Joakim Noah/The NBA Draft

[Balta1701]

Guy I want most on this team is OJ Mayo.

I think I agree with you on a decent amount of stuff based on your post, but I'm still just not sold on OJ Mayo. Or for that matter, on Eric Gordon. I just don't think either of them have really showed me that plugging them in to our lineup is going to be a quick fix.

 

But, I think the back court is the place that the overhaul should happen. Between Gooden, Tyrus, and Noah, with Gray as a 4th option, I think we actually have a solid frontcourt that if we ever develop it or ever, you know, stop playing 4 guards and Gooden for 10 minute periods down the stretch as leads bleed away (Seriously, how many leads does this small lineup need to lose for the Bulls before Boylan realizes..."hmmm, rebounding down the stretch might be useful"). If you pencil down Goodon, TT, and Noah for 30 minutes a game between those 3 positions, I think the Bulls set up a solid front court rotation next year.

 

I'm less sold on the back court though. Ben Gordon is looking to me like a time bomb. He didn't get his contract this year and it showed. He clearly was missing a lot this season. Instead of taking a step forwards, he took a step backwards. He doesn't look to make anything happen for anyone but himself, he's not a ball handler, he's not getting better at his weaknesses, he wants a lot more money than what he's worth to this team, and he's convinced he's an all star starter if he ever gets the minutes, which he doesn't earn. He's a hard worker by all accounts, but I'm just not sure he's a smart worker.

 

I'm sorta happy with Thabo and Hughes...Hughes would be hard to move now, but he has a contract that expires in the Wade/Lebron/Melo year, which makes him very valuable as a trading chip in a year or two, he's actually able to slash in to the lane and break down a defense or draw a foul, which is what Gordon seemingly refuses to ever try, despite the fact that he should be great at it as fast as he is. He's guaranteed to make some mistakes. But I can live with some of those. And Thabo's development this year, although it's been stunted since he got hurt/since his minutes vanished when he came back, but a 15 point 8 rebound guard who can play real good defense could be darn useful.

 

I think that the PG position is where we have to try to upgrade, is the message overall. I like our rotations in the front court, at SG if we can trim away some of the excess people, but with the way Hinrich has performed this year I just can't see him carrying this team.

[nitetrain8601]

I think I agree with you on a decent amount of stuff based on your post, but I'm still just not sold on OJ Mayo. Or for that matter, on Eric Gordon. I just don't think either of them have really showed me that plugging them in to our lineup is going to be a quick fix.

 

But, I think the back court is the place that the overhaul should happen. Between Gooden, Tyrus, and Noah, with Gray as a 4th option, I think we actually have a solid frontcourt that if we ever develop it or ever, you know, stop playing 4 guards and Gooden for 10 minute periods down the stretch as leads bleed away (Seriously, how many leads does this small lineup need to lose for the Bulls before Boylan realizes..."hmmm, rebounding down the stretch might be useful"). If you pencil down Goodon, TT, and Noah for 30 minutes a game between those 3 positions, I think the Bulls set up a solid front court rotation next year.

 

I'm less sold on the back court though. Ben Gordon is looking to me like a time bomb. He didn't get his contract this year and it showed. He clearly was missing a lot this season. Instead of taking a step forwards, he took a step backwards. He doesn't look to make anything happen for anyone but himself, he's not a ball handler, he's not getting better at his weaknesses, he wants a lot more money than what he's worth to this team, and he's convinced he's an all star starter if he ever gets the minutes, which he doesn't earn. He's a hard worker by all accounts, but I'm just not sure he's a smart worker.

 

I'm sorta happy with Thabo and Hughes...Hughes would be hard to move now, but he has a contract that expires in the Wade/Lebron/Melo year, which makes him very valuable as a trading chip in a year or two, he's actually able to slash in to the lane and break down a defense or draw a foul, which is what Gordon seemingly refuses to ever try, despite the fact that he should be great at it as fast as he is. He's guaranteed to make some mistakes. But I can live with some of those. And Thabo's development this year, although it's been stunted since he got hurt/since his minutes vanished when he came back, but a 15 point 8 rebound guard who can play real good defense could be darn useful.

 

I think that the PG position is where we have to try to upgrade, is the message overall. I like our rotations in the front court, at SG if we can trim away some of the excess people, but with the way Hinrich has performed this year I just can't see him carrying this team.

