Balta1701 Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 01:32 PM) http://www.drudgereport.com/ the headline is "5pm (et) exit Poll 52 Clinton 48 Obama" no source or anything, but first numbers I've seen. It's been my impression that the exit polling has been pro-Obama more often than not, has anyone else gotten that impression? Anyway, I'd be happy with anything in single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxFan562004 Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 03:34 PM) WOW!!!!! I can believe it. But, wow. Even to project that is incredible! (note that he reported yesterday that Clinton internals had her +11. So, that that for what it is worth) that Clinton internal had a link though, this doesn't, which makes me question it a ton. Also, there's always the possibility, even if these are legit, the first areas reporting have some Obama strongholds in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 mmmmm my baby Nora O'Donnell on MSNBC. *drools* Speaking of baby... i think she's pregnant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 01:39 PM) that Clinton internal had a link though, this doesn't, which makes me question it a ton. Also, there's always the possibility, even if these are legit, the first areas reporting have some Obama strongholds in them. Usually, there's no way to link exit poll data until after the tally is over, because the people who take it don't want their polling data to affect the results. But in almost all cases they do pass them on to the media and campaigns as they're being collected, so usually the exit poll leaks have some measure of reliability. Also, it really shouldn't matter which areas report first to an exit poll. It should be taken across the state and compiled as the day goes on. What would matter is if there's a selection in the time of day particular people vote, i.e. older people going during the day while working, younger people going after 5, etc, or whatever. Edit: Here's a huffington post link if you want other people on the record with those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 On the other hand, the contact of one of the guys at the National Review has it 52 Obama 47 Clinton. FWIW. Who knows at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 04:30 PM) On the other hand, the contact of one of the guys at the National Review has it 52 Obama 47 Clinton. FWIW. Who knows at this point. UPDATE: Brendan Loy looked at Obama's performance in the early exit polls and concludes "Obama generally does 7-8 points worse in the actual results than he did in the leaked, unweighted exit polls." ANOTHER UPDATE: Yes, I know Drudge has the numbers reversed. I checked with my source, and this is what they've got. I have more than one source who hears the early exit poll numbers, and haven't yet heard from all of them. So, it looks like Clinton +4 MIGHT be weighted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 FYI: Looks like Drudge and CNN might be working with different numbers. Drudge has Obama with 53% of men, but CNN has CLinton with 55%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 02:50 PM) FYI: Looks like Drudge and CNN might be working with different numbers. Drudge has Obama with 53% of men, but CNN has CLinton with 55%. The CNN article I'm reading has Clinton wiht 55% of "White males", not just males. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pierard Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 QUOTE (mr_genius @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 01:27 PM) i'm sure that 1/20th of 1% of the primary voters, who are Republicans and went to the trouble of registering Dem just to vote for Hillary Clinton, is going to make the difference. Per MSNBC "Interviews with voters as they left their polling places showed that nearly 1 in 10 had changed their party registrations in recent months to cast ballots in a primary open only to Democrats. About half had been registered Republicans, while the rest had been unaffiliated." Obviously it's not that scientific, but it seems to be much more than "1/20th of 1%." http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24251043/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 02:24 PM) The Dems have to be kicking themselves for ever giving the GOP that idea during the Michigan primaries. Yes, the GOP had never done that before this year. Never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 05:56 PM) The CNN article I'm reading has Clinton wiht 55% of "White males", not just males. ohhhhh ok. Where i saw the numbers they didnt say white. Edit: It did say white men, I just missed it. my bad. Edited April 22, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 QUOTE (pierard @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 05:08 PM) Per MSNBC "Interviews with voters as they left their polling places showed that nearly 1 in 10 had changed their party registrations in recent months to cast ballots in a primary open only to Democrats. About half had been registered Republicans, while the rest had been unaffiliated." Obviously it's not that scientific, but it seems to be much more than "1/20th of 1%." http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24251043/ CNN reported that 60% of new Dem voters went for Obama. That cheater. MSNBC isn't really a news channel IMO. 10% of voters in the Dem primary were actually Republicans there to mess stuff up? yeaaaaa riiiiiight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KipWellsFan Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 QUOTE (mr_genius @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 06:16 PM) CNN reported that 60% of new Dem voters went for Obama. That cheater. MSNBC isn't really a news channel IMO. 10% of voters in the Dem primary were actually Republicans there to mess stuff up? yeaaaaa riiiiiight Kind of agree with genius here, doubt that screwball Republicans are really having much of an effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 QUOTE (mr_genius @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 05:16 PM) CNN reported that 60% of new Dem voters went for Obama. That cheater. MSNBC isn't really a news channel IMO. 10% of voters in the Dem primary were actually Republicans there to mess stuff up? yeaaaaa riiiiiight If the republican vote is over 50% in favor of Clinton, it was an attempt to sabotage. Until Rush started his "Operation Chaos", Obama was getting 70+% of the republican vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 (edited) QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 05:18 PM) If the republican vote is over 50% in favor of Clinton, it was an attempt to sabotage. Until Rush started his "Operation Chaos", Obama was getting 70+% of the republican vote. i laugh every time i hear "Operation Chaos" . you have to admit, it's a pretty funny name he gave his dastardly plan. but i think you guys give him too much credit. he (along with all his followers of other right wing radio people) went crazy about McCain being the nominee and McCain still destroyed Huckabee. his pull isn't as big as you think. only the most hardcore of ditto heads is going to go out and register as a dem 30 before a primary as to vote hillary Edited April 22, 2008 by mr_genius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 QUOTE (mr_genius @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 06:28 PM) but i think you guys give him too much credit. he (along with all his followers of other right wing radio people) went crazy about McCain being the nominee and McCain still destroyed Huckabee. his pull isn't as big as you think. only the most hardcore of ditto heads is going to go out and register as a dem 30 before a primary as to vote hillary You cant ignore the fact that the republican winds changed when he started his littl eoperation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 05:39 PM) You cant ignore the fact that the republican winds changed when he started his littl eoperation. what, Operation Chaos? dude, it's probably not doing jack. there are so many Dems flocking to these primaries that Limbaugh's plan is really a non-factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 God Bless Tim Russert. When asked about why Obama cant finish Clinton off, he said something that was so dead on and so accurate that in my opinion it shuts this debate about "finishing off" Hillary. he said, the reason Obama cant beat is WHITE WOMEN. Think about it. Obama has Black support, Clinton has women support and they more or less split white males. He said if Hillary where a WHITE MALE, this would be over and Obama the candidate. But she has such fervent support among white woman there is no way for him to overcome that. Just like she cant over come the black vote. He hit it right on the head! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 MSNBC: Penn TOO CLOSE TO CALL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 CNN can't project, as they're saying it's very competitive. That has to be good news for Obama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 MSNBC Exit Polls: Clinton: 51.640 Obama: 47.780 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 Too Close to Call is VERY good for Obama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxFan562004 Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 Wow, too close to call basically everywhere. This has to be seen as a major blow to Clinton's campaign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 04:59 PM) Wow, too close to call basically everywhere. This has to be seen as a major blow to Clinton's campaign They didn't call Ohio until about 10-20% of the votes were counted. Too close to call can be a relative thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted April 23, 2008 Author Share Posted April 23, 2008 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 06:59 PM) They didn't call Ohio until about 10-20% of the votes were counted. Too close to call can be a relative thing. Ohio exit polls showed her winning 54-44 and she won 54-44 Today they show her winning 51.64-47.78. That's Clinton plus almost 4. And as I said earlier, exit polls have been typically within 1.5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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