Draft Question

[DaTank]

I'm not much of a draft guru so I have come to all draft knowledgeable SoxTalk members with some questions I have for the '08 draft. My question is: why does it seem the Sox have little interest in Justin Smoak out of South Carolina? In a few mock drafts I have seen, they have the Sox taking Gordon Beckham. It just doesn't make as much sense to me to take a SS, even if O-Cab and Uribe left after this season. They have Ramirez, Ozuna, Richar, Getz (if he is ready), free agency, and later rounds in the draft. Smoak reminds me so much of Mark Teixeira and someone like that is hard to pass up. Power-hitting switch-hitters are very rare. With Thome probably retiring after the '09 season it makes sense to take a 1B and put him at 1B in '10 and Konerko to DH. Who do you all think is the best option in the draft for the Sox?

Edited May 22, 2008 by jenks45monster

[ChiSox_Sonix]

I'm not much of a draft guru so I have come to all draft knowledgeable SoxTalk members with some questions I have for the '08 draft. My question is: why does it seem the Sox have little interest in Justin Smoak out of South Carolina? In a few mock drafts I have seen, they have the Sox taking Gordon Beckham. It just doesn't make as much sense to me to take a SS, even if O-Cab and Uribe left after this season. They have Ramirez, Ozuna, Richar, Getz (if he is ready), free agency, and later rounds in the draft. Smoak reminds me so much of Mark Teixeira and someone like that is hard to pass up. Power-hitting switch-hitters are very rare. With Thome probably retiring after the '09 season it makes sense to take a 1B and put him at 1B in '10 and Konerko to DH. Who do you all think is the best option in the draft for the Sox?

 

Toolsy shortstops like Beckham are much, much, much rarer than a 1B who projects like Smoak. Keep in mind a lot of 1B can start off as 3B, catchers, or corner outfielders and end up at 1B too. Basically, if confronted with a scenario where they are the 2 best players left on the board, you should take Beckham b/c SS like him are much harder to find than 1B like Smoak.

 

Also, when drafting, our current situation at the respective positions (or any position for the matter) should rarely affect a draft choice. This isnt like the NFL/NBA draft.

Edited May 21, 2008 by ChiSox_Sonix

[BearSox]

Switch-hitting firstbasemen with 35-40 homerun power and solid D aren't all that easy to come by...

[flavum]

If Smoak is still out there at 8, I hope the Sox take him. If he goes to the minors for a year or two, he'll be ready when Konerko is gone or moved to DH.

 

In my opinion, we're going to see less and less true power hitters as MLB gets away from HGH. We've seen power number go down drastically over the last two seasons.

 

I think a switch-hitting power hitter not named Joe Borchard, would be awesome.

[daa84]

ive seen gordon play for the diamond dogs and justin play for the gamecocks each about 6 times, and i would have a few questions about gordon beckhams tools translating to the pro game (dont confuse him with tim beckham)...hes really small and i read a report that said he might not stick at SS and might have to move to 2nd or 3rd...Smoak on the other hand has just a beautiful natural power stroke and hes enormous...no questions there for me...

Edited May 21, 2008 by daa84

[BearSox]

another thing to add about Smoak... he's not an all or nothing guy either. While College numbers are not all that great to use, he has shown that he can work the count and take a walk, and won't K like crazy. From what I have heard from people who watch Smoak regularly, he is very good at working the count. He'll likely K no more than your average middle of the order power hitter, but hell probably have his walk total pretty high as well... this is if he develops although, which is never a given for any prospect.

Edited May 21, 2008 by BearSox

[Palehosefan]

My preference right now is.

 

1. Buster Posey

2. Justin Smoak

3. Kyle Skipworth

4. Yonder Alonso

 

 

I'm just really hoping we don't see one final California reach like Stanford catcher Jason Castro.

 

It's really hard to find faults with Justin Smoak. Watching him sometimes you feel that he's too good to be true. Great size, beautiful stroke, gold glove defense, and is a solid teammate. I think he's the most can't miss player in the draft, right up there with Alvarez.

Edited May 22, 2008 by Palehosefan

[BearSox]

I actually think there are more questions with Alvarez than there are with Smoak... but conversely, there is more upside presented with Alvarez as well.

[DBAHO]

If either Posey or Skipworth falls to #8, that's the route I would go.

 

Smoak or Brian Matusz as the backup options.

[dasox24]

I absolutely love Smoak, so that's who I picked. I really don't think Posey or Skipworth will be around when we pick, but if they are, then those are two guys that we'd have to seriously look at.

[rokimar]

per ESPN insider

 

• Plenty of GMs were on hand at the SEC tournament, with Theo Epstein, Kevin Towers and Kenny Williams all making appearances. Williams also showed up at the ACC tournament on Saturday. The White Sox are rumored to be leaning towards either Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham, who went 1-for-6 with a walk and three strikeouts in Georgia's two-and-out run, or Arizona State third baseman Brett Wallace for the No. 8 overall pick.