 

I'm not sold on Gordon either. I always thought if you drafted him, you're drafting Ben Gordon part 2, except I still think Ben is more explosive as a scorer and Eric really did look awful down the stretch. Pretty much a non-factor as well in his tournament game.

[ZoomSlowik]

I don't want OJ Mayo anywhere near this team, right now he's basically Ben Gordon with a weaker jumpshot and isn't quite as awful defensively. He goes 1 on 5 with regularity and very rarely creates anything for his teammates. A 44 FG% and a 3.3/3.5 Ast/TO ratio bodes very poorly for the NBA. He'll score points, but that's about all he'll do, and rather inefficiently at that. That makes it hard to win, as shown by USC's 20-10 record and 1st round loss to an inferior team. He's an especially suspect fit if Hughes and/or Gordon is still here next year, since all of them are shoot-first players and none of them can distribute the ball and create for others with any kind of efficency. Even with Hinrich's drop-off in play he has an Ast/TO ratio well north of 2, which is more than you can say for any of them (yeah, I know, Hughes is at about 2.1/1 with the Bulls. That's a pretty small sample size.). I'm not saying Hinrich is the long time answer at PG since he appears to have forgetten how to hit 3's and defend, but it's clearly not any of those guys.

Edited March 24, 2008 by ZoomSlowik

[DBAHO]

But, I think the back court is the place that the overhaul should happen. Between Gooden, Tyrus, and Noah, with Gray as a 4th option, I think we actually have a solid frontcourt that if we ever develop it or ever, you know, stop playing 4 guards and Gooden for 10 minute periods down the stretch as leads bleed away (Seriously, how many leads does this small lineup need to lose for the Bulls before Boylan realizes..."hmmm, rebounding down the stretch might be useful"). If you pencil down Goodon, TT, and Noah for 30 minutes a game between those 3 positions, I think the Bulls set up a solid front court rotation next year.

 

I think that the PG position is where we have to try to upgrade, is the message overall. I like our rotations in the front court, at SG if we can trim away some of the excess people, but with the way Hinrich has performed this year I just can't see him carrying this team.

This is the problem I see though.

 

I don't know if TT is going to have a role with the Bulls after this season (especially if they hire Rick Carlisle)

 

So if he leaves, they need a replacement. And in the draft there's not many PG's. Augustin is too small, Rose and Bayliss will go top 5. The only guy I can see who would make sense is Darren Collison from UCLA, who's got great speed and is very good defensively, but he's slated to go around 15 at this point.

[ZoomSlowik]

This is the problem I see though.

 

I don't know if TT is going to have a role with the Bulls after this season (especially if they hire Rick Carlisle)

 

So if he leaves, they need a replacement. And in the draft there's not many PG's. Augustin is too small, Rose and Bayliss will go top 5. The only guy I can see who would make sense is Darren Collison from UCLA, who's got great speed and is very good defensively, but he's slated to go around 15 at this point.

 

Well, Bayless is actually generally considered a combo guard, at least at this point in his development. From what I've seen I have a little more faith in him being an effective scoring PG than either Mayo or Gordon, though he has the same turnover problems and forces things too often as well.

 

Russell Westbrook is the only other name that you didn't list. In terms of raw tools he may even be the equal of Rose, he's very quick, is an explosive leaper and has good size. The problem is he's considerably less polished as a PG and doesn't have a particularly good jumper. The smart money would say he can go back and improve his stock by playing the point next year, but even if Collison leaves and he doesn't super-frosh Jrue Holliday could hold back his development anyways. It might not be a bad idea to snag him and keep Hinrich around another year, that way at worst he's a defensive stopper off the bench while he picks up some of the nuances. That should be kind of a last resort though.

 

I kinda doubt they'll trade Tyrus in the off-season. They already had numerous opportunites to deal him when he had much higher value, now they'd probably struggle to get good value for him. I'd imagine they'll keep him and Noah around and hope that they'll both progress, even if there are flaws with that approach.

Edited March 24, 2008 by ZoomSlowik

[DBAHO]

Oh yeah forgot about Westbrook, nabdraft.net had him as a SG, but his profile says PG/SG, who compares to Monta Ellis, and going at #8 currently.

 

He actually sounds exactly what the Bulls need.

