Time to extend CQ?

[Balta1701]

A thought that has come to my head lately...Right now, a lot of very intelligent teams operating within a budget are ponying up fairly reasonable amounts of cash to guys with 1-2 years or less of MLB service time, and in return are buying out those players' peak years, and usually a year or two of free agency for them.

 

For example...

Evan Longoria, 3b, Tampa Bay, signed 6 year deal with 2 option years, first 6 years worth $17 million, both options together can bring it to $44 million. With basically no MLB Service time.

Ryan Braun just yesterday signed an 8 year, $45 million deal with 1 year of MLB Service time.

Hanley Ramirez, with 2 years or so of service time, just signed a 6 year, $70 million extension.

 

Right now, we're holding the AL Leader in home runs and OPS out in Left Field. He looks good enough to hold on to that position for years if he's healthy. He's on paper going to only make $400,000 this year and next year and then has 3 arbitration years.

 

Isn't it time to sit down and try to sign CQ to a 6-7 year deal, somewhere in the neighborhood of the money given to those other guys? Buy out a year or two of his FA, give him some money early, gain the Sox some additional cost certainty, and avoid the messes that come with the team forcibly renewing a stud player's contract (i.e. Prince Fielder last offseason) or dragging each other through a nasty arbitration hearing. I think this would be a very rational move.

 

So, do you like the idea? If so, let's hear years and numbers. I think Braun was 1 year behind CQ and Ramirez was 1 year ahead of CQ in terms of where they are in relation to FA, but someone can correct me on that if they can find the service time numbers for other teams.

[rangercal]

8 years-40 Mil DO IT

[Balta1701]

8 years-40 Mil DO IT

With where he is in relation to FA, I don't think that's a fair amount of $. For 8 years, with a guy who's only 5 years away from FA, you'd have to go to Hanley money. 8 years, $70 million guaranteed, I might see as more fair, that's a hell of a team discount, but that's a hell of a lot of injury insurance also.

[whitesoxfan101]

I don't like doing things such as this as early as CQ is into the game, but his pedigree (1st round pick despite having had tommy john surgery before the draft, all world player in high school and college against high level opponents, .953 lifetime OPS in the minors) says that this start isn't a fluke at all. The one concern with Q is health, since he's already had two major injuries (partially torn left labrum, tommy john surgery), but if he stays healthy I'd be surprised if he isn't a 900 type OPS player consistently, if not closer to 950. With that in mind, I'd say do it. I'm not sure what the price would be, but if he stays healthy and does what he's capable of, the deal will be a super bargain in a few years and having a really good player happy financially is a plus.

Edited May 15, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[Wanne]

Right now, we're holding the AL Leader in home runs and OPS out in Left Field. He looks good enough to hold on to that position for years if he's healthy. He's on paper going to only make $400,000 this year and next year and then has 3 arbitration years.

 

Isn't it time to sit down and try to sign CQ to a 6-7 year deal, somewhere in the neighborhood of the money given to those other guys? Buy out a year or two of his FA, give him some money early, gain the Sox some additional cost certainty, and avoid the messes that come with the team forcibly renewing a stud player's contract (i.e. Prince Fielder last offseason) or dragging each other through a nasty arbitration hearing. I think this would be a very rational move.

 

So, do you like the idea? If so, let's hear years and numbers. I think Braun was 1 year behind CQ and Ramirez was 1 year ahead of CQ in terms of where they are in relation to FA, but someone can correct me on that if they can find the service time numbers for other teams.

 

I love the move...but it's still just a tad bit premature IMO. I'd like to see him go through a full season before this happens. The injury history has to be a minor concern in the back of Kenny's mind. He looks completely healthy now...but let's see him go a whole season. Next year would be fine in my book. Just my 2¢.

[whitesoxfan101]

With where he is in relation to FA, I don't think that's a fair amount of $. For 8 years, with a guy who's only 5 years away from FA, you'd have to go to Hanley money. 8 years, $70 million guaranteed, I might see as more fair, that's a hell of a team discount, but that's a hell of a lot of injury insurance also.

 

He hasn't earned Hanley type money, Hanley is the best player in baseball right now and this is his 3rd year doing what he does in the majors. I think if we head towards the middle (8/55), your more likely where he would cost.

Edited May 15, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[rangercal]

With where he is in relation to FA, I don't think that's a fair amount of $. For 8 years, with a guy who's only 5 years away from FA, you'd have to go to Hanley money. 8 years, $70 million guaranteed, I might see as more fair, that's a hell of a team discount, but that's a hell of a lot of injury insurance also.

