Energy thread

[EvilMonkey]

 

http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive...rs/4255349.html

 

A little video here about ehe Automotive X-Prise event, the race for 100 MPG.

[EvilMonkey]

Air Force is trying to get in on the ground floor with new fuel technology, coal-to-oil.

 

http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/air-...322050509990002

[iamshack]

These economists seem to think that gas prices, nationally, will spike to around $3.50 to $3.75 per gallon by May, with some areas paying over $4. But, they say it will likely settle back to $3.25-ish, due to the decreased demand that goes with those price levels.

 

I hate to even go here, being not an expert but... I think I see a problem in that assumption. People's demand for gas is only variable on elective use - vacations and road trips, basically. They will still go to work, still go to the store, etc. So the variable part is only a very small fraction of the demand. The rest is almost static*.

 

* = the caveat here is that as prices go really high, people will start to do things like buy more hybrids and electric cars, get jobs closer to home, etc. But those sorts of things don't happen over a period of weeks. They take years to change enough for major effect to be felt.

 

Well, there has to be a breaking point somewhere, as you are alluding to in your caveat. Where exactly is it, I'll bet we are still a ways away before we see significant behavioral change. However, it is true that mass transit users are beginning to steadily increase, so that decrease in demand for gas may be linked to this as gas prices continue their slow ascent...

[southsider2k5]

These economists seem to think that gas prices, nationally, will spike to around $3.50 to $3.75 per gallon by May, with some areas paying over $4. But, they say it will likely settle back to $3.25-ish, due to the decreased demand that goes with those price levels.

 

I hate to even go here, being not an expert but... I think I see a problem in that assumption. People's demand for gas is only variable on elective use - vacations and road trips, basically. They will still go to work, still go to the store, etc. So the variable part is only a very small fraction of the demand. The rest is almost static*.

 

* = the caveat here is that as prices go really high, people will start to do things like buy more hybrids and electric cars, get jobs closer to home, etc. But those sorts of things don't happen over a period of weeks. They take years to change enough for major effect to be felt.

 

Ah yes the elasticity of gasoline. These last few years have been a really interesting live case study in something we studied pretty hard in college. Amazingly enough, energy has almost seemed to have had a reverse elasticity, as demand has kept going up as prices have tripled. It really is incredible, and completely contra-logical. Intellectually I really wonder what point it would take to get people to treat gasoline as they would any other thing that saw a dramatic increase in prices over a short period of time $5 a gallon? $10 a gallon?

[kapkomet]

Ah yes the elasticity of gasoline. These last few years have been a really interesting live case study in something we studied pretty hard in college. Amazingly enough, energy has almost seemed to have had a reverse elasticity, as demand has kept going up as prices have tripled. It really is incredible, and completely contra-logical. Intellectually I really wonder what point it would take to get people to treat gasoline as they would any other thing that saw a dramatic increase in prices over a short period of time $5 a gallon? $10 a gallon?

 

 

Ahhhhhhhhh hell, damn cold medicine..........

[southsider2k5]

Ahhhhhhhhh hell, damn cold medicine..........

 

Well actually, I was thinking more like...

 

"In a perfect world..."

 

Ah yes the good old days.

[jasonxctf]

i really don't think that demand will ever decrease substantially with price increases. as a society, our framework depends upon vehicular transportation. anyone who works in the suburbs, pretty much has to drive to work, grocery stores, doctors, etc.

 

On the flip side, maybe an increase in gas prices, leads to more people moving into the city then away from it?

[iamshack]

i really don't think that demand will ever decrease substantially with price increases. as a society, our framework depends upon vehicular transportation. anyone who works in the suburbs, pretty much has to drive to work, grocery stores, doctors, etc.

 

On the flip side, maybe an increase in gas prices, leads to more people moving into the city then away from it?

 

I disagree. I'm not saying that substantial behavioral change will occur quickly, but we are not as dependent on our current transportation practices as one might think.

 

Necessity is the mother of invention.

[NorthSideSox72]

i really don't think that demand will ever decrease substantially with price increases. as a society, our framework depends upon vehicular transportation. anyone who works in the suburbs, pretty much has to drive to work, grocery stores, doctors, etc.

 

On the flip side, maybe an increase in gas prices, leads to more people moving into the city then away from it?

I think we should hope it will lead to better urban planning. More mass transit, more businesses setting up shop in business centers, more people living in communities that aren't just endless sprawl... urban planning in this case is two-sided. People will try to live closer to work, and try to live in towns that are actual towns, with services nearby. Developers and politicians should think in terms of more efficient plans for cities.

 

[iamshack]

I think we should hope it will lead to better urban planning. More mass transit, more businesses setting up shop in business centers, more people living in communities that aren't just endless sprawl... urban planning in this case is two-sided. People will try to live closer to work, and try to live in towns that are actual towns, with services nearby. Developers and politicians should think in terms of more efficient plans for cities.

 

Well, one thing I rarely, if ever hear mentioned is the fact that many people, in all reality, do not HAVE to even commute to their jobs. There is absolutely no reason I can really think of why we cannot drastically increase the number of jobs which allow people to work from their homes. Other than a lack of direct supervision, which could be countered by work or project quotas, I don't understand why at least 20-30% of American workers cannot work from their homes and thereby eliminate all those miles driven or riding mass transit for a commute to work.

[NorthSideSox72]

Well, one thing I rarely, if ever hear mentioned is the fact that many people, in all reality, do not HAVE to even commute to their jobs. There is absolutely no reason I can really think of why we cannot drastically increase the number of jobs which allow people to work from their homes. Other than a lack of direct supervision, which could be countered by work or project quotas, I don't understand why at least 20-30% of American workers cannot work from their homes and thereby eliminate all those miles driven or riding mass transit for a commute to work.

