MLB Draft Projections

[SoxFan1]

someone mentioned something about Hicks, but to be honest, at 8 overall, I'd rather get more of a true baseball player than an athlete. Hicks is good and all, but is still very raw.

 

Right now, my big board is something like.

 

1a. Aaron Crow/Brian Matusz, SP

-Okay, odds are that both will be gone in the top 3-5, but if something were to happen where one of them is somehow there at 8, you gotta take them. Highly wishful thinking, but oh well. You can throw Alvarez, Posey and Tim Beckham into this category as well, as something extraordinary would have to happen for them to be available here.

 

1b. Justin Smoak, 1B - South Carolina

-Now this is a bit more realistic. As of now, it is between Smoak and Alonso for the top college 1B spot. I am not that big of a fan of Alonso though, and like Smoak better. I actually hope Alonso goes ahead of Smoak to increase the odds of Smoak being available at no. 8.

 

2. Gordon Beckham, MI - Georgia

-If Smoak is gone, but Alonso is still there, I personally would go a different route. Gordon Beckham provides us with a toolsy shortstop with linedrive power, and potentially a 5 tool threat. There are questions as to whether he would play SS or 2B, but I think he can handle SS just fine.

 

3. Kyle Skipworth, C - California HS

-I'd still avoid Alonso here and go with Skipworth. Skipworth has a nice swing from the leftside and power to all fields. He is similar to Joe Mauer as a hitter but probably has more power potential. He might or might not be able to stick at catcher, but due to the fact he has a canon arm, it is reasonable to think he can.

 

4. Yonder Alonso, 1B - Miami

-Now would be the time I'd personally go with Alonso. I like him, but I don't see a ton of upside with him. However, he'd be one of the safer picks, and should be a good player for a long time. He has arguably the best eye in the draft.

 

5. Eric Hosmer, 1B - Florida HS

-He'd be higher on my list if not for the fact he wants a monster signing bonus in the 7 million range. That is going to push him down similar to Porcello, IMO. However, there isn't much to not like about Hosmer.

 

A reach that I wouldn't entirely mind would be Jemile Weeks, 2B/OF, Miami. I really like him as a potential leadoff hitter.

Thats Rickie Weeks' younger brother, correct?

[BearSox]

Thats Rickie Weeks' younger brother, correct?

yep...

[harfman77]

someone mentioned something about Hicks, but to be honest, at 8 overall, I'd rather get more of a true baseball player than an athlete. Hicks is good and all, but is still very raw.

 

Right now, my big board is something like.

 

1a. Aaron Crow/Brian Matusz, SP

-Okay, odds are that both will be gone in the top 3-5, but if something were to happen where one of them is somehow there at 8, you gotta take them. Highly wishful thinking, but oh well. You can throw Alvarez, Posey and Tim Beckham into this category as well, as something extraordinary would have to happen for them to be available here.

 

1b. Justin Smoak, 1B - South Carolina

-Now this is a bit more realistic. As of now, it is between Smoak and Alonso for the top college 1B spot. I am not that big of a fan of Alonso though, and like Smoak better. I actually hope Alonso goes ahead of Smoak to increase the odds of Smoak being available at no. 8.

 

2. Gordon Beckham, MI - Georgia

-If Smoak is gone, but Alonso is still there, I personally would go a different route. Gordon Beckham provides us with a toolsy shortstop with linedrive power, and potentially a 5 tool threat. There are questions as to whether he would play SS or 2B, but I think he can handle SS just fine.

 

3. Kyle Skipworth, C - California HS

-I'd still avoid Alonso here and go with Skipworth. Skipworth has a nice swing from the leftside and power to all fields. He is similar to Joe Mauer as a hitter but probably has more power potential. He might or might not be able to stick at catcher, but due to the fact he has a canon arm, it is reasonable to think he can.

 

4. Yonder Alonso, 1B - Miami

-Now would be the time I'd personally go with Alonso. I like him, but I don't see a ton of upside with him. However, he'd be one of the safer picks, and should be a good player for a long time. He has arguably the best eye in the draft.

