2008 General Election Discussion Thread

[HuskyCaucasian]

Even if it's 100% true...how much of the responsibility for his brother's actions/mistakes should we hang on Joe Biden? If my brother gets in trouble with the law, it's not exactly incumbent on me to help make sure that the legal matter gets settled.

exactly. My sister was involved in a car accident a few months back. She was held at fault (long story there). So, if she didnt pay up the $300, does that mean they should come to me and demand I pay or demand I make her pay?

 

Her problem is her problem.

[HuskyCaucasian]

I dont think the "Big Ten Battleground Poll" is very legit, but they have Obama +10 in Indiana and +12 in Ohio.

 

Public Policy Polling has Obama +2 in Indiana.

Edited October 23, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[NorthSideSox72]

I dont think the "Big Ten Battleground Poll" is very legit, but they have Obama +10 in Indiana and +12 in Ohio.

 

Public Policy Polling has Obama +2 in Indiana.

Quinnipiac shows Obama +13 in Ohio as well. Seems less like an outlier now.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Quinnipiac shows Obama +13 in Ohio as well. Seems less like an outlier now.

I have reservations about Quinnipiac

[BigSqwert]

Pretty interesting article:

 

Using Google Trends to Predict Elections?

[BigSqwert]

From Politico:

The Republican establishment is beginning to express long-suppressed exasperation with the McCain pirate ship. In an early-morning phone call to Playbook, one of the most senior Republican strategists in the land warns the McCain campaign after reading the WashTimes interview: “Lashing out at past Republican Congresses instead of Pelosi and Reid, and echoing your opponent's attacks on you instead of attacking your opponent, and spending 150,000 hard dollars on designer clothes when congressional Republicans are struggling for money, and when your senior campaign staff are blaming each other for the loss in The New York Times [Magazine] 10 days before the election, you’re not doing much to energize your supporters. The fact is, when you’re the party standard-bearer, you have an obligation to fight to the finish. I think they can still win. But if they don’t think that, they need to look at how Bob Dole finished out his campaign in 1996 and not try to take down as many Republicans with them as they can. Instead of campaigning in Electoral College states, Dole was campaigning in places he knew he didn’t have a chance to beat Clinton, but where he could energize key House and Senate races. I think you’ll find these sentiments shared by MANY of my fellow Republican strategists.”

[NorthSideSox72]

I have reservations about Quinnipiac

538 seems to think they are halfway decent. Big 10 maybe not. But with them both showing those numbers, I think it will be interesting to see other polls for OH in the next couple days.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

538 seems to think they are halfway decent. Big 10 maybe not. But with them both showing those numbers, I think it will be interesting to see other polls for OH in the next couple days.

hmmmm...

 

SUSA is still my indicator. I'll half trust most polls, but if SUSA confirms something, I'll believe it.

 

FWIW: The last SUSA a month ago in IN had McCain only +3 and Obama +5 in Ohio 10 days ago.

 

So, Ohio might be lean Obama, but IN is a toss-up.

Edited October 23, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[Soxbadger]

Bob Dole was a good guy.

 

If I had the opportunity I would have voted for him.

[Balta1701]

538 seems to think they are halfway decent. Big 10 maybe not. But with them both showing those numbers, I think it will be interesting to see other polls for OH in the next couple days.

Even a good pollster will miss the actual amount by something larger than the margin of error 5% of the time.

[BigSqwert]

It's like groundhog day in this thread.

[Reddy]

538 seems to think they are halfway decent. Big 10 maybe not. But with them both showing those numbers, I think it will be interesting to see other polls for OH in the next couple days.

right - they're both showing big numbers. let's see what comes out tomorrow.

[HuskyCaucasian]

We've been talking about Ohio, PA, FL, ect. So, I thought I would flash back to 2004.

 

RCP FL (Oct 22-26):

Bush- 48.857

Kerry- 46.57

Final Result: Bush 52-47

 

RCP OH (Oct 22-27):

Bush- 47.167

Kerry- 48.5

Final Results: Bush 51-49 (Bush took the lead in polls starting Oct 26th and never looked back)

 

RCP PA (Oct 22-27):

Bush- 47

Kerry- 49.25

Final Results: Kerry 51-49

 

Take from this what you want. But if Obama is +5 or more in OH and PA at this point in time, it looks very good for him. A 1 point lead in FL does NOT look good for Obama. OBVIOUSLY, this is a different election and Obama's ground game is strong. So, FL is still in play. But it's hard to poll "snow birds" who are just migrating south.

