2008 General Election Discussion Thread

[MexSoxFan#1]

That's a funny video,lol...we need to laugh a little because this election is getting real ugly with the effigys and with Hannity,Rushbo et al trying to scare people with this nonsense that Obama is a foreign terrorist...Obama/Biden 08

[HuskyCaucasian]

A McCain pollster is on MSNBC right now. Here's what he's saying in regards to the polls.

 

Basically, he says the "party identification" numbers used by most polls are way off. They believe the democrats have a 3-4% lead on party identification, while most pollsters say it's closer to 5-7%, if not higher. He said we have a "political structure" in America where party identification is nearly identical. (Roughly 33% Dem, Rep, and Ind/Other)

 

Apparently they dont think the voter registration numbers in states that trace party affiliation are very wrong or something.

 

I think he's very wrong on that. not this year. There are a LOT of people who are pissed of with not only Bush, but the Rep party. I think only a 3% difference is not accurite.

Edited October 31, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[NorthSideSox72]

A McCain pollster is on MSNBC right now. Here's what he's saying in regards to the polls.

 

Basically, he says the "party identification" numbers used by most polls are way off. They believe the democrats have a 3-4% lead on party identification, while most pollsters say it's closer to 5-7%, if not higher. He said we have a "political structure" in America where party identification is nearly identical. (Roughly 33% Dem, Rep, and Ind/Other)

 

Apparently they dont think the voter registration numbers in states that trace party affiliation are very wrong or something.

 

I think he's very wrong on that. not this year. There are a LOT of people who are pissed of with not only Bush, but the Rep party. I think only a 3% difference is not accurite.

Every poll I have seen of current party affiliation shows a 10-12-ish point lead right now for the Dems. So if anything, I'd say most polls are identifying far too many Republicans.

 

This is just the McCain camp trying to get the base to show up at the polls, by illustrating they have a chance.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Every poll I have seen of current party affiliation shows a 10-12-ish point lead right now for the Dems. So if anything, I'd say most polls are identifying far too many Republicans.

 

This is just the McCain camp trying to get the base to show up at the polls, by illustrating they have a chance.

Since SurveyUSA has some easy to read cross tabs, I'll take a look at what their polls have said:

Iowa: Obama 55 - McCain 40

Dem: 45%

Rep: 29%

 

Missouri: Tied at 48

Dem: 36%

Rep: 33%

 

New Hampshire: Obama 53 - McCain 42

Dem: 30%

Rep: 29%

 

North Carolina: Tied at 47

Dem: 44%

Rep: 39%

 

Ohio: Obama 49 - McCain 45

Dem: 45%

Rep: 35%

 

Pennsylvania: Obama 53 - McCain 41

Dem: 52%

Rep: 41%

 

Virginia: Obama 52% - McCain 43%

Dem: 38%

Rep: 30%

 

Wisconsin: Obama 55% - 39%

Dem: 37%

Rep: 32%

 

The only state that seems way off compared to party id in 2004 exit polls is Iowa. Every other states seem within reason based on the current political climate. (PS: Dem voted ID in Penn is up 10 points)

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Since SurveyUSA has some easy to read cross tabs, I'll take a look at what their polls have said:

Iowa: Obama 55 - McCain 40

Dem: 45%

Rep: 29%

More on Iowa:

Independents: Obama 49% - McCain 43%

Republican: Obama 14% - McCain 43%

Democrats: Obama 85% - McCain 11%

 

Since Iowa is basically split along party lines with Obama having a 6% lead in independents, It's conceivable how McCain could see a chance to win Iowa if the party id was split 33%-33%-33% Or, even if the party id was like 2004 (Rep-36%, Dem-34%, Ind-30%). But even being conservative, I'd give the Dems a 2-3% party id advantage.

 

So, there is a VERY slim road for McCain to win Iowa.

 

Update: Using the SurveyUSA numbers,

If the party ID was split like 2004, Obama would still win 49-47 (within the margin of error). If you run it 36% Dem, 34 Rep (inverse of 2004), Obama wins 50-45.

If you assume the 2008 party ID is accurate, McCain needs to win 75% of the independents to make Iowa a 49-49 tie.

