Indiana / North Carolina primary election thread

[BigSqwert]

The road just got a LOT steeper for her though. She'll need something like 80% of the remaining pledged delegates (not including FL and MI) to win the pledged delegate count.

Indeed. Nothing but a handful of small states left (delegate-wise).

[SoxFan562004]

The road just got a LOT steeper for her though. She'll need something like 80% of the remaining pledged delegates (not including FL and MI) to win the pledged delegate count.

Yeah, I just looked around and saw NC has over a 100 delegates (115?) and Indiana has about 70 (72?). I know NC isn't winner take all and assume Indiana isn't either. So Hill's argument of Obama losing momentum or losing the "bigger" states wouldn't be able to be used if she wins Ind. by a small margin (say 5-8%) while Obama blows out NC

[BigSqwert]

Yeah, I just looked around and saw NC has over a 100 delegates (115?) and Indiana has about 70 (72?). I know NC isn't winner take all and assume Indiana isn't either. So Hill's argument of Obama losing momentum or losing the "bigger" states wouldn't be able to be used if she wins Ind. by a small margin (say 5-8%) while Obama blows out NC

Her campaign will then use the logic that NC doesn't really matter. Only the states she wins matter.

 

Sorry. I'll try to keep the anti-Hillary stuff in the other thread.

[HuskyCaucasian]

MSNBC is reporting that there has been a HUGE turn out in HEAVY (75% republican) republican districts. So huge the turn out is bigger than in the 2004 presidential election! No one is really sure how this will work it self out. Might be centrist republicans going to Obama. Could be far right trying to keep "Rev. Wright" out of the White House. no one is sure yet.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Note: If Obama takes NC huge, he will retake the popular vote evan IF you include FL and MI

[SoxFan562004]

MSNBC is reporting that there has been a HUGE turn out in HEAVY (75% republican) republican districts. So huge the turn out is bigger than in the 2004 presidential election! No one is really sure how this will work it self out. Might be centrist republicans going to Obama. Could be far right trying to keep "Rev. Wright" out of the White House. no one is sure yet.

I assume this means Indiana?

 

As to your other post, if he pulls ahead in the popular vote with Fla and Mich counted, it would be really difficult for Hillary to put any sort of positive spin on that since his name wasn't on the ballott in one and he did zero to little campaigning in the other

[HuskyCaucasian]

Indeed. Nothing but a handful of small states left (delegate-wise).

Ok, did the math.

If they take each state by 10%, Clinton then needs 87% to overtake Obama in the pledged delegates.

 

Lets factor in MI and FL.....

If they take today's states by 10%, Clinton then needs 61% to overtake Obama in the pledged delegates.

Now, I dont think they will seat FL and MI 100%. i think in the end they will be seated, but will count as half like the republicans did. So, she would then need 74% of the vote.

[HuskyCaucasian]

I assume this means Indiana?

yes

[HuskyCaucasian]

Unweighed Exit Poll...

Indiana

Obama: 50.5%

Clinton: 49.5%

 

In PA, the vote ended up going 5 points MORE to clinton. So, even with that factored in, She only takes IN by 5.

[mr_genius]

Unweighed Exit Poll...

Indiana

Obama: 50.5%

Clinton: 49.5%

 

In PA, the vote ended up going 5 points MORE to clinton. So, even with that factored in, She only takes IN by 5.

 

I think it will be Clinton by at least 5 in Indiana.

 

I believe Huffingtonpost also predicted Obama to win PA too, and it was way off. The seem to cherry pick this stuff, not really a reputable source.

 

Still no way she is making up the delegate count, which everyone knows. It will be rules fight for Florida and Michigan / super delegate battle. which is lame.

[HuskyCaucasian]

I believe Huffingtonpost also predicted Obama to win PA too, and it was way off. The seem to cherry pick this stuff, not really a reputable source.

I dont think they ever projected him to win PA. They were just reporting the exit polls. A lot of people want to see them, so it's a rush to get them out. They just weren't weighted. They should make that clear that they are NOT weighted.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Exit Poll via MSNBC-

IN

Obama 47.25%

Clinton 52.2%

They SPLIT Men 50-50. Women go to Clinton 54-46.

 

I do not know if these are weighted or unweighed.

Edited May 6, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[HuskyCaucasian]

Clinton spin begins. A supporter just said they were outspent 2 to 1 and they were 15 points behind and won.

Except... well, not! Every poll since March 29th has had Obama +5 at max. The +15 poll they keep referencing was a small poll conducted in the middle of FEBRUARY!

[knightni]

CNN/AOL both have Clinton up by 14-18% in Indiana.

[knightni]

MSNBC is reporting that there has been a HUGE turn out in HEAVY (75% republican) republican districts. So huge the turn out is bigger than in the 2004 presidential election! No one is really sure how this will work it self out. Might be centrist republicans going to Obama. Could be far right trying to keep "Rev. Wright" out of the White House. no one is sure yet.

My aunt and uncle are Republicans and they are voting for Hilary because they believe that McCain would lose to Obama.

[HuskyCaucasian]

MSNBC and CNN calls North Carolina for Obama

[HuskyCaucasian]

N.C. Exit Poll via MSNBC-

Obama 54.86%

Clinton 41.14%

[Balta1701]

CNN/AOL both have Clinton up by 14-18% in Indiana.

Despite that, they haven't called it yet, so presumably that's a strongly biased sample of what's been counted.

 

In PA, they called it with about 10-15% counted because, IIRC, when they looked at the actual results coming in from precincts that were supposed to be strong Obama, his lead wasn't as big in the actual votes as it was in the exit polls, and that's what made them make the call. 17% are in so far, which suggests that the raw data might actually not be as pro-Hillary as the exits suggested if it hasn't been called yet.

[Balta1701]

Did the Chicago area polls close at 6 Central?

[fathom]

Did the Chicago area polls close at 6 Central?

 

Yes

[lostfan]

Despite that, they haven't called it yet, so presumably that's a strongly biased sample of what's been counted.

 

In PA, they called it with about 10-15% counted because, IIRC, when they looked at the actual results coming in from precincts that were supposed to be strong Obama, his lead wasn't as big in the actual votes as it was in the exit polls, and that's what made them make the call. 17% are in so far, which suggests that the raw data might actually not be as pro-Hillary as the exits suggested if it hasn't been called yet.

I'm looking at CNN's map here, and there is nothing from northwest IN yet which right now is assumed to be pro-Obama, and Indianapolis is also 60-40 Obama right now and it's only 20% counted.

[KipWellsFan]

I'm looking at CNN's map here, and there is nothing from northwest IN yet which right now is assumed to be pro-Obama, and Indianapolis is also 60-40 Obama right now and it's only 20% counted.

 

They'll call it for Clinton soon enough.

[Balta1701]

I'm looking at CNN's map here, and there is nothing from northwest IN yet which right now is assumed to be pro-Obama, and Indianapolis is also 60-40 Obama right now and it's only 20% counted.

Well, then, I think the logic is that when they do the math extrapolating the Indy area up to 100%, there's still enough wiggle room that a strong showing from the Region could push it very close. Which is a good sign for BO.

[HuskyCaucasian]

No call on Indiana yet. This HAS to be close. They called Ohio in 30 minutes and that was a 9.2 point win for Clinton.

[Balta1701]

They'll call it for Clinton soon enough.

Probably true...but I'd still live with "Closer than expected in IN" being the result, because it's a delegate fight.