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2008 General Election Discussion Thread


HuskyCaucasian

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This ad really shows the desperation level of the McCain campaign at the moment. It's REALLY sad to see, but "vote for us or die" is almost becoming a playbook message from the GOP. Not to mention it takes a quote out of context even more than usually seen in politics.

 

The bigger issue here is I think regardless of who wins, the terrorist will test them. Look at the timing of the 1993 WTC bombing and 9/11, both happened within months of inauguration day (in the case of the 1993 bombing, within weeks). I wish I could just vote for "neither" on the presidential portion of the ballot.

Edited by whitesoxfan101
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QUOTE (Cknolls @ Oct 22, 2008 -> 02:23 PM)

I assume John McCain should be held responsible for the actions of... John McCain?

For the past two months, a major American magazine and an allied news service have been engaged in a legal battle with the United States Navy over records that they believe show that John McCain once was involved in an automobile accident that injured or, perhaps, killed another individual.

 

Vanity Fair magazine and the National Security News Service claim to have knowledge "developed from first-hand sources" of a car crash that involved then-Lt. McCain at the main gate of a Virginia naval base in 1964, according to legal filings. The incident has been largely, if not entirely, kept from the public. And in documents suing the Navy to release pertinent information, lawyers for the NS News Service allege that a cover-up may be at play.

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QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 28, 2008 -> 10:06 AM)
Don't know where to post this, so I will ask here. Has anyone asked McCain if he gave up government secrets while in captivity? And has any outlet reported on his years as a P.O.W.?

 

 

But we know/knew Bush was a member of skull and bones and he drank and did coke and the like. I'm done continue your charade.

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QUOTE (kapkomet @ Oct 28, 2008 -> 11:45 AM)
It amazes me how bats*** crazy all of you are becoming to "pedal your guy". The tendencies have always been there, but now, it's relentless.

 

They're all f***tards, and your loyalty is going to turn into disappointment.

Well Kap, I'd say whoever gets the nod can't do as bad as the guy who's been in charge for the last 8 years, simple as that.

 

So if you look at it from that point of view, then I don't think people are going to be disappointed.

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QUOTE (DBAHO @ Oct 28, 2008 -> 10:56 AM)
Well Kap, I'd say whoever gets the nod can't do as bad as the guy who's been in charge for the last 8 years, simple as that.

 

So if you look at it from that point of view, then I don't think people are going to be disappointed.

You're right. Because no matter what Obama does, he will be a saint. It's very obvious that no matter what the guy says or does, he's "above it all". Read around for perfect examples.

 

For me, the standard's set very high. For most, if it's "their guy", it's good enough for them.

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QUOTE (kapkomet @ Oct 28, 2008 -> 11:02 AM)
You're right. Because no matter what Obama does, he will be a saint. It's very obvious that no matter what the guy says or does, he's "above it all". Read around for perfect examples.

 

For me, the standard's set very high. For most, if it's "their guy", it's good enough for them.

 

Dude chill out. He mentioned if either candidate won it would be an improvement.

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QUOTE (kapkomet @ Oct 28, 2008 -> 12:02 PM)
You're right. Because no matter what Obama does, he will be a saint. It's very obvious that no matter what the guy says or does, he's "above it all". Read around for perfect examples.

 

For me, the standard's set very high. For most, if it's "their guy", it's good enough for them.

Whoever comes in, is argubly going to have the hardest job as president since WW2 IMHO, when you look at the economy, the oil issue, global warming, and the war on terror with Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

So I just personally think, if the next president can get the economy back on track, can sort out what's happening in Iraq / Afghanistan better (personally I think way more troops need to be in the latter ASAP), and can help create a better solution to help keep gas prices down and stop Americans being so dependent on Oil, then yeah, I think he's done a pretty good job.

 

A lot better than GWB anyways.

 

I have to say I'm no fan of McCain and I am going for Obama, because I think he'll improve America's relations with the world back to the days Clinton was president, but I think McCain would do a better job in charge than Bush. Palin as his #2, just worries the hell out of me I have to say though.