[Chisoxfn]

Brett Wallace is not near as good as some of the other 3rd/1B types. Smoak/Skipworth (if he falls you take him)/Hosmer all rank much higher. I figure Hosmer will not go to the Sox though given his agent and thats a shame because he's a better prospect than Wallace.

 

We can stratch Tanner Scheppes of the list as he has an injury which will probably knock him out of the 1st round. That doesn't mean whomever drafts him won't have to pony up first round money, but it does mean that if he's there in the 3rd I'll be doing my ornary b****ing if the Sox don't pick him up and offer him that sort of money (getting a potential top 10 pick in the 3rd round would be something you can't pass up on, not when you are a system as devoid of talent as the Sox are). That said, I'm sure Scheppes goes in the 2nd (if not the supplemental round).

 

One guy whose stock has slipped a lot is Kyle Gibson. He's a very lanky offensive prospect with a lot of good raw power. His body is still incredibly lean so as he fills out I wouldn't be surprised to see him add even more power. He has good bat speed but his stock has slipped with a poor season. The main flaw I see in his game is that his swing is a bit long, but he's got very good tools and may end up being there in the 3rd. Danks is another guy whose stock has slipped and in his case I don't know why. EVerytime I've seen him play I come off impressed. He has legit tools across the board and has the ability to be a .280+, 20 HR+, 20SB, good defense type of guy and to me those type of players don't grow on trees.

[Chisoxfn]

I will also say I'd rather take Castro (Stanford Catcher) than Brett Wallace. This would be a bit of a reach pick (most experts are having a tough time placing Castro) but his tools are worthy of going top 10. The problem is he is still considered very raw for a college player. Still, I'm not a major fan of Wallace, at least not at 8.

 

Aaron Hicks is the prep guy I love (aside from Skipworth/Beckham). In fact I like him more than Hosmer for the simple reason that Hicks is a better all around athlete. We are talking about a legit 5 tool kid. As a prepster his development will take a bit longer but good god he's got the ability to develop into a superstar and those are the type of guys I'd like to get with the #8 pick.

 

I look at Smoak and you could very well be talking about Texiera. In fact, I like Smoak more than Alvarez at this point, although Alvarez has better athletism and a bit more tools. Still, I could project Smoak to being a .300+ hitter, high OBP, massive slugging numbers, while playing very good defense at first. We are talking about the type of hitter that can carry your lineup. Alvarez can do the same thing but while playing tremendous defense at 3rd (still raw in the fielding aspect but he has good range for a 3B and a f***ing CANNON for an arm).

[BearSox]

There's no doubt Wallace is as good as a pure hitter as anyone in this draft, but if Smoak is there at 8, you take him. A switch hitter with 40 homerun potential doesn't grow on trees. Skipworth ain't dropping below the Marlins though, so I'll just scratch him off the list, and there's a good chance Smoak will be gone by 8 as well.

 

However, if Skipworth, Smoak, and Crow are gone by 8 (T-Beckham, Alvarez, Posey, Matusz are going to be long gone by 8 and we aren't going pay Hosmer who will probably be picked by the Royals anyway, so might as well leave them off the list), I have no problem with Wallace. I'm not high on Beckham like everyone else, but I'd be okay with such a pick. My main gripe about Beckham is the unlikely hood of him staying at SS, and inevitable move to 2B, a position where we already have quite of a few interesting guys (Richar, Getz, and perhaps Ramirez and Shelby).

 

As for the 3rd round, it looks like there is a possibility Jordan Danks will be there, and I'd gladly take him in the 3rd. We'd likely have to pony up 1st round money to sign him though.

[Chisoxfn]

There's no doubt Wallace is as good as a pure hitter as anyone in this draft, but if Smoak is there at 8, you take him. A switch hitter with 40 homerun potential doesn't grow on trees. Skipworth ain't dropping below the Marlins though, so I'll just scratch him off the list, and there's a good chance Smoak will be gone by 8 as well.

 

However, if Skipworth, Smoak, and Crow are gone by 8 (T-Beckham, Alvarez, Posey, Matusz are going to be long gone by 8 and we aren't going pay Hosmer who will probably be picked by the Royals anyway, so might as well leave them off the list), I have no problem with Wallace. I'm not high on Beckham like everyone else, but I'd be okay with such a pick. My main gripe about Beckham is the unlikely hood of him staying at SS, and inevitable move to 2B, a position where we already have quite of a few interesting guys (Richar, Getz, and perhaps Ramirez and Shelby).

 

As for the 3rd round, it looks like there is a possibility Jordan Danks will be there, and I'd gladly take him in the 3rd. We'd likely have to pony up 1st round money to sign him though.

