2008 General Election Discussion Thread

[Rex Kickass]

I can honestly say I voted for my candidate in 2004.

 

You say the system is broken, but until you stop supporting candidates you don't like, these kinds of candidates will keep perpetuating the system.

[NorthSideSox72]

I can honestly say I voted for my candidate in 2004.

 

You say the system is broken, but until you stop supporting candidates you don't like, these kinds of candidates will keep perpetuating the system.

I don't agree. If people stop voting, and the voting % goes down, you will only get worse candidates because fewer people have a stake in the game.

 

[kapkomet]

I can honestly say I voted for my candidate in 2004.

 

You say the system is broken, but until you stop supporting candidates you don't like, these kinds of candidates will keep perpetuating the system.

When my Congress shoots down any viable third party system with TOTAL bipartisan support to keep themselves in power, it's a little hard to be "supportive" of any of these assclowns. You end up voting for someone who is closer to your ideals but not in full support. I personally can't stand GWB (yes, I do think he gets a raw deal, which is why I defend him more often then not) but I voted for him because he was DEFINITELY (IMO) better then John Kerry. I wish I had a better candidate in 2004 to support. Same in 2000.

 

[bmags]

I can honestly say I voted for my candidate in 2004.

 

You say the system is broken, but until you stop supporting candidates you don't like, these kinds of candidates will keep perpetuating the system.

 

I somewhat disagree Rex. How many % of voting population voted last year? If 95% of our population came out and voted for who they liked best, that would bring a third party into the fold.

 

I don't really care about a third party though. There isn't a moderate third party they are all batsh** crazy and I hate the coalition system of multiple party governments.

[NorthSideSox72]

When my Congress shoots down any viable third party system with TOTAL bipartisan support to keep themselves in power, it's a little hard to be "supportive" of any of these assclowns. You end up voting for someone who is closer to your ideals but not in full support. I personally can't stand GWB (yes, I do think he gets a raw deal, which is why I defend him more often then not) but I voted for him because he was DEFINITELY (IMO) better then John Kerry. I wish I had a better candidate in 2004 to support. Same in 2000.

I realize that you don't feel the same way, but... I personally think that both parties ran better candidates out there in the primaries than they had anytime in my lifetime. Not that that is saying a lot, but, its progress. I therefore think its all the more important to show up at the polls in 2008.

 

And yes, I do think Obama is something different than we've seen. Heck, McCain is old guard, but in some ways, he is also unique compared to many recent candidates.

 

[bmags]

I realize that you don't feel the same way, but... I personally think that both parties ran better candidates out there in the primaries than they had anytime in my lifetime. Not that that is saying a lot, but, its progress. I therefore think its all the more important to show up at the polls in 2008.

 

And yes, I do think Obama is something different than we've seen. Heck, McCain is old guard, but in some ways, he is also unique compared to many recent candidates.

 

great third part to the McCain profile piece in Esquire this month.

[mr_genius]

I somewhat disagree Rex. How many % of voting population voted last year? If 95% of our population came out and voted for who they liked best, that would bring a third party into the fold.

 

I don't really care about a third party though. There isn't a moderate third party they are all batsh** crazy and I hate the coalition system of multiple party governments.

 

no offense, but lot of elected Democrats are bats*** crazy.

[bmags]

no offense, but lot of elected Democrats are bats*** crazy.

 

not compared to the constitutional party's platform.

[mr_genius]

not compared to the constitutional party's platform.

 

i just looked up their platform. sounds AWESOME

 

 

 

 

[southsider2k5]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/lat...-polls-817.html

 

Although Barack Obama remains a slight favorite in this election, his position is more vulnerable than at any point since the primaries concluded, and he no longer appears to have a built-in strength in the electoral college that we had attributed to him before.

 

The reason is a new poll out of Ohio, where Public Policy Polling now shows the race dead-even at 45-45. In a PPP poll conducted in July, Obama had led by 8; that poll had been largely responsible for propping up Obama's Ohio numbers. Our simulation model operates quite literally in shades of color, rather than a simple red:blue duality. However, with this poll figured in, we now figure McCain to be a very slight favorite in Ohio.

