Lets Give Floyd a Standing Ovation

[Steve9347]

Well, I guess if Gavin does well this year, I'll talk to my wife about having a baby with the extra time I'd have (yes, that's a joke).

[CanOfCorn]

I think that Floyd not going for k's and instead letting hitters get themselves out has been one reason why hes doing better.

 

Instead of trying to make perfect pitches, he makes good pitches.

 

I think the White Sox philosophy is to pitch to defense...except for Vazquez. And Floyd has bought into that, or at least that's what it looks like to me.

[RME JICO]

...unless you consider Matsuzaka (#4). His ERA was nearly the same as Trachsel, the lowest rated strikeout pitcher. But yeah, the top dozen or so seem to get the K's and prevent the runs as well. I guess if you can be an elite pitcher, strikeouts are worth your consideration.

 

SFF

There will always be exceptions. Cabrera of the Orioles always had a good K rate and a high ERA, but that is more of an exception than a norm.

[JorgeFabregas]

The talk about Gavin needing more strikeouts reminded me of something I was going to show in a previous thread about the correlation of ERA and strikeouts. Bear with me in the explanation here. This graph is based on the final 2007 stats for every pitcher with at least 100 innings worked. In it, each pitcher is represented from left to right by a dot in order of his strikeout per inning rank. In other words, the dot on the farthest left represents Eric Bedard, who had the highest strikeouts per inning. Now, the vertical axis represents each of these pitcher's ERA. For example, Bedards was 3.16.

 

So, is there a correlation between K's and ERA? If so you should see the line connecting the dots increase (higher ERA) as you move from left to right (lower K rates). As I look at it I can see a *slight* average slope up, but really it is not very regular. There seems very little correlation to me; that you cannot predict ERA based on strikeout ability. What do you all think? By the way, I did a similar graph plotting strikeouts vs. win percentage and it yielded similar (lack of) correlation. Unfortunately, the tables I had to work with did not have WHIP stats, so I could not test that.

 

SFF

Try making a graph correlating K:BB with ERA. That's the issue. You can be a good/great pitcher without a lot of strikeouts (Buehrle), but you better walk very few. Gavin's K:BB is one.

[soxfan3530]

Gavin Floyd you are ridiculous!

[Controlled Chaos]

Yep, just like how we should go through every trade thread and say anyone who liked the Garland trade was stupid or who thought Swisher was a great acquisition was wrong. Of course, people that only comment on what other people have to say never have to worry about old posts being bumped where their opinion on a player was stated.

Since I bumped this...should I assume this was directed at me? I think there's plenty of posts that could be bumped about me...and I loved the Swisher acquisition. I still do...in fact I have never in my life bought an authentic jersey for any player on any team, but I bought Swishers. So if he turns into a total bust...you can get me there.

[Balta1701]

There will always be exceptions. Cabrera of the Orioles always had a good K rate and a high ERA, but that is more of an exception than a norm.

Which is why you need to look at the K/BB ratio also.

 

Here's the simple way to think about it. Assume for a moment that all pitchers have a roughly constant BABIP. They will give up a constant number of hits per times a batter hits a ball. Unless they give up an abnormal number of home runs, then their WHIP, which will translate to ERA, is determined entirely by the number of walks they give up. A pitcher who has a high K rate but also walks a lot loses the benefits of the high K rate. A pitcher with a low K rate who walks almost no one will still be average to above average because he'll keep the number of baserunners low. That's the other think you have to take in to account with K rate.

 

The first obvious complication of that is the Brandon Webb complication. Assuming you have a constant BABIP doesn't work for all pitchers, because movement on your pitches can kill batters who put the ball in play. But to first order, K/BB ratio is going to show you a lot.

[fathom]

Since I bumped this...should I assume this was directed at me? I think there's plenty of posts that could be bumped about me...and I loved the Swisher acquisition. I still do...in fact I have never in my life bought an authentic jersey for any player on any team, but I bought Swishers. So if he turns into a total bust...you can get me there.

 

Nah, it's fine.

[SpringfieldFan]

Try making a graph correlating K:BB with ERA. That's the issue. You can be a good/great pitcher without a lot of strikeouts (Buehrle), but you better walk very few. Gavin's K:BB is one.

 

As you wish:

 

 

The elite stand apart, and there is a general correlation. Buehrle was #25 here by the way.

[chiguy79]

Agreed BA doesn't make that catch...nice work Gavin...keep it up as we will likely need to keep opposing teams to

[witesoxfan]

I don't think the question here really is whether Gavin can be successful with a poor K rate. It's just that teams will eventually start getting hits off of him and that, in turn, will lead to potentially disastrous outings.

 

Seeing him pitch last night, I'd imagine his K rate will begin to improve...some of those pitches were absolutely filthy, especially later in the game. And even though his fastball was 89-92, it had some nice movement on it down and in towards righties. Complimenting that his solid change piece and a filthy curve ball and I think Gavin has #2 potential but more likelihood of being a solid 3-4 starter in the future.

 

And that is why he is my fav.