 

5. Eric Hosmer, 1B - Florida HS

-He'd be higher on my list if not for the fact he wants a monster signing bonus in the 7 million range. That is going to push him down similar to Porcello, IMO. However, there isn't much to not like about Hosmer.

 

A reach that I wouldn't entirely mind would be Jemile Weeks, 2B/OF, Miami. I really like him as a potential leadoff hitter.

 

I would move Beckham down to 5, I just really dont like middle infielders at the top of the draft, unless they are the A-Rod or Utley type. Someone unexpected will slip to the Sox, thats the way the draft usually works, or maybe the Sox can find a guy like LaPorta who is not as well thought of, but translates well into pro ball. At this part of the draft you need to find a potential cornerstone for your franchise offensively or a potential ace pitcher. Ceiling should definitely be the emphasis because any player this early in the draft should have a pretty high porch to start from.

[BearSox]

I think this year's Matt Laporta will be Wallace.

[YASNY]

From Phil Rogers:

 

Arizona State first baseman/third baseman Brett Wallace is high on the White Sox's radar, but it's unclear if they like him enough for the eighth pick overall. This much is clear—the Sox are more likely to take a bat than an arm with their first top-10 pick since 1990. …

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

I would love to see the Sox take a catcher in the first round.

 

AJ isn't going to live forever. A catcher who you know is going to start one day soon should be one of their priorities.

[flavum]

AJ isn't going to live forever. A catcher who you know is going to start one day soon should be one of their priorities.

 

I agree a catcher should be on their list of needs. Not sure if Jason Castro is worthy of a top 10 pick. I just have a feeling they're either going to get Gordon Beckham or Brett Wallace.

 

 

 

[BearSox]

Here's my projected 1st round mock draft:

 

01. Tampa Bay Rays: C Buster Posey, Florida St.

02. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1B/3B Pedro Alvarez, Vanderbilt

03. Kansas City Royals: SS Tim Beckham, HS (Georgia)

04. Baltimore Orioles: LHSP Brian Matusz, San Diego

05. San Francisco Giants: MI Gordon Beckham, Georgia

06. Florida Marlins: C/? Kyle Skipworth, HS (California)

07. Cincinnati Reds: RHSP Aaron Crow, Missouri

08. Chicago White Sox: 1B Justin Smoak, So. Carolina

09. Washington Nationals: 1B/3B Brett Wallace, Arizona St.

10. Houston Astros: RHSP Shooter Hunt, Tulane

11. Texas Rangers: LHSP Christian Friedrich, Eastern Kentucky

12. Oakland Athletics: 1B Yonder Alonso, Miami

13. St. Louis Cardinals: RHSP Tim Melville, HS (Missouri)

14. Minnesota Twins: OF/RHP Aaron Hicks, HS (California)

15. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP/3B Ethan Martin, HS (Georgia)

16. Milwaukee Brewers: CL Josh Fields, Georgia

17. Toronto Blue Jays: C/? Brett Lawrie, HS (Canada)

18. New York Mets: OF Zach Collier, HS (California)

19. Chicago Cubs: RHSP Jake Odorizzi, HS (Illinois)

20. Seattle Mariners: 1B David Cooper, California

21. Detroit Tigers: 1B Eric Hosmer, HS (Florida)

22. New York Mets: RHSP Zach Putnam, Michigan

23. San Diego Padres: OF/1B Ike Davis, Arizona St.

24. Philadelphia Phillies: 3B/SS Reese Havens. So. Carolina

25. Colorado Rockies: RHSP Gerrit Cole, HS (California)

26. Arizona Diamondbacks: CL Andrew Cashner, Texas Christian University

27. Minnesota Twins: 3B Conor Gillaspie, Wichita St.

28. New York Yankees: LHSP Kyle Lobstein, HS (Arizona)

29. Cleveland Indians: RHP Ryan Perry, Arizona

30. Boston Red Sox: C Jason Castro, Stanford

[JohnCangelosi]

What really gets me is the fact that if we just decided to pack it in during the last week of '07 we could have the top pick and whoever we wanted...