 

Furthermore, with Ohio now trailing behind Obama's numbers nationally -- we regard Obama as a 1.0-point favorite in the national popular vote, but McCain an 0.6-point favorite in Ohio -- McCain now rates as slightly more likely to win the electoral college than the popular vote, a reversal of the trend apparent for most of the past couple of months.

 

If there's a silver lining for Obama in this poll, it's that his lost ground has come mostly from Democrats (he performed quite well among independents in this poll) -- a group that he will have a chance to rally next week in Denver.

[southsider2k5]

LET THE DISCREDITING BEGIN!!!

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idU...=22&sp=true

 

McCain takes lead over Obama: poll

Wed Aug 20, 2008 11:16am EDT

 

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

 

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

 

The reversal follows a month of attacks by McCain, who has questioned Obama's experience, criticized his opposition to most new offshore oil drilling and mocked his overseas trip.

 

The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday as Obama wrapped up a weeklong vacation in Hawaii that ceded the political spotlight to McCain, who seized on Russia's invasion of Georgia to emphasize his foreign policy views.

 

"There is no doubt the campaign to discredit Obama is paying off for McCain right now," pollster John Zogby said. "This is a significant ebb for Obama."

 

McCain now has a 9-point edge, 49 percent to 40 percent, over Obama on the critical question of who would be the best manager of the economy -- an issue nearly half of voters said was their top concern in the November 4 presidential election.

 

That margin reversed Obama's 4-point edge last month on the economy over McCain, an Arizona senator and former Vietnam prisoner of war who has admitted a lack of economic expertise and shows far greater interest in foreign and military policy.

 

McCain has been on the offensive against Obama during the last month over energy concerns, with polls showing strong majorities supporting his call for an expansion of offshore oil drilling as gasoline prices hover near $4 a gallon.

 

Obama had opposed new offshore drilling, but said recently he would support a limited expansion as part of a comprehensive energy program.

 

That was one of several recent policy shifts for Obama, as he positions himself for the general election battle. But Zogby said the changes could be taking a toll on Obama's support, particularly among Democrats and self-described liberals.

 

"That hairline difference between nuance and what appears to be flip-flopping is hurting him with liberal voters," Zogby said.

 

Obama's support among Democrats fell 9 percentage points this month to 74 percent, while McCain has the backing of 81 percent of Republicans. Support for Obama, an Illinois senator, fell 12 percentage points among liberals, with 10 percent of liberals still undecided compared to 9 percent of conservatives.

 

OBAMA NEEDS TO WORK ON BASE

 

"Conservatives were supposed to be the bigger problem for McCain," Zogby said. "Obama still has work to do on his base. At this point McCain seems to be doing a better job with his."

 

The dip in support for Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, cut across demographic and ideological lines. He slipped among Catholics, born-again Christians, women, independents and younger voters. He retained the support of more than 90 percent of black voters.

 

"There were no wild swings, there isn't one group that is radically different than last month or even two months ago. It was just a steady decline for Obama across the board," Zogby said.

 

Obama's support among voters between the ages of 18 and 29, which had been one of his strengths, slipped 12 percentage points to 52 percent. McCain, who will turn 72 next week, was winning 40 percent of younger voters.

 

"Those are not the numbers Obama needs to win," Zogby said about Americans under 30. The 47-year-old is counting on a strong turnout among young voters, a key bloc of support during his primary battle with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

 

It made little difference when independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, who are both trying to add their names to state ballots.

 

McCain still held a 5-point edge over Obama, 44 percent to 39 percent, when all four names were included. Barr earned 3 percent and Nader 2 percent.

 

Most national polls have given Obama a narrow lead over McCain throughout the summer. In the Reuters/Zogby poll, Obama had a 5-point lead in June, shortly after he clinched the Democratic nomination, and an 8-point lead on McCain in May.

