Carlos Quentin

[DBAHO]

It's safe to say, Quentin's been a bit of a revelation over the past 3 games. When we acquired him, I hoped he would be our LF from day 1, and when Swisher was acquired, I thought a Quentin - Swisher - Dye OF would be the best for this team this season.

 

But there was a LOT of pressure on here during ST for Brian Anderson to get a starting gig in CF. And then with Ramirez doing what he did in ST, Quentin became sort of the forgotten man (recovering from the shoulder surgery).

 

Coming into this season, I thought if healthy, Quentin was capable of hitting at least 20 HR's and having an .800-.850 OPS. And some people may think I'm silly for a prediction like that.

 

But then again, have a look at his track record;

 

2005 - AAA; .301/.422/.520

2006 - AAA; .286/.422/.484, MLB; .253/.342/.530

2007 - AAA; .348/.430/..574; MLB; .214/.298/.349

 

So this guy has just crushed minor league pitching in his career thus far. And it was only with his injury last season that he really struggled in the majors, and with the D-Backs having an OF of Byrnes, Young and Upton, he became expendable.

 

So what do people think of him? Is he a building block? Is he a core guy now? Does he deserve to be considered a bonafide starter now, or is it still way too early for that (which I'm sure will probably be the main argument because of the small sample size).

 

Either way, I think this could end up being one of KW's best ever deals. Quentin has to stay healthy though.

 

[rangercal]

If this guy stays healthy, I can not see how he would not be a starter. 20 hrs is the least I expect from him playing 150+ games. Given his track record he can be a 25+ hr guy in our park.

[harfman77]

It's safe to say, Quentin's been a bit of a revelation over the past 3 games. When we acquired him, I hoped he would be our LF from day 1, and when Swisher was acquired, I thought a Quentin - Swisher - Dye OF would be the best for this team this season.

 

But there was a LOT of pressure on here during ST for Brian Anderson to get a starting gig in CF. And then with Ramirez doing what he did in ST, Quentin became sort of the forgotten man (recovering from the shoulder surgery).

 

Coming into this season, I thought if healthy, Quentin was capable of hitting at least 20 HR's and having an .800-.850 OPS. And some people may think I'm silly for a prediction like that.

 

But then again, have a look at his track record;

 

2005 - AAA; .301/.422/.520

2006 - AAA; .286/.422/.484, MLB; .253/.342/.530

2007 - AAA; .348/.430/..574; MLB; .214/.298/.349

 

So this guy has just crushed minor league pitching in his career thus far. And it was only with his injury last season that he really struggled in the majors, and with the D-Backs having an OF of Byrnes, Young and Upton, he became expendable.

 

So what do people think of him? Is he a building block? Is he a core guy now? Does he deserve to be considered a bonafide starter now, or is it still way too early for that (which I'm sure will probably be the main argument because of the small sample size).

 

Either way, I think this could end up being one of KW's best ever deals. Quentin has to stay healthy though.

 

Quentin has played well in the time he has had and Ozzie will be out in a tough spot when Owens comes back as it will be hard for him to justify sitting Quentin if he keeps performing. But a week into the season I am not ready to call him a core player for the future. We can all remember the show that Casey "The Babe" Shelton put on in Detroit and now he is struggling to make a major league roster. He has potential to be a great player if he can maintain his level of play.

[daa84]

i've been one of the biggest advocates of playing carlos quentin since day 1 of that trade...i loved the deal right away and ive stated my reasons many times on here...here they are again

 

1 year before we got quentin, he was nearly untouchable...he was the dbacks #1 prospect, torched the minor leagues, and came up and hit 14 HR in a little more than half a season a the big league level while putting up a respectable .350 obp (pretty good for his first time looking at major league pitching)....KW took advantage of a ridiculously packed young OF in arizona and got him cheap

 

Carlos Quentin's worst full season in the minors, came at AAA as a 21 year old .301/.422/.520....to compare, Quentin's worst season came at a younger age than Josh Fields best season of .305/.379/.505....and his season was probably still better....Quentin's minor league totals of .312/.427/.526...that obp indicates not only that he had a great knowledge of the strike zone, but all the walks suggested that his numbers would translate very well to the major leagues...he was basically a premier on base prospect and had good natural power

 

When he was coming out of the minors, Quentin was just about the safest bet among scouts to become a .280 20 HR guy of anyone in the minors at the time....add in the fact that he is a ++ athlete (I believe a Football All-American in High school as well), defends well with a good arm (save the dropped fly last night)

 

What do I think he can become? Its always a gamble, but I think right away you can expect a Xavier Nady type player, with the chance to become a jermaine dye, Raul Ibanez, or vernon wells type offensive player

Edited April 7, 2008 by daa84

[RME JICO]

We can all remember the show that Chris "The Babe" Shelton put on in Detroit and now he is struggling to make a major league roster. He has potential to be a great player if he can maintain his level of play.