[YASNY]

What really gets me is the fact that if we just decided to pack it in during the last week of '07 we could have the top pick and whoever we wanted...

 

I don't want my team to ever 'pack it in'. Regardless.

[BearSox]

I don't want my team to ever 'pack it in'. Regardless.

If it helps out the team in the long run (ie getting a better draft pick), I really don't care if they pack it in. It's not like we had a team of mainly rookies and young players, and hoping they progress and win. We had a team of mainly old vets who sucked.

[YASNY]

If it helps out the team in the long run (ie getting a better draft pick), I really don't care if they pack it in. It's not like we had a team of mainly rookies and young players, and hoping they progress and win. We had a team of mainly old vets who sucked.

 

Sorry, but if they ever pack it in, they should be packed away and shipped off.

[flavum]

I think in baseball you try to win no matter what, and let the draft order fall into place. There's no sure thing anyway.

 

The best teams draft the best throughout the first 10-20 rounds, and hope to get a surprise after that.

[Flash Tizzle]

I think in baseball you try to win no matter what, and let the draft order fall into place. There's no sure thing anyway.

 

The best teams draft the best throughout the first 10-20 rounds, and hope to get a surprise after that.

How many of us looked at the end of last season was, everything else equal, which scenario most benefited our future -- losing or winning?

 

Nothing would have changed with three additional losses (I'm sure what happened in the offseason still occurs with a 69 win White Sox team), yet it's possible we could have selected as high as #3, low as #5 in the draft. Selecting #8 isn't bad-- and in fact we're lucky that everything fell our way the last week of the season to fall in the Top 10. At this point it's not much of an issue. It'll be a failure IMO if ANY person drafted after us in the first round eventually becomes a better player than our selection. I don't even care if it's someone such as Poreda with one pitch, or someone who's injured, that wildly exceeds expectations. It's so crucial for the success of our franchise to draft an instant stud. Whether to help our ballclub on the field, or through a trade.

 

There should be jobs on the line this draft. We're not working in the 20's, anymore. If we're overdrafting someone (which shouldn't even be an issue considering the space between our 1st and 2nd pick) or receiving poor recommendations from scouts, then there should be more companions for Dave Wilder and his buddies from Latin America.

Edited May 18, 2008 by Flash Tizzle

[Palehosefan]

I think it's critical for us just to even find a MLB player that sticks

around with our 1st round pick. Our 1st round picks over the past 10 years have

been horrendous.

 

2007: Poreda is way to early to pass judgement, I actually like the pick.

2006: Kyle McCulloch, 23 year old putting up decent numbers in AA

2005: Lance Broadway, will be 25 in August, pitching well in AAA, solid.

2004: Josh Fields, 25 year old struggling in AAA, decent.

Tyler Lumsden, struggling in minors

Gio Gonzalez, struggling in AAA but good prospect

2003: Brian Anderson, who knows what to expect.

2002: Royce Ring, seems to be a AAAA reliever.

2001: Kris Honel, never materialized

Wyatt Allen, never materialized

2000: Joe Borchard, hold in swing never fixed, minor leaguer again.

1999: Jason Stumm, never materialized

Matt Ginter, borderline MLB pitcher

1998: Kip Wells, mediocre MLB career, career 4.6 ERA

1997: Jason Dellaero, yikes.

 

 

I'm really hoping the scouting changes lately will make a big difference, as this is our best draft position in many many years, can't screw it up.

[DBAHO]

Here are some opinions from John Sickels;

 

Here is a look at my current draft board. THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION OR PROJECTION OF THE FIRST ROUND. This is my current personal opinion of these players. This will continue to change as we approach draft day and some players are already ranked differently compared to the lists I've been doing this past week.

 

1) Buster Posey, C, Florida State: Great bat, has proven to be solid defender.

2) Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS: Overall tools package.

3) Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS: Hits, fields, and intuition loves him.

4) Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: Love him almost as much as Posey.

5) Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Best college bat but not as valuable defensively as Posey and Beckham.

6) Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri: Stock has dropped just a hair but still looks great to me.

7) Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego: Could easily flip with Crow.

8) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt: Injury knocks him back a couple of notches but still elite.

9) Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS: All reports look great. Signability?

10) Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami: Another bat impossible not to love.

11) Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State (ASSUMES GOOD HEALTH REPORTS): I loved him before he got hurt, not sure how to rank him now.

12) Aaron Hicks, OF-RHP, California HS: Hitter or pitcher? Either way I think I'd rank him here.

13) Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky: A safe solid pick.

14) Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia: Great stuff, could move quickly, affordable.

15) Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane: Great stuff, command is an issue.

16) Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS: I'm assuming he will get drafted as a pitcher.

17) Bret Wallace, 3B-1B, Arizona State: Patience and power.

18) Ike Davis, OF, Arizona State: I rated him a bit ahead of Wallace before and they could flip flop again.

19) Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami: Not sure he will have an impact bat like these other guys but all-around talent keeps him in the middle of the round.

20) Andrew Cashner, RHP, TCU: Closer prospect has risen rapidly. Could move up further.

21) Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS: Opinions are starting to shift about this guy, some rate him in the top 15 still, others have him dropping out of the Top 30 altogether. I don't know what to think.

22) Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina: Love the bat, though I expect him to move to third.

23) Zach Putnam, RHP, Michigan: I seem to like him more than other people do.

24) Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Arizona HS: My opinion of him is rising but signability looks like a problem.

25) Eric Thames, OF, Pepperdine: I buy into the bat improvement.

26) David Cooper, 1B, California: Another power bat that should do well in pro ball.

27) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Illinois HS: I was thinking about him as a second rounder but stock has risen dramatically lately and the more I study the more I like him.

28) Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona: Power arm, erratic but a high ceiling.

29) Isaac Galloway, OF, California HS: Another guy I like more than other people it seems. Is he getting nitpicked?

30) Jason Castro, C, Stanford: I'm not 100% convinced about the bat yet.

 

Here is my take on the top high school hitters of the 2008 draft. Note: I haven't seen these guys in person, so am relying on scouting reports, video, and intuition. High school stats are even more meaningless than college stats, so there isn't much that can be done with objective analysis.

 

I'm not overly impressed with high school hitting depth this year, though there are some interesting raw tools outfielders about. As I see it, the Elite Three are Beckham, Skipworth, and Hosmer, with the other guys a cut below.

 

1) Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS: Still rated as the best overall position player in the draft according to everything I've heard or read. Excellent tools, will be able to remain at shortstop, main question is present power but has plenty of projection, more polish than the other guys except perhaps Skipworth. 6-1, 180, righthanded hitter.

 

2) Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS: Best high school catcher since Joe Mauer, features power from the left side, strong arm, still needs to add some polish to his defense but he will remain at catcher and be a good one. I like him better than anyone else except Beckham, given that catchers who can both hit and field are hard to find. Won't make it out of the Top Ten on draft day and possibly not the Top Five. 6-3, 190, lefty hitter. My intuition loves him.

 

3) Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS: Complete hitting package, features power and plate discipline, good glove at first base, should advance rapidly up the ladder. Main negative is Scott Boras, rumored to be asking for a $7 million package and a major league contract. I don't think I would give that to a high school first baseman unless his name was Lou Gehrig. 6-3, 210, lefty hitter.

 

Jordan Danks, OF, Texas: Hitting .317/.443/.532 with 14 steals, 38 walks, 38 strikeouts in 186 at-bats, OPS about +24 percent compared to context. People keep expecting him to hit for power given his frame and strength, but even if it doesn't happen, his speed, defense, and on-base ability should get him to the Show. I have him as a second-round target for my Shadow Twins.

 

Here's my take on the top college pitchers in the 2008 draft.

 

This class isn't particularly impressive and doesn't have as much depth as some past groups, but there are some reasonable options here especially for teams in the middle and later part of the first round.

