The Offense: 2007 vs. 2008

[BearSox]

He is pretty much a league-average CF. To say he is terrible out there is just plain hyperbole. His only real knock on him is his arm, and that's what keeps him from being able to separate himself from being average.

League average? Have you ever seen him out there? He can't read flyballs, and has possibly the weakest arm in all of baseball. To say he's a league average CF is beyond asinine.

[chitownsportsfan]

Yeah, your basic point still does stand. We had a lot of guys that sucked really bad and were AAA players or fringe bench players at best starting a lot of games last year.

 

 

It's an easy call really. Fields puts up a 101 OPS+ for his young (yet to reach his prime by any measure) and Crede (who is past his prime) puts up a career OPS+ of 92. Zips has Crede at .756 OPS and Fields at .785. Factor in that Crede will not be a White Sox next year and that Fields is only 25 and it's a no brainer who should be on the roster and playing everyday.

 

It's just a chickens*** move by the organization to try and wring anything else out of Crede in some vain and desperate attempt to get some value back for him. Just f***ing DFA him and eat the salary or trade him for a C prospect.

 

It's funny that in an organization STARVED for position player prospects they stupidly block the progress of one of their best position prospects.

[Balta1701]

Even as a person who wanted to see Fields get the job...the 6 k's in his first 8 AB's at AAA this season aren't anything to write home about yet. Maybe he does have some stuff to work on there, even if it's just brief.

[Friend of Nordhagen]

Even as a person who wanted to see Fields get the job...the 6 k's in his first 8 AB's at AAA this season aren't anything to write home about yet. Maybe he does have some stuff to work on there, even if it's just brief.

 

This has been a problem for him since he came up in 2006 and, to some extent, last year: for all of his power, he actually has kind of a slider-speed bat. Good eye, short swing -- but slow through the zone. It's not usually the breaking stuff that gets him; it's letter-high fastballs.

[southsidehawkeye]

League average? Have you ever seen him out there? He can't read flyballs, and has possibly the weakest arm in all of baseball. To say he's a league average CF is beyond asinine.

 

 

Although i dont think he is a horrible CFer, gotta agree with you on the arm thing... he is at the bottom of the list.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...d-arms-of-2007/

 

i thought that was a pretty nice breakdown of OF arms. Owens was 3rd to last in CF. Who was bringing up the tail end of the list? Juan Pierre.

[chitownsportsfan]

This has been a problem for him since he came up in 2006 and, to some extent, last year: for all of his power, he actually has kind of a slider-speed bat. Good eye, short swing -- but slow through the zone. It's not usually the breaking stuff that gets him; it's letter-high fastballs.

 

See, that's the thing. Strikeouts aren't really much worse than any other out. The fact that he has good power and a decent eye largely mitigate his low average and high K rate. I'd argue that I'd much rather have a player like Fields at the plate than someone like Crede -- Crede might not strike out much but his low avg, horrible eye, and decent power all overshadow this.

[BearSox]

Even as a person who wanted to see Fields get the job...the 6 k's in his first 8 AB's at AAA this season aren't anything to write home about yet. Maybe he does have some stuff to work on there, even if it's just brief.

I wouldn't be surprised if it is something mental going on with him... After all, he had a very good rookie season, outpreforms Crede in ST, and yet he gets sent down.

[RockRaines]

Pierzynski's ability to spray the ball for hits stems from applying coach Harold Baines' theory, seconded by hitting coach Greg Walker, of driving the ball where it's pitched, rather than trying to pull every pitch.

 

"In the past, he always gave at-bats away and got himself out," manager Ozzie Guillen said.

[G&T]

I wouldn't be surprised if it is something mental going on with him... After all, he had a very good rookie season, outpreforms Crede in ST, and yet he gets sent down.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he's finally facing pitchers that aren't in spring training working on throwing strikes rather than getting guys out. He could also be a slow starter.

I wasn't a fan of Crede starting at 3rd this season, but a healthy Crede is better than Fields right now.

[RockRaines]

I wouldn't be surprised if he's finally facing pitchers that aren't in spring training working on throwing strikes rather than getting guys out. He could also be a slow starter.

I wasn't a fan of Crede starting at 3rd this season, but a healthy Crede is better than Fields right now.

Huh? Finally facing minor league pitching making him worse? And you dont know who is better right now since Josh is in AAA. There is no debate unless they are both up facing major league pitching.

[G&T]

Huh? Finally facing minor league pitching making him worse? And you dont know who is better right now since Josh is in AAA. There is no debate unless they are both up facing major league pitching.

 

I said facing non-spring training pitching could be making him worse. There's a difference.