Fixed.

 

You're right. It is too early to annoint him, but his track record says that he has the ability to produce.

[DBAHO]

This was from John Sickels from minorleagueball.com back in May 2006 about Quentin compared to another prospect at the time, Joel Guzman (who's now with Durham the Rays AAA team IIRC);

 

BACKGROUND and INTANGIBLES

Quentin: Carlos Quentin was drafted by the Diamondbacks in the first round of the 2003 draft. A very successful college player at Stanford, Quentin's draft stock was hurt slightly by the fact that he needed Tommy John surgery. He was the 29th overall pick, but could have gone in the top 15-20 picks were it not for the injury. Quentin recovered from the surgery successfully, and has been a dominant hitter at all three levels of the minor leagues. He has a strong work ethic and is regarded as emotionally mature.

Guzman: Joel Guzman was signed by the Dodgers as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2001. One of the most sought-after players in Dominican history, he signed for a record bonus in excess of $2.2 million. He struggled early in his career, but started to put things together in 2004 at the age of 19. Guzman had some disciplinary problems initially, but has outgrown this and is now regarded as a hard worker.

Advantage: Both Guzman and Quentin had high profiles as amateurs and were well-known to scouts. Quentin had plenty of high-pressure experience playing for Stanford, but Guzman has been very young for his leagues. Guzman's early discipline problems seem a thing of the past, so in terms of background and intangibles they seem pretty even to me.

 

PHYSICALITY and TOOLS

Quentin: Quentin is a righthanded hitter and thrower, well-built at 6-1, 225 pounds. He is a fine athlete who also played football and basketball in high school in addition to starring on the diamond. His running speed is slightly above average, and he shows good baserunning instincts even though he isn't a huge stolen base threat. He used to have a very strong arm; injury has reduced the zip on his throws, though they are still accurate. His feel for the game helps his outfield defense; he is a very strong defender at either corner, and runs well enough to play center field without killing you, although in the long run he needs to be at a corner. He has a very quick bat, with a smooth stroke with a touch of loft. He shows power to all fields, pulling the ball or going to the opposite field as needed. Quentin crowds the plate and gets hit by a lot of pitches, but his bat is quick enough to handle any mistakes on the inner half. He has no major weaknesses as a hitter.

Guzman: Guzman is a righthanded hitter and thrower, tall, lanky, but strong at 6-5, 225 pounds. He is an excellent overall athlete. His running speed is average but good considering his size. Although not a large stolen base threat, he's improved his reads on the bases and is increasingly skilled as a baserunner. His best defensive tool is his arm, strong enough for third base or shortstop. The Dodgers moved him to the outfield this spring, and he has more than enough arm for right field. He needs to improve reading balls and running routes, but the early reports on his defensive transition are positive and he is expected to become a good outfielder with experience. With the bat, Guzman has excellent bat speed and plus/plus power potential. He can be fooled by breaking balls at times, leading to strikeouts, and in general he needs to improve his plate discipline. If he can refine the strike zone, he is capable of Miguel Cabrera-type numbers.

Advantage: Both players are athletic, although Guzman's physical ceiling is a tad higher. . .he has more raw power and a stronger arm than Quentin. Quentin has fewer flaws as a hitter right now, but he's also older than Guzman. Again, this is pretty damn close once you balance everything out. But since this is the "tools" category, I think you have to give Guzman a slight edge.

 

PERFORMANCE

Quentin: Quentin came into 2006 with a career mark of .316/.428/.534, including .301/.422/.520 in Triple-A last year. It is true that his home parks have favored offense. But his BB/K/AB ratio is outstanding, with as many walks as strikeouts. Taking some of the thin-air-small-park factor out of his stats still shows Quentin as a .270/.360/.450 hitter at the major league level. His numbers have remained steady since he entered pro ball, with no deterioration at all even as he faces better competition.

Guzman: Guzman came into 2006 with a career mark of .272/.323/.459, including .287/.351/.475 last year in Double-A. His BB/K/AB ratio is much less impressive than Quentin's. Guzman strikes out once a game and his walk rate is just marginal. Guzman's MLEs show him as a .250/.300/.450 player at the major league level right now. His statistics have improved over the last two years, holding his own against better pitching.

Advantage: Quentin.

 

PROJECTION

Quentin: Quentin is 24 years old and entering his prime. He projects as a .270-.290 hitter in his prime at the major league level, with a high on-base percentage and above-average power.

Guzman: Guzman is only 21 years old, and is farther away from his peak. As stated, scouts believe that Guzman has Miguel Cabrera-like ability, if he can gain sufficient command of the strike zone.