Has a great attitude, extremely coach-able

 

A backcourt of Westbrook - Thabo would cause a lot of problems defensively, but you'd need a 3PT threat somewhere else I'd say (unless the coach doesn't you shooting them ALA Philly).

[nitetrain8601]

I don't want OJ Mayo anywhere near this team, right now he's basically Ben Gordon with a weaker jumpshot and isn't quite as awful defensively. He goes 1 on 5 with regularity and very rarely creates anything for his teammates. A 44 FG% and a 3.3/3.5 Ast/TO ratio bodes very poorly for the NBA. He'll score points, but that's about all he'll do, and rather inefficiently at that. That makes it hard to win, as shown by USC's 20-10 record and 1st round loss to an inferior team. He's an especially suspect fit if Hughes and/or Gordon is still here next year, since all of them are shoot-first players and none of them can distribute the ball and create for others with any kind of efficency. Even with Hinrich's drop-off in play he has an Ast/TO ratio well north of 2, which is more than you can say for any of them (yeah, I know, Hughes is at about 2.1/1 with the Bulls. That's a pretty small sample size.). I'm not saying Hinrich is the long time answer at PG since he appears to have forgetten how to hit 3's and defend, but it's clearly not any of those guys.

 

Ben Gordon and OJ Mayo are in no way comparable. They play completely and I mean completely different games. And you cannot compare college stats to NBA stats. There's way less spacing in college and Tim Floyd's offensive system has really crippled Mayo's game. Everyone on USC tries to go 1 on 5 and that's why they never played like a team. And Kansas State isn't really inferior. They have Michael Beasley who many considered the best player in his high school class along with Bill Walker who many considered better than OJ Mayo.

 

Let's get this straight, Mayo was never asked to create at USC. He was asked to purely score by Tim Floyd and he embraced that role. Floyd has said so before and continues to praise OJ on his work ethic and leadership.

 

I'd take any of the other guys you mentioned over Hinrich as a starting PG. Hinrich can't shoot and he's terrible at creating for others. His best asset which was defense, has been lost. He brings nothing to the table unless you call dribbling out 15 seconds of the clock, driving, and then kicking it out to the opposing team good.

[Rowand44]

Give me Brook Lopez.

[Rowand44]

Well, Bayless is actually generally considered a combo guard, at least at this point in his development. From what I've seen I have a little more faith in him being an effective scoring PG than either Mayo or Gordon, though he has the same turnover problems and forces things too often as well.

 

Russell Westbrook is the only other name that you didn't list. In terms of raw tools he may even be the equal of Rose, he's very quick, is an explosive leaper and has good size. The problem is he's considerably less polished as a PG and doesn't have a particularly good jumper. The smart money would say he can go back and improve his stock by playing the point next year, but even if Collison leaves and he doesn't super-frosh Jrue Holliday could hold back his development anyways. It might not be a bad idea to snag him and keep Hinrich around another year, that way at worst he's a defensive stopper off the bench while he picks up some of the nuances. That should be kind of a last resort though.

 

I kinda doubt they'll trade Tyrus in the off-season. They already had numerous opportunites to deal him when he had much higher value, now they'd probably struggle to get good value for him. I'd imagine they'll keep him and Noah around and hope that they'll both progress, even if there are flaws with that approach.

Westbrook is a pretty brutal pg at this point(definitely not his position) but as you said the raw talent is pretty nuts there. Problem is that I'd prefer to not have another shorter sg.

[ZoomSlowik]

Westbrook is a pretty brutal pg at this point(definitely not his position) but as you said the raw talent is pretty nuts there. Problem is that I'd prefer to not have another shorter sg.

 

Yeah, he's more of a developmental prospect.

[rangercal]

My opinion of Noah is the same as Tyrus Thomas, They do not get enough minutes. The Bulls have NO IDEA how to develop young players and will eventually trade them for crap ( Like they did with Tyson Chandler) . Lopez will not change anything if he comes to Chicago.

[ZoomSlowik]

Ben Gordon and OJ Mayo are in no way comparable. They play completely and I mean completely different games. And you cannot compare college stats to NBA stats. There's way less spacing in college and Tim Floyd's offensive system has really crippled Mayo's game. Everyone on USC tries to go 1 on 5 and that's why they never played like a team. And Kansas State isn't really inferior. They have Michael Beasley who many considered the best player in his high school class along with Bill Walker who many considered better than OJ Mayo.

