2008 General Election Discussion Thread

[NorthSideSox72]

Disagree. There will be more people voting FOR Obama because of his celebrity/pop culture status than we be voting against him because he is black. McCain knows that the celebrity thing will help Obama, so that is why he put those ads out with paris hilton in them .

 

I think you misunderstood what I was saying. You are right, there are plenty of people who like Obama for those celebrity bits. What I am saying is, some of those same weak-minded folks are not being truthful when they get a poll call. Some of them will flip to McCain based on those irrational fears or biases I mentioned. The same will not be true of McCain voters suddenly deciding they want a celebrity, IMO.

 

I wasn't making a statement about reasons why people are CURRENTLY supporting or not supporting a candidate. I am talking about day-of-game reactions from people, not currently reflected in the polls.

 

What Obama needs to do is just be the Obama that won the Dem primary. He was more aggressive on issues and ideas. Now he is in danger of becoming the 'if you don't vote for me you are a racist' candidate. I really think he can lock this up if he goes with his instincts and goes back to the Barack Obama campaign that beat the Clinton machine. This 'McSame' strategy is a bad one. He needs to hammer home his ambitions which will win over the voters.

 

I partially agree here, in that his best move is to keep doing what he was doing. But I disagree in that I think he IS still doing that, for the most part.

 

[lostfan]

The problem is that it's damn near impossible to get heard when your opponent runs almost nothing but negative ads and uses the media like fiddle. Obama WANTS to stay positive and issue oriented, but the MSM has no interest in that. They'd rather say "oh, hey, look at this negative ad. How WRONG! Let's play it again."

 

Obama released 2 VERY good and positive ads during the olympics. Did they get near the same press as the "Celeb" ads? not even close.

 

Until Obama can figure out a way to have the MSM listen to his positive message more than McCain's negative message, he'll have to keep trying to link McCain to

, Abramoff,

, and their newest line: McCain's a trigger happy a hot head.

I thought Obama's Olympic ads were pretty flat and dull, but I'd rather see that than another dumbass attack ad. After a while that makes me just not want to pay attention anymore.

[mr_genius]

The problem is that it's damn near impossible to get heard when your opponent runs almost nothing but negative ads and uses the media like fiddle. Obama WANTS to stay positive and issue oriented, but the MSM has no interest in that. They'd rather say "oh, hey, look at this negative ad. How WRONG! Let's play it again."

 

Obama released 2 VERY good and positive ads during the olympics. Did they get near the same press as the "Celeb" ads? not even close.

 

Until Obama can figure out a way to have the MSM listen to his positive message more than McCain's negative message, he'll have to keep trying to link McCain to Bush, Abramoff, lobbyists, and their newest line: he's a hot head.

 

Fist off, the MSM is an advantage for Obama. He needs to use every bit of this advantage. Not recognizing this advantage and taking advantage of it would be an epic mistake. If the thought process comes in that the MSM is 'unfair' to Obama, he is pretty much done for and honestly shouldn't be president because it shows that he has no idea what is going on around him. Currently, the coverage of Obama and a positive message about him dwarfs anything that McCain can possibly do with the media.

 

The Clinton's ran a very negative campaign against Obama and he took the high road and stayed on message and won. Not only did he win, but he was winning over mass indipedent voters. A negative campaign can be beat, and he knows this. McCain isn't going to be anywhere near as rough as the Clinton's. The Obama camp is getting way too sensitive, they can't let McCain joke ads throw them off track.

 

 

[lostfan]

Fist off, the MSM is an advantage for Obama. He needs to use every bit of this advantage. Not recognizing this advantage and taking advantage of it would be an epic mistake. If the thought process comes in that the MSM is 'unfair' to Obama, he is pretty much done for and honestly shouldn't be president because it shows that he has no idea what is going on around him. Currently, the coverage of Obama and a positive message about him dwarfs anything that McCain can possibly do with the media.

