2008 General Election Discussion Thread

[mr_genius]

Yeah, it's really waaay to peaceful around here.

 

[The Bones]

CNN has posted a fun map, showing (in their opinions) what states are safely to one candidate, leaning to one, or a toss up.

 

Here is the map.

 

I personally have to disagree with some of these. My disagreements:

 

ID, KS, NE, TN, AK: I'd call these leaning McCain, not safely McCain

WV, AR, LA: I'd call these safely McCain, unless Clinton runs with Obama (then AR is maybe in play)

VA: This should be leaning McCain, not toss-up

 

Anyone else have opinions?

 

This all changes of course based on VP choices, debate performance, and other factors that will come up as time goes on. I'm just saying, where they are at right now.

 

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

 

I followed this site closely back in 2004 and 2006. I may have even gotten the link from someone here. Anyways...once more polls start coming in and it gets closer to the election it's an interesting thing to watch change day to day.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Link to come soon...

 

New NBC Poll

Obama - 48

McCain - 41

 

Obama / Clinton - 51

McCain / Romney - 42

 

Who do you think will be the next president?

Obama - 54 (i think it was 54)

McCain - 30 (!!!!)

 

Change vs Experience

Change - 54

Experience - 42

 

Top Priorities

Jobs Economy - 27

War in Iraq - 24

Gas - ??? (missed it)

 

 

Edited June 11, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[HuskyCaucasian]

New NBC Poll

Obama - 48

McCain - 41

 

An interesting perspective...

It's worth putting Obama's lead into this perspective: Bush never trailed Kerry in the 2004 NBC/WSJ polls that measured registered voters' preference for Bush, Kerry, and Nader. And Bush's lead was never bigger than four points.

 

Here were the NBC/WSJ trial heats from March 2004 (when Kerry pretty much locked up the nomination) to late October 2004:

March (Mar.6-8): Bush 46%, Kerry 43%, Nader 5%

May (May 1-3): Bush 46%, Kerry 42%, Nader 5%

June (June 25-28): Bush 45%, Kerry 44%, Nader 4%

July (July 19-21): Bush 47%, Kerry 45%, Nader 2%

August (Aug.23-25): Bush 47%, Kerry 45%, Nader 3%

September (Sept.17-19): Bush 48%, Kerry 45%, Nader 2%

Mid October (Oct.16-18): Bush 48%, Kerry 46%, Nader 2%

Late October (Oct.29-31): Bush 48%, Kerry 47%, Nader 1%

 

Final Results: 50.7%, Kerry 48.3%

[HuskyCaucasian]

This seems like as good a thread as any for this...

 

PBS to go gavel-to-gavel on conventions

As this summer's national political conventions take place (Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO; August 25 to 28; Republican National Convention in St. Paul, MN; September 1 to 4), The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer will produce 24+ hours of live, prime time coverage to be broadcast in high-definition nationwide on PBS. These eight nights of convention coverage will be the only complete broadcast coverage made available by a U.S. broadcast television network.

[FlaSoxxJim]

I'm convinced! I've been backing the wrong team.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Obama +11 in Ohio

Barack Obama seems to have a very good start in Ohio as the general election season beings, a new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) suggests. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 39%, beyond the ±3.6% margin of error.

 

Back in early March, when Obama was on the verge of a bruising defeat in the state's primary, McCain led 49%-41% in PPP's reporting. If Obama can successfully unite Dem voters and not lose too many Hillary voters -- and this poll indicates he can -- then life could become very difficult for McCain.

 

Also worth noting: PPP's final pre-primary survey of Ohio got Hillary's primary margin almost exactly right.

 

[BigSqwert]

Quinnipiac has some new poll numbers:

 

FLORIDA: Obama 47, McCain 43

OHIO: Obama 48, McCain 42

PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52, McCain 40

[HuskyCaucasian]

Quinnipiac has some new poll numbers:

FLORIDA: Obama 47, McCain 43

OHIO: Obama 48, McCain 42

PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52, McCain 40

you beat me to it. i just saw those numbers.