Shelby projects more as a CF prospect or at least the Sox are hoping that is what happens. In addition, Getz/Richar are not guys you pass up on drafting a player for. Plus you should be talking about going best available anyway at 8 (Sox shouldn't be drafting on need unless a player grades out similarly). The Sox have an absolutely ridiculous need at the middle infield though and Beckham would fill that, plus he grades out a lot better than Wallace.

 

Wallace isn't even close to being graded as a top 8 prospect while Beckham is widely considered such. Plus he's a far more complete baseball player with much better skills. I can list another 5 to 10 guys I'd take at 8 over Wallace (both pitching/offensive prospects). Now if you narrow the list to collegiate players that list would get a lot smaller, but I don't think the Sox should just shy away from taking a prepster. If the best guy on the board is a prep player (Hicks/Skipworth/Hosmer) than you take him (all of those guys are better prospects than Wallace). Again, this doesn't mean they turn into better players, you never know what is going to happen, but a scouts job is to indicate who the better prospects are and than you play the percentages at that point (hoping you always are drafting as many good prospects as possible and at that point the %'s play out and if you've scouted right you've taken more good guys than most teams and as such you get more good prospects and major leaguers).

 

I will repeat this, I'd rather take Danks (who'd be a major reach at 8) than Wallace and I'm going to continue to say that this rumor tying the Sox to Wallace is BS. I can only hope that the reasoning behind such rumor is that Kenny tends to see a decent chunk of games in Arizona and because of that teams assume he's a big fan of Wallace (than again, he may have seen a lot of games and fallen in love with Wallace which leads to the club overdrafting here).

[Chisoxfn]

There's no doubt Wallace is as good as a pure hitter as anyone in this draft, but if Smoak is there at 8, you take him. A switch hitter with 40 homerun potential doesn't grow on trees. Skipworth ain't dropping below the Marlins though, so I'll just scratch him off the list, and there's a good chance Smoak will be gone by 8 as well.

 

However, if Skipworth, Smoak, and Crow are gone by 8 (T-Beckham, Alvarez, Posey, Matusz are going to be long gone by 8 and we aren't going pay Hosmer who will probably be picked by the Royals anyway, so might as well leave them off the list), I have no problem with Wallace. I'm not high on Beckham like everyone else, but I'd be okay with such a pick. My main gripe about Beckham is the unlikely hood of him staying at SS, and inevitable move to 2B, a position where we already have quite of a few interesting guys (Richar, Getz, and perhaps Ramirez and Shelby).

 

As for the 3rd round, it looks like there is a possibility Jordan Danks will be there, and I'd gladly take him in the 3rd. We'd likely have to pony up 1st round money to sign him though.

The Sox made him a very lucractive offer when we last drafted him and I have no doubt they'd do what is necessary to sign him (I don't think his demands would be completely ridiculous). I still say that as long as other teams are going above slot money than the Sox should be doing exactly that (i'm not saying be ridiculous, but if top talent is there, take it and throw the money out there...this system blows and the best way to fix it quickly is to throw a lot more money into the draft in the mid rounds because it will enable you to get an extra few top 3 round talents and a couple years of following that will really change the state of the farm system (combined with good scouting/coaching/player development).

[Ozzie Ball]

Nice to see Gordon Beckhams name pop up as a player we're considering, I've been campaigning for him for about a month now. He'd be a great pick in my opinion. Brett Wallace wouldn't be soo terrible, definately a reach at no. 8 but it's not like he doesn't have a good bat. I like Hicks a lot but with the way our farm is I think we need more of a "can't miss" type prospect and Hicks definately isn't that. I think a big college bat is definately the way we should go.

[Chisoxfn]

Okay, so if they want to go with the college bat and Smoak is off the board (I'm not going to even mention Posey/Alvarez as there is no way he'll be there at 8), than the debate would be between Alonso, Wallace & possibly Connor Gillespie.

 

I personally think Alonso has more upside but Wallace is a pretty damn solid all around hitter. I don't buy into Wallace being a 3rd baseman, despite him playing a good chunk of this season over there. I personally think both are a decent size drop off from Smoak. I'd probably lean more to Alonso because he has more power potential, imo, and if we are talking about a 1B I want a guy that can hit for power (they should also be able to hit for average).

 

Still, after Smoak & Beckham I think Castro is the next best collegiate position prospect (I put a premium on catching prospects though) and feel that the better value after Smoak is in the high school guys.

[Palehosefan]

I see too much Donny Lucy in Castro. Though my anger of drafting Lucy over Suzuki may still be affecting my judgement. I just don't see Castro as a top 10 talent. I think he's riding the coattails of Posey and Skipworth and doesn't belong in the same class.