[WCSox]

I don't think the question here really is whether Gavin can be successful with a poor K rate. It's just that teams will eventually start getting hits off of him and that, in turn, will lead to potentially disastrous outings.

 

Seeing him pitch last night, I'd imagine his K rate will begin to improve...some of those pitches were absolutely filthy, especially later in the game. And even though his fastball was 89-92, it had some nice movement on it down and in towards righties. Complimenting that his solid change piece and a filthy curve ball and I think Gavin has #2 potential but more likelihood of being a solid 3-4 starter in the future.

 

So, in other words, it sounds like he'll be another Jon Garland: A solid, middle-of-the rotation guy who will be really good at times and not so good at others. And he's not even eligible for arbitration until 2010. I'll take it.

 

[southsider2k5]

So, in other words, it sounds like he'll be another Jon Garland: A solid, middle-of-the rotation guy who will be really good at times and not so good at others. And he's not even eligible for arbitration until 2010. I'll take it.

 

In this day and age that is a $15 million a year pitcher. Damned right I will take it.

[JorgeFabregas]

I don't think the question here really is whether Gavin can be successful with a poor K rate. It's just that teams will eventually start getting hits off of him and that, in turn, will lead to potentially disastrous outings.

 

Seeing him pitch last night, I'd imagine his K rate will begin to improve...some of those pitches were absolutely filthy, especially later in the game. And even though his fastball was 89-92, it had some nice movement on it down and in towards righties. Complimenting that his solid change piece and a filthy curve ball and I think Gavin has #2 potential but more likelihood of being a solid 3-4 starter in the future.

 

And that is why he is my fav.

That curve that he got the K on in the 9th was nasty. He wasn't getting his curve over early in the game.

 

So, in other words, it sounds like he'll be another Jon Garland: A solid, middle-of-the rotation guy who will be really good at times and not so good at others. And he's not even eligible for arbitration until 2010. I'll take it.

Jon Garland is what I was thinking as well.

[Steve9347]

I don't think the question here really is whether Gavin can be successful with a poor K rate. It's just that teams will eventually start getting hits off of him and that, in turn, will lead to potentially disastrous outings.

 

Seeing him pitch last night, I'd imagine his K rate will begin to improve...some of those pitches were absolutely filthy, especially later in the game. And even though his fastball was 89-92, it had some nice movement on it down and in towards righties. Complimenting that his solid change piece and a filthy curve ball and I think Gavin has #2 potential but more likelihood of being a solid 3-4 starter in the future.

 

And that is why he is my fav.

Exactly. The guy's got the stuff, I think he eventually as he gets his confidence will raise the k rate and lower the bb rate.

[southsider2k5]

That curve that he got the K on in the 9th was nasty. He wasn't getting his curve over early in the game.

 

 

Jon Garland is what I was thinking as well.

 

That ball was 4-6 inches outside, but I will take it!

[RME JICO]

Which is why you need to look at the K/BB ratio also.

 

Here's the simple way to think about it. Assume for a moment that all pitchers have a roughly constant BABIP. They will give up a constant number of hits per times a batter hits a ball. Unless they give up an abnormal number of home runs, then their WHIP, which will translate to ERA, is determined entirely by the number of walks they give up. A pitcher who has a high K rate but also walks a lot loses the benefits of the high K rate. A pitcher with a low K rate who walks almost no one will still be average to above average because he'll keep the number of baserunners low. That's the other think you have to take in to account with K rate.

 

The first obvious complication of that is the Brandon Webb complication. Assuming you have a constant BABIP doesn't work for all pitchers, because movement on your pitches can kill batters who put the ball in play. But to first order, K/BB ratio is going to show you a lot.

Agreed. See below.

 

You can see the elite K pitchers have an advantage. If you think about it, based on probability, the opposing teams have less of a chance to score when the ball is not put in play. So there has to be some correlation.

 

It would be interesting to see the correlation between K:BB ratio and ERA or TBIP and ERA. I like TBIP the best because it takes into account XBH's which have the higher probability of a run scoring.

[kjshoe04]

Jon Garland is what I was thinking as well.

I really think you're selling Gavin short here. He has stuff that eclipses Jon's by a lot. Garland has only had that one year with an ERA below 4, I think Gavin has the possibility to be between 3.25-4 almost every year if he keeps his head in there and throws strikes.

[hi8is]

FLOYD = MONEY

[Leonard Zelig]

FLOYD = MONEY

 

Get away.

[hi8is]

Get away.

and i thought that i made no sense at times. =P

[fathom]

He'd have to have a 6+ ERA the rest of the way for that to happen. Floyd will of course have his bad games, but I think its a huge stretch to think he'll go from 6 solid starts in 2007, to 6 stellar starts in 2008, to being among the worst pitchers in baseball. Anything is possible, but I'm not betting on winning the lottery either.

 

Up to 3.32...hopefully he does well in his next start in San Fran.

[iamshack]

Up to 3.32...hopefully he does well in his next start in San Fran.

 

Lametown.

[fathom]

Lametown.

 

I agree, bumping threads in early May is lame.