[NorthSideSox72]

We've been talking about Ohio, PA, FL, ect. So, I thought I would flash back to 2004.

 

RCP FL (Oct 22-26):

Bush- 48.857

Kerry- 46.57

Final Result: Bush 52-47

 

RCP OH (Oct 22-27):

Bush- 47.167

Kerry- 48.5

Final Results: Bush 51-49 (Bush took the lead in polls starting Oct 26th and never looked back)

 

RCP PA (Oct 22-27):

Bush- 47

Kerry- 49.25

Final Results: Kerry 51-49

 

Take from this what you want. But if Obama is +5 or more in OH and PA at this point in time, it looks very good for him. A 1 point lead in FL does NOT look good for Obama. OBVIOUSLY, this is a different election and Obama's ground game is strong. So, FL is still in play. But it's hard to poll "snow birds" who are just migrating south.

Obama doesn't even need FL to win. If he takes OH along with the Kerry states, Obama wins. All those other toss-up states, like VA, NC, CO, NM, NV, etc., are just icing.

 

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Obama doesn't even need FL to win. If he takes OH along with the Kerry states, Obama wins. All those other toss-up states, like VA, NC, CO, NM, NV, etc., are just icing.

we will get exit polls out of VA at 6PM. I'm of the opinion that if they show Obama up by more than say...4 or 5 points, I'd call the election for Obama. Obviously the networks cant call it, but if you look at all the other states, an Obama win in VA is nearly a lock for an electoral college win.

Edited October 23, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[NorthSideSox72]

I'm of the opinion that we will get exit polls out of VA at 6PM. If they show Obama up by more than say...4 or 5 points, I'd call the election for Obama.

I'd be very cautious with exit polls. Look at 2004.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

I'd be very cautious with exit polls. Look at 2004.

actually, I did look at 2004.

The average difference between exit poll results and actual results was a combined total of 0.78 (Kerry polls were off by .39 and Bush by .39) The largest difference was 1.58% for Kerry and 2.01 for Bush. So, even at WORST, if someone is leading by 4 points, the exit polls show he's probably going to win.

 

PS: the Dem primaries (non-caucus states) were a total of 1.67 points off (Obama .9, Clinton .77)

Edited October 23, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[Balta1701]

I'd be very cautious with exit polls. Look at 2004.

The exit polls were actually surprisingly accurate in hindsight IIRC...the oddity appeared because people took the mid-day exit polls and published them and said "Oh, Kerry won!"

[HuskyCaucasian]

the oddity appeared because people took the mid-day exit polls and published them and said "Oh, Kerry won!"

that happened a lot with some of this years primaries. When the official exit polls are released when polls close, they are usually already weighted. They dont go back and revise them later.

[BigSqwert]

Obama leading in Montana per Montana State University-Billings survey:

 

Obama 44, McCain 40

 

Dates conducted: Oct. 17-20. Error margin: 5 points

[HuskyCaucasian]

Obama leading in Montana per Montana State University-Billings survey:

 

Obama 44, McCain 40

 

Dates conducted: Oct. 17-20. Error margin: 5 points

A poll conducted the day before shows McCain +4. So, who knows. I'm not really all too focused on Montana.

 

But hey, Bush won MT with 59% of the vote in 2004. Kerry didnt even crack 40%. Every poll since Oct 1 has Obama over 40%.

[HuskyCaucasian]

I should note, I'll have my laptop ready to go on election night with SoxTalk open and my exit poll spread sheet ready to go. As soon as I fill in the data on my end, it'll be posted here.

[longshot7]

I don't think God chooses sides in elections....or sporting events. But that's just me.

 

That's because God doesn't exist.

[StrangeSox]

The exit polls were actually surprisingly accurate in hindsight IIRC...the oddity appeared because people took the mid-day exit polls and published them and said "Oh, Kerry won!"

 

That and absentee/ early voting, right?

[NorthSideSox72]

Obama leading in Montana per Montana State University-Billings survey:

 

Obama 44, McCain 40

 

Dates conducted: Oct. 17-20. Error margin: 5 points

Interesting. Even with the poll the day before showing McCain +4, that seems to make the state a toss-up. Add in the fact that Schweitzer is there, and that Obama has so much cash, and I'd say it won't be a surprise to see Obama start to make a push there.

 

Obama will probably win NM and CO, is a slight fave in NV, and now is in toss-up territory in MT. I am glad to see that the Dems got serious about the mountain west, as I've said they should do for some time. I think that's their new frontier.