 

The Clinton's ran a very negative campaign against Obama and he took the high road and stayed on message and won. Not only did he win, but he was winning over mass indipedent voters. A negative campaign can be beat, and he knows this. McCain isn't going to be anywhere near as rough as the Clinton's. The Obama camp is getting way too sensitive, they can't let McCain joke ads throw them off track.

Obama did get a little dirty towards the end, but only after Hillary's attack ads started causing him to dip in the polls. He hasn't been negative yet against McCain, but I wish he would stop paying McCain so much attention and whining. Even if his beefs are legitimate, him bringing that up is not seen that way, it's just more political noise.

[mr_genius]

I think you misunderstood what I was saying. You are right, there are plenty of people who like Obama for those celebrity bits. What I am saying is, some of those same weak-minded folks are not being truthful when they get a poll call. Some of them will flip to McCain based on those irrational fears or biases I mentioned. The same will not be true of McCain voters suddenly deciding they want a celebrity, IMO.

 

I wasn't making a statement about reasons why people are CURRENTLY supporting or not supporting a candidate. I am talking about day-of-game reactions from people, not currently reflected in the polls.

 

Oh I see what you are getting at. Yea, I would agree with that assessment.

[Balta1701]

Obama did get a little dirty towards the end, but only after Hillary's attack ads started causing him to dip in the polls. He hasn't been negative yet against McCain, but I wish he would stop paying McCain so much attention and whining. Even if his beefs are legitimate, him bringing that up is not seen that way, it's just more political noise.

Part of the problem though was that against Hillary, the campaign put together a strategy where they didn't need to go negative at all. They won it by winning Iowa, outworking Hillary for every delegate they could steal on Super Tuesday, and then putting her away with strong showings in the late Feb. states where she hadn't planned to compete at all. He never had to go negative against her that much to win, he just had to endure her barrage and not totally foul anything up before PA and NC hit.

 

So far, they're using the same basic playbook here...outworking McCain while he tries to keep swinging a club. They haven't hit him all that hard yet except on the couple of local issues (Ralph Reed in GA, the DHL thing in Ohio). They may not want to go harder after him than that...up to this point in the Campaign, they've never had to.

[bmags]

Part of the problem though was that against Hillary, the campaign put together a strategy where they didn't need to go negative at all. They won it by winning Iowa, outworking Hillary for every delegate they could steal on Super Tuesday, and then putting her away with strong showings in the late Feb. states where she hadn't planned to compete at all. He never had to go negative against her that much to win, he just had to endure her barrage and not totally foul anything up before PA and NC hit.

 

So far, they're using the same basic playbook here...outworking McCain while he tries to keep swinging a club. They haven't hit him all that hard yet except on the couple of local issues (Ralph Reed in GA, the DHL thing in Ohio). They may not want to go harder after him than that...up to this point in the Campaign, they've never had to.

 

Obama seems more invisible now while they set up the ground offices. He is being massively outspent in TV ads by McCain and doesn't have the luxury of having his talking points spoken by the TV media. After the convention the advertisement saturation will begin.

[lostfan]

Part of the problem though was that against Hillary, the campaign put together a strategy where they didn't need to go negative at all. They won it by winning Iowa, outworking Hillary for every delegate they could steal on Super Tuesday, and then putting her away with strong showings in the late Feb. states where she hadn't planned to compete at all. He never had to go negative against her that much to win, he just had to endure her barrage and not totally foul anything up before PA and NC hit.

 

So far, they're using the same basic playbook here...outworking McCain while he tries to keep swinging a club. They haven't hit him all that hard yet except on the couple of local issues (Ralph Reed in GA, the DHL thing in Ohio). They may not want to go harder after him than that...up to this point in the Campaign, they've never had to.