 

I would take Alonso if the catchers and Smoak are gone.

[Chisoxfn]

I see too much Donny Lucy in Castro. Though my anger of drafting Lucy over Suzuki may still be affecting my judgement. I just don't see Castro as a top 10 talent. I think he's riding the coattails of Posey and Skipworth and doesn't belong in the same class.

 

I would take Alonso if the catchers and Smoak are gone.

I love Skipworth and keep hoping that somehow he falls to the Sox. I think he would be an absolutely tremendous pick. Aside from Wietters and Posey he is one of the best catching prospects to come out since Mauer (and that says something).

[Ozzie Ball]

Okay, so if they want to go with the college bat and Smoak is off the board (I'm not going to even mention Posey/Alvarez as there is no way he'll be there at 8), than the debate would be between Alonso, Wallace & possibly Connor Gillespie.

Well let's just say the first 7 picks are (in no specific order):

Alvarez

Beckham

Posey

Matusz

Crow

Beckham

Smoak

 

Then I'd probably scrap the "college bat only" mentality and go best player available which in my opinion would be Hosmer, but assuming they don't want to touch Hosmer I'd probably go for one of Skipworth, Yonder Alonso or Aaron Hicks. I don't think going the high school route would be bad it just wouldn't be ideal.

[Chisoxfn]

Well let's just say the first 7 picks are (in no specific order):

Alvarez

Beckham

Posey

Matusz

Crow

Beckham

Smoak

 

Then I'd probably scrap the "college bat only" mentality and go best player available which in my opinion would be Hosmer, but assuming they don't want to touch Hosmer I'd probably go for one of Skipworth, Yonder Alonso or Aaron Hicks. I don't think going the high school route would be bad it just wouldn't be ideal.

If Skipworth is there, I will be furious if the Sox pass up on him. He doesn't have unreasonable signing demands (Hosmer does, so I understand and won't blame the Sox for passing on him) yet he has very good tools. While he is a prep player, these type of catching prospect is very rare and the Sox would be foolish to pass on it. I understand people like taking the college player (safer route) but it is hard for me to compare the value in a stud catcher and a stud first baseman (how many more stud first baseman are there in the game than catchers).

 

However, given that route, I would say that I'll be excited with any of the three guys you listed as I think all are capable of turning into perennial all stars (and while none are guarantees to do such, the goal of your #8 pick should be to get a guy who is capable of being a perennial all star and whether its Skipworth/Alonso/Hicks you are talking about guys with serious tools).

[harfman77]

If Skipworth is there, I will be furious if the Sox pass up on him. He doesn't have unreasonable signing demands (Hosmer does, so I understand and won't blame the Sox for passing on him) yet he has very good tools. While he is a prep player, these type of catching prospect is very rare and the Sox would be foolish to pass on it. I understand people like taking the college player (safer route) but it is hard for me to compare the value in a stud catcher and a stud first baseman (how many more stud first baseman are there in the game than catchers).

 

However, given that route, I would say that I'll be excited with any of the three guys you listed as I think all are capable of turning into perennial all stars (and while none are guarantees to do such, the goal of your #8 pick should be to get a guy who is capable of being a perennial all star and whether its Skipworth/Alonso/Hicks you are talking about guys with serious tools).

 

It would likely come down to Alonso or Skipworth, but with the new rules there is not a lot of risk in taking Hosmer either, buys you an extra first round pick next year if he doesnt sign. Skipworth is intriguing because he is a catcher, but I am not sure he will be able to stay there in the pros. Alonso makes the most sense as he is the safest pick and is not far away from being able to contribute on the major league level, potentially a replacement for Thome in 2010.

[Chisoxfn]

Skipworth has shown all the ability/athleticism to stay as a catcher. In fact, most things I've read indicate that he grades out as an above average defensive catcher. If he were to move my estimate would be because a team wouldn't want to waste his ability behind the plate, although, personally I consider it a major premium to have a stud catcher who can hit.

 

Just my two cents. Plus I'm not a fan of Alonso. He is slow as dirt now and I can only see him getting slower.

[harfman77]

Skipworth has shown all the ability/athleticism to stay as a catcher. In fact, most things I've read indicate that he grades out as an above average defensive catcher. If he were to move my estimate would be because a team wouldn't want to waste his ability behind the plate, although, personally I consider it a major premium to have a stud catcher who can hit.

 

Just my two cents. Plus I'm not a fan of Alonso. He is slow as dirt now and I can only see him getting slower.

 

I think it is moot anyway because Skipworth will likely be gone, I am curious to see who is going to slip unexpectedly. It seems every year there is someone that falls and someone that jumps into the top ten out of nowhere. Hopefully that jump isnt Wallace to the Sox, I think we can do better with this pick. I would rather get Weeks than Wallace.