2008 General Election Discussion Thread

[bmags]

Does anyone read vanity fair? I don't and I'm curious if the title of the magazine is meant to be sarcastic or if its about all things vain. It doesn't really pertain to the cover.

 

Eh I always thought it was a literary reference to the satirical novel but I never read it so I don't know.

 

It's just a fashion, culture, essay magazine. Had the huge article on the torture memos and U.S.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Week in Review (July 23th-29th)

Quinnipiac Out of It's Mind

 

Virginia (PPP (D)) - Obama 46%, McCain 44%....... +2.0

Colorado (Rasmussen ) - Obama 50%, McCain 47%....... Obama +3.0

Florida (Rasmussen) - McCain 47%, Obama 49%....... Obama +2.0

Colorado (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP) - Obama 44%, McCain 46%....... McCain +2.0

Michigan (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP) - Obama 46%, McCain 42%....... Obama +4.0

Wisconsin (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP) - Obama 50%, McCain 39%....... Obama +11.0

Minnesota (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP) - Obama 46%, McCain 44%....... Obama +2.0

Minnesota (Rasmussen) - Obama 52%, McCain 39%....... Obama +13.0

New Jersey (Monmouth Univ.) - Obama 48%, McCain 34%....... Obama +14.0

South Carolina (Research 2000) - McCain 53%, Obama 40%....... McCain +13.0

New Hampshire (Rasmussen) - Obama 49%, McCain 45%....... Obama +4.0

Pennsylvania (Rasmussen) - Obama 51%, McCain 45%....... Obama +6.0

New Mexico (Rasmussen) - Obama 49%, McCain 43%....... Obama +6.0

California (Rasmussen) - Obama 52%, McCain 42%....... Obama +10.0

Mississippi (Research 2000) - McCain 51%, Obama 42%....... McCain +9.0

North Dakota (Research 2000) - McCain 45%, Obama 42%....... McCain +3.0

North Carolina (PPP (D)) - McCain 47%, Obama 44%.......McCain +3.0

 

Penn is an interesting survey. The Rasmussen poll shows Obama +6 and the Strategic Vision poll shows Obama +9. In 2004, Rasmusseen polls tended to lean in favor of democrats compared to final results and Strategic Vision tended to lean in favor of republicans compared to final results. So, what does this say? Both polls show a strong favor towards Obama. PA might be a lock for Obama.

 

I am throwing the “Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP” polls out for the time being. 2 of them were way off compared to past polling and other polls conducted at the same time. Note Minnesota where one polls says Obama is up 13, but the Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP poll says he's only up 2. And, the Colorado poll is also a little off. No poll in recent months has shown McCain AHEAD in Colorado, so I have doubts about that one.

Edited July 30, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[jasonxctf]

check out the latest McCain ad... pretty sad. Didn't know that Obama was just like Paris Hilton or Britney Spears.

 

 

In fact I wonder if Spears or Hilton can sue to remove their likeness from an ad? How would that be any different than Coke using a picture of Hilton? (or Hilton doing coke... )

[bmags]

check out the latest McCain ad... pretty sad. Didn't know that Obama was just like Paris Hilton or Britney Spears.

 

 

In fact I wonder if Spears or Hilton can sue to remove their likeness from an ad? How would that be any different than Coke using a picture of Hilton? (or Hilton doing coke... )

 

I question why they used those two celebrities, you know? Of all the people with huge fame in america, they chose paris hilton and britney spears to be paired with Barack Obama.

 

Trying a little sub-conscious workings are you McCain?

[HuskyCaucasian]

General Election Ad Spending Has Topped $50M

 

Television ad spending has exceeded $50M in the first two months of the general election campaign, according to a report issued today by the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project.

 

Barack Obama and John McCain have aired more TV spots in more markets than their counterparts did during the 2004 campaign. From June 3, the end of the primary contest, to July 26, Obama and McCain have aired more than 100K ads on broadcast TV, compared with 77K aired over the same period in 2004.

 

McCain's camp has spent more than $21M on TV ads since June 3, while his Dem rival has sunk more than $27M into spots. The Republican National Committee has bolstered McCain's advertising effort, spending $3.6M to air 6,005 spots over the last two months. The Democratic National Committee, meanwhile, has yet to air a single presidential election ad.