Considering Braun got 8 Years/ 45 Mil

 

Braun proved himself over the course of almost a full season last year and for the same timespan Q has this year.

Q is a lot less proven, may be injury prone and plays a less valuable position 3b>>LF. Of course Q will likely be our future rightfielder. Still, 3b>RF. If Kenny waits until the end of the year Q will probably command a pricetag of 8 years 50-60 mil imo (given Q keeps up his current pace).

Edited May 15, 2008 by rangercal

[whitesoxfan101]

Considering Braun got 8 Years/ 45 Mil

 

Braun proved himself over the course of almost a full season last year and so for the same timespan Q has this year.

Q is a lot less proven and plays a less valuable position 3b>>LF. Of course Q will likely be our future rightfielder. Still, 3b>RF. If Kenny waits until the end of the year Q will probably command a pricetag of 8 years 50-60 mil imo (given Q keeps up his current pace).

 

Good point on Braun, but he's an AWFUL defender with no true position right now which hurts his cause, plus I think he could have got significantly more money if he had been a harder bargain.

Edited May 15, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[flavum]

Too soon to sign Quentin long-term. The shoulder injury is a concern still, so I think they'll wait until at least the middle of 2009.

[G&T]

Considering Braun got 8 Years/ 45 Mil

 

Braun proved himself over the course of almost a full season last year and for the same timespan Q has this year.

Q is a lot less proven, may be injury prone and plays a less valuable position 3b>>LF. Of course Q will likely be our future rightfielder. Still, 3b>RF. If Kenny waits until the end of the year Q will probably command a pricetag of 8 years 50-60 mil imo (given Q keeps up his current pace).

 

Braun is basically a left fielder now. I doubt he will ever play anywhere else and Quentin is a better defensive player than Braun. But looking at Braun's number last year...that's crazy what he did. The rest I agree with.

[rangercal]

Good point on Braun, but he's an AWFUL defender with no true position right now which hurts his cause, plus I think he could have got significantly more money if he had been a harder bargain.

He is awful on defense. I also think the fact that he does not draw walks will eventually catch up on him , pitchers might be a little more cautious with their pitch selection.

[WCSox]

Too soon to sign Quentin long-term. The shoulder injury is a concern still, so I think they'll wait until at least the middle of 2009.

 

Agreed. They would be nuts to sign a guy to a $40+ million deal based on six weeks of baseball. Especially somebody with his injury history.

 

Also agreed that the middle of next year is when I'd consider it.

 

[Steve9347]

Yes, follow suit with these other clubs and sign CQ until he's f***ing 31/32. Make it happen.

[Balta1701]

Agreed. They would be nuts to sign a guy to a $40+ million deal based on six weeks of baseball. Especially somebody with his injury history.

 

Also agreed that the middle of next year is when I'd consider it.

The thing pushing the other way though is...every year you wait, the total cost of the deal and the cost per year are going to go up.

 

CQ is Pre-arb for this year and next year. If he went through arbitration every year, here's sort of what I think his max might be:

 

$400k

$400k

$8 mil

$12 mil

$15 mil

 

(Assume he keeps up this sort of 40 home run, 120 RBI, dominating the league pace).

 

That's $36 million or so counting this year. The longer you wait for him to prove to you he's healthy, the closer he gets to that payday and the less reason he has to sign for anything less than big time money.

[soxfan3530]

He is awful on defense. I also think the fact that he does not draw walks will eventually catch up on him , pitchers might be a little more cautious with their pitch selection.

He may not be the best fielder but he gave the Brewers a huge discount. If Carlos would be willing to except a deal in that neighborhood i would be all over it if im the sox.

[Jordan4life_2007]

LOL. The CQ love has got to stop. I've been posting here since 2003 and I've never seen an entire board orgasm at the very mention of a guy's name. Q has been outstanding. But we're a month and a half into a six month season. Let's see if the guy does it for an entire year before we start talking about Hanley Ramirez type contract extensions.

 

Another thing, does Greg Walker get any type of credit for Q's start? He sure does get the blame when a future HOF starts sucking.

Edited May 15, 2008 by Jordan4life

[JorgeFabregas]

LOL. The CQ love has got to stop. I've been posting here since 2003 and I've never seen an entire board orgasm at the very mention of a guy's name. Q has been outstanding. But we're a month and half into a six month season. Let's see if the guy does it for an entire year before we start talking about Hanley Ramirez type contract extensions.