[BigSqwert]

you beat me to it. i just saw those numbers.

I'd figure Obama's Florida numbers will rise a bit in the short term because of the offshore drilling talk.

[HuskyCaucasian]

I'd figure Obama's Florida numbers will rise a bit in the short term because of the offshore drilling talk.

and that McCain vows to fix the everglades.... but voted against a bill that would do just that and missed all 15 environmental votes of 2008. OOPS!!

 

He later said he'd much rather have an everglades specific bill... but hasnt introduced one.

Edited June 18, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[lostfan]

I'm not convinced Obama is winning FL.

[FlaSoxxJim]

I'm not convinced Obama is winning FL.

 

No, it will definitely be a tough race. But, with McCain, Crist, Martinez, and W all coming out just this last week in favor of lifting the offshore oil drilling moratorium, I think Obama is going to pick up some more bipartisan support. For 20+ years, Florida support for continuing to ban coastal drilling has been refreshingly non-partisan, and this flipflop by McCain and Coppertone is going to hurt the GOP in Florida in November.

[HuskyCaucasian]

and this flipflop by McCain and Coppertone is going to hurt the GOP in Florida in November.

no surprise. there is reportedly a list of 24-30 McCain Flip-Flops... and the race just started. I am sure the list will grow well over 30 by the end.

Edited June 18, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[lostfan]

No, it will definitely be a tough race. But, with McCain, Crist, Martinez, and W all coming out just this last week in favor of lifting the offshore oil drilling moratorium, I think Obama is going to pick up some more bipartisan support. For 20+ years, Florida support for continuing to ban coastal drilling has been refreshingly non-partisan, and this flipflop by McCain and Coppertone is going to hurt the GOP in Florida in November.

Why don't they want to allow the drilling?

 

I honestly don't know.

[southsider2k5]

Why don't they want to allow the drilling?

 

I honestly don't know.

 

Here's why... the country wants it.

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_con...ll_lower_prices

 

67% Support Offshore Drilling, 64% Expect it Will Lower Prices

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

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Most voters favor the resumption of offshore drilling in the United States and expect it to lower prices at the pump, even as John McCain has announced his support for states that want to explore for oil and gas off their coasts.

 

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey—conducted before McCain announced his intentions on the issue--finds that 67% of voters believe that drilling should be allowed off the coasts of California, Florida and other states. Only 18% disagree and 15% are undecided. Conservative and moderate voters strongly support this approach, while liberals are more evenly divided (46% of liberals favor drilling, 37% oppose).

 

Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters believe it is at least somewhat likely that gas prices will go down if offshore oil drilling is allowed, although 27% don’t believe it. Seventy-eight percent (78%) of conservatives say offshore drilling is at least somewhat likely to drive prices down. That view is shared by 57% of moderates and 50% of liberal voters.

 

Nearly all voters are worried about rising gas and energy prices, with 79% very concerned and 16% somewhat concerned.

 

McCain is expected to formally call today (Tuesday) for the lifting of the federal moratorium on states being allowed to explore off their coasts for oil and gas deposits. While acknowledging it is only a short-term response, he has described it as a good first step toward reducing U.S. energy dependence on overseas sources.

 

The Outer Continental Shelf moratorium, passed in 1981, bans exploration for offshore natural gas and oil deposits. Barack Obama, McCain’s opponent for the White House, voted against an effort to lift the ban last year in the Senate. He argued that it was only a short-term solution. National Democratic Party leaders and most environmental organizations for years have strongly opposed efforts to explore for oil off the coast of the U.S.

 

According to the new survey, 85% of Republicans are in favor of offshore drilling as opposed to 57% of Democrats and 60% of unaffiliated voters. Those who call themselves conservatives favor such drilling 84% to 46% of liberals and 59% of self-designated moderates.