Advantage: Guzman has a higher ceiling and is younger. He is also riskier and more likely to flame out than Quentin.

 

OVERALL

Well, let's see. They are even in terms of background and intangibles. Guzman has the edge on tools, Quentin has the edge on performance. Guzman has more projectability and a higher ceiling due to his youth, but he is also riskier and less likely to actually reach his ceiling. Balance all that out and it is about as even as you can get. Which prospect comes out ahead depends on how you want to weigh each factor. If you value "higher ceiling" more than "safer pick," you should pick Guzman. Personally, I think I would rather have Quentin.

[ShoeLessRob]

He's a very good player and every time he comes up to bat you can't help but get on your feet. He's going to K alot but also walk and smack the s*** out of balls. 24 homers is what I'm shooting for.

[BaseballNick]

Quentin has played well in the time he has had and Ozzie will be out in a tough spot when Owens comes back as it will be hard for him to justify sitting Quentin if he keeps performing. But a week into the season I am not ready to call him a core player for the future. We can all remember the show that Casey "The Babe" Shelton put on in Detroit and now he is struggling to make a major league roster. He has potential to be a great player if he can maintain his level of play.

 

His performance must have really stuck with you. His name is Chris Shelton (honest mistake). I'm ready to call Quentin a vital part of the team's future. He's a plus defender (despite the inexcusible lack of focus error yesterday). He's shown a teriffic arm and pretty good speed. He's got to be on the field and in the line-up as much as Ozzie can get him in. I agree with Steve Stone on this one, he can turn out to be the steal of the off-season.

[CanOfCorn]

His performance must have really stuck with you. His name is Chris Shelton (honest mistake). I'm ready to call Quentin a vital part of the team's future. He's a plus defender (despite the inexcusible lack of focus error yesterday). He's shown a teriffic arm and pretty good speed. He's got to be on the field and in the line-up as much as Ozzie can get him in. I agree with Steve Stone on this one, he can turn out to be the steal of the off-season.

 

What a great position for the White Sox to be in! There are 5 or 6 players you can make an argument for starting. Or at least give good reasons why they should start. You've got your established vets in Swisher and Dye. You've got your speed in Owens. You've got your toolsy players in Quentin and Anderson. And you've got your unknown in Ramirez.

 

It's the exact opposite of last year. Quentin is exciting and he's only going to get better. I think Dye might be DH or gone within the next year or two with Quentin sliding over to RF.

[jackie hayes]

I think those are reasonable expectations, DBAHO. For this year, 20-odd hr with a .350 obp and .450 slg look plausible...IF he gets enough pt. (I'm still not convinced Owens won't get enough abs to cut into that dramatically, though.) The way his spring started, I didn't think he'd recovered from the injury, but that looks wrong now. It was a good trade and I expect he can and will be a core player for the Sox.

 

That doesn't mean, though, that I think the Sox are right in how they've used Anderson. That topic usually swerves off and hijacks a thread, and I don't mean to do that -- I'm just saying, I think that "pressure" was warranted, but it doesn't mean I have low expectations for Quentin.

[lvjeremylv]

I will admit that I have only seen Quentin play twice (Friday & Saturday vs. the Tiggers), but based on what I saw, this kid is capable of well over the 20-24 HR level I've read you guys suggest. He blasted one on Friday, and missed #2 on Saturday by mere inches in what was one of the hardest hit balls I can remember seeing in recent memory. And he also had a swing with a 2-0 count that was with SERIOUS authority. He looks extremely dangerous at the plate to say the least.

 

His minor league high for HR was 21, which came in 2005 in Triple-A. That was in 136 games. He batted .301, had an OBP of .422 and a slugging pct of .520. Also, he had 4 triples, 9 steals (in 10 attempts), and 11 outfield assists. Stud.

 

This kid, if he can stay healthy, will in my opinion hit 30+ playing half his games at the Cell. It could turn out to be one of the best trades in Sox history.

[Steve9347]

He needs to be deeply entrenched as a bonafide starter for us.

 

If he gets his at bats, I'd be willing to bet on at least 30 homers and 100+ rbi. Yeah, he's got 7 RBI already, but the guys got talent and will draw his walks too.

 

If they give him the atbats, the lineup we ran out last night will do some damage this year.

[lostfan]

When you move up to a more difficult level, isn't it true that the K-BB-PA ratio usually stays about the same, and the power will drop some while the player adjusts to more difficult pitching? This is what they say about Japanese power hitters coming over to the US.

[lvjeremylv]

When you move up to a more difficult level, isn't it true that the K-BB-PA ratio usually stays about the same, and the power will drop some while the player adjusts to more difficult pitching? This is what they say about Japanese power hitters coming over to the US.