 

The telephone poll of 1,089 likely voters had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

 

The poll was taken as both candidates head into their nominating conventions and the announcements of their choices of vice presidential picks. The Democratic convention begins on Monday in Denver, with the Republican convention opening the next Monday, September 1, in St. Paul, Minnesota.

 

(Editing by Patricia Wilson and Patricia Zengerle)

[kapkomet]

LET THE DISCREDITING BEGIN!!!

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idU...=22&sp=true

This is why Clinton has entered back into the fold to be VP is because it would shore up that base.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

LET THE DISCREDITING BEGIN!!!

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idU...=22&sp=true

I wont discredit it, but like I say with ALL polls, I need to see a confirmation from other reputable polls before I worry. It could just be an outliner. Today's Gallup has Obama +3. so, take it for what it's worth. It IS close. McCain +5? Not so sure.

[HuskyCaucasian]

The "Post-Convention Bounce"

To the extent history is a guide, Barack Obama and John McCain can both expect to see some increase in voter support after their nominating conventions, an effect observed after nearly all of the 22 national conventions since 1964. The median increase has been 5 percentage points.

 

This "convention bounce" is an important part of the presidential campaign narrative, and is one of the more highly anticipated events for poll watchers. Gallup has data to provide a reasonable estimate of each presidential candidate's convention bounce dating back to 1964. All but two candidates -- George McGovern in 1972 and John Kerry in 2004 -- saw their support among registered voters increase after their parties' conventions.

 

[Balta1701]

LET THE DISCREDITING BEGIN!!!

Fine.

 

Reuters/Zogby.

 

Discrediting finished.

[HuskyCaucasian]

LET THE DISCREDITING BEGIN!!!

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idU...=22&sp=true

Pollster.com: The "Loopy" Zogby Polls

All pollsters, it seems, eventually find themselves with what Andy Kohut once referred to as "loopy" results. His comment was about the Gallup polls in the 2000 election, though in September 2004, Pew experienced such results itself, and of course several polls this campaign season have produced inexplicable or "wrong" numbers, as indicated by the subsequent primary election vote counts.

 

This time, it's Zogby's turn to confuse the masses. His latest Reuters/Zogby poll, based on a sample of 1,089 "likely voters" drawn from listed telephone numbers, conducted Aug. 14-16, 2008, shows McCain over Obama by 46% to 41%.

 

Two days earlier, Zogby reported substantially different results. His online poll (of self-selected people who want to be part of his Internet polling sample) of 3,339 "likely voters," conducted Aug. 12-14, showed Obama with a three-point lead, 43% to 40%.

 

By Zogby's own calculation of the margins of error of each poll, the difference between the two polls in McCain's support (46% in the later telephone poll vs. 40% in the earlier online poll) is statistically significant. The difference in Obama's support (41% vs. 43% respectively) would not be statistically significant. Still, the 8-point difference in the margin of McCain's lead would be significant - a McCain 5-point lead vs. an Obama 3-point lead in the earlier poll.

 

If we believe both polls, the period of Aug. 13-14 must have been a real bummer for Obama and an electoral high for McCain. Whatever it was that caused millions of voters to "change" their minds and gravitate toward the Republican candidate in the two-day period, however, escaped my notice. Perhaps others have been more observant.

[whitesoxfan101]

I don't know how much the poll matters. The relevant point, and one that I don't think anybody would argue, is that McCain has made up a lot of ground on Obama recently, and Obama has some work to do to slow down that momentum. A good convention is a good place to start.

[Balta1701]

I don't know how much the poll matters. The relevant point, and one that I don't think anybody would argue, is that McCain has made up a lot of ground on Obama recently, and Obama has some work to do to slow down that momentum. A good convention is a good place to start.

Zogby does not matter to me at all. They make their money by being the outlier...by being the poll that is a good 5-10 points away from everyone else's poll, so it's BIG BREAKING NEWS DRUDGE REPORT HEADLINE! when they come out, and when there's the occasional time where they get it right because there's some sort of last minute surge on one side.