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QUOTE (DBAHO @ Oct 28, 2008 -> 11:10 AM)
Whoever comes in, is argubly going to have the hardest job as president since WW2 IMHO, when you look at the economy, the oil issue, global warming, and the war on terror with Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

So I just personally think, if the next president can get the economy back on track, can sort out what's happening in Iraq / Afghanistan better (personally I think way more troops need to be in the latter ASAP), and can help create a better solution to help keep gas prices down and stop Americans being so dependent on Oil, then yeah, I think he's done a pretty good job.

 

A lot better than GWB anyways.

 

I have to say I'm no fan of McCain and I am going for Obama, because I think he'll improve America's relations with the world back to the days Clinton was president, but I think McCain would do a better job in charge than Bush. Palin as his #2, just worries the hell out of me I have to say though.

I don't disagree with your point about the next four years being difficult. And, it's also what's not happened yet that will be the most difficult to deal with.

 

 

 

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Late Deciders in Recent Presidential Elections

By Brian Schaffner

 

On October 1st I noted that we weren't likely to see much movement in the polls in October. This was based on survey data from the past two campaigns that indicated that few voters tend to change their minds once they have settled on a candidate. Of course, if an October comeback was fairly unlikely, then a final week comeback is undoubtedly a longer shot.

 

According to this site's national trend estimate, Obama's margin is almost twice as large as the percentage of undecided voters left. Thus, at this point, McCain's only path to victory involves attracting support from voters who are currently planning to vote for Obama. This certainly isn't impossible. After all, pre-election polls ask voters which candidate they would vote for if the election were held today. Just because a respondent says they would vote for a particular candidate if the election were held today does not necessarily mean they have made a final decision on that candidate. For example, the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll indicates that 9% of respondents who have chosen a candidate say that there is a chance they could change their minds. Should this give the McCain campaign any hope?

 

To answer this question, I looked at exit polls from the last four presidential contests. In each year, the exit polls included a question asking respondents: "When did you finally decide who to vote for in the presidential election?" This question provides a way of capturing which voters had not completely settled on their vote choice until the last week of the campaign. The chart below plots the percentage of late deciders across the past four presidential elections.

 

lastweek1-thumb-350x229.png

 

Interestingly, voters appear to be settling on their vote choices earlier in recent campaigns. In 1992, one-quarter of the electorate said that they did not come to a final decision until the final week of the campaign and the figure was about 30% in 1996. However, by 2004, nearly nine in ten voters reported that they had settled on their presidential vote choice before the final week of the campaign. Whether it is because of increasingly longer campaigns or heightened polarization, the fact that voters are making their final decisions earlier in recent contests does not bode well for the McCain campaign. In short, there are fewer late deciders to win over than there were in previous years.

 

Nevertheless, according to the ABC News/Washington Post survey, 8% of Obama supporters say that they could still change their minds (11% of McCain supporters say the same). Is there a chance that McCain can win over those Obama supporters that still have doubts while holding on to his own soft support? Recent history suggests that such an outcome is unlikely. The chart below breaks down the vote choices made by those who said that they came to a final decision during the last week of the campaign.

 

lastweek2-thumb-350x255.png

 

According to the evidence from the exit polls, in every election since 1992 Democrats have fared better than Republicans among late deciders. Of course, it may be the case that in these elections Democratic support was softer than Republican support going into the final week. But in none of the last four elections did late deciders break more for the Republican candidate than for the Democrat. Once again, this pattern does not give the McCain campaign much hope.

 

Overall, current polling and recent history suggests that there is little hope for a final week comeback. There are fewer late deciders in recent elections than there have been in the past, a pattern that seems to be holding in this contest. Furthermore, late deciders have tended to break more for the Democratic candidate in previous elections, not the Republican. Thus, the prospect of a McCain comeback seemed quite unlikely at the beginning of October and it appears to be truly improbable now.

 

 

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