 

Let's get this straight, Mayo was never asked to create at USC. He was asked to purely score by Tim Floyd and he embraced that role. Floyd has said so before and continues to praise OJ on his work ethic and leadership.

 

I'd take any of the other guys you mentioned over Hinrich as a starting PG. Hinrich can't shoot and he's terrible at creating for others. His best asset which was defense, has been lost. He brings nothing to the table unless you call dribbling out 15 seconds of the clock, driving, and then kicking it out to the opposing team good.

 

Riiiight, two off-guards that shoot a lot, don't create for others, and turn it over at a high rate are totally not comparable. I guess the guys that write the profiles at NBAdraft.net agree with that comparison for no particular reason. About the only real difference is that Gordon shoots more 3's because he is a bit more effective at it, and I guess Mayo does a lot less of the ball (though that's probably more of an experience thing). If anything Gordon was more productive in college at distributing the ball, and he actually played off the ball a lot with Taliek Brown playing the point. You're ripping on Hinrich for holding the ball too long, but what exactly does Mayo do that's so different? Does he not dominate the ball and then try to do something at the end of every shot clock? At least when Kirk does it someone might hit an open jumper, Mayo the best you can hope for is a contested shot the majority of the time. That's not exactly a new thing at USC either, he's been doing that basically his whole career. And yes, USC is better than K-State, that team is totally sub-par outside of Beasley and Walker (who's pretty streaky, and was only considered an elite prospect before the ACL injury). USC has another potential 1st rounder with Jefferson, a solid college big man with Gibson, and two other reasonably capable guards with Hackett and Lewis. Despite that it all basically comes down to whether Mayo converts at a decent rate or not. They were actually a better team last year with Young, Pruitt (2.41 AST/TO ratio in the same system by the way), and Stewart in the backcourt and without Jefferson, which is pretty weird given all the hype with Mayo.

 

I'm still trying to get how you can logically say that a guy with a negative assist/TO ratio in college in any way creates more shots for teammates effectively than a guy that consistently averages over 6 assists in the pros at a ratio well over 2:1. Maybe somewhere down the road he can get better with improved decision making, but he's nowhere close to that now and is always going to create for himself first. Hinrich isn't a great PG by any stretch of the imagination, but at least he actually tries to pass the ball more than 10% of the time. You have the same problem with Hughes and Gordon, they're both always going to look for their shot first, which hurts the offensive flow even worse than Hinrich's over-dribbling.

 

Mayo is going to be an above average scorer, but without drastic improvements to his decision making and passing abilities he's going to end up being a guy that puts up great stats but hurts your team in the long run like Stephon Marbury or Jamal Crawford. Realistically there isn't that much difference between him and Larry Hughes, which isn't exactly a good thing given his shooting percentages and the records of the various teams on his resume and the fact that Cleveland essentially gave him away.

Edited March 24, 2008 by ZoomSlowik

[lostfan]

My opinion of Noah is the same as Tyrus Thomas, They do not get enough minutes. The Bulls have NO IDEA how to develop young players and will eventually trade them for crap ( Like they did with Tyson Chandler) . Lopez will not change anything if he comes to Chicago.

Now that Wallace is gone Noah gets plenty of minutes and he's been actually developing at a pretty encouraging rate. I don't think his ceiling is ever going to be that high but now that he's gotten a genuine opportunity, he routinely is in double figures for rebounds or points, and has a good nose for the ball.

 

Thomas, on the other hand, yeah that's completely different. When they give him minutes he actually does look like he's producing at a faster rate but then his numbers go waaaaaay down for every time Boylan only lets him play for 8 minutes. I don't understand it. Just let the guy play, damn, you knew what the deal was when you traded away what would've been a linchpin on your team. If you don't he's never gonna amount to anything.

