The Economy, stupid

[southsider2k5]

Frankly, yeah, it's funny how everything is not as bad as we thought only a month or two ago. Almost as if the government did some sort of stimulative program.

 

Even funnier when you realize that the only things that could have affected the economy at this point are the tax cuts as the vast majority of the pure spending plans are still on the sideline.

[mr_genius]

Frankly, yeah, it's funny how everything is not as bad as we thought only a month or two ago. Almost as if the government did some sort of stimulative program.

 

actually it could be considered worse than thought of two months ago. the unemployment 'drop' by 0.1 % looks like it may have been a blip. last week alone there were over 500,000 new unemployment claims. the article merely states some expert thinks the deficit will be lower. the CBO hasn't changed anything.

 

there is already a lot of talk going around in the business media that unemployment will likely be at 10% until 2011. maybe i'll find a link

Edited August 18, 2009 by mr_genius

[Rex Kickass]

Even funnier when you realize that the only things that could have affected the economy at this point are the tax cuts as the vast majority of the pure spending plans are still on the sideline.

 

Actually, there were a number of specific things that were not tax cuts that would have had a real effect on second quarter results.

 

Among other things was a federal subsidy to increase food stamp and unemployment allotments.

 

Also, there was a lot of direct state aid in that package - which helped temporarily shore up a lot of ledger sheets and put states into positions where they could actually spend money again.

[southsider2k5]

Obama administration following the proud tradition of a Friday afternoon news dump...

 

http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=n191783

 

Washington. US President Barack Obama's administration will raise its 10-year budget deficit forecast to about nine trillion dollars, up about two trillion from the previous forecast, a US official said Friday, AFP reported.

The 2010-2019 projection, due out in a report expected next week, will supercede the previous forecast of about 7.1 trillion dollars, according to an official with the White House's Office of Management and Budget.

The OMB official requested anonymity.

The figures are expected to fuel a fierce political debate over the US deficit and debt, with Obama's Republican critics redoubling their calls for him to abandon his plans to remake US health care and fight climate change.

[southsider2k5]

It ought to be interesting to see who is left to pay for everyone else... The other thing to note is this doesn't include recesion period data.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/21/business...mp;ref=business

 

economists say — and data is beginning to show — that a significant change may in fact be under way. The rich, as a group, are no longer getting richer. Over the last two years, they have become poorer. And many may not return to their old levels of wealth and income anytime soon.

 

For every investment banker whose pay has recovered to its prerecession levels, there are several who have lost their jobs — as well as many wealthy investors who have lost millions. As a result, economists and other analysts say, a 30-year period in which the super-rich became both wealthier and more numerous may now be ending.

[southsider2k5]

Yeah that nine trillion dollar debt is probably BS as well...

 

http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/25/federal-b...way-budget.html

 

The White House now says the unemployment rate for the last three months of 2009 will be 10%. By the fourth quarter of 2010 it will come down only to 9.7%, quite close to estimates by private forecasters.

 

Whoever is in the White House "tends to be pessimistic in mid-term estimates so they can exceed expectations at the end of the year," Walker says.

 

Looking toward the end of the decade, the White House is much more pessimistic than the CBO about unemployment. From 2014 to 2019, the CBO says unemployment will be 4.8%. The White House estimates an average of 5.5%.

 

But while the White House introduced some due pessimism about the economy, it made no indication of changes in its actual budget policy. White House Budget Director Peter Orszag remarked in announcing the new numbers, "There's no doubt that additional steps will be necessary to reduce our out-year deficits (including continuing our effort to reduce spending and reform government contracting), and the administration will have more to say about all that as part of the FY 2011 budget."

 

In fact, the White House is already relying on additional steps above and beyond current legislation. To get to $9 trillion, the White House is still counting on $627 billion in revenues from cap-and-trade, $275 billion from limiting deductions on taxes, $622 billion from health savings, $295 billion from "other revenue changes and loophole closers" and $580 billion in upper-income tax provisions. That's $2.4 trillion of revenue that's far from guaranteed.