2008 General Election Discussion Thread

[whitesoxfan101]

Or maybe it's because you guys are cynical as hell and will make whatever excuses you can so you can ignore the quality of candidates like John McCain and Barack Obama who are both great Americans.

 

And "change" is one of the most successful and often repeated strategies in winning elections and support all over the world, in fact I would encourage Obama to continue to say it, and say it more, and say it in different ways.

 

You could call us cynical as hell just as easily as you could call the Obama fans naive as hell. The entire race you will hear Obamatrons calling McCainiacs cynical, just as McCainiacs will call Obamatrons naive. It will be interesting to watch play out from that angle, among many others.

Edited August 22, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[jasonxctf]

imo this election is going to come down to the new voter registration advantages that the dems have gained in the past year in several states. people who previously had not voted, who may (or may not) be coming out to vote in November.

 

College kids and young people show up, Obama wins close states like Nevada, Iowa and Colorado. Those 3 states move blue and Obama keeps all of Kerry's states its a 286-252 advantage for Barrack. Even if McCain takes Romney who somehow turns Michigan Red, its 269-269, plus Nebraska splits its votes up proportionately. Obama will take 1 of the 3 electoral votes out of Nebraska, thus 270-268.

 

Larger than normal African American vote puts North Carolina, Indiana and even Georgia in play.

 

They no show, like they did for Kerry in 2004... McCain's got this one wrapped up.

[whitesoxfan101]

imo this election is going to come down to the new voter registration advantages that the dems have gained in the past year in several states. people who previously had not voted, who may (or may not) be coming out to vote in November.

 

College kids and young people show up, Obama wins close states like Nevada, Iowa and Colorado. Those 3 states move blue and Obama keeps all of Kerry's states its a 286-252 advantage for Barrack. Even if McCain takes Romney who somehow turns Michigan Red, its 269-269, plus Nebraska splits its votes up proportionately. Obama will take 1 of the 3 electoral votes out of Nebraska, thus 270-268.

 

Larger than normal African American vote puts North Carolina, Indiana and even Georgia in play.

 

They no show, like they did for Kerry in 2004... McCain's got this one wrapped up.

 

The african american vote is going to show up big time for Obama, but I doubt the young people vote does. The allure and popularity of Obama on places like college campuses is wearing off quite a bit, you can't keep a 20 year old's attention that long. Just my opinion though, it's going to be a close race either way unless something very strange happens.

[Balta1701]

They no show, like they did for Kerry in 2004... McCain's got this one wrapped up.

Based on exit polling data, I believe the turnout amongst young voters in 2004 was actually the highest it had been in quite some time.

[mr_genius]

Based on exit polling data, I believe the turnout amongst young voters in 2004 was actually the highest it had been in quite some time.

 

thats what the swiftboaters want you to think

[Balta1701]

thats what the swiftboaters want you to think

Seriously, now this is just insulting.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Based on exit polling data, I believe the turnout amongst young voters in 2004 was actually the highest it had been in quite some time.

If I remember right, t was actually par for the course. I did election day coverage on a radio station and the "youth vote" was a story line of the election and I swear I remember it being fairly low.

[mr_genius]

Seriously, now this is just insulting.

 

Sorry about that. I seem to have come down with a horrible case of swiftboat fever.

[Balta1701]

If I remember right, t was actually par for the course. I did election day coverage on a radio station and the "youth vote" was a story line of the election and I swear I remember it being fairly low.

I'll cite a Pew study here...

Highest %age of the electorate 18-29 since 1992, and an even higher turnout rate than that year.

[HuskyCaucasian]

I'll cite a Pew study here...

Highest %age of the electorate 18-29 since 1992, and an even higher turnout rate than that year.

I stand corrected. maybe it was that they expected higher turnout. It was 4 years ago. I dont remember what was for dinner last night.

[bmags]

The african american vote is going to show up big time for Obama, but I doubt the young people vote does. The allure and popularity of Obama on places like college campuses is wearing off quite a bit, you can't keep a 20 year old's attention that long. Just my opinion though, it's going to be a close race either way unless something very strange happens.

 

meh, i think you are wrong. Main reason is the amount of volunteers is way higher than for Kerry.

[lostfan]

I don't care which candidate you like, this is pretty clever

 

[Rex Kickass]

Interesting graphic comparing Tax Plans

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...8060900950.html

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Interesting graphic comparing Tax Plans

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...8060900950.html

 

but Obama's gonna tax the middle and lower class into hell. He's an evil tax and spend liberal

[NorthSideSox72]

Interesting graphic comparing Tax Plans

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...8060900950.html

 

Is there an option C?

 

[Balta1701]

Is there an option C?

Which part that appears in both candidates tax plans turns you against them both?

