2008 General Election Discussion Thread

[Balta1701]

The arrogance. if anything, will be the downfall. You can never assume that.

While AHB may be showing some arrogance...I've seen virtually no signs from the campaign that they're taking anything for granted. They set on their plan for how they were going to build up to the election and they've stuck to it.

[HuskyCaucasian]

While AHB may be showing some arrogance...I've seen virtually no signs from the campaign that they're taking anything for granted. They set on their plan for how they were going to build up to the election and they've stuck to it.

I am VERY confident as a supporter. As a campaign, you work your butt off in every possible state until Nov 4th.

[Soxbadger]

I dunno maybe they have a point and this is going to be a "trap" election. You know the Democrats are going to over look this one because they are going to be focusing to much on the next one...

 

Oh wait this isnt a sport and this is like the Super Bowl for Democrats.

 

My guess is that if victory seems imminent you are going to see more Democrats come out of the woodwork so that they can all tell the great tale of"How I voted for the first black President."

 

At least thats my opinion.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Just keep your eyes open. McCain will beat the polls by a significant number of points.

 

Obama will still probably win, IMO. But its not in the bag yet.

 

[bmags]

The fact that Obama is making such a play for Omaha, NE shows you they aren't overlooking anything.

[BigSqwert]

I just don't see what the McCain camp has done to close the gap in the polls.

 

- He's already pulled out of Michigan and is being being outspent by wide margins in other battleground states.

- Both he and Palin are visiting states that typically vote Republican.

- Independents are shifting towards Obama.

- He is polling poorly on the economy.

- His ads are 100% negative.

- It's a "change" election.

 

I guess I'm struggling to see where all of a sudden everything completely turns around for him.

[DukeNukeEm]

Money and effort is much better spent on Congress now.

 

Shakowsky should win reelection in IL-10, but I'd really like for Kirk to get his ass kicked in IL-9 by Seals.

[Balta1701]

Link

The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported recently on disproportionate early voting among African-Americans. Georgia doesn't appear to be in play in the presidential election, but it tracks early votes contemporaneously (and online), so it may be a useful bellwether for what's happening elsewhere.

 

If it is, the news continues to be extremely good for Obama. Early vote totals have now reached 499,582 -- more than 75,000 more than were cast early in all of 2004, according to Matt Carrothers, a spokesman for the Secretary of State. (The state is also newly encouraging early voting this year, so that's a major factor in the overall increase.)

 

Most striking: The ratio of African-American voters remains extremely high. 37% of the early votes were cast by black voters, who make up just 29% of the state's electorate.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Link

oh boy, I am going to delve into math in a moment, but I need to think it out a bit. But for those who want to see 2004's raw numbers, here is voter turn out in GA:

3,301,875 votes

Demographic: 70% White, 25% African-American, 4% Latino, 1% Asian, 1% Other

African-American: 12% Bush, 88% Kerry

White: 76% Bush, 23% Kerry

 

I am going to try an maybe extrapolate this out for 2008, but i"ll need some time and it'll probably be really bad math.

[NorthSideSox72]

I normally don't like posting national polls, because they miss the point. But they can sometimes show a few interesting trends. And once in a while, a poll might be so interesting that I just can't pass it up.

 

CBS: Obama +14

 

Among independents, where McCain had a slight lead last week, Obama now leads by 18 points.

 

ETA: The money graf:

 

McCain's campaign strategy may be hurting hurt him: Twenty-one percent of voters say their opinion of the Republican has changed for the worse in the last few weeks. The top two reasons cited for the change of heart are McCain's attacks on Obama and his choice of Sarah Palin as running mate.

[Heads22]

Just keep your eyes open. McCain will beat the polls by a significant number of points.

 

Obama will still probably win, IMO. But its not in the bag yet.

 

Well, his path is a lot easier. He'll win all the Kerry states. Add in Iowa, and he's up to 259. 10(+1) EV gets him the presidency. There's also no reason to think he won't win NM, which gets him up to 264.