[Dick Allen]

See, that's the thing. Strikeouts aren't really much worse than any other out. The fact that he has good power and a decent eye largely mitigate his low average and high K rate. I'd argue that I'd much rather have a player like Fields at the plate than someone like Crede -- Crede might not strike out much but his low avg, horrible eye, and decent power all overshadow this.

Next time the bases are loaded an one is out and someone strikes out, remember it is no worse than a flyball to LF.

[RockRaines]

Next time the bases are loaded an one is out and someone strikes out, remember it is no worse than a flyball to LF.

But better than a ground ball dp. Love apples and oranges!!!

[Dick Allen]

But better than a ground ball dp. Love apples and oranges!!!

How about a man on 3rd and 1 out and a strikeout?

[daa84]

See, that's the thing. Strikeouts aren't really much worse than any other out. The fact that he has good power and a decent eye largely mitigate his low average and high K rate. I'd argue that I'd much rather have a player like Fields at the plate than someone like Crede -- Crede might not strike out much but his low avg, horrible eye, and decent power all overshadow this.

great post...unlike yourself, so many people on here choose to ignore the hundred years or so worth of statistics that suggest that a strike out is basically the same as any other out

[Dick Allen]

great post...unlike yourself, so many people on here choose to ignore the hundred years or so worth of statistics that suggest that a strike out is basically the same as any other out

Then don't be pissed next time there's a lead off hit and the guy bunting fouls a couple off and winds up striking out. An out is an out. Also don't be pissed with a runner at second if Juan Uribe hits a grounder to 3rd with nobody out. An out is an out. A lot more runs score and runners advance on outs that are not strikeouts than on strikeouts. We aren't even mentioning errors.

Edited April 5, 2008 by Dick Allen

[Dick Allen]

But better than a ground ball dp. Love apples and oranges!!!

During a spring training game thread, you went out of your way to praise Fields for hitting a grounder to first that advanced a runner, and you were right. Now you think there is no difference between a strikeout and any other out?

[RockRaines]

During a spring training game thread, you went out of your way to praise Fields for hitting a grounder to first that advanced a runner, and you were right. Now you think there is no difference between a strikeout and any other out?

Nothing like comparing situational at bats vs generic outs. Keep it up, proves exactly no point whatsoever.

 

Some of the best hitters in the MLB are high strikeout guys, including this division. Sizemore, Granderson, Thome. There is a time for situational hitting and just plain hitting. When its not a situation where you need a grounder or a SAC fly (which doesnt count as an out to the hitter btw) a strikeout is the same as any other out. There are times when groundouts are worse, and times where flyouts are worse and of course k's too. Those are SITUATIONS and each has a positive and negative outcome depending on the out. But yeah, lets keep comparing the two, because its better to make no sense than not post at all.

[fathom]

No offense to DA and Rock, as they're two of my favorites on this site. However, I'm so sick of the Crede/Fields debate. I'm just going to root for both of them to do well, and try to avoid making any comments about how the other one would have done in a particular situation. Hopefully, Fields does great in the minors, and the Sox either re-sign Crede and trade Fields at peak value, or Crede leaves via FA, and Fields is ready to step in.

[lostfan]

If Fields's average was... say... 40 points higher, there would be no concern whatsoever about how often he strikes out. Hell, a lot of power hitters strike out a lot. But they make up for it because they get walked a lot and they will have more than enough OBP to make up for all those outs. Fields does not. Jim Thome will strike out 150 times in a year, sure. He will also get walked 110 times. Konerko's numbers are similar on a smaller scale b/c he doesn't strike out as much, Dye gets less walks than either of them, but also has a career average of .275 that's usually higher when he's healthy which makes it not really matter. Fields, on the other hand, struck out 125 times and walked 35 times. His ratios in the minors don't really back up a claim that he's just had this problem since getting called up to the majors, either. It basically means he has trouble hitting the ball, which to most people should be a big red flag that means he still needs time to develop as a player instead of trying to make him out to be an automatic All-Star in his second year starting.

 

This is not to say that Fields will never be a good player because he will. It's to say that there is plenty of evidence that Fields has things to work on before he becomes a reliable everyday MLB player, and "strikeouts are no different than any other out" is a weak rebuttal to that.

[Dick Allen]

Nothing like comparing situational at bats vs generic outs. Keep it up, proves exactly no point whatsoever.

 

Some of the best hitters in the MLB are high strikeout guys, including this division. Sizemore, Granderson, Thome. There is a time for situational hitting and just plain hitting. When its not a situation where you need a grounder or a SAC fly (which doesnt count as an out to the hitter btw) a strikeout is the same as any other out. There are times when groundouts are worse, and times where flyouts are worse and of course k's too. Those are SITUATIONS and each has a positive and negative outcome depending on the out. But yeah, lets keep comparing the two, because its better to make no sense than not post at all.

