BP's Goldstein: Sox's Farm System Ranks Last

[iamshack]

A few more thoughts:

 

Teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Detroit (as mention in the slot article) have built their farm systems through offering players well-above slot money to players that have slipped because of the teams that have held allegiance to the slot system (namely, teams like us). Unfortunately, JR is close with Selig and thus we have not been able to take advantage of such inadequacies in the draft system.

 

Additionally, the ultimate goal is, and always will be, the strength of the major league club. And while farm systems are playing perhaps a larger role in that then ever before because of escalating free agent contracts, many of the teams with the best farm systems have not used them to strengthen their big league club as efficiently as the White Sox have. The Sox have consistently used their system to acquire proven major league talent at reasonable salaries (Garcia, Vazquez, Swisher) come to mind, (with near-misses on players like Delgado, Miguel Cabrera and AJ Burnett). This has allowed them to not only acquire players they might not ordinarily have a chance at acquiring, but also to avoid entering into poor free agent contracts which handcuff the payrolls of less fortunate teams.

 

Teams like the Dodgers and Angels have had great farm systems for several years, but have yet to really realize a benefit from them (no, the Angels 03' run had little to do with the status of their farm system over the past 3-4 seasons. Instead, they sit on their prospects forever, while many of them are blocked and thus lose value through advancing in age or injury occurring. The teams with the best systems are not normally the teams that experience the most mlb success, although the two are indeed becoming more and more linked than ever before.

 

After the core of this team has made their run, and they may only have 1 or 2 more years for them to make that run, we will see how Kenny rebuilds. But it certainly appears that he has the right idea- acquiring players like Quentin and Swisher this past offseason.

[CWSGuy406]

Dye was also a three month rental at the time. Now he has a two year contract. That makes a big difference in trade dealings.

 

That's a two-way street. He's also a year older, knee a little balkier. If he hits like he did in the second half of last year (or like he did in 2006), that's one thing, but otherwise, he's a 34-year old DH playing RF. He's got some value that'll vary on how he hits.

 

-----------

 

The Sox shouldn't be in the business of building up the best farm system, you're completely right about that. But even with all the trades that have made, there's no reason it should ever be as bad as it currently is right now. It's a pathetic state right now. That's not to say good players won't come out of it, but in this case "perceived" value helps -- just who is Kenny going to deal if he wants to supplement the 2008 team? There's not a lot down there.

 

And again, you're stretching the value of a lot of Sox players. Cabrera? Nobody's going to give up very much for half a season of an average shortstop. Linebrink? Heh. Contreras? Only if he bounces back to (at the very least) average levels and, even so, teams aren't going to give up a lot for a 36 (hah, that's good) year old with a balky back.

 

And also, you say the Sox clearly have the right frame of mind (or something close to that -- it's the morning, I'm operating on four hours of sleep here, so cut me some slack!) trading for Quentin... yet as of today, he appears to be the second horse in a two-horse race. Hell, Anderson is outperforming him. If Quentin doesn't start, it shows to me an organization with a clear lack of direction. Quentin has nothing left to do in the minors and deserves to be starting, yet the Sox are going to stick him behind a player whose upside (absolute upside, the best player he could possibly be -- I'm being nice and stretching things here) is 2003 Juan Pierre?

 

Maybe I'm jumping the gun a bit here with Quentin here, but if the season started today, do you honestly believe we'd see Quentin in LF when Carmona is on the mound for game two? I certainly don't...

[thedoctor]

We really can't be surprised by this. Nor does this particularly bother me. I am a fan of the Chicago White Sox, not the Charlotte Knights or Birmingham Barons.

 

i know this won't be popular here, and it is a bit flawed, but it still made me LOL.

 

[Vance Law]

A lot of "win now" teams don't have barren farm systems though.

 

I mentioned it earlier and I'd love to see someone who knows the farm systems well, go through on a team-by-team basis and look at the reasons for this.

 

At first glance, it seems to me, they include 1) Have a ridiculous amount of money (Yankees/Red Sox), 2) Go through multiple seasons of being terrible (Tigers, Indians, Rockies, DBacks, Rays), 3) The L.A. Way = Have a lot of money in an uncompetitive division, and block your young players with veterans (Dodgers, Angels).

 

[harfman77]

The point is though that this team is not in all likelihood going to compete for a playoff spot. They may stilll lose 90 games as the roster is composed right now so why not just do what Oakland is, find homes for your aging talent elsewhere and bring in some young players and prospects to try and fight another day. That means holding on to your current young talent,(IMO Danks, Fields, Ramirez, Quentin and Swisher) and bringing in pieces to support them. Use money that you save by sending out the veterans to sign amateur players and sign veteran players in free agency that fill the gaps to make your team competitive. Instead by staying the course and trying to play for today you just stay in a constant state of mediocrity.