 

That means he needs to win NV or WV to get to 269, or any one of CO, FL, MO, IN, OH, VA, NC.

 

It's gonna take a real hit to not pick one of those up.

 

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

oh hell, I'll let 538 do the math for me:

Here are the numbers. In November 2004, black voters represented 27.4 percent of Georgia's active registered voter pool. As of October 1st, that figure has increased to 29.0 percent.

 

Now, that might not seem like all that big a difference. But suppose that the black vote is split 95/5 between Obama and McCain, and the nonblack vote is split 30/70. (Obama probably will not win 30 percent of the white vote. But since Georgia also contains material numbers of Hispanic and Asian voters, winning 30 percent of the nonblack vote is probably reasonable).

 

In 2004, also according to statistics from the Georgia Secretary of State, black voters made up 25.4 percent of election day turnout (this means that they participated at slightly lower rates than white voters). Applying those 95/5 and 30/70 voter splits to the 25.4 percent figure would work out to a 7.0-point win for John McCain, about where polls seem to have Georgia now.

 

Now suppose that black and nonblack voters each turn out at the same rates as they did in 2004, but that we account for the increase in black registration. According to our math, John McCain's 7.0-point lead is now cut to 4.9 points.

 

But that is probably too conservative an assumption. Newly-registered voters -- and nearly half of Georgia's newly-registered voters are black -- turn out at higher rates than previously registered voters. In addition, one would assume that the opportunity to vote for the first African-American nominee might be just a little bit of a motivating factor for black voters. Suppose that African-Americans represent 29.0 percent of Georgia's turnout, matching their share of active registrations. Using the splits we described above, McCain's lead is now cut to 2.3 points.

 

Even this, however, may be too conservative. For one thing, the registration window in Georgia is not yet over ... it concludes today. The statistics I cited above only reflected registrations through September 30. There is typically a surge of registrations in the final few days before the deadline. In 2004, Georgia's active voter rolls increased by about 150,000 persons in the first four days of October, before the registration deadline closed. That was more than they'd increased in the entire month of September.

 

So suppose that by tonight, black voters have increased to 30 percent of Georgia's registered voter pool. Plugging that 30 percent number in, McCain's advantage is a mere 1 point.

Edited October 15, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[bmags]

I knew I wasn't crazy for watching Georgia.

[HuskyCaucasian]

I knew I wasn't crazy for watching Georgia.

I think it's a real long shot, but worth the effort. I thought I heard a while back that Obama moved some people out of GA and into NC and VA. So, I think they think they cant win it either. But they wont give up the ground game, especially with McCain in a free-fall.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Now this is turning an issue on its head:

If he were elected President, do you think (candidate) would raise taxes on people like yourself, or wouldn't he do that?

Obama: Would 46%, Would Not 41%

McCain: Would 51%, Would Not 38%

[bmags]

I think it's a real long shot, but worth the effort. I thought I heard a while back that Obama moved some people out of GA and into NC and VA. So, I think they think they cant win it either. But they wont give up the ground game, especially with McCain in a free-fall.

 

Well, back when Gpratt used to post about how Obama couldn't win because the south was solid red and Obama couldn't win Ohio and Fla.

 

My theory, was that due to Obama opening offices in every state, McCain likely would not win in the solid red states by as much as Bush won them. It is the reason why I thought Obama would win the popular even if he lost the electoral. But, also the likelihood of higher black turnout in states in the south closer to Obama. And it looks like this is happening, on top of the economy helping out Obama and the awful campaign being run by McCain.

[HuskyCaucasian]

My theory, was that due to Obama opening offices in every state, McCain likely would not win in the solid red states by as much as Bush won them.

Oh i agree there and I think most polling proves that out except in maybe states like Texas.

 

But to me, a "close, but not enough" loss is really nothing more than a moral victory.