Not sure, but I think playing at the Cell is going to pretty much cancel out any decline in power numbers. Plus he's going to have 30 HR potential guys (Swish, Thome, Dye, Paulie) and 20 HR potential (Crede, Uribe) batting around him, which I'm sure he didn't have in the minors.

[Rowand44]

A lot. This kid is just talented as all hell, he's going to go through some tough stretches this year though. He's going to be an all star down the road imo.

[hi8is]

he's one of the only sox on the roster that im extreemly interested in, if only for the fact that i know very little about him

 

i got the basics down, safe bet to translate to a solid everyday pro

productive minor league numbers

top draft pick

yada yada yada

 

but as you guys know, its much different reading about someone and seeing them do their thing

 

this kids has excited me. i wanna see him play until he faulters, and im not sure if he will.

[lvjeremylv]

he's one of the only sox on the roster that im extreemly interested in, if only for the fact that i know very little about him

 

i got the basics down, safe bet to translate to a solid everyday pro

productive minor league numbers

top draft pick

yada yada yada

 

but as you guys know, its much different reading about someone and seeing them do their thing

 

this kids has excited me. i wanna see him play until he faulters, and im not sure if he will.

Exciting is the perfect word. That throw he made in Saturday's game (about a 200 foot, no-hop PERFECT throw to Paulie from LF to double off the lazy Edgar Rentaria) was all I needed to see from Carlos Quentin to know that I REALLY want to see more, and I can't wait to see what he can do if given the chance to play everyday for us. I just hope he can stay healthy so he can have a fair shot to display his talents.

[JorgeFabregas]

I think he's capable of having some .900+ OPS seasons in his career, especially if he's playing at the Cell. His minor league average is .953--it wouldn't seem improbably for his major league average to be somewhere around .850-.875.

[daa84]

he's one of the only sox on the roster that im extreemly interested in, if only for the fact that i know very little about him

 

i got the basics down, safe bet to translate to a solid everyday pro

productive minor league numbers

top draft pick

yada yada yada

 

but as you guys know, its much different reading about someone and seeing them do their thing

 

this kids has excited me. i wanna see him play until he faulters, and im not sure if he will.

very true hi8us....however i believe there is a difference with Carlos....mainly much of the hype surrounding this guy isnt from a message board, or even from the upper management in the front office like many sox prospects...the hype from quentin came nationally from baseball america, BP and others...not to mention unlike our top prospects who have all had issues with stirke zone judgement, quentin excelled at....and alot of sabrmetricians (and even regular scouts for that matter) agree that ability to command the strike zone in the minors is the best indicator of future major league success...so while anderson was our #1 pick who we all heard alot about, quentin is a totally different animal...anderson was a "tools" guy, while quentin had the stats and tools

Edited April 7, 2008 by daa84

[ptatc]

he's one of the only sox on the roster that im extreemly interested in, if only for the fact that i know very little about him

 

i got the basics down, safe bet to translate to a solid everyday pro

productive minor league numbers

top draft pick

yada yada yada

 

but as you guys know, its much different reading about someone and seeing them do their thing

 

this kids has excited me. i wanna see him play until he faulters, and im not sure if he will.

 

No it's not!!!! All you need to do is see their career minor and major league stats. It will tell you everything.

Edited April 7, 2008 by ptatc

[Chisoxfn]

Tim Salmon. I know people compared him to Canseco and they look a like, but I also think his swing has a s***load of similarities to Salmon (I kept trying to figure it out the past few games and it finally hit me this morning).

[RockRaines]

He should be the Sox starting RF'er for many years. He will be a beast for us. With him hitting behind AJ, it gives our lineup 100 percent better production.

[daa84]

Tim Salmon. I know people compared him to Canseco and they look a like, but I also think his swing has a s***load of similarities to Salmon (I kept trying to figure it out the past few games and it finally hit me this morning).

http://youtube.com/watch?v=loFA83ESREo

 

i would say you are correct sir, very similar stances...little bit of an uppercut swing, especially on the low pitch...

 

btw its always amazing to me how much of a local hero tim salmon was to the angel fans, but i guess he did play his whole career there and was fairly decent

[Kyyle23]

Tim Salmon. I know people compared him to Canseco and they look a like, but I also think his swing has a s***load of similarities to Salmon (I kept trying to figure it out the past few games and it finally hit me this morning).

 

I see Tim Salmon a little bit in his swing. Salmon was much more focused on going the opposite way though, and he was a little more straight up in his approach, but they definitley look similar. If Quentin closed his stance just a bit they would look exactly alike

[Soxpranos]

For one , keeping Owens at AAA.