[nitetrain8601]

Riiiight, two off-guards that shoot a lot, don't create for others, and turn it over at a high rate are totally not comparable. I guess the guys that write the profiles at NBAdraft.net agree with that comparison for no particular reason. About the only real difference is that Gordon shoots more 3's because he is a bit more effective at it, and I guess Mayo does a lot less of the ball (though that's probably more of an experience thing). If anything Gordon was more productive in college at distributing the ball, and he actually played off the ball a lot with Taliek Brown playing the point. You're ripping on Hinrich for holding the ball too long, but what exactly does Mayo do that's so different? Does he not dominate the ball and then try to do something at the end of every shot clock? At least when Kirk does it someone might hit an open jumper, Mayo the best you can hope for is a contested shot the majority of the time. That's not exactly a new thing at USC either, he's been doing that basically his whole career. And yes, USC is better than K-State, that team is totally sub-par outside of Beasley and Walker (who's pretty streaky, and was only considered an elite prospect before the ACL injury). USC has another potential 1st rounder with Jefferson, a solid college big man with Gibson, and two other reasonably capable guards with Hackett and Lewis. Despite that it all basically comes down to whether Mayo converts at a decent rate or not. They were actually a better team last year with Young, Pruitt (2.41 AST/TO ratio in the same system by the way), and Stewart in the backcourt and without Jefferson, which is pretty weird given all the hype with Mayo.

 

I'm still trying to get how you can logically say that a guy with a negative assist/TO ratio in college in any way creates more shots for teammates effectively than a guy that consistently averages over 6 assists in the pros at a ratio well over 2:1. Maybe somewhere down the road he can get better with improved decision making, but he's nowhere close to that now and is always going to create for himself first. Hinrich isn't a great PG by any stretch of the imagination, but at least he actually tries to pass the ball more than 10% of the time. You have the same problem with Hughes and Gordon, they're both always going to look for their shot first, which hurts the offensive flow even worse than Hinrich's over-dribbling.

 

Mayo is going to be an above average scorer, but without drastic improvements to his decision making and passing abilities he's going to end up being a guy that puts up great stats but hurts your team in the long run like Stephon Marbury or Jamal Crawford. Realistically there isn't that much difference between him and Larry Hughes, which isn't exactly a good thing given his shooting percentages and the records of the various teams on his resume and the fact that Cleveland essentially gave him away.

 

Again, Mayo shoots alot because he is asked to by Floyd. I don't know why you ignore this. Floyd told him that's what he wants from him. Mayo could easily play facilatator. Only time when he starts going 1-on-5 is when he's hot, then, yes he will start chucking shots, but the greats do as well. Gordon is also asked to score by the Bulls because that's his best assett. What do you want a SG to do? His main job is to score and play defense. That's why Hughes shoots alot too. That's their job.

 

Mayo plays really good defense and I've seen him smother opposing defenders. He just has trouble guarding super quick guys, but even at that, when him and Derrick Rose played each other in AAU ball, there were times when Rose simply could not get past him and vice versa.

 

USC has better individual talent than Kansas State, but they're not a great team. Their system is terrible and they have too many individuals such as Davon. Plus, the spacing again makes it terrible for players such as Mayo who use their quick first step to set up alot of their offense. It's a reason why Derrick Rose hasn't looked like a superstar. Both players will be much better in the NBA.

 

As far as Hinrich, he's a mediocre PG. A great 5th starter and by that, you have to surround him with a ton of talent or with a bonafide superstar. His jumpshot has never been anything to write home about, and it took him a long time to be able to make a post entry pass which I'm still not so sure he could do with consistency. He's a natural SG as well. That's where he played in college and high school. His defense is what put him above the rest of this team, and he's no longer great at that. He also gets cheap fouls after he feels there was a blown call and he loves to complain to the refs.

 

Cleveland gave Larry Hughes away because he was a terrible fit. He isn't a half-court player and he needs the ball in his hands to create. Mike Brown basically runs the "Give LeBron the ball and get out of the way offense" which made the rest of the team stagnant. Hughes loves to run, Cleveland never did. The injuries as well were just the writing on the wall.

 

OJ Mayo today is alot better than Hughes or any other guard on the Bulls team and it's not even close.

[ZoomSlowik]

There are plenty of other SG's out there that are still the team's primary scorers that distribute the ball a lot more and are a lot more efficient with the ball. Plus that's not the point, the problem is people (including you) are casting him as a PG, which he clearly isn't. If he's going to play SG and constantly jack up shots without worrying about the rest of the team, fine, he can go ahead and be Jamal Crawford. Otherwise, he'll need to improve in those aspects, and for our purposes that'd be pretty important given the presence of Hughes and Gordon at the moment (unless we feel like modeling ourselves after the Knicks I guess).