 

On the other hand, yes, it's clearly been tightening nationwide, but really right now it's anyone's guess how things are going to turn out. McCain is dumping money in to TV ads, which, combined with all the free showings he's getting because his ads are deemed "Controversial" has helped tighten the nationwide gap. But while the Obama campaing isn't dumping money in to TV ads like McCain is just yet, they've also been working like crazy M-Fers on their ground game in swing states. In places that are anywhere close at all they're pressing hard on voter registration and focusing harder on local issues (i.e. the DHL deal in Ohio). They're outgunning McCain like 10 or 20 to 1 on field offices in swing states.

 

No idea which strategy will work, but if the Obama campaign can come in to election day at worst 2 or 3 points behind McCain in national polling, which would be a significant weakening of where they're currently at...then they'll probably win it on ground game alone.

[NorthSideSox72]

Zogby does not matter to me at all. They make their money by being the outlier...by being the poll that is a good 5-10 points away from everyone else's poll, so it's BIG BREAKING NEWS DRUDGE REPORT HEADLINE! when they come out, and when there's the occasional time where they get it right because there's some sort of last minute surge on one side.

 

On the other hand, yes, it's clearly been tightening nationwide, but really right now it's anyone's guess how things are going to turn out. McCain is dumping money in to TV ads, which, combined with all the free showings he's getting because his ads are deemed "Controversial" has helped tighten the nationwide gap. But while the Obama campaing isn't dumping money in to TV ads like McCain is just yet, they've also been working like crazy M-Fers on their ground game in swing states. In places that are anywhere close at all they're pressing hard on voter registration and focusing harder on local issues (i.e. the DHL deal in Ohio). They're outgunning McCain like 10 or 20 to 1 on field offices in swing states.

 

No idea which strategy will work, but if the Obama campaign can come in to election day at worst 2 or 3 points behind McCain in national polling, which would be a significant weakening of where they're currently at...then they'll probably win it on ground game alone.

I think there are two X-factors involved in this election, which are not reflected in the polls (particularly the national ones, which are pretty meaningless). One is what you highlighted - ground game, specifically in swing states. This will result in Obama doing better in those states than the current polls reflect.

 

But there is a second one, and that works in McCain's favor - fear. Fear of the unknown, to be blunt. I think there are people on the fence, who are OK with Obama right now, but when it comes time to pull the lever, they'll go with what is familiar. McCain is more experienced, he's not an outsider, and frankly, he's white. Some people aren't choosing candidates based on issues or party or leadership qualities - they are picking based on their narrow and pop culture experiences. Those people are more likely to believe the ridiculous OBAMA IS MUSLIM or OBAMA IS JUST THE BLACK GUY stuff, just enough to make them hesitate in that booth. So there will be a small vote percentage that goes to McCain at the last second, when they are in the privacy of that booth.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

But there is a second one, and that works in McCain's favor - fear. Fear of the unknown, to be blunt. I think there are people on the fence, who are OK with Obama right now, but when it comes time to pull the lever, they'll go with what is familiar.

I think that's exactly right. I mentioned a while back in one of my weekly poll updates that in MANY of the polls where the gap closed, it wasnt because obama slipped, it was because the undecideds went to McCain. So, where Obama might have lead 48-21, It's now, say, 48-46. Obama hasnt "sunk", McCain just grabbed the undecideds.

 

I argue that that is GOOD for Obama. That means his base is strong and he needs to win the undecideds.

[mr_genius]

Some people aren't choosing candidates based on issues or party or leadership qualities - they are picking based on their narrow and pop culture experiences. Those people are more likely to believe the ridiculous OBAMA IS MUSLIM or OBAMA IS JUST THE BLACK GUY stuff, just enough to make them hesitate in that booth. So there will be a small vote percentage that goes to McCain at the last second, when they are in the privacy of that booth.

 

Disagree. There will be more people voting FOR Obama because of his celebrity/pop culture status than we be voting against him because he is black. McCain knows that the celebrity thing will help Obama, so that is why he put those ads out with paris hilton in them .

