Sox offense looking better than 2006

[VAfan]

Here's a link to the batting stats of the Sox from 2006.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/battin...=2&type=reg

 

Here's how the Sox have started 2008.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/battin...=2&type=reg

 

Compared to 2006, when we finished third in runs with 868, the first thing I notice is that both Jermaine Dye and Joe Crede are back to their 2006 form. That was Jermaine's best year in the majors offensively. It was also Crede's. Both are way ahead of that pace, which suggests they can come back to earth and still outpace their 2006 numbers.

 

Second, we now have Nick Swisher and his .904 OPS in CF, not the 2006 duo of Brian Anderson/Rob Mackowiak at .649/.769. That's a huge upgrade. And while Swisher might not keep up that pace, he also might, given the cozy confines of the Cell. .904 is not that much above his best year in Oakland, which was also 2006 (.865).

 

Third, we have young stud Carlos Quentin and his .988 OPS in LF instead of 2006 Scott Podsednik of the .684 OPS. Sure, Quentin will not keep it up, but given his minor league track record, he's likely to finish somewhere in the .800-.900 range, which is another huge improvement over 2006.

 

Fourth, I would expect the 2008 double-play combo of Cabrera/Uribe to hit about as well as the 2006 combo of Uribe (.698 OPS)/Iguchi (.774 OPS). Cabrera is off to a slow start, but his career OPS is .723. He'll hit only half as many HRs as Iguchi's 18, but he's otherwise about as good. Meanwhile, Uribe is hitting slightly better than he did in 2006 (.715 OPS so far) despite his horrible BA and OBP. Plus, it's possible A. Ramirez or D. Richar will replace him and do better.

 

Fifth, AJ is tearing the cover off the ball, so it is easy to see him improving on his 2006 .769 OPS. His career rate is .762. So, even as he tails off, he's almost certain to stay ahead of his 2006 numbers.

 

That leaves Jim Thome and Paul Konerko. Both are off quite a bit from 2006, but does anyone expect that to remain the case for the entire year? I don't think they'll match 2006, when Thome's OPS was 1.014 and Konerko's was .932, but between them they should be able to match 2007, when Thome was .973 and Konerko was .841. (I expect Thome to slide a bit more, to below .950, but Konerko to balance that in the high .800s.)

 

Notice that the team OBP so far is .372 compared to .342 in 2006. SLG is also up .30 points, from .464 to .494. I don't expect either of these to hold for a full year, but I expect both to remain well above 2006 levels. The net effect of that is going to be more runs. With fewer outs, you end up a lot more big innings.

 

There is a wild card here -- Ozzie Guillen. He could always blow things by inserting Jerry Owens and his .636 OPS for Quentin's .900+ OPS. But there's hope that won't happen. The biggest indicator is using Swisher as lead off man because he's an OBP machine. Maybe Ozzie is starting to get it??? (Nah... But we can hope.)

 

So, if we continue to have good health, and Quentin gets most of the time in LF, I think the Sox could score, in 2008:

 

900 runs

 

GO SOX!

[WilliamTell]

I would say no because to me, it seemed like nearly everyone except Thome was having a career year at the plate in 2006 if I remember right anyways. I think we have a much better shot at 900 than the Tigers do at 1000. I can't remember who said they would, but someone from ESPN said they were going to score a 1000 runs.

[sox-r-us]

There is a wild card here -- Ozzie Guillen. He could always blow things by inserting Jerry Owens and his .636 OPS for Quentin's .900+ OPS. But there's hope that won't happen. The biggest indicator is using Swisher as lead off man because he's an OBP machine. Maybe Ozzie is starting to get it??? (Nah... But we can hope.)

 

GO SOX!

 

Ozzie was recently quoted as saying that you cannot steal 1st base and he would much rather have someone who gets on base at lead off (Swish) than someone who has speed but does not get on base as much as the other guy (see Owens).

[RME JICO]

I could see somewhere around 825-850, but 900 would be over a 200 run increase in one year. That would be crazy. Possible, but unlikely.

Edited April 9, 2008 by RME JICO

[lvjeremylv]

That's just over 5.5 runs a game. I think if we can avoid the major injuries to our key offensive players, it's a possibility. The comparisons between this and the 2006 Sox are valid, and on paper this team has a lot more potential. The biggest differences are Swisher and Quentin. Those 2 are a HUGE upgrade over Podsednik/Mackowiak/Anderson/etc from 2006.

[ScottyDo]

Really could happen. All this is true, not to mention I feel like our bench is pretty studly. Granted, we haven't seen much of the season but we have seen things we can draw a trend from. For instance, there is almost certainly a new hitting approach. Lots of nice, stay-back swings on the nasty stuff away that turn into up-the-middle and other-way singles. Definitely more patience.