 

Last thing I'm going to throw in on that, an article Balta posted on talkbulls:

 

Real value of OJ Mayo and Eric Gordon

 

Here's a little highlight:

 

"When we turn to Win Score - a metric that can tell us something about lighting up a box score — we see little reason to be optimistic about Gordon or Mayo. Entering Sunday’s action, Gordon had posted a 6.7 Win Score per 40 minutes (WS40) played. Mayo has a mark of 6.0. When we look at all shooting guards drafted out of college between 1991 and 2006 (and who played at least some significant minutes in the NBA), we see an average WS40 of 8.7 the last year the player played college basketball. In other words, Gordon and Mayo are far below average.

 

To put “far below average” in perspective, here are the shooting guards with a WS40 below 7.0 (again from 1991 to 2006): Kareem Rush, Kirk Snyder, Toby Bailey, Tony Dumas, Lawrence Moten, Courtney Alexander, Ed Gray, DeJuan Wheat, Chris Smith, Jimmy King, Felipe Lopez, Larry Hughes, and Jamal Crawford."

 

 

So yeah, he puts up decent stats but doesn't really help you all that much, as I've been saying. It's also important to note he plays 36 minutes a game while putting up these stats, which makes them look better than someone like Rose that plays under 30. There's a very good chance he'll put up a shooting percentage below 40% next year with a 3 point percentage closer to 30 than 40 given the sizeable difference between the college 3 and the pro 3.

Edited March 24, 2008 by ZoomSlowik

[Balta1701]

Because I'm all about being fair and balanced, here's a different perspecive on Mayo:, via Bill Simmons.

Nearly a year ago, I wrote a basketball blog about the McDonald's All-American Game comparing Kevin Love to Mayo and predicted that Mayo might become my least-favorite player since Vince Carter before everything was said and done. Then the college season started and we realized that Mayo wasn't close to being the next LeBron; when Billy Packer slapped the "overrated" tag on him during a CBS game in December, for the first time in 25 years, I found myself agreeing with Billy. When the predictable "O.J.'s not that good!" backlash started, Mayo freefalled on the draft boards and became somewhat of an afterthought on the college scene.

 

In the middle of February, Someone Who Knows Things urged me to give Mayo another chance and think of him simply as a talented swingman and a potential lottery pick. I watched a couple of USC games and, much to my surprise, found myself becoming a semi-fan. All of Mayo's annoying chest-puffing and posturing had been shelved; his shot selection had been corralled considerably; and what remained was a world-class athlete with genuine gifts as a defender and passer, a streak scorer who took over games for extended stretches, someone with a first step so quick it's hard to imagine how he could fail as a pro (especially when you throw in his body and the way guys seem to bounce off him LeBron-style). Believing that the NCAA tournament would double as Mayo's coming-out party as a top-four pick, I picked USC to make the Final Four in a shaky region, never expecting an enigmatic K-State team to knock the Trojans out.

 

So what do we make of Mayo as a prospect? Drop the LeBron comparison and think of him more like Andre Iguodala, only if Iguodala was a first-class passer ... and if he isn't one of the top-five picks in June, I will be flabbergasted. He's too good. More importantly, thanks to Mayo's growth at USC over the past two months, Vince Carter remains safe as my least-favorite player of this generation.

[ZoomSlowik]

Lottery pick yes, he clearly has talent, and I'm not terribly impressed with this draft so I could even buy top-5. Answer to all of the Bulls problems, no. Not sure where the passing thing comes from though, I've watched a handful of USC games and seen one pass I'd consider impressive. I also haven't seen anything that shows that he's as explosive as Iguodala, though he's definitely above average.

Edited March 24, 2008 by ZoomSlowik

[nitetrain8601]

Lottery pick yes, he clearly has talent, and I'm not terribly impressed with this draft so I could even buy top-5. Answer to all of the Bulls problems, no. Not sure where the passing thing comes from though, I've watched a handful of USC games and seen one pass I'd consider impressive. I also haven't seen anything that shows that he's as explosive as Iguodala, though he's definitely above average.

 

Mayo is more like Kobe. And just to let you know, Andre wasn't as good as OJ was in college. As someone who followed OJ through AAU ball, he will be special at the next level. I will bet you $100 he shoots at least 40% his first year and closer to 40% from the 3 point line.

