lostfan Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 lol Cknolls have any of your predictions been wrong yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted November 13, 2008 Author Share Posted November 13, 2008 QUOTE (lostfan @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 03:04 PM) lol Cknolls have any of your predictions been wrong yet? Let's hope his SP 650 one is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 12:06 PM) Except that is a fully incorrect understanding of what a CDS is. Yeah, I guess I wasn't reading too closely. Their description was inaccurate, but the CDS market did get heavily leveraged. I think it was an NPR story where I heard there were about $9T worth of actual mortgages for about $45T worth of CDS hedges/ bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted November 13, 2008 Author Share Posted November 13, 2008 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 03:21 PM) Yeah, I guess I wasn't reading too closely. Their description was inaccurate, but the CDS market did get heavily leveraged. I think it was an NPR story where I heard there were about $9T worth of actual mortgages for about $45T worth of CDS hedges/ bets. Yes, the CDS market was and still is a huge problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 So what do you get when a credit crunch + bad economy meets a poorly run business? Said marginal business tanks spectacularly. And when its a large (70-100 million dollar revenue company) services company? Four million dollars of payments to travel providers disappear, tens of thousands of passengers in the lurch and Rex Kickass on the street with no place to sell cruises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 13, 2008 Share Posted November 13, 2008 QUOTE (Cknolls @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 11:59 AM) I think we could trade above 900 on futes today, 905 to be exact. If not today, definitely tomorrow. It certainly seems to me like we're locked in to 1 of those 1000 point cycles right now, where we're bouncing between 8000 and 9000 and no one wants to cross either number until something much worse or much better comes in. So in other words, today's the day to sell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 QUOTE (Rex Kicka** @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 04:24 PM) So what do you get when a credit crunch + bad economy meets a poorly run business? Said marginal business tanks spectacularly. And when its a large (70-100 million dollar revenue company) services company? Four million dollars of payments to travel providers disappear, tens of thousands of passengers in the lurch and Rex Kickass on the street with no place to sell cruises. 4 million never made it to the travel providers? Yikes. And Rex... sorry again about your job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 13, 2008 -> 05:07 PM) It certainly seems to me like we're locked in to 1 of those 1000 point cycles right now, where we're bouncing between 8000 and 9000 and no one wants to cross either number until something much worse or much better comes in. So in other words, today's the day to sell! Its been more like 7900 and 9500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 06:10 AM) Its been more like 7900 and 9500. Told ya to sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Consumer retail sales dropped by 2.8% in October - the largest drop ever recorded. Yowza. Good news is, oil is down around $60/bbl on the economic weakness and dollar strength. Well, good news in terms of short term spending, anyway. Bad news for alternative energy. And those prices won't hold that low either, in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 11:44 AM) Consumer retail sales dropped by 2.8% in October - the largest drop ever recorded. Yowza. Good news is, oil is down around $60/bbl on the economic weakness and dollar strength. Well, good news in terms of short term spending, anyway. Bad news for alternative energy. And those prices won't hold that low either, in the long run. Short-term I wouldn't be surprised to see them go under $50. Buy calls is all I have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 11:57 AM) Short-term I wouldn't be surprised to see them go under $50. Buy calls is all I have to say. Yeah, short term I think it ranges around in the 50's and 60's, and that's what the commodities guys I talk to are saying. Maybe flirts with $50 even or so. But long term, its headed up. I'd be buying calls for 2009 and 2010 contracts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 12:11 PM) Yeah, short term I think it ranges around in the 50's and 60's, and that's what the commodities guys I talk to are saying. Maybe flirts with $50 even or so. But long term, its headed up. I'd be buying calls for 2009 and 2010 contracts. It looks like the Dec09 par calls could be had for about 4.00. The 150's are 0.50 at 1.83 if you really wanted to stay small on your bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 12:32 PM) It looks like the Dec09 par calls could be had for about 4.00. The 150's are 0.50 at 1.83 if you really wanted to stay small on your bet. I don't trade commodities directly, but if I did, I think I'd take some of those Dec 09 calls around par (probably do an up range distribution of some kind from par). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 I am looking for a 914 print on futes today. Then either today or Monday we trade to 935. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 (edited) 915 just hit. And it only took an hour. Edited November 14, 2008 by Cknolls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 14, 2008 Share Posted November 14, 2008 QUOTE (Cknolls @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 11:58 AM) 915 just hit. And it only took an hour. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 15, 2008 Share Posted November 15, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 So, here's an interesting personal view I've had of the real estate market. Each month, I get a report sent to me, showing the sales of homes in my zip code. Take a look at the chart I got showing everything through October: It shows units sold in the zip code each month. The greenish line is 2007, the yellow line is 2008. Look specifically at the most recent month (October) in 2008. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted November 16, 2008 Share Posted November 16, 2008 If you go to remax.com or a similar real estate site with a "map view" option, it looks like about 50% of Bolingbrook is in foreclosure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted November 19, 2008 Author Share Posted November 19, 2008 Looking at the CNN main page, these two headlines from CNN Money are at the top: Housing Starts Lowest since 1959 Consumer Prices Post Record Drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 I think we're gradually inching closer to the next (hopefully last) land mine in the credit mess...the implosion of all of these stupid credit card programs that the banks have been printing faster than the U.S. has printed T-Bills over the last 20 years. Bank of America Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis said on Tuesday that the U.S. economy will get worse before it improves, and forecast record losses for the U.S. credit card industry. "We, as an industry, may end up with possibly the highest credit card losses the industry has ever experienced," Lewis said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 19, 2008 -> 11:09 AM) I think we're gradually inching closer to the next (hopefully last) land mine in the credit mess...the implosion of all of these stupid credit card programs that the banks have been printing faster than the U.S. has printed T-Bills over the last 20 years. Commercial real estate still has some room to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cknolls Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Closing below 848.92 will more than likely lead us to the 2003 lows at 788.9 and probably the 2002 lows at 768.65. Can 660 be far off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted November 19, 2008 Author Share Posted November 19, 2008 Markets tanking again, down around 5% on the big boards. Seems like the DOW keepings flirting with 8000 but not getting below (at least not at close). The chart looks to me like its got a ground floor around that mark, unless some other major new lurking monster appears. With the news as bad as it is already, it would have to be a pretty huge monster. I'm going to have to say to CKnolls, I don't think we're going to the 6's on the Dow. I just don't see it, unless something on the scale of a new swaps crisis or a thorough collapse of the auto industry occurs (more than just GM declaring bankruptcy - I mean someone ceasing major parts of their operations immediately). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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