More or less I agree, Hillary's popular vote argument was so dumb because aside from the blatantly obvious fact that the nomination wasn't decided by popular vote, she simply had a poor strategy designed for a single knockout blow on Super Tuesday which ended up getting blunted, and ran out of steam by Texas and Ohio (I knew it was over then, she simply didn't get enough delegates). Had she been more focused on the delegates like she should've been (among several other things that derailed her like her husband failing to STFU when he needed to), she probably is the nominee right now. Obama basically won with the rulebook and the only thing that mattered was the end result. If he keeps to that and focuses on electoral votes, which I'm sure Axelrod is, he wins. If he allows himself to become distracted, he fails.

[mr_genius]

Obama did get a little dirty towards the end, but only after Hillary's attack ads started causing him to dip in the polls. He hasn't been negative yet against McCain, but I wish he would stop paying McCain so much attention and whining. Even if his beefs are legitimate, him bringing that up is not seen that way, it's just more political noise.

 

There is way too much paranoia of "WE WILL NOT BE SWIFTBOATED!" and basically they overreact and look like idiots. The paris hilton ad was originally mocked by republicans as they thought it was a waste of ad space and lame joke ad. Then the Obama campaign completely overreacts and gives the ad merit screaming "SWIFT BOAT! SWIFT BOAT!" as the red sirens go off in Democrat land; they give the ad life, as it now appears that if the Democrats are going this crazy over it the ad must have some sort of importance.

 

basically what happened John McCain threw a banana peel on the ground and Obama's entire staff tripped on it stumbling into him; causing a loss of momentum.

Edited August 20, 2008 by mr_genius

[mr_genius]

Obama seems more invisible now while they set up the ground offices. He is being massively outspent in TV ads by McCain and doesn't have the luxury of having his talking points spoken by the TV media. After the convention the advertisement saturation will begin.

 

wow, the TV Media isn't covering his talking points? if you guys think the MSM is pro-McCain and parroting his talking points for free; you really are going to piss this election away. oh well.

 

so much whining even though he is getting great coverage. kind of like the rich kid on MTV who is crying because she got a red Lamborghini for her 16th birthday but wanted 2 of them; one read and one blue.

Edited August 20, 2008 by mr_genius

[lostfan]

wow, the TV Media isn't covering his talking points? if you guys think the MSM is pro-McCain and parroting his talking points for free; you really are going to piss this election away. oh well.

 

so much whining even though he is getting great coverage. kind of like the rich kid on MTV who is crying because she got a red Lamborghini for her 16th birthday but wanted 2 of them; one read and one blue.

I don't know if you've been watching the Keith Olbermann channel or something but not all of McCain's press is bad press, he gets good press, a lot of it actually, and he is getting his message out there. What the Obama camp does not seem to have learned is that they still do control the media narrative to some extent, and that by them responding or overreacting to everything, like you were saying earlier, they are prolonging the life of that story, and getting themselves more negative exposure. If they just let it die off, McCain's strategy here loses effectiveness. They don't need to go into an all-out blitz here, they can just play a soft zone for now. But they're blitzing and giving up big plays.

[Balta1701]

I don't know if you've been watching the Keith Olbermann channel or something but not all of McCain's press is bad press, he gets good press, a lot of it actually, and he is getting his message out there. What the Obama camp does not seem to have learned is that they still do control the media narrative to some extent, and that by them responding or overreacting to everything, like you were saying earlier, they are prolonging the life of that story, and getting themselves more negative exposure. If they just let it die off, McCain's strategy here loses effectiveness. They don't need to go into an all-out blitz here, they can just play a soft zone for now. But they're blitzing and giving up big plays.

Here's one from the post-modernism, break your brain, drive you crazy line of thought. I wonder if that's not exactly what the Obama campaign wants to have happen? Have McCain be the one who goes out negative first, have people start realizing McCain's running a much more negative campaign, have him get all of his attacks (and not coincidentally, his money) out of the way before even the conventions hit, so that by the time the conventions are over, all of McCain's one-liners and ads have been used up. Some have wondered whether they were trying the rope-a-dope here.

[lostfan]

McCain doesn't seem to be all that cash-strapped, at least not yet.