 

Obama aired 9K more spots than the presumptive GOP nom, 55,312 to 46,563. But add the RNC's buy to the mix and the margin between the candidates drops to 2,744 ads.

 

Other interesting items in the report:

 

-- Obama is airing ads in 37 markets where McCain has not aired a single spot;

 

-- Although FL was the pivotal state in the 2000 contest and remains a critical battleground for both candidates, McCain has not aired an ad there since June 3, while Obama has aired more than 7K ads in the Sunshine State;

 

-- In addition to FL, Obama is airing ads exclusively in GA, NC, IN, MT and AK, states that neither Al Gore in 2000 nor John Kerry in 2004 won;

 

-- With all the talk about the candidates' potential abilities to expand their electoral playing fields, the noms are making their greatest investment in traditional Midwest/Rust Belt battlegrounds: OH, MI and PA;

 

-- PA leads the pack with $10.3M in total campaign ad spending, followed by OH ($6.4M), MI ($6M), FL ($5M), VA ($4.4) and WI ($3.2M); and

 

-- The top 20 media markets in order are Philly, Detroit, Cleveland, Grand Rapids, Cincinnati, Harrisburg, La Crosse, Milwaukee, Las Vegas, Denver, Madison, Columbus (OH), Lansing, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Albuquerque, Toledo, Youngstown, Reno and Wilkes Barre.

[mr_genius]

I question why they used those two celebrities, you know? Of all the people with huge fame in america, they chose paris hilton and britney spears to be paired with Barack Obama.

 

Trying a little sub-conscious workings are you McCain?

 

hopefully no one accidentally votes for Paris Hilton. i suppose they could just recount votes and the ones written in for Paris Hilton would be changed to Obama due to voter intent. Those ballots were confusing!

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

-- Although FL was the pivotal state in the 2000 contest and remains a critical battleground for both candidates, McCain has not aired an ad there since June 3, while Obama has aired more than 7K ads in the Sunshine State;

I normally dont post polls other than my weekly review, but this warrants mentioning based on that data:

 

Florida (Quinnipiac) - McCain 44%, Obama 46%....... Obama +2.0

Ohio (Quinnipiac) - Obama 46%, McCain 44%....... Obama +2.0

 

These two polls reinforce other recent polling in these states. (There was one outlier Ohio poll with McCain +10)

Edited July 31, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[HuskyCaucasian]

Election Day polls start to close at this moment in exactly 92 days.

Edited August 4, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[BigSqwert]

From Mad magazine:

 

 

 

[BigSqwert]

With all the breathlessness over the minute movements in the irrelevant national polls, the one thing no one seems to be noticing is that the electoral map is still trending very poorly for John McCain ( R ).

 

I realize that it cuts against the media narrative right now to focus on anything that doesn't suggest a dead-heat, but it's quite instructive to see how the independent groups (and even right-leaning ones) currently see the state of the race through the only prism that matters -- the Electoral College:

 

 

If you think about the reporting of the fluctuating state polls lately that show a tight race, all of them involve red states that McCain can't afford to lose: Colorado, Montana, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Alaska, Georgia, etc.

 

Despite the media narrative that a number of blue states are competitive, the truth is none of the recent polling shows McCain making any significant inroads in the blue states. Consider:

 

* In Michigan, McCain had not led in any poll since May;

* In Pennsylvania, McCain has not led in any poll April, and a Republican poll released last week showed McCain trailing by 9, in line with the current Pollster.com average;

* In New Hampshire, McCain has not led in any poll since April;

* In Minnesota, while one recent poll showed McCain within the margin of error, no other poll in the past month (including one poll taken more recently) has him within 12 points.

 

So, while the media breathlessly reports the national tracking polls which shows a close race, the state polling is still showing a pretty significant Obama lead.

 

P.S. -- Again reminding us how big of a joke CNN's political reporting has become, their current electoral map has it Obama 221, McCain 189. What a farce.

 

LINK

[HuskyCaucasian]

LINK

To buttress that, it looks like while the "childish" McCain attacks might have worked in the short term, it didn't stick:

 

Gallup: Obama +4 (Obama 47, McCain 43)

AP-Ipsos Poll: Obama +6 (Obama 47, McCain 41)

 

Note: the same Ipsos poll done in early June had a similar spread. So, not much shift.