 

What Obama needs to do is just be the Obama that won the Dem primary. He was more aggressive on issues and ideas. Now he is in danger of becoming the 'if you don't vote for me you are a racist' candidate. I really think he can lock this up if he goes with his instincts and goes back to the Barack Obama campaign that beat the Clinton machine. This 'McSame' strategy is a bad one. He needs to hammer home his ambitions which will win over the voters.

Edited August 20, 2008 by mr_genius

[HuskyCaucasian]

This 'McSame' strategy is a bad one. He needs to hammer home his ambitions which will win over the voters.

The problem is that it's damn near impossible to get heard when your opponent runs almost nothing but negative ads and uses the media like fiddle. Obama WANTS to stay positive and issue oriented, but the MSM has no interest in that. They'd rather say "oh, hey, look at this negative ad. How WRONG! Let's play it again."

 

Obama released 2 VERY good and positive ads during the olympics. Did they get near the same press as the "Celeb" ads? not even close.

 

Until Obama can figure out a way to have the MSM listen to his positive message more than McCain's negative message, he'll have to keep trying to link McCain to

, Abramoff,

, and their newest line: McCain's a trigger happy a hot head. Edited August 20, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[Balta1701]

What Obama needs to do is just be the Obama that won the Dem primary. He was more aggressive on issues and ideas. Now he is in danger of becoming the 'if you don't vote for me you are a racist' candidate. I really think he can lock this up if he goes with his instincts and goes back to the Barack Obama campaign that beat the Clinton machine. This 'McSame' strategy is a bad one. He needs to hammer home his ambitions which will win over the voters.

Here is my question in response though...the media absolutely hate covering policy. They despise it. You can have the greatest set of policies in the world, and all the other candidate has to do is call it "Fuzzy Math" and the media will pretend there's some controversy over how things add up. Meanwhile, the McCain campaign keeps up their hard, fairly close-to-crossing-the-line type ads, and keeps getting the media focused on that. Basically throwing them bait. Do you think a policy driven campaign can beat that, without feeding the media something to go after McCain on?

 

Hell, the blogs I read are just dying because they don't have a message like that coming down. Everyone up and down the line in the Republican party knows the message to fire out on Obama, he's an elitist, uppity, unprepared candidate who's only there because he's a celebrity. (And fear the wrath of blackazoid while you're at it!). The Dems don't feel like they have that and they don't. They haven't responded to McCain's "elitist" stuff by pointing out that McCain's the one with 10 mansions across the country, they haven't responded to the "unpatriotic" "he wants to lose the war to win the election" stuff by going after McCain's judgement or actions at all, there's just nothing coherent being pushed on McCain.

[kapkomet]

The problem is that it's damn near impossible to get heard when your opponent runs almost nothing but negative ads and uses the media like fiddle. Obama WANTS to stay positive and issue oriented, but the MSM has no interest in that. They'd rather say "oh, hey, look at this negative ad. How WRONG! Let's play it again."

 

Obama released 2 VERY good and positive ads during the olympics. Did they get near the same press as the "Celeb" ads? not even close.

 

Until Obama can figure out a way to have the MSM listen to his positive message more than McCain's negative message, he'll have to keep trying to link McCain to Bush, Abramoff, lobbyists, and their newest line: he's a hot head.

And that's where you're wrong. The media is trying to discredit McCain, talking about how he went "back on his pledge, OMG!!!" and it backfired, hardcore. Good. And besides that, it's not THAT negative, but it is to Obamatrons, because Clinton wouldn't go after him the same way. McCain had a VERY important point about the RSO point of view. It hit home. And it puts the differences between the two on an "experience" level crystal clear.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

by going after McCain's judgement or actions at all, there's just nothing coherent being pushed on McCain.

you cant go there. the MOMENT you attack McCain's foreign policy, they run under the "he was a POW" umbrella and use that to defend him. As if being a POW makes you more experienced.

 

I have said for a while that my biggest fear about McCain is that he still caries a POW grudge. He was a POW for 5+ years in a war we lost. He's DETERMINED to never ever lose another war. No mater what that cost. War with Russia? bring it on!! War with Iran? SURE! Institute the drafT? ABSOLUTELY!

Edited August 20, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000