 

African-American voters are less supportive of such drilling than whites – 58% to 71%.

 

Women are more skeptical than men about the impact such drilling will have on gas prices: Nearly one out of three male voters (32%) say prices are very likely to go down, a view shared by only 23% of women.

 

Four out of five Republicans (79%) think prices are likely to fall thanks to offshore drilling, a view shared by only 55% of Democrats. Sixty percent (60%) of unaffiliated voters expect it to happen.

 

Voters also believe 61% to 22% that oil companies should be required to reinvest at least a portion of their profits into alternative energy research. On this question, liberal and moderate voters are strongly supportive of the proposal while conservatives are more evenly divided (47% of conservatives in favor, 35% opposed)

 

Data released yesterday showed that Americans believe developing new energy sources is the best long-term solution to the nation’s energy problem. Forty-seven percent (47%) said private companies were more likely to solve the nation’s energy problem than government research programs. But, at the same time, only 52% said companies should be allowed to keep the profits from the discovery of any alternative fuel sources.

 

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

[BigSqwert]

Why don't they want to allow the drilling?

 

I honestly don't know.

Florida relies heavily on tourism. Oil rigs and potential oils spills would not fare well on its many beaches.

[lostfan]

FL aside, I don't see why we shouldn't be allowed to explore for oil if it's here in the country assuming it won't do significant damage to the environment or populated areas. But even still, we need to just stop thinking about oil, period. Even if we did start drilling here, and in Alaska etc. that doesn't really help because oil is not the future. I was listening to Giuliani talk this morning and I swear you could replace "oil" with the word "crack" and it sounded the same.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Florida relies heavily on tourism. Oil rigs and potential oils spills would not fare well on its many beaches.

ahhh good point. i never thought of that.

[BigSqwert]

FL aside, I don't see why we shouldn't be allowed to explore for oil if it's here in the country assuming it won't do significant damage to the environment or populated areas. But even still, we need to just stop thinking about oil, period. Even if we did start drilling here, and in Alaska etc. that doesn't really help because oil is not the future. I was listening to Giuliani talk this morning and I swear you could replace "oil" with the word "crack" and it sounded the same.

That's my whole issue with it. Seems like such a short-sighted option. There needs to be way more emphasis on renewable/alternative energy. I personally feel there are more cons than pros with additional oil exploration.

[BigSqwert]

ahhh good point. i never thought of that.

And we're talking hurricane alley. Seems like a recipe for disaster.

[HuskyCaucasian]

And we're talking hurricane alley. Seems like a recipe for disaster.

oh yea, really great point

[HuskyCaucasian]

New Poll Updates:

Virginia: PPP (D)....06/14 - 06/16....893 LV.... Obama +2.0

Wisconsin: SurveyUSA.... 06/13 - 06/16.... 538 LV.... Obama +9.0

Minnesota: SurveyUSA.... 06/13 - 06/16.... 543 LV.... Obama +1.0

 

Of VERY interesting note.. Alaska:

In one of the bigger surprises of Election 2008, early polling shows Barack Obama as potentially competitive in Alaska.

 

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Alaska voters finds John McCain earning 45% of the vote while Barack Obama attracts 41%. Seven percent (7%) say they’d vote for some other candidate while another 6% are not sure (see video report). This is the third straight poll showing Obama within single digits of the presumptive GOP nominee. A month ago, McCain was up by nine. Two months ago, it was McCain by nine.

 

The RealClearPolitics Map as of this moment:

 

Edited June 18, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[HuskyCaucasian]

Quinnipiac has some new poll numbers:

 

FLORIDA: Obama 47, McCain 43

OHIO: Obama 48, McCain 42

PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52, McCain 40

Not that ARG has been all that reliable, but...

Florida: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

[Cknolls]

And we're talking hurricane alley. Seems like a recipe for disaster.

 

 

How about shale deposits in the west?