2008 General Election Discussion Thread

[Cknolls]

Curious...for all the McCain supporters who cited Obama's big spending as a concern, do you feel better now that McCain is proposing a $300 billion buyout of bad mortgages?

 

 

Is it part of the 700 billion?

Edited October 9, 2008 by Cknolls

[lostfan]

Is it part of the 700 billion?

I think it is, but I'm not sure. Pretty good question.

[Cknolls]

There is no basis for it.

 

 

So the press will not mention this if McCain were to win, right?

 

 

[bmags]

So the press will not mention this if McCain were to win, right?

 

Alright, so if, in this election states that Obama is up +6 or however much he ends up losing, and the internals for, say, white males showed him with maybe 45% but he only carried 35% of them, I will give credence to this theory. But as of right now I'm sure it's just interesting theory that people want to latch onto to seem smart.

[StrangeSox]

So the press will not mention this if McCain were to win, right?

 

The press loves to mention plenty of stupid things. I'm sure we'll hear about it before and after the election, regardless of who wins.

 

Maybe if Obama turnout falls inline with polling, we'll never have to hear about it again.

[Cknolls]

Nothing to see here just registering people to vote. We want record turnout this year.

 

http://www.babalublog.com/archives/009940.html

[HuskyCaucasian]

I gotta say, I'm lovin the hypocrisy these days. And it's coming from BOTH sides. Obama brings up Keating 5 and it's a "smear job" according the McCain Campaign. McCain brings up Ayres and it's a "questioning of Obama's judgement".

 

Please. Both sides. Cut it out!

[NorthSideSox72]

I gotta say, I'm lovin the hypocrisy these days. And it's coming from BOTH sides. Obama brings up Keating 5 and it's a "smear job" according the McCain Campaign. McCain brings up Ayres and it's a "questioning of Obama's judgement".

 

Please. Both sides. Cut it out!

Do you own a mirror?

 

[EvilMonkey]

I gotta say, I'm lovin the hypocrisy these days. And it's coming from BOTH sides. Obama brings up Keating 5 and it's a "smear job" according the McCain Campaign. McCain brings up Ayres and it's a "questioning of Obama's judgement".

 

Please. Both sides. Cut it out!

Sayith the pot.

[Heads22]

Obama up 8 in West Virginia.

 

My oh my.

[bmags]

Obama up 8 in West Virginia.

 

My oh my.

 

same pollers saying he's only up 1 in Minnesota, I think they are just piss poor pollers.

[lostfan]

Yeah, no way does Obama win WV.

[DukeNukeEm]

same pollers saying he's only up 1 in Minnesota, I think they are just piss poor pollers.

ARG sucks, but it is kind of interesting that Obama put up a lead like that. It says a LOT about McCain's chances in Pennsylvania (which I think are damn near 0).

Edited October 9, 2008 by DukeNukeEm

[bmags]

You think Joe McCain will call West Virginia a bunch of commies now?

[BigSqwert]

From 538.com:

Why You Don't Bluff

 

There's been some discussion about whether John McCain's announcement last week that he was pulling out of Michigan was some kind of stunt. Well, Rasmussen has the first polling out of the state since that announcement, and it gives Barack Obama a 16 point lead. This is a state that, as recently as a month ago, looked like it might be the most important swing state in the nation.

 

Voters really, really don't like it when you blow off their state. That's why Hillary Clinton romped to such huge margins in West Virginia and Kentucky in the Democratic primaries, where Obama essentially refused to campaign. It's why Obama won by more than expected in Wisconsin and South Carolina, which Clinton pulled out of early. It's why Rudy Giuliani's decision to ignore every state that didn't begin with an 'F', end with an 'a', and have 'lorid' in the middle was a catastrophic failure.

 

So even if McCain were to want to re-engage Michigan now, he'd be facing a much steeper hill to climb. In Rasmussen's internals, independents have gone from favoring McCain by 12 points on September 21 to favoring Obama by 11 now. Nor is McCain getting any benefit of the doubt from Democrats, who now prefer Obama 95-3. If you act like you don't care about somebody's vote, you aren't going to get it.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

From 538.com:

This reminds me... I am actually, amazingly, a little bit proud of our country's political take at the moment. Why? On the surface, because of the fact that Obama has taken a much bigger lead in the past few weeks. But, its not the fact that I think Obama is a better candidate. I'm proud of the fact that the nation, specifically the independents, are penalizing the dirtier campaign for that reason. This shift lately has pretty much exactly paralleled the change in tone of the McCain campaign, from mildly negative and sniping (which is normal, and Obama does it too), to just outright nasty and Unpresidential.