 

Some tentative rankings:

 

1) Aaron Crow, RHP, University of Missouri: 10-0, 3.08 ERA with 92/24 K/BB ratio in 76 innings, 66 hits allowed. The talk of college baseball early in the season due to his long scoreless inning streak, but he's been hit around a bit lately. Still a certain lock on the Top Ten and most likely in the Top Five. Throws hard, mid-90s command is usually there, good slider and changeup, has done very well at a high level of competition and in a league (Big 12) that's good for hitting. I like him a hair better than Matusz but that may be Midwest bias talking. Some scouts have concern about Crow's arm action and delivery, but as long as he repeats his delivery consistently, I don't think his injury risk is massively higher than anyone else's.

 

2) Brian Matusz, LHP, University of San Diego: 9-2, 2.03 ERA with 108/20 K/BB in 79.2 innings, 68 hits allowed. Raw stats are better than Crow's now, but he pitches in a friendlier context for pitchers. Big guy, throws hard for a lefty, great command, nothing not to like here. It's very close between the two.

 

3) Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State University: 8-2, 2.93 ERA with 109/34 K/BB in 70.2 innings, 54 hits allowed. He's made huge progress refining his talent this year, and pitching in a context with a composite ERA well over 5.00. He still has some work to do with his command, but I think he has a shot to be an outstanding pitcher, and I've had fleeting thoughts of ranking him first overall ahead of Crow and Matusz. I like the fact that he is a great athlete with a reasonably fresh arm in particular.

 

Here is how I rank the top college hitters for the 2008 draft, as of May 6th. I'm looking at the stats and trying to make a contextual adjustment for comparison purposes, as well as scouting reports, TV and video, intuition, etc.

 

1) Pedro Alvarez,3B, Vanderbilt: Hitting .294/.400/.471 in 24 games, his OPS is approximately +10 percent compared to context. Obviously this is much below expectation and his previous standards, however the injury is the main factor here. Scouts are cutting him slack and he's still expected to go in the Top Five overall, and at this point I don't see any reason to override consensus given his track record.

 

2) Buster Posey, C, Florida State: HItting .464/.562/.827, OPS is about +63 percent better than context. Posey's stock is rising due to his tremendous hitting this year as well as the fact that he's proven to be a reasonable-enough defender behind the plate. Ranking him ahead of Smoak and Alonso may be a bit controversial but he's done everything asked of him and finding a catcher who can hit and field is harder than finding a first baseman who can hit.

 

3) Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: Hitting .412/.524/.874, OPS is about +79 percent better than context. Has also stolen 16 bases in 17 attempts, producing power, plate discipline, etc., and he can play shortstop. Some people compare him to Khalil Greene, others say he'll hit better than that. Again, this might be controversial ranking him ahead of Smoak and maybe I'll change my mind.

 

4) Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Hitting .401/.515/.808, 19 homers, 44 walks, OPS about +64 compared to context. I have loved Smoak's bat since high school...power, plate discipline, switch hitter, good glove. I could see him possibly developing into a Lance Berkman-type hitter if all goes well. Smoak fights expectations sometimes, but I think that's because people have been watching him for so long that he gets nitpicked. Yesterday I had him ahead of Posey and Beckham, and I might go back to that again.

 

5) Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami: HItting .384/.550/.775 with 53 walks, OPS about +62 percent compared to context. Like Smoak, I love the bat here. He might not offer quite as much raw power, but it should be enough and his plate discipline and relative performance is just as good.

 

I'm actually leaning towards really wanting Kyle Skipworth at this point.

[BearSox]

Right now, I'd prefer Crow over everyone. I'm a sucker for pitching, and something about a mid-high 90's fastball with good movement (in on righties, tailing away from lefties) and a hard power slider, to go along with a fairly decent change get me all fuzzy inside. He has the potential to be an ace, and worst case scenario, he can become a very good SU/CL with his arsenal.

 

The only downside of picking him is that we are kinda stocked at pitcher. I believe Poreda's future is the pen, but even so, we have Vazquez, Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, Contreras (hopefully he's traded when his value is high, I'm still not sold on him), Broadway, and Egbert.

 

If Crow is gone however, Smoak would be the main target, IMO. Skipworth, by what it sounds like, there is no chance of him sliding beyond the Marlins. Apparently, they love him.