[Balta1701]

McCain doesn't seem to be all that cash-strapped, at least not yet.

That's because he can't be. In the next 2 weeks, he has to spend every dollar he's raised that is not general election money, and after that he's totally blocked in by the state by state spending limits.

[lostfan]

That's because he can't be. In the next 2 weeks, he has to spend every dollar he's raised that is not general election money, and after that he's totally blocked in by the state by state spending limits.

What does that mean for Obama?

[Balta1701]

What does that mean for Obama?

Nothing. Obama opted out of the public financing system, so he's not bound by those spending limits. He just has to raise an additional $80 million beyond what the McCain campaign raises to make up for the money McCain gets from the government.

[HuskyCaucasian]

LET THE DISCREDITING BEGIN!!!

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idU...=22&sp=true

By the way, two polls from far more reputable sources:

NBC/WSJ: Obama 45, McCain 42

CBS/NYT: Obama 45, McCain 42

 

CBS showed that Obama's number did not change, but McCain went up.

NBC showed a 2 point Obama drop and a one point gain by McCain.

Edited August 21, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[lostfan]

Nothing. Obama opted out of the public financing system, so he's not bound by those spending limits. He just has to raise an additional $80 million beyond what the McCain campaign raises to make up for the money McCain gets from the government.

Ah, I see. So Obama's spending advantage hasn't even kicked in yet.

[Balta1701]

Ah, I see. So Obama's spending advantage hasn't even kicked in yet.

Nope. You can spend primary money up through the final day of your convention. The General campaign and its associated limits for McCain happen after that.

 

Interestingly, this was actually a big deal in 2004, because Kerry and Bush both took the public money, but the Dem convention was a month before the RNC, so Kerry had to take the same amount of money and spread it out over an extra month.

[kapkomet]

you cant go there. the MOMENT you attack McCain's foreign policy, they run under the "he was a POW" umbrella and use that to defend him. As if being a POW makes you more experienced.

 

I have said for a while that my biggest fear about McCain is that he still caries a POW grudge. He was a POW for 5+ years in a war we lost. He's DETERMINED to never ever lose another war. No mater what that cost. War with Russia? bring it on!! War with Iran? SURE! Institute the drafT? ABSOLUTELY!

He's not that stupid.

[Balta1701]

He's not that stupid.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Ah, I see. So Obama's spending advantage hasn't even kicked in yet.

Correct. According to campaign numbers, at the end of July, John McCain had $21 million in the bank. Barack Obama had $66 million.

 

Both candidates will collect money throughout August, but McCain must use his $21 million + August money by the end of the Rep. Convention. Obama on the other hand, can take his $66 million + August and move it to the general election. He'll get probably another $40-50 million this month, plus $50+ million in Sep and Oct.

 

So, starting Sep 1, John McCain will have his public financing ($84 million) to spend. Obama will have a MINIMUM of $206 million minus this months expenditures.

 

Obama can blanket the country with positive ads in states he "shouldnt" win, while McCain will be forced to play a negative defense in states like Alaska, North Carolina, the Dakotas, and hell even Texas.

 

PS: Got the July numbers here.

 

EDIT: Actually i missed where it said "or donate the balance to the Republican National Committee". SO, In theory, John McCain could donate all his money to the RNC and run a campaign by proxy through the RNC. But they may need that money to hold seats on the hill.

Edited August 21, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[HuskyCaucasian]

He's not that stupid.

See above. he said it today. He wouldt against a draft to fight the war on terror. If we need a draft to fight terror, we arent in Iraq and Afghanistan. We;ll be in Russia, Iran, Syria, and maybe Pakistan.

[mr_genius]

the RNC has over 100 million cash on hand. the GOP national committee can raise as much as they want and run all the ads they want. McCain personally needs to use the public financing. the Republicans have plenty of cash for the election.

 

 

[lostfan]

If we were to have another war, we absolutely would need to re-institute the draft. There really is no way around it.