[BigSqwert]

To buttress that, it looks like while the "childish" McCain attacks might have worked in the short term, it didn't stick:

 

Gallup: Obama +4 (Obama 47, McCain 43)

AP-Ipsos Poll: Obama +6 (Obama 47, McCain 41)

 

Note: the same Ipsos poll done in early June had a similar spread. So, not much shift.

Sorry but part of the reason I posted that blog piece was to discredit national polls. What good are they for? They're about as relevant as the Clinton campaign's attempt at pushing the popular vote idea in the primaries. They ultimately mean nothing.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Sorry but part of the reason I posted that blog piece was to discredit national polls. What good are they for?

Well, yes and no. I agree that in general national polls mean little, BUT they can be used for a few things.

 

1) You can see some trends. No doubt that after the McCain attacks that the poll numbers plummeted. Now that it is over, Obama rebounds.

2) They can be used to view the nation as a whole. Chuck Todd of MSNBC has this interesting analysis: While national polls largely mean nothing, they can be an electoral college indicator. A national poll lead of 2-3% translates to a tight electoral college race. But, a 5-7% lead is an electoral college landslide.

Edited August 5, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[BigSqwert]

Well, yes and no. I agree that in general national polls mean little, BUT they can be used for a few things.

 

1) You can see some trends. No doubt that after the McCain attacks that the poll numbers plummeted. Now that it is over, Obama rebounds.

2) They can be used to view the nation as a whole. Chuck Todd of MCNSB has this interesting analysis: While national polls largely mean nothing, they can be an electoral college indicator. A national poll lead of 2-3% translates to a tight electoral college race. But, a 5-7% lead is an electoral college landslide.

Why not just study electoral college polls? Isn't that what ultimately will matter?

[HuskyCaucasian]

Why not just study electoral college polls? Isn't that what ultimately will matter?

The problem is that states tend to roll in over time. Maybe you get one or two polls from a state a month. (Yes, this will heat up big time come Sept and Oct) So, you can use a national poll to gauge public opinion. Ideally, I'd love to see polls from all 50 states every day, but it's just not possible. So, national polls are as good as we can get.

 

I want to make myself clear, I prefer sate by state over national. No doubt about it. That's why I include the state polls in my weekly recap and not the national stuff.

[BigSqwert]

Well unless one candidate is up by 10% or more in a national poll I'll continue to completely ignore them.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Well unless one candidate is up by 10% or more in a national poll I'll continue to completely ignore them.

Fair enough

[KipWellsFan]

To an extent polls at this point don't indicate much of anything. I actually believe that the biggest factor polls have at this time is in driving the media narrative. At first when the polls may have been narrowing the media may have talked more about the attack ads and why they're working, but now that Obama seems to be bouncing back the story is probably again going to shift to whatever problems McCain may be having at the time.

 

One thing I would note is that Obama for the last week or two was having some struggles on the energy issue, the race card, and the attack ads, and his polls dipped down only into a tie. But the polls never went much lower than that. Every candidate has their times in the peaks and in the valleys, and if that's as deep a valley Obama dips to (a tie), then McCain's got problems. IMO

[HuskyCaucasian]

One thing I would note is that Obama for the last week or two was having some struggles on the energy issue, the race card, and the attack ads, and his polls dipped down only into a tie. But the polls never went much lower than that. Every candidate has their times in the peaks and in the valleys, and if that's as deep a valley Obama dips to (a tie), then McCain's got problems. IMO

That's a really good analysis.

[bmags]

I hate how polls are covered in the newspaper like this is a football game.

[kapkomet]

I hate how polls are covered in the newspaper like this is a football game.

GO DEEP!

 

[mr_genius]

I'm surprised it's as close as it is all things considered

[lostfan]

I hate how polls are covered in the newspaper like this is a football game.

If it was, Obama would be in the prevent defense, and McCain would have abandoned his run game trying to score as fast as possible.

[Balta1701]

No idea where to put this, but it has to go somewhere. Paris Hilton responds to John McCain.

 

See more Paris Hilton videos at Funny or Die

 

The frightening thing is...she has a better energy policy than McCain or Bush.

[lostfan]

No idea where to put this, but it has to go somewhere. Paris Hilton responds to John McCain.

 

See more Paris Hilton videos at Funny or Die

 

The frightening thing is...she has a better energy policy than McCain or Bush.

LOL... actually she does.

 

"Crisis solved b****es"

 

(Oh, btw I hate Paris Hilton)