 

Now, if Obama were to lose the Electoral College, but win the Pop. Vote, then we might have an uprising. And maybe... just maybe... this electoral college system will be dumped, or rendered useless by the National Popular Vote movement (see my sig for a link)

[bmags]

nonetheless its clear that the 00-04 electoral map will not be recreated.

[HuskyCaucasian]

I normally don't like posting national polls, because they miss the point. But they can sometimes show a few interesting trends. And once in a while, a poll might be so interesting that I just can't pass it up.

 

CBS: Obama +14

 

Among independents, where McCain had a slight lead last week, Obama now leads by 18 points.

Well, I'll post a few more numbers here that are very interesting:

 

Does he understand your needs and problems?

Obama: 64% Yes, 29% No

McCain: 43% Yes, 53% No

So, the "elitist" "intellectual" Democrat is beating the "my friends" Republican by 21 points.

 

Opinion of the Presidential Candidates:

Obama: 50% Favorable, 32% Unfavorable

McCain: 36% Favorable, 41% Unfavorable

 

Opinion of the Vice-Presidential Candidates:

Biden: 43% Favorable, 21% Unfavorable

Palin: 32% Favorable, 41% Unfavorable

One week ago, Palin was 40% Fav-32% UnFav

 

Which party is more likely yo make the right decisions about the health care system?

Dem: 55%.... Rep: 18%

This is probably why Obama has been hammering health care since the last debate.

 

Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure?

Mind made up: 85%

Too early to say for sure: 15%

Edited October 15, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[Balta1701]

I normally don't like posting national polls, because they miss the point. But they can sometimes show a few interesting trends. And once in a while, a poll might be so interesting that I just can't pass it up.

 

CBS: Obama +14

 

Among independents, where McCain had a slight lead last week, Obama now leads by 18 points.

 

ETA: The money graf:

And I'm reading that the difference in OPS between those 2 players isn't as big as we'd expect.

If Andrew Sullivan is right and the CBS-NYT poll to be released this evening shows a 14-point lead for Obama, we shouldn't actually regard this as all that shocking a result.

 

Presently, our best estimate is that Obama has about an 8-point national lead. However, CBS polls have leaned about 3 points more Democratic than the average this year. In other words, our baseline expectation is that a CBS poll should be showing about an 11-point for Obama right now.

 

You wind up to the Obama side of the +/- 3 point margin of error, and that's how you get to 14 points.

 

Not that this is good news for McCain exactly -- the balance of polling over the past 48 hours indicates that Obama's true lead is probably more like 8 points (maybe even inching upward toward 9) than 6 or 7. But it's not quite as bad as it will look on the surface.

[HuskyCaucasian]

And I'm reading that the difference in OPS between those 2 players isn't as big as we'd expect.

that's a good analysis. The Dem v Ind v Rep percentages are really hard to nail down. I'd throw out any poll that has Rep and Dem near tied.

 

The weighted numbers are:

Dem: 37.47%

Rep: 29.16%

Ind: 33.4%

Edited October 15, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[HuskyCaucasian]

Interesting thought:

Exit polls dont really factor in early voting as best as I know. So, when it comes to a state like GA, exit polls may show McCain +5ish, but in reality, due to heavy African-American early voting, it might be 1.

 

This would apply to ALL early voting states I would think. including key states like Ohio and VA.

[NorthSideSox72]

And I'm reading that the difference in OPS between those 2 players isn't as big as we'd expect.

Well, no. He's saying its bigger than expected, but not so big as to be well out of the realm of current trends. Its certainly not smaller than expected. Its on the outside edge of the bias+error in favor range.

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

Well, no. He's saying its bigger than expected, but not so big as to be well out of the realm of current trends. Its certainly not smaller than expected. Its on the outside edge of the bias+error in favor range.

Oh come on, I had to make it sound baseball-y somehow.

[DukeNukeEm]

 

I'm getting boners at this point. Substantial boners.