[thedoctor]

The point is though that this team is not in all likelihood going to compete for a playoff spot. They may stilll lose 90 games as the roster is composed right now so why not just do what Oakland is, find homes for your aging talent elsewhere and bring in some young players and prospects to try and fight another day. That means holding on to your current young talent,(IMO Danks, Fields, Ramirez, Quentin and Swisher) and bringing in pieces to support them. Use money that you save by sending out the veterans to sign amateur players and sign veteran players in free agency that fill the gaps to make your team competitive. Instead by staying the course and trying to play for today you just stay in a constant state of mediocrity.

 

although i see your point and for the most part agree with you, your use of words like "likelihood", "may" and such suggest what kw probably thinks: yeah, perhaps on paper we don't stack up, but we didn't stack up in 2005 and looked what happened.

 

now, i understand that's probably not real sound from a logical standpoint. a lot went right for us in 2005 and to expect that to ever happen again is unrealistic. but let's say contreras bounces back and danks and floyd improve. all of a sudden you have a pretty decent team, and other factors (injuries, players unexpectedly declining/emerging) start to play more of a role in figuring things out than how things looked in march.

 

i'll grant you that i don't expect it. i'll probably pick us third in the division because i don't think we've done enough to surpass either cleveland or detroit. but i can promise kw isn't thinking that way and if and when there is a rebuilding, i highly doubt he is going to be around for it.

[Dick Allen]

I'm not a guy who thinks the farm system has to be ranked #1. It was at one time and probably helped KW get his current job. But I do think there has to be sufficient talent in the minors. There has to be guys who can step up in case of injury or poor performance. Everyone goes back and compares things to 2005. The White Sox used 6 starting pitchers in 2005. Its very rare that happens. There has to be someone on the farm you can call up and they can get people out, or call up and get a hit, and or catch and throw the ball, and know which base to throw to etc. Jenks was that guy in 2005. That really hasn't been the case most of KW's tenure and when injuries or poor performance call for a minor league call up, it doesn't look very promising this year either. Middle of the pack or slightly below with a couple of major league ready medicrity would be fine. I just don't see that right now.

[witesoxfan]

The point is though that this team is not in all likelihood going to compete for a playoff spot. They may stilll lose 90 games as the roster is composed right now so why not just do what Oakland is, find homes for your aging talent elsewhere and bring in some young players and prospects to try and fight another day. That means holding on to your current young talent,(IMO Danks, Fields, Ramirez, Quentin and Swisher) and bringing in pieces to support them. Use money that you save by sending out the veterans to sign amateur players and sign veteran players in free agency that fill the gaps to make your team competitive. Instead by staying the course and trying to play for today you just stay in a constant state of mediocrity.

 

I'm going to try and write exactly what you said, but instead say the complete opposite.

 

The point is though that this team could possibly compete for the playoffs. While not likely, it is possible that they could win 90 games, because the lineup has a good core of players, there are two proven starters, and if the bullpen pitches well, they have a shot. Going into the offseason, the Sox were about six pieces away from competing, two or three of which were already on the roster (though they have to improve). So, why not go all out like the Mets or Tigers and try and put yourself in the best position to win? That means trading your minor league talent for good players who will help you out and signing smaller pieces on the free agent market, because, even if you give out a bad contract or two, it will save you long-term investments that will likely turn out poorly. As opposed to giving Hunter $90 million over 6 years when his knees could by shot by year 4, relegating him to RF/DH, you can give $20 million over 4 to Linebrink and, worst comes to worst, pay some of his contract in the last two years and trade him for an A-ball reliever. Use the money and resources that you have to put the best product on the field you can while also building towards the future. By doing such, you have built a core that will lead the team into the next generation after the older players, such as Thome, Konerko, and Dye, are gone and you can build around the current pieces you have, such as Swisher, Quentin, and Fields. Even if you finish with a mediocre record this year, you still put the best product on the field you could while maintaining a vision for the future.

 

I can play that game too, and mine is just as true/far-fetched as your post.

 

The Sox minor league system was in shambles to begin with. Why not gut the whole thing and try to put the best team you can on the field? Those guys aren't going to help you now, and they may not have helped you in 2009 or 2010 either. It's obvious the Sox had soured on Sweeney, having attempted to deal him for Qualls. They like Gio, hence trading for him again, but it appeared the only reason they acquired him was to trade him again because they didn't feel his flyball tendencies would fit in well at the Cell. Why not get a guy in Swisher, who should become an outstanding hitter at the Cell? He's signed through like 2012 and is always going to produce for you.