[BearSox]

That is FAR from the worst case scenario. There is no way you have seen Crow for more than 20 IP, if any. How can you make such a statement like that when A.)The player has never pitched in professional baseball B ).You have never seen the player play.

 

Okay, I lied, worst case scenario is that he fails miserably and is out of baseball in 5 years. But if he fails as a starter, he has the potential to become a very good SU/CL with his arsenal. I haven't seen him a ton, but from what I have seen is that his stuff is legit. I was looking at it in the spectrum of him succeeding and making the bigs.

Edited May 19, 2008 by BearSox

[southsideirish71]

Okay, I lied, worst case scenario is that he fails miserably and is out of baseball in 5 years. But if he fails as a starter, he has the potential to become a very good SU/CL with his arsenal. I haven't seen him a ton, but from what I have seen is that his stuff is legit. I was looking at it in the spectrum of him succeeding and making the bigs.

 

Our system is devoid of positional prospects. Your number 8 overall pick better be a top of the line rotation starter if you pick them there. We need to get the best available hitting talent at number 8.

 

 

 

 

[nitetrain8601]

Name: Tanner Scheppers

Height/Weight: 6-4 / 200

Date of Birth: 1/17/87

School: Fresno State

Brewerfan.net Rank: 6

 

Scheppers is a tall and projectable right-handed pitcher with long, wiry strong limbs that continues to add strength to his body. He has picture perfect proportions and is built like a prototypical staff ace with the stuff to match. He can pump his fastball in the mid-90s, touching 97 and sitting in the 93-95 range comfortably. His best pitch may be an electric slider that has been clocked in the 85-87 range, which when he's throwing as well as he can he's virtually unhittable. He also throws a curveball and a changeup, but isn't as comfortable with either pitch, but for the most part doesn't need them to be as sharp when his fastball and slider are working for him. He has soared up draft charts after impressing scouts last fall with his velocity, carryinig that success over to the spring, and is a legitimate candidate to go among the top 5-10 overall picks.

 

I kinda like him better than Crow and I was on Crow's bandwagon since the beginning of the season.

[Wanne]

Just a little update on Wallace:

 

The 2007 Pac-10 Player of the Year is hitting .409 with 19 homers and 77 RBI and has chance to repeat as conference triple crown champion. No one has accomplished that going back to 1978.

 

Last year he hit .404 with 16 homers and 78 RBI in 63 games last year.

 

Kind of hard to ignore those kind of numbers........

[BearSox]

Name: Tanner Scheppers

Height/Weight: 6-4 / 200

Date of Birth: 1/17/87

School: Fresno State

Brewerfan.net Rank: 6

 

Scheppers is a tall and projectable right-handed pitcher with long, wiry strong limbs that continues to add strength to his body. He has picture perfect proportions and is built like a prototypical staff ace with the stuff to match. He can pump his fastball in the mid-90s, touching 97 and sitting in the 93-95 range comfortably. His best pitch may be an electric slider that has been clocked in the 85-87 range, which when he's throwing as well as he can he's virtually unhittable. He also throws a curveball and a changeup, but isn't as comfortable with either pitch, but for the most part doesn't need them to be as sharp when his fastball and slider are working for him. He has soared up draft charts after impressing scouts last fall with his velocity, carryinig that success over to the spring, and is a legitimate candidate to go among the top 5-10 overall picks.

 

I kinda like him better than Crow and I was on Crow's bandwagon since the beginning of the season.

He might not even be a first rounder anymore due to the fact he's out with a stress facture in his shoulder. No way do you take him at 8 now.

[Flash Tizzle]

He might not even be a first rounder anymore due to the fact he's out with a stress facture in his shoulder. No way do you take him at 8 now.

It's situations like this I'd love to have an additional first round pick. He'll be this years Joe Savery and Andrew Brackman -- good arms with injury issues who dropped quite a bit in value, but were still selected by someone in the latter half of the first 1st round.

Edited May 19, 2008 by Flash Tizzle