 

I dunno, I tend to think it's possible but my real guess is we finish just short. At least we'll be a pain in the butt to a lot of teams.

 

P.S. I'm not a huge Owens detractor, I think he could have some value if he develops appropriately. But not on this team as it's currently configured. Right now, we're an OBP team and Owens is not yet an OBP player. So keep him away from my lineup! Please!

[VAfan]

I would say no because to me, it seemed like nearly everyone except Thome was having a career year at the plate in 2006 if I remember right anyways. I think we have a much better shot at 900 than the Tigers do at 1000. I can't remember who said they would, but someone from ESPN said they were going to score a 1000 runs.

 

What I think you miss is how better hitting accumulates to lift all boats, so to speak. If you take away the "outs" in the lineup, it fatigues the opposing pitcher, making it easier for everyone to hit. So, it's not that unusual for guys to have career years together. (I still remember the 1977 Sox -- the South Side Hit Men -- where every member of their lineup hit his career high in HRs (to that point) in the same year. Check them out. There's a book about them. http://books.google.com/books?id=wLnW18psYCMC )

 

The opposite was true last season, when the key guys were down and the automatic "outs" filled several places on the field the entire year -- LF, CF, SS, 2B.

 

This year, there is only one "out" in the lineup -- the 9 hole of Juan Uribe -- and he probably isn't going to last the year there. But, even if he did, his power has allowed him to average more than 70 RBI/year over the last 3 seasons. And if Quentin and Crede and AJ hit the way they have been ahead of him, he could drive in even more runs.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Compared to 2006, when we finished third in runs with 868, the first thing I notice is that both Jermaine Dye and Joe Crede are back to their 2006 form. That was Jermaine's best year in the majors offensively. It was also Crede's. Both are way ahead of that pace, which suggests they can come back to earth and still outpace their 2006 numbers.

 

 

Its been 7 freaking games!!! Yes, it is very encouraging the start they are on, but that does not mean Joe is back. He hadnt played for 10 months before this and he had an awful spring. I would love if he came back and he has started off well, but lots of people can go on a 7 game streak in thie league. And to say they are ahead of their 2006 pace is ridiculous. Its been 7 games. As someone said, Crede is on pace for over 200 RBI.

 

I'm not gonna lie and say i'm not excited or optimistic about this team, because I am. They are playing great to start the year and i am thoroughly enjoying it. However, to get too excited because of 7 games to start the year is irresponsible.

[sox-r-us]

Its been 7 freaking games!!! Yes, it is very encouraging the start they are on, but that does not mean Joe is back. He hadnt played for 10 months before this and he had an awful spring. I would love if he came back and he has started off well, but lots of people can go on a 7 game streak in thie league. And to say they are ahead of their 2006 pace is ridiculous. Its been 7 games. As someone said, Crede is on pace for over 200 RBI.

 

I'm not gonna lie and say i'm not excited or optimistic about this team, because I am. They are playing great to start the year and i am thoroughly enjoying it. However, to get too excited because of 7 games to start the year is irresponsible.

 

Looks like you are suffering from some bitter lemonade (see your sig - you may soon have to change it ... just kidding )

[sox-r-us]

Ozzie was recently quoted as saying that you cannot steal 1st base and he would much rather have someone who gets on base at lead off (Swish) than someone who has speed but does not get on base as much as the other guy (see Owens).

 

Here is the quote. Hopefully, now we can stop the perception that Ozzie would rather have Owens lead off instead of Swish (which is not true at all)

 

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sp...1,2007109.story

[Balta1701]

I would say no because to me, it seemed like nearly everyone except Thome was having a career year at the plate in 2006 if I remember right anyways. I think we have a much better shot at 900 than the Tigers do at 1000. I can't remember who said they would, but someone from ESPN said they were going to score a 1000 runs.

I count maybe 2-3 guys who had what you might consider career years. Dye, Crede, and AJ, maybe Pablo if you count him also. At the other end though, we had a bad Uribe, an injured and simply terrible Podsednik, an average Iguchi, Konerko putting up big RBI numbers but actually down a bit on the power numbers from the year before (RBI's in no small part due to Thome hitting in front of him), Anderson and Mackowiak playing CF.

 

The offense was carried by the career year guys, but it was certainly hampered by the dead weight hanging out in the 8-2 spots.

[lostfan]

Again, say what you want about Macowiak as a CF, but I simply can't recall him ever hampering our offense... if he did, then he wouldn't have been in CF ahead of Anderson.

[StrangeSox]

Again, say what you want about Macowiak as a CF, but I simply can't recall him ever hampering our offense... if he did, then he wouldn't have been in CF ahead of Anderson.