Assuming Dems only account for 38%, and Reps count for 35%... Obama wins 50-45... McCain would need 57% of Independents to tie at 49%

 

So, i can see how McCain MIGHT think he can win there, it's highly unlikely.

Edited October 31, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[bmags]

You can get a pretty good idea of how a state feels about a candidate. I know missouri is tight from living here, so I trust heads when he says Iowa loves Obama.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Here's something to factor in: Early Voting and Exit Polls

 

With millions of people taking advantage of early voting in states across the country, election experts have been examining the data available and discussing the impact on next Tuesday’s exit poll results and, ultimately, the election itself.

 

Some analysts are projecting that early voting will amount to more than 30 percent of the total turnout this election. And more than 30 states now have some form of early voting, with much of it continuing through this week and long lines reported in many of them.

.....

Some states will be too close for races to be called on Tuesday, based on exit polls alone, and problems with releases of horse-race figures relying on early exits have been problematic in the past.

 

While lamenting the fact that so many of us rely too heavily on the exits on election night as an indicator of who will win, Mark Blumenthal, of pollster.com, extolled the treasure trove of information mined from them. It’s a snapshot of “who voted, why they voted, what their demographics are.”

 

Basically.... due to the MASSIVE early voting going on, exit polls may not be very accurate this year. Especially in states where the exit polls show the race as close.

Edited October 31, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[DrunkBomber]

McCain won. They didnt announce a vote count. Not surprising for a Lutheran school.

Gives me some hope for the future.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Some STAGGERING early voting numbers:

In Florida, 2,872,459 votes have been cast. That's 38% of the total number of votes cast in 2004. Democrats now account for 46% of the vote, Republicans 38.2%, and Independents 15.8%.

 

In North Carolina, 1,847,860 votes have been cast. That's 52% of the total votes cast in 2004. That is a stunning number. Basically half (well, nearly half) the electorate in North Carolina has already voted. And there, Democrats make up 53.3% of the vote, Republicans make up 29.2%, and Independents make up 17.6%. 27% of all voters thus far have been black. By comparison, most polls have been figuring that black turnout in NC would be around 20%.

 

In Colorado, 1,291,571 votes have been cast. That is a stunning 60.1% of the full 2004 vote total. Updated party stats aren't available but according to the latest Public Policy poll of Colorado, which is the most recent poll of the state, Obama is leading among those who have already voted by 17%.

 

In Nevada, 443,211 votes have already been cast. That is 53.3% of the full 2004 vote total. Again, that means roughly half of all voters in the state have already voted. And while party breakdowns for the total aren't available, in the state's largest county (Clark County) which makes up more than half the state's voters, Democrats make up 53% of the vote, Republicans 30.1%, and Independents 16.9%.

 

 

[kapkomet]

That's a funny video,lol...we need to laugh a little because this election is getting real ugly with the effigys and with Hannity,Rushbo et al trying to scare people with this nonsense that Obama is a foreign terrorist...Obama/Biden 08

I don't think they've EVER said that. I don't listen to them, but they certainly have their right to draw an association to William Ayers if no one else will.

 

[fathom]

As someone who's rooting for Obama, how concerned should I be that McCain is leading in the Zogby one day poll?

[HuskyCaucasian]

As someone who's rooting for Obama, how concerned should I be that McCain is leading in the Zogby one day poll?

Zogby may be, and probably is, the most unreliable poll out there.

[KipWellsFan]

As someone who's rooting for Obama, how concerned should I be that McCain is leading in the Zogby one day poll?

 

Just get out and work harder. Don't sit around diddling your thumbs worrying.

[DrunkBomber]

That's a funny video,lol...we need to laugh a little because this election is getting real ugly with the effigys and with Hannity,Rushbo et al trying to scare people with this nonsense that Obama is a foreign terrorist...Obama/Biden 08

You got a link for this news flash?

[Rex Kickass]

As someone who's rooting for Obama, how concerned should I be that McCain is leading in the Zogby one day poll?

 

Polls don't win elections, votes do. If you're really worried, contact your local Obama office and get some call/walk sheets and do something about it.