The quote was strikeouts are the same as any other out. I took any to mean any. Silly me. Also, while it doesn't as an AB, a SF is nonetheless an out unless I really haven't been paying attention and the rule was changed. BTW, did you see how the Astros got their go ahead run baserunner on base yesterday. A groundball "out" to second, bobbled for an error. Toronto tried to play the "fantasy baseball" style not caring about strikeouts or steals or hit and runs and failed miserably.

Edited April 5, 2008 by Dick Allen

[almagest]

The quote was strikeouts are the same as any other out. I took any to mean any. Silly me. BTW, did you see how the Astros got their go ahead run baserunner on base yesterday. A groundball "out" to second, bobbled for an error. Toronto tried to play the "fantasy baseball" style not caring about strikeouts or steals or hit and runs and failed miserably.

 

And the Red Sox have done the same and have 2 World Series titles in the past 4 years. I'm also not sure how you can take one play in one game and cite that as decisive evidence.

[Dick Allen]

And the Red Sox have done the same and have 2 World Series titles in the past 4 years. I'm also not sure how you can take one play in one game and cite that as decisive evidence.

Think what you want. Strikeouts are not productive. Runners don't advance. Runs don't score. The defense is not pressured to make a play. If a guy like Fields could cut his strikeouts to 150 in a full season, that would be 50 more times he makes contact. I'm guessing some of those times those will be hits. Some of those times runners would advance on outs he made, and sometimes he would reach on an error. I know, I'm crazy.

Edited April 5, 2008 by Dick Allen

[effectivelywild]

Think what you want. Strikeouts are not productive. Runners don't advance. Runs don't score. The defense is not pressured to make a play. If a guy like Fields could cut his strikeouts to 150 in a full season, that would be 50 more times he makes contact. I'm guessing some of those times those will be hits. Some of those times runners would advance on outs he made, and sometimes he would reach on an error. I know, I'm crazy.

 

 

Well, hell, of course. I would love it if he could do that. I mean, his average would jump, and his on base percentage and slugging and virtually all of his stats would, all things being equal, go up as well. In fact, if he could just replace every one of those strikeouts with a home run, he'd be one of the better hitting third basemen of all time.

 

But see, that's the problem with the ol' "well, if he'd just strike out less some of those AB's would be hits" argument. You're essentially saying "gee, I wish he'd have a higher BA." And the argument hinges on another caveat---that if Fields changed his approach and mechanics to strike out less, it could, on the other hand, lead to him taking less walks or even (gasp!) hitting for less power as he starts taking more conservative swings.

 

So it's sort of like me saying "Gee, I just wish Fields was a better hitter"

 

A more fair comparison, then, is trying to figure out the value of all those potentially productive outs vs. the strikeout. And I'm pretty sure that I've read that the value of those potential productive outs is mostly done away with the additional DP's he'd hit into. I think that over the course of a full season, the value of "productive outs vs. KO's for a hitter" is about 1 run, though I'd have to find the numbers. If you have others that contradict me, I'd love to be better informed.

 

Long story short, I'm pretty sure the end result is that all outs are more or less equal, from a run scoring standpoint.

[chitownsportsfan]

Well, hell, of course. I would love it if he could do that. I mean, his average would jump, and his on base percentage and slugging and virtually all of his stats would, all things being equal, go up as well. In fact, if he could just replace every one of those strikeouts with a home run, he'd be one of the better hitting third basemen of all time.

 

But see, that's the problem with the ol' "well, if he'd just strike out less some of those AB's would be hits" argument. You're essentially saying "gee, I wish he'd have a higher BA." And the argument hinges on another caveat---that if Fields changed his approach and mechanics to strike out less, it could, on the other hand, lead to him taking less walks or even (gasp!) hitting for less power as he starts taking more conservative swings.

 

So it's sort of like me saying "Gee, I just wish Fields was a better hitter"

 

A more fair comparison, then, is trying to figure out the value of all those potentially productive outs vs. the strikeout. And I'm pretty sure that I've read that the value of those potential productive outs is mostly done away with the additional DP's he'd hit into. I think that over the course of a full season, the value of "productive outs vs. KO's for a hitter" is about 1 run, though I'd have to find the numbers. If you have others that contradict me, I'd love to be better informed.

 

Long story short, I'm pretty sure the end result is that all outs are more or less equal, from a run scoring standpoint.

 

 

Pretty much says it all here. Look, everyone is happy when productive outs happen. Hell, some players are good productive out players. But there is a reason that when the coaches ask the players to "hit one to first, one to 2nd, one to 3rd, one in the gap, flyout to right, etc" in practice about 2 out of the team actually do it well. It's a f***ing great skill to be able to have such great bat control. But it's also a great skill to hit 2-1 fastballs over the fence in left -- something Fields does very well.

 

Fields over Crede is an obvious decision.