 

I think KW saved his job this offseason. Had he had another 06/07 offseason, he would be on a major hot seat. As is, the Sox are in a position to atleast contend.

[witesoxfan]

I'm not a guy who thinks the farm system has to be ranked #1. It was at one time and probably helped KW get his current job. But I do think there has to be sufficient talent in the minors. There has to be guys who can step up in case of injury or poor performance. Everyone goes back and compares things to 2005. The White Sox used 6 starting pitchers in 2005. Its very rare that happens. There has to be someone on the farm you can call up and they can get people out, or call up and get a hit, and or catch and throw the ball, and know which base to throw to etc. Jenks was that guy in 2005. That really hasn't been the case most of KW's tenure and when injuries or poor performance call for a minor league call up, it doesn't look very promising this year either. Middle of the pack or slightly below with a couple of major league ready medicrity would be fine. I just don't see that right now.

 

All you can really do is hope that everyone stays pretty healthy offensively; I think the Sox can get by for about a month with one of Egbert/Broadway/Haeger in the rotation (but probably not two...so you have to hope Contreras doesn't go down in August if Danks/Floyd wear out). What I'm worried about is the offense, because there is little to nothing offensively in the minors at this point in time. AAA is going to be mostly filler with the possible exception of Alexi.

[Jeremy]

So what you're telling me, is that IF the goal was to build the best farm system in baseball, you would not trade Swisher? I think you'd have to trade anyone you had with any value, and then anyone else you had whose value you foresaw decreasing. So, regarding Danks/Fields- if you saw their value improving, you'd hold them until their value might peak (probably a full 2 years or so from now).

 

I'm talking about what your goal would be if you were rebuilding and that would be to assemble the most young talent possible, not the best minor league talent possible. You wouldn't turn down a deal for a 22 year old ready to play in the majors (with no service time) because you want to do well in farm system rankings written by members of the media. You'd want young talented players to rebuild so you wouldn't trade Fields or Danks. You'd hold onto them and rebuild with them.

 

As far as Swisher he's 26 already so you'd trade him the way the A's just did. I've previously discussed trading him in this thread.

 

But honestly, the A's went from a barren system to one considered to be one of the best systems. And guess how many White Sox prospects they just acquired? 5. So really, how bad was our system if Oakland's is now one of the best, by adding 5 of our prospects?

 

Nah, they got more than just our current and former prospects. Carlos Gonzalez is the best prospect they received.

 

You could move Vazquez/Buehrle/Jenks/Dye/OCab/Crede/Swisher/Dotel/Linebrink/Konerko/Contreras? for probably 25-30 new prospects, at least 5-7 of them being solid, top 50-75 prospects. And THAT would put us into the top 3 in farm systems, and still leave us with Danks/Quentin/Fields, who, just might develop into players like the A's just traded to vault from 23 to 2 in one offseason.

 

I don't think they get much for Crede, Dotel, Linebrink, Konerko, and Contreras. Nothing like what the A's got for Swisher and Haren. My question is couldn't most other teams in baseball say this?

[Soxfest]

Yankees and Cubs systems were ranked about dead last 3 years ago. KW has no one to blame but himself anymore!

Edited March 7, 2008 by Soxfest

[WCSox]

We really can't be surprised by this. Nor does this particularly bother me. I am a fan of the Chicago White Sox, not the Charlotte Knights or Birmingham Barons. Thus, I would rather have a strong MLB team than a stronger farm system.

 

No kidding. The Sox had an outstanding farm system back in the late '80s under Larry Himes. How many post-season wins did they get out of that group? IIRC, the Sox also had a Top 10 farm system back in the late '90s under Schueler. How many post-season wins did James Baldwin, Mike Sirotka, Kip Wells, Maggs, Carlos Lee, Ray Durham, and Keith Foulke garner?

 

Of course, I agree with the general sentiment that our farm system needs to be revamped and that Kenny is probably not the best person to do that. But remember that intelligently signing/trading for veteran talent (Contreras, Garcia, El Duque, Hermanson, Politte, Vizcaino, Dye, Tad, Uribe, Everett) is what put us over the top in '05. Ideally, one would want to completely build a championship team from the ground up for financial reasons, but it rarely works out that way. I'll take a ring any way I can get it.

 

[haroldbainesknees]

No kidding. The Sox had an outstanding farm system back in the late '80s under Larry Himes. How many post-season wins did they get out of that group? IIRC, the Sox also had a Top 10 farm system back in the late '90s under Schueler. How many post-season wins did James Baldwin, Mike Sirotka, Kip Wells, Maggs, Carlos Lee, Ray Durham, and Keith Foulke garner?