[Rex Kickass]

So Obama's aunt. They made a big deal this week that she was living in public housing.

 

Turns out she requested asylum when she moved to the US. It was denied in 2004, but she was never deported. Makes her technically illegal.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081101/ap_on_el_pr/obama_aunt

[bmags]

So Obama's aunt. They made a big deal this week that she was living in public housing.

 

Turns out she requested asylum when she moved to the US. It was denied in 2004, but she was never deported. Makes her technically illegal.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081101/ap_on_el_pr/obama_aunt

 

this paragraph tells you everything you need to know:

 

"Information about the deportation case was disclosed and confirmed by two separate sources, one a federal law enforcement official. The information they made available is known to officials in the federal government, but the AP could not establish whether anyone at a political level in the Bush administration or in the McCain campaign had been involved in its release."

[HuskyCaucasian]

As someone who's rooting for Obama, how concerned should I be that McCain is leading in the Zogby one day poll?

All party ID

Asked earlier this week what the partisan weighting of their poll currently is, a Zogby aide told the Huffington Post: "Party ID remains at 38 Democratic - 36 Republican - 26 Independent. We have added a point for 18-29 [year old voters], 1.5 for African Americans, and 2 for Hispanics."

 

Earlier this year, Zogby told me that "party ID is a lead variable, and a major determinant in how people vote. I apply a weight to party ID, and if I see a reason for it to change, I will."

 

Still, Zogby's two point party ID advantage for Democrats is the smallest of any polling firm. The last four days of the Hotline/Diageo poll show anywhere from a four- to six-point advantage for Democrats -- and a simultaneous seven-point lead for Obama. Gallup's latest surveys indicate that Democrats have an 11-point advantage over Republicans in party ID.

 

Zogby's partisan makeup gives even less of a partisan advantage to Democrats than Fox's latest poll, which earned some skepticism, as well.

[NorthSideSox72]

As someone who's rooting for Obama, how concerned should I be that McCain is leading in the Zogby one day poll?

1. Since this isn't a national election, the national polls are pretty irrelevant. This is 50 statewide, weighted elections. So its really best to look at the state polls.

 

2. Zogby is garbage - ignore his polls.

 

3. if you really want to look at national polls anyway, according to RCP, looking at the NON-Zogby national polls... they range from Obama +5 to Obama +10.

 

4. Looking at the states in play... only 2 Kerry states are even a possibility for McCain (PA, NH), and he is leading those by 5-10 points and 7-11 points respectively in the latest polls.

 

5. Of the Bush states in play, Obama leads in NV, NM, CO, IA, OH, VA and NC. And ND, MT, IN and possibly AZ are small McCain leads.

 

[KipWellsFan]

Gallup still hasn't shown any narrowing nationally. Nonetheless just get out there and work!

[HuskyCaucasian]

My pastor is preaching what to vote on this weekend... not who to vote for.

 

I really dislike politics in church.

[Flash Tizzle]

Has anyone heard more information about this "civilian national security force" Obama has been mumbling about? I can't seem to find information without running through some conservative blog.

[mr_genius]

Has anyone heard more information about this "civilian national security force" Obama has been mumbling about? I can't seem to find information without running through some conservative blog.

 

never heard of it

[Flash Tizzle]

never heard of it

Here's a clip:

 

 

It's from July, and I can only guess that if the Republicans haven't jumped all over it these last couple months he either mispoke or clarified his statement.

[Rex Kickass]

1. Since this isn't a national election, the national polls are pretty irrelevant. This is 50 statewide, weighted elections. So its really best to look at the state polls.

 

2. Zogby is garbage - ignore his polls.

 

3. if you really want to look at national polls anyway, according to RCP, looking at the NON-Zogby national polls... they range from Obama +5 to Obama +10.

 

4. Looking at the states in play... only 2 Kerry states are even a possibility for McCain (PA, NH), and he is leading those by 5-10 points and 7-11 points respectively in the latest polls.

 

5. Of the Bush states in play, Obama leads in NV, NM, CO, IA, OH, VA and NC. And ND, MT, IN and possibly AZ are small McCain leads.

 

Zogby's Friday Sample, McCain +1.

Saturday's Sample, Obama +10.