 

Another thing, does Greg Walker get any type of credit for Q's start? He sure does get the blame when a future HOF starts sucking.

We certainly haven't had a young player perform this way out of the gate since 2003. There's a reason you haven't seen that reaction before.

[rangercal]

We certainly haven't had a young player perform this way out of the gate since 2003. There's a reason you haven't seen that reaction before.

It's been a while. I guess I was a excited over josh fields last year, not like this though. Carlos Lee and Magglio Ordonez are the last 2 that come to mind for me.

[whitesoxfan101]

LOL. The CQ love has got to stop. I've been posting here since 2003 and I've never seen an entire board orgasm at the very mention of a guy's name. Q has been outstanding. But we're a month and half into a six month season. Let's see if the guy does it for an entire year before we start talking about Hanley Ramirez type contract extensions.

 

Another thing, does Greg Walker get any type of credit for Q's start? He sure does get the blame when a future HOF starts sucking.

 

Well, we probably haven't had a good, young power hitter come up and make an immediate impact like this for us since Paulie (and to a lesser extent, Carlos Lee) in 1999. Obviously, you could include Josh last year as well, but heck, he's on the AAA DL now. Anyways, none of the above started anywhere near as on fire as Q has been. So, to be fair, this is a new thing for us.

Edited May 15, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[Balta1701]

Well, we probably haven't had a good, young power hitter come up and make an immediate impact like this for us since Paulie (and to a lesser extent, Carlos Lee) in 1999, and neither started anywhere near as on fire as Q has been. So, to be fair, this is a new thing for us.

And just in terms of contract issues, like why I opened this thread...the market right now is pretty darn different from what it was 8 years ago, and so one should certainly take that in to account when managing the money.

 

We saw a couple solid examples of what happens with players who you don't lock up early with Mags and CLee. One walked out of here for nothing after burning every bridge possible, one was traded for well below his value in order to clear salary space and then signed somewhere else for 6/$100.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I'm not saying it's a bad thing to be excited. I'm very excited about what he's done and his overall potential. Just trying to keep things in perspective. I just hope everybody is as enthusiastic (I may have spelled that wrong) if/when he hits a slump.

[whitesoxfan101]

And just in terms of contract issues, like why I opened this thread...the market right now is pretty darn different from what it was 8 years ago, and so one should certainly take that in to account when managing the money.

 

We saw a couple solid examples of what happens with players who you don't lock up early with Mags and CLee. One walked out of here for nothing after burning every bridge possible, one was traded for well below his value in order to clear salary space and then signed somewhere else for 6/$100.

 

Slightly off topic, but the Carlos Lee trade is one of the more fascinating moves I've ever seen us make. In terms of market talent value, we were ripped off at an epic level in that trade. However, Pods was a catalyst and one of the big reasons for the 2005 World Championship, and Vizcaino was a valuable, rubber arm type guy that ate innings in that pen for large portions of that season. After 2005? We got almost nothing out of either of them (Luis was gone actually), while C Lee continues to produce for other teams. So talentwise, we were hosed bad in that trade, but it was a big reason we won it all in 2005 so it was worth it. Just fun to look at a move like that.

Edited May 15, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[klaus kinski]

Imagine if the LF would have gone to Fields-got to think KW was really on top of this

[rangercal]

Slightly off topic, but the Carlos Lee trade is one of the more fascinating moves I've ever seen us make. In terms of market talent value, we were ripped off at an epic level in that trade. However, Pods was a catalyst and one of the big reasons for the 2005 World Championship, and Vizcaino was a valuable, rubber arm type guy that ate innings in that pen for large portions of that season. After 2005? We got almost nothing out of either of them (Luis was gone actually), while C Lee continues to produce for other teams. So talentwise, we were hosed bad in that trade, but it was a big reason we won it all in 2005 so it was worth it. Just fun to look at a move like that.

 

I'm still fine with the CLEE trade to this day for obious reasons. We probably would have lost him (after 2006) anyway.

[whitesoxfan101]

I'm still fine with the CLEE trade to this day for obious reasons. We probably would have lost him (after 2006) anyway.

 

The other fascinating part of that move is we could have receiving a much better player as the main guy than Pods and NOT won it all in 2005 because that person wouldn't have been able to lead off. I compare the move to the Darko Milicic draft pick in a way, since it was also a bad move talentwise (for Detroit), but if they hadn't done it that way, they never trade for Rasheed Wallace and likely never have the run they are having right now, and certainly don't win the title in 2003-2004.

Edited May 15, 2008 by whitesoxfan101