[NorthSideSox72]

Which part that appears in both candidates tax plans turns you against them both?

Well, I personally don't think the tax structure (in terms of income tax rates) should change at all, except for annual slot bumps based on COLA.

 

But if it were to change... one, I don't like the idea of giving new tax breaks to the uber-rich, as McCain is planning. When the government is running huge deficits, we are waging 2 wars, and we are in dire straights in energy policy, I see that as an assinine move. Two, I don't like that Obama is putting huge (and those are huge) tax INCREASES on the rich either. That takes money out of the capital markets, ultimately (people in those top two tiers spend what the spend regardless, but any money lost to taxes will be taken away from their investments, IMO). And that helps no one.

 

This federal government needs to balance its budget, get the hell out of Iraq, and go moon-shot towards alternative energy. It can't do that with EITHER of those tax plans, IMO.

 

[lostfan]

Yeah... Obama's tax increase does make me cringe, but McCain's plan is honestly delusional. I don't like either one. If it weren't for that I'd probably be totally in the tank for Obama.

[Rex Kickass]

Well, I personally don't think the tax structure (in terms of income tax rates) should change at all, except for annual slot bumps based on COLA.

 

But if it were to change... one, I don't like the idea of giving new tax breaks to the uber-rich, as McCain is planning. When the government is running huge deficits, we are waging 2 wars, and we are in dire straights in energy policy, I see that as an assinine move. Two, I don't like that Obama is putting huge (and those are huge) tax INCREASES on the rich either. That takes money out of the capital markets, ultimately (people in those top two tiers spend what the spend regardless, but any money lost to taxes will be taken away from their investments, IMO). And that helps no one.

 

This federal government needs to balance its budget, get the hell out of Iraq, and go moon-shot towards alternative energy. It can't do that with EITHER of those tax plans, IMO.

 

If I'm not mistaken, those tax increases are basically just a roll back of the taxcuts to the wealthiest 1% in the last 8 years.

[kapkomet]

Interesting graphic comparing Tax Plans

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...8060900950.html

 

What DOESN'T this show?

 

Corporate taxes?

Investment taxes?

Estate taxes?

Other?

 

That's where the real erosion will take place under an RSO presidency.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

If I'm not mistaken, those tax increases are basically just a roll back of the taxcuts to the wealthiest 1% in the last 8 years.

That may be, I don't know how much exactly those changed in that period. Either way, I don't see it as a good idea to roll them back.

 

[mr_genius]

What DOESN'T this show?

 

Corporate taxes?

Investment taxes?

Estate taxes?

Other?

 

That's where the real erosion will take place under an RSO presidency.

 

Excellent point Kap

[HuskyCaucasian]

Talk about MAJORLY trying to raise the expectations:

 

McCain Says Obama Will Get 15 Point Bounce from Convention

This cycle mirrors Bill Clinton's Democratic convention in 1992: A historic 16-point bump. Barack Obama is more similarly situated to Bill Clinton in 1992 than any other candidate in recent history. Bill Clinton was a new candidate on the national scene; he was running in a "change" oriented election cycle and the economy was voters' top issue -- a dynamic he was able to capitalize on. He received a 16-point bump coming out of his convention. Obama is also a "new" candidate in a change-oriented environment. And, like Bill Clinton, he will spend the convention presenting himself as the agent of change who will fix the economy.

 

Obama will ride his VP bump. In addition to Obama taking advantage of the political environment, he will announce his Vice Presidential candidate late this week. This announcement typically gives a candidate a 5-point temporary bump that dissipates. However, Obama's timing allows him to maximize his Vice Presidential bump...

 

We believe Obama will see a significant bump, and believe it is reasonable to expect nearly a 15-point bounce out of a convention in this political environment.

I crunched the numbers:

According to today's Gallup Poll, Obama leads McCain 45-44 with 11 undecided or other.

 

Assuming Obama got all of the undecideds, and 2 from McCain, it should look like Obama 58% - McCain 42%. Unlikely.

 

Since a minimum of 3-5% will likely vote for someone OTHER than Obama and McCain, Obama would need 7 from the undecideds and 4 from McCain. It would then be 56-40.

 

I just dont see a 15 point bounce.

[lostfan]

Hillary's supporters are really starting to piss me off... one of the reasons I can't be a registered Democrat.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Hillary's supporters are really starting to piss me off... one of the reasons I can't be a registered Democrat.

The whole "we wont support Obama because hilliary didnt win" thing?

 

Bill and Hillary were VERY sore losers and it's rubbed off on their supporters. This would have NEVER happened if they would have just bowed out when they were supposed to. This drawn out fight stung hard. It was unneeded drama that only server to inflat their ego and sens of entitlement. And when they didnt win.... Bill throws a temper tantrum that he dosent get to pick his speaking topic at the convention.