 

The people are getting this one right. Those silly strings on CNN under the debate showed it too. Americans are tired of the personal attacks and overly adversarial tone, and that has been much louder from the McCain camp lately.

 

So kudos to you, independent voters. You are sending the right message.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Obama up 8 in West Virginia.

 

My oh my.

It's ARG. Throw it out.

[BigSqwert]

Town hall whiplash

 

McCain's rough "town hall" debate just got a bit worse, as one questioner writes about the experience on his Facebook page:

How did I feel about

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tating

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of my

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elf a

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cience from Tenne

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ee

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tate,

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eep my

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elf up to date with current affair

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ter degree in Legal

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tudie

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from

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outhern Illinoi

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Univer

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ity, a few year

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in law

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chool, and I am currently pur

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uing a Ma

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ter in Public Admini

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tration from the Univer

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ity of Memphi

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. In defen

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e of the

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enator from Arizona I would

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ay he i

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an older guy, and may have made an undere

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timation of my age. Hone

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t mi

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ta

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However, it could be becau

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omewhat conde

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cending regardle

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of my age to ma

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e an a

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umption regarding whether I wa

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nowledgeable about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

[HuskyCaucasian]

same pollers saying he's only up 1 in Minnesota, I think they are just piss poor pollers.

well see, now I am very conflicted. I have said on the record several times I really Like SurveyUSA. They have McCain +1 in MN, and now ARG (who I completely distrust) has Obama +1. Nearly Identical results. One from a pollster I trust and one from one I dont. All other polls have Obama t least +7.

[Texsox]

With Obama, I distrust the polls the most. I believe we will see the greatest error of our recent Presidential elections.

[HuskyCaucasian]

It's ARG. Throw it out.

Ok, let me re-think this out for a moment. On Sept 23, CNN had McCain only +4. Remember, WV is boarded by Ohio, PA, and Virginia.

 

Since Sep 23 (Via RCP):

PA: Obama +2.5 to Obama +13.8 (11.3 point swing)

OH: McCain +1.6 to Obama +3.9 (5.5 point swing)

VA: McCain +0.4 to Obama +5.1 (5.5 point swing)

 

So, +8 might be much, but COMPLETELY plausible.

Edited October 9, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[NorthSideSox72]

With Obama, I distrust the polls the most. I believe we will see the greatest error of our recent Presidential elections.

As I've said before, depending on the state, expect to see McCain do as much as 5% better than even the most accurate polls-of-polls. The fear factor will play.

 

But, with Obama taking such gigantic leads, and Palin taking a small bit of that fear factor the other way, it may not matter anymore.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Obama's MASSIVE TV Airtime Buy:

Barack Obama has purchased a half-hour of airtime on CBS, sources confirm.

 

The Obama campaign will air a half-hour primetime special on Wednesday, Oct. 29, at 8 p.m.

 

Sources say the Obama camp is also in talks with NBC and Fox. NBC is said to be very near a deal. With Fox, the matter is likely to remain uncertain as the time period could conflict with Game 6 of the World Series.

 

A CBS spokesperson declined comment. The buy will push comedy "The New Adventures of Old Christine" to 8:30 p.m. and pre-empt "Gary Unmarried." The buy is being placed by Washington-based ad firm GMMB.

 

The direct purchase of such a large block of national airtime right before an election used to be more commonplace before campaigns began to focus their end game strategies exclusively on battleground states. Such a move is not without precedent in modern presidential politics, however -- Ross Perot did a similar purchase in 1992.

 

I am going to bet this is a "lay out the details" show. You cant get very detailed on the stump or in debates. But with 30 minutes of just you talking, you can lay out VERY specific details.

Edited October 9, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[EvilMonkey]

Since AHB seems to drool over polls, here is one for you.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111049/Obamas-R...Plus-Minus.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- While 6% of voters say they are less likely to vote for Barack Obama because of his race, 9% say they are more likely to vote for him, making the impact of his race a neutral to slightly positive factor when all voters' self-reported attitudes are taken into account.

[NorthSideSox72]

Since AHB seems to drool over polls, here is one for you.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111049/Obamas-R...Plus-Minus.aspx

This falls in the same category as my predictions of a 5% bump for McCain over the polls. Some people are more bigoted than they admit to some pollster. I'm guessing that 6% should be at least doubled.