[ZoomSlowik]

Mayo is more like Kobe. And just to let you know, Andre wasn't as good as OJ was in college. As someone who followed OJ through AAU ball, he will be special at the next level. I will bet you $100 he shoots at least 40% his first year and closer to 40% from the 3 point line.

 

Andre was much more raw and on a much better team so his stats weren't that impressive. I would assume the comparison would be to what he is now, which is a pretty solid all-around SG, though he's also on a bad team that's going nowhere. Either way Kobe is a stretch, he'd be doing so much more if he were really on that level and wouldn't be a borderline top-5 pick if he were. Kobe is a once every ten years type player, Mayo can't come close to that yet. He's so "special" that there are two other guys in his class putting up very similar numbers and another player at another position that is playing far better.

 

You were probably one of the same people that said the same thing about Durant last year, weren't you? There's a very big difference between the two leagues, everyone is a lot quicker and stronger and things get a lot more difficult. Even assuming the same level of talent, the 3-point line is two feet farther back, which is just a huge difference. He's barely shooting 40% in college from the arc, I have a really hard time seeing him adjust to that, especially since he's pretty streaky from out there as it is. He simply can't play the same way and be productive, though he'll probably get his numbers. He will have an above average career in the league because he clearly has talent, but there's a very big difference between being a good scorer and being a legit star.

Edited March 25, 2008 by ZoomSlowik

[knightni]

This is the first year in awhile that there seems to be no clearcut #1 guy. Beasley is the best of them if he comes out, but he'd be no better than Top 5 pick, compared to other years.

[ZoomSlowik]

This is the first year in awhile that there seems to be no clearcut #1 guy. Beasley is the best of them if he comes out, but he'd be no better than Top 5 pick, compared to other years.

 

That doesn't really appear to be the case at all. He's being compared pretty favorably to Durant and Carmelo Anthony. He's been absolutely dominant and guys as productive as him are pretty rare. The only thing that might stop him from going #1 are some concerns about his attitude/maturity, but those seem to have subsided a bit. Rose is also considered to be in the same league as virtually any PG has come out in recent years. The rest of the draft appears to be far less certain though.

[knightni]

I look at Beasley, I see Shawn Marion, a guy drafted in the teens.

 

I'm not an expert on Rose, but to me, very few point guards come out and "light it up" right away. Jason Kidd - the exception.

[ZoomSlowik]

I look at Beasley, I see Shawn Marion, a guy drafted in the teens.

 

I'm not an expert on Rose, but to me, very few point guards come out and "light it up" right away. Jason Kidd - the exception.

 

Eh, maybe. Marion wasn't as dominant a scorer in college, and he was a bit under-hyped because he went to UNLV instead of a major conference school. He also wasn't as hyped coming out of high school, again docking his stock a bit. He still went #9 anyways, and given the same status coming in and going to a bigger school (pretty sure it was for academic reasons) he likely would have gone higher.

 

True, most PG's do struggle a bit their first year or two (Chris Paul being another exception). You need a diverse skill set to succeed at the NBA level at the position. Besides the usual athleticism/scoring/defense things you also need to be able to run the offense, know where your teammates are/should be/will be, be able to balance looking for your own shot and creating for others, ect. Rose is considered one of the better prospects because he has all of the physical tools and has shown at least decent ability in most of those areas for one of the best teams in the country. He hasn't been quite as solid as some recent guys, but he's also considered to have a really high ceiling, thus the high draft stock.

 

Granted those two may not have been top-5 prospects in 2003, but they definitely would have in 2006, and even last year at least one of them would have cracked the top-5 given different timing in all likelyhood.

Edited March 25, 2008 by ZoomSlowik

[knightni]

My basic point was, that the upcoming draft seems shallower in talent and has less hype than most drafts in the past that I've seen, outside of 1986 or 1987.

[ZoomSlowik]

My basic point was, that the upcoming draft seems shallower in talent and has less hype than most drafts in the past that I've seen, outside of 1986 or 1987.

 

That definitely appears to be true, a lot of the guys at the top of the draft appear to be tweeners, developmental prospects, or guys may not have the athleticism to be above average starters at the next level. I'm not particularly thrilled with this group and would personally like to see the Bulls trade the pick if they can get decent value.