That trend is well underway. I think companies are often a little leery of losing the control, for much the same reasons as they are often leery of true results-only work environments. Also, in this era of data security, there will be some fear associated with what is basically a distributed network model.

 

But as fuel costs increase, and people move more to companies that allow it... I think you will see a continued increase in working at home (at least some of the time).

 

[iamshack]

That trend is well underway. I think companies are often a little leery of losing the control, for much the same reasons as they are often leery of true results-only work environments. Also, in this era of data security, there will be some fear associated with what is basically a distributed network model.

 

But as fuel costs increase, and people move more to companies that allow it... I think you will see a continued increase in working at home (at least some of the time).

 

Yeah, I've heard/seen the trend to some degree. But to me, it seems like the most obvious (and realistic) steps that can be taken to reduce transportation costs, reliance on oil, stress on mass transit, traffic, quality of life, etc. And yet it doesn't seem to be an option discussed nearly as much as it should (IMO).

[YASNY]

I disagree. I'm not saying that substantial behavioral change will occur quickly, but we are not as dependent on our current transportation practices as one might think.

 

Necessity is the mother of invention.

 

That's under the assumption that invention is not surpressed.

[BigSqwert]

All I have to say is Whitestar Fall 2009. Sign me up.

[lostfan]

Yeah, I've heard/seen the trend to some degree. But to me, it seems like the most obvious (and realistic) steps that can be taken to reduce transportation costs, reliance on oil, stress on mass transit, traffic, quality of life, etc. And yet it doesn't seem to be an option discussed nearly as much as it should (IMO).

This is what made me so mad about the political haggling over the funding of the CTA, and I don't even live in Chicago anymore. It's common sense to me. I just wanted to barge in on one of those meetings and say "Good god just give the CTA its money and STFU, don't ask questions why, just do it, if you can't see the obvious benefits and necessities you are a moron and should not be in any level of political office"

[NorthSideSox72]

All I have to say is Whitestar Fall 2009. Sign me up.

 

explain, please.

[BigSqwert]

 

explain, please.

 

Through the course of development of the Roadster, Tesla Motors has established a leadership position in EV technology which it plans to extend over the next years, leading to the introduction of its next model, a five passenger sports sedan, in 2010.

 

LINK

[StrangeSox]

Base price is expected to be $50k, last I heard.

[NorthSideSox72]

LINK

Ah, OK. I had heard they were going for a sedan next, wasn't familiar with the branding yet.

 

[BigSqwert]

Base price is expected to be $50k, last I heard.

The premium is reported to be in the 65-70 range.

 

http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9717581-7.html

[Balta1701]

For some additional fun, there's a potential strike looming in the United Kingdom that has the potential to knock 700,000 barrels of oil a day in production offline. If a 1 day strike happens, it'll probably take a week to restart the facility in question.

[Balta1701]

Ah-Ha, found the ol' energy thread. Bumpage.

 

Businessweek says they got their hands on some documents from the Kingdom, which they're claiming show projections for the Kingdom's production over the next few years. Basically, they have their own number showing their production going up slightly, but then sort of stagnating after about 1 more year, with their total gasoline production declining because their production of light crude will be dropping compared to the heavier, more energy intensive refining crude, starting within about 2 years.

 

 

Basically...the math here is pretty simple. If Saudi Arabia can't sustain their current production levels...then any drilling around the U.S. is going to be a fly on the wall compared to what the world's production loses if they start declining.

[southsider2k5]

Ah-Ha, found the ol' energy thread. Bumpage.

 

Businessweek says they got their hands on some documents from the Kingdom, which they're claiming show projections for the Kingdom's production over the next few years. Basically, they have their own number showing their production going up slightly, but then sort of stagnating after about 1 more year, with their total gasoline production declining because their production of light crude will be dropping compared to the heavier, more energy intensive refining crude, starting within about 2 years.

 

 

Basically...the math here is pretty simple. If Saudi Arabia can't sustain their current production levels...then any drilling around the U.S. is going to be a fly on the wall compared to what the world's production loses if they start declining.

 

So in other words we had better start drilling now before the price gets to $10 a gallon and we don't have an economy left anyway. We really should have started drilling a decade ago. Those million barrels per day would be nice right now.

[NorthSideSox72]

So in other words we had better start drilling now before the price gets to $10 a gallon and we don't have an economy left anyway. We really should have started drilling a decade ago. Those million barrels per day would be nice right now.

Or, we better start putting up solar and wind arrays, and start putting better tax incentives on purchases of solar cells and hybrid or electric vehicles.

 

Or all the above.

 

[Balta1701]

Or, we better start putting up solar and wind arrays, and start putting better tax incentives on purchases of solar cells and hybrid or electric vehicles.

 

Or all the above.

I'd be more than happy, as would a lot of Dems btw, to drop opposition to drilling in a lot of areas (although the offshore stuff is still troublesome for other reasons, especially in tourism-rich areas...oil spills aren't that great for Miami beach) in exchange for a legit program to do exactly that along with a legit carbon price. Considering that all the drilling this country could possibly do can't disguise the fact that Saudi Arabia has 10x more oil than we do and their production is peaking and domestic U.S. production peaked 30 years ago...I'd be willing to sacrifice a bit of the environment to finally get a real program started.

 

It really is something that you can think of like an addiction. Going cold turkey is hard. But your choices are cutting back starting right now or, well, death. You can have a little bit more, but if you dont' cut back you're screwed.