 

Of course, I agree with the general sentiment that our farm system needs to be revamped and that Kenny is probably not the best person to do that. But remember that intelligently signing/trading for veteran talent (Contreras, Garcia, El Duque, Hermanson, Politte, Vizcaino, Dye, Tad, Uribe, Everett) is what put us over the top in '05. Ideally, one would want to completely build a championship team from the ground up for financial reasons, but it rarely works out that way. I'll take a ring any way I can get it.

 

Exactly,

 

I would love for the Sox to have a loaded farm system with top 50 prospects at multiple positions, but that doesn't mean every prospect is going to develop into stars. The realistic bottom line is that Kenny & Ozzie prefer acquiring and working with veteran players, and as a fan I want a competitive team. The D-Rays have had a talented young core of position players for years and what has it gotten them? I could probably go back to June of 2004 and find posters calling for KW's head because the Mariners fleeced our farm system in the Freddy Garcia trade. I don't know which company Jeremy Reed is selling insurance for at the present time; but I know which city hosted a world series parade 15 months later.

[lvjeremylv]

You can build a decent farm system while still having a top-tier ball club with the payroll KW has. Right now it looks like we have neither.

The sad part is we're probably a stud starting pitcher away from being a top-tier club (granted, so are a handful of other teams). But the difference between having that #1 stud and a guy like Floyd, Danks, or Contreras is 7-10 games, and that's the difference between winning the Central vs. finishing in 3rd which is what we'll most likely do.

 

It's too bad we didn't have a way of trading for Bedard. He would have made us a legit '08 contender.

[kwolf68]

 

In other news, water is wet. If the Sox tank this year, we'll have a brand new farm system next year at this time, book it. That's why I am at peace with what KW has done.

 

He dumped all the prospects for another gung-ho go at the gold. If the team wins this year then it will have been worth it...if the team just misses, we may try again next year with some minor tinkering...if the team flames, we'll see the team totally revamped, that is why I am OK with the mad scientist KW right now. If EVERYTHING breaks right we can make post-season this year. Had we 'rebuilt' last year we couldn't say that.

 

So lets give it a go...and if crap falls apart we'll be doing next year what many wanted to do this year. Our minor leagues can be rebuilt via trades within a year or two.

[lvjeremylv]

In other news, water is wet. If the Sox tank this year, we'll have a brand new farm system next year at this time, book it. That's why I am at peace with what KW has done.

 

He dumped all the prospects for another gung-ho go at the gold. If the team wins this year then it will have been worth it...if the team just misses, we may try again next year with some minor tinkering...if the team flames, we'll see the team totally revamped, that is why I am OK with the mad scientist KW right now. If EVERYTHING breaks right we can make post-season this year. Had we 'rebuilt' last year we couldn't say that.

 

So lets give it a go...and if crap falls apart we'll be doing next year what many wanted to do this year. Our minor leagues can be rebuilt via trades within a year or two.

I generally agree with everything you said. That's why I like KW and his "win now" mentality. FAR too many fans out there follow teams that have management that never takes a chance and never risks looking bad. KW couldn't care less what the pundits say about him, and he's not gun shy about making moves he feels will help the Sox win now. Granted, that strategy doesn't always work (duh!), but even if it works once, it's worth it in my opinion.

 

And like you said, if by July we're under .500 and 15 games out of the playoff picture, you can bet we will be unloading a lot of players (probably Konerko, Dye, AJ, etc) and getting prospects in return. And yes, that will put us right back in the middle of the pack in terms of minor league depth.

 

Another thing to consider is we have 2 starters that *maybe* shouldn't even be in the majors. If both were on a team such as the Red Sox, Danks and Floyd would be pitching in AAA, so I think the fact they're in the majors should be taken into consideration when evaluating the strength (or lack thereof) of our minor league system. If they both were on our AAA team, I'm sure we wouldn't be dead last.

[gosox41]

I

 

And like you said, if by July we're under .500 and 15 games out of the playoff picture, you can bet we will be unloading a lot of players (probably Konerko, Dye, AJ, etc) and getting prospects in return. And yes, that will put us right back in the middle of the pack in terms of minor league depth.

 

 

I think this should have been done last season. The Sox have had 1 1/2 years of bad baseball. Winning maybe 83 games in 2008 doesn't do much for me.

 

 

 

Bob

[lvjeremylv]

I think this should have been done last season. The Sox have had 1 1/2 years of bad baseball. Winning maybe 83 games in 2008 doesn't do much for me.

Bob

I think I agree.

[AddisonStSox]

Prospects!!!!1!11!!!11!!!!11