buehrle/Jenks/Dye/OCab/Crede/Swisher/Dotel/Linebrink/Konerko/Contreras? for probably 25-30 new prospects, at least 5-7 of them being solid, top 50-75 prospects. And THAT would put us into the top 3 in farm systems, and still leave us with Danks/Quentin/Fields, who, just might develop into players like the A's just traded to vault from 23 to 2 in one offseason.

 

Don't tell me it couldn't be done fairly easily, because if you think of all the deadline deals and offseason deals that go down, it really could be...