 

2006 stat line:

 

OBP-SLG-AVG

.365 .404 .290

 

His OBP was tied with Ozuna for 5th best on the team.

[Balta1701]

Again, say what you want about Macowiak as a CF, but I simply can't recall him ever hampering our offense... if he did, then he wouldn't have been in CF ahead of Anderson.

In the 2nd half of 06 he was actually pretty bad with the bat. Anderson level or worse. Post all star break that year his line was .258/.307/.398/.705. In August he put up a .668 OPS and September .590. The offense that was clicking in the first half struggled more in the 2nd half by all accounts, and Mack was as much a part of that as any.

[lostfan]

In the 2nd half of 06 he was actually pretty bad with the bat. Anderson level or worse. Post all star break that year his line was .258/.307/.398/.705. In August he put up a .668 OPS and September .590. The offense that was clicking in the first half struggled more in the 2nd half by all accounts, and Mack was as much a part of that as any.

2006 splits aside, I think Mack has proven to be a pretty decent hitter throughout his career. Not an All-Star, but plenty serviceable.

[VAfan]

Its been 7 freaking games!!! Yes, it is very encouraging the start they are on, but that does not mean Joe is back. He hadnt played for 10 months before this and he had an awful spring. I would love if he came back and he has started off well, but lots of people can go on a 7 game streak in thie league. And to say they are ahead of their 2006 pace is ridiculous. Its been 7 games. As someone said, Crede is on pace for over 200 RBI.

 

I'm not gonna lie and say i'm not excited or optimistic about this team, because I am. They are playing great to start the year and i am thoroughly enjoying it. However, to get too excited because of 7 games to start the year is irresponsible.

 

 

So what if it's been 7 games? I'm not giving Crede an OPS of 1.098 for the year. But it seems to me he's already shown enough to suggest he could post something as good or better than the .829 OPS of 2006. He's 29 -- right in the prime of his career. And even if he went down or is traded, I would expect Josh Fields to provide an OPS close enough to Crede's 2006 totals to conclude that our 2008 offense is better overall. (As a rookie, he came in at .788 OPS on a bad team last year.)

 

Let me add a little side-by-side here using OPS numbers (some current, some estimated):

 

1. Swisher (.904) v. Pods (.684)

2. Cabrera (.732 career) v. Iguchi (.774)

3. Thome (est. .950) v. Thome (1.014)

4. Konerko (est. .880) v. Konerko (.932)

5. Dye (est. .980) v. Dye (1.006)

6. AJ (est. .800) v. AJ (.769)

7. Quentin (est. .830) v. Crede (.829)

8. Crede/Fields (est. .840) v. Anderson/Mack (combo roughly .700)

9. Uribe (.715) v. Uribe (.698)

 

The biggest improvement in this lineup is what has happened in the 8-9-1 group. Instead of 3 guys in a row with below-.700 OPS numbers, which puts stops on long innings and gives pitchers a kind of NL break, we have 3 guys who can all mash the ball. Crede will certainly hit at least 25 HRs if he's healthy, Uribe hits 20 HRs a year, and Swisher should approach or exceed his 35 HRs from 2006. And the on base improvements in the 8 and 1 spots should also be huge.

 

Otherwise, I see the 2-7 spots being nearly as productive as the 2006 group. Cabera's in for Gooch, and Quentin's in for Crede, with the other guys the same.

 

If you look overall, I'm suggesting only two spots in the lineup -- Cabrera and Uribe (2 and 9) -- will fail to exceed an .800 OPS. Again, that's HUGE. Plus, I'm not calling for a huge improvement over 2006 -- just 32 runs, or less than 4%. And, sure, we might not get there. But it doesn't look like that much of a long shot to me.

[VAfan]

Thought I would come back to this after the 7-0 and 11-0 pastings of the Tigers over the weekend.

 

Sox are now at 70 runs after 11 games, or 6.4 runs/game. Over 162, that would end up at 1030 runs. Periodically I plan on returning to this thread to see our progress.

 

But the way we scored in those two games reemphasizes my points. On Sunday, we hit two grand slams. We had a 4-run and a 6-run inning. Each was fueled by walks. On Saturday, when the weather was miserable, we had only scratched out two hits and a run (solo HR by Cabrera) into the bottom of the 8th. But then we broke through for 6 runs without the benefit of a long ball.

 

The fascinating thing is that we've morphed into the Red Sox/Yankees offense. OBP + SLG. Not much speed. I heard Hawk say Cabrera has our only stolen base. And Ozzie keeps praising this style?? Even more amazing.

 

GO SOX